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TFW 2024 Timetable consultation.

Krokodil

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What normal passenger is going to assume that you have to ask the guard to phone ahead to get them to hold a connection?
Most normal passengers will ask the guard when they think late-running might result in a missed connection. There would be no point in holding connections just on the off-chance that someone might want them, better to only hold the ones you know that there are passengers for.
I really do wonder why TfW are delaying the start of the Liverpool to Cardiff service as I am sure it would be very popular.
Because there isn't enough capacity. Long signal sections between Chester and Shrewsbury for example.
 
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Jez

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What normal passenger is going to assume that you have to ask the guard to phone ahead to get them to hold a connection? I always assumed that at Shrewsbury and other interchange stations that they would have known the position of a late running train and would hold a connection knowing that people would be switching routes. Perhaps this explains why trains to west Wales have been despatched from Cardiff Central just as those from Manchester are arriving on an adjoining platform. Sounds like they just don’t care.

I really do wonder why TfW are delaying the start of the Liverpool to Cardiff service as I am sure it would be very popular.
I see it often on twitter (now X) when customers ask for trains to be held. They get told to ask the conductor or train manager. I can understand if its a different TOC but when it's 2 different TFW services there should be a bit more customer service and common sense used I think.

Regarding the Cardiff to Liverpool I think its more lack of rolling stock at the moment. We are still waiting for the 5 cars on every Cardiff to Manchester so there is little change of any extra services until that happens
 

L401CJF

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Shrewsbury platforms are pretty good at this sort of thing and for minor delays don't need to be asked, they know which services have people connecting and which ones generally don't. For example a BHI-AYW service arriving a few mins late into Shrewsbury so is likely to miss the Holyhead connection (usually from platform 3 outside the station, a connection of around 5mins), they're usually on the PA as soon as the doors are open telling people to make their way over asap and the dispatcher usually waits until no more people are heading that way before going over themselves.

If its a more substantial delay it needs to be authorised with control but its often a no, because it will have knock on delays for the return service from Holyhead. They wont hold Cambrian services usually as the times are too tight with passing points etc and knocks on delays to the whole Cambrian - but it's not unheard of (especially as said above if its an hour with a gap in the service).

Chester platforms are usually good at holding the Crewe shuttle service (departs at XX55 ish) for passengers from the LLD-MIA service (arrives around XX50). The same applies in reverse (arrival from Crewe booked around XX40 but if its late, the LLD service departs around XX50).
 

frodshamfella

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While that last sentence is obviously true, it's four decades since the partial closure of the Halton Curve meant that north Wales to Liverpool direct services were ended so "as they always did in the distant past" might be a better way of putting it!

Re-opening the curve to passenger trains was something of a no-brainer but, as always, securing even the smallest of investments outside the south-east of England was a hard grind for the Welsh Government and the Liverpool / Merseyside mayors. The promises of Llandudno, Shrewsbury & Cardiff services helped juice up the business case so it was good politics at the time and they will, no doubt, eventually happen.

Yes I know it was a long time ago, but the campaign to re open the Halton Curve has also been running for a very long time. It was nonsensical to close it to regular traffic in the first place. There was talk about giving Beechwood a station, this would be useful for that part of Runcorn that is not near any station.
 

Topological

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What normal passenger is going to assume that you have to ask the guard to phone ahead to get them to hold a connection? I always assumed that at Shrewsbury and other interchange stations that they would have known the position of a late running train and would hold a connection knowing that people would be switching routes. Perhaps this explains why trains to west Wales have been despatched from Cardiff Central just as those from Manchester are arriving on an adjoining platform. Sounds like they just don’t care.

I really do wonder why TfW are delaying the start of the Liverpool to Cardiff service as I am sure it would be very popular.
To be fair, you speak to the guard and they just say "no" to holding the connections at Cardiff. I would love to say I could not believe it when I got that answer the other week when RTT was showing my train arriving at the same minute as the Carmarthen (somewhere past that actually) was going to leave the adjoining platform. However, the guard just said no way because the delay would not be more than an hour (it was going to be almost an hour because the GWR comes 52 minutes after the TfW and the GWR is faster).

Worse is that the despatchers at Cardiff were laughing at people who stepped off the Manchester and looked frustrated.

Dont forget though, according to the Mk4 thread there is no market for cross-Cardiff connections and that the splitting of the service at Cardiff is the right thing to do.

Most normal passengers will ask the guard when they think late-running might result in a missed connection. There would be no point in holding connections just on the off-chance that someone might want them, better to only hold the ones you know that there are passengers for.

Because there isn't enough capacity. Long signal sections between Chester and Shrewsbury for example.
Is that true about long sections being a reason? Why was this not flagged before the service was advertised? When the work to shorten the signals was not booked in then presumably that could have led to TfW scrapping talk of a Liverpool Cardiff. This smacks of an excuse after the event, rather than the true reason.

IF it was planned today to shorten the signal sections how long would it take to bring in more services between Shrewsbury and Chester? That would be a good number to give the public so they can understand how far away the Liverpool to Cardiff is from starting.

Or is it just that TfW have not got the 197s they need?
 

frodshamfella

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To be fair, you speak to the guard and they just say "no" to holding the connections at Cardiff. I would love to say I could not believe it when I got that answer the other week when RTT was showing my train arriving at the same minute as the Carmarthen (somewhere past that actually) was going to leave the adjoining platform. However, the guard just said no way because the delay would not be more than an hour (it was going to be almost an hour because the GWR comes 52 minutes after the TfW and the GWR is faster).

Worse is that the despatchers at Cardiff were laughing at people who stepped off the Manchester and looked frustrated.

Dont forget though, according to the Mk4 thread there is no market for cross-Cardiff connections and that the splitting of the service at Cardiff is the right thing to do.


Is that true about long sections being a reason? Why was this not flagged before the service was advertised? When the work to shorten the signals was not booked in then presumably that could have led to TfW scrapping talk of a Liverpool Cardiff. This smacks of an excuse after the event, rather than the true reason.

IF it was planned today to shorten the signal sections how long would it take to bring in more services between Shrewsbury and Chester? That would be a good number to give the public so they can understand how far away the Liverpool to Cardiff is from starting.

Or is it just that TfW have not got the 197s they need?

I wonder really if Liverpool to Cardiff would be more useful that Holyhead to Cardiff, if there is such issues with bringing an extra service.
 

Jez

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I think at Cardiff they are very reluctant to hold connections due to how busy Cardiff is - basically if we ignore the Valley Lines/Cardiff Local platforms there is only 5 platforms (and you could argue that 0 is more limited use) with the amount of terminating and through trains there is very little margin for error.

However I do think when its literally a few minutes it should be held. Otherwise TFW are just increasing the amount of customer complaints and delay repay.

Some guards are very good at walking through the train checking on connections, others however are not.

At Swansea they are very good at holding connections but its a bit easier there as a lot less busy than Cardiff.

I wonder really if Liverpool to Cardiff would be more useful that Holyhead to Cardiff, if there is such issues with bringing an extra service.
I cant see them replacing Cardiff-Holyhead with Cardiff to Liverpool even though more through journeys would be made to Liverpool I think. TFW see the South to North Wales service as their flagship service along with Cardiff-Manchester.

Or is it just that TfW have not got the 197s they need?
Well TFW should have plenty of 197s when they are all in service. The Cambrian/Birmingham routes will all be covered with the remaining 2 cars to come into service. Plus when Maesteg/Ebbw Vale and Cheltenham moves to 231s there should be those allocated to do Pembroke Dock and Swanline.
 
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Starmill

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I really do wonder why TfW are delaying the start of the Liverpool to Cardiff service as I am sure it would be very popular.
Because running it costs money and uses up units, which are finite. Money which Transport for Wales as a government body doesn't have. Unlike the government in London, the Welsh Government has little option to raise new money through taxation or borrowing. It would be very popular, but even if every single train ran full it would still take money to subsidise it. They could find ways to reallocate the subsidy to this route but withdrawing services from less used routes in their entirety is politically toxic, so it'll simply have to wait.
 

Dai Corner

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Because running it costs money and uses up units, which are finite. Money which Transport for Wales as a government body doesn't have. Unlike the government in London, the Welsh Government has little option to raise new money through taxation or borrowing. It would be very popular, but even if every single train ran full it would still take money to subsidise it. They could find ways to reallocate the subsidy to this route but withdrawing services from less used routes in their entirety is politically toxic, so it'll simply have to wait.
Well, there's Income tax, business rates, land transaction tax, landfill tax and, indirectly, Council Tax.

It can indirectly borrow by leasing assets like trains or roads.

What it can't do which the UK Government can is create money out of thin air.
 

craigybagel

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Dont forget though, according to the Mk4 thread there is no market for cross-Cardiff connections and that the splitting of the service at Cardiff is the right thing to do.
Assuming you're referring to my points in that thread, I've clarified several times that I never said there was "no market" - just that it's an awful lot smaller than the market to & from Cardiff, and that providing extra services to cater for it provides less benefits than turning round the MKIVs at Cardiff. However I'm not going to carry on that tiresome argument here.
Is that true about long sections being a reason? Why was this not flagged before the service was advertised? When the work to shorten the signals was not booked in then presumably that could have led to TfW scrapping talk of a Liverpool Cardiff. This smacks of an excuse after the event, rather than the true reason.
It really is a reason. There are no signals between Wrexham and Gobowen. There's enough headway there for a 30 minute service, but there's not a lot of give in it, especially when you factor in the single track section North of Wrexham. As to whether it was factored into the bid or not, nobody is in a position to comment publicly on that.
IF it was planned today to shorten the signal sections how long would it take to bring in more services between Shrewsbury and Chester? That would be a good number to give the public so they can understand how far away the Liverpool to Cardiff is from starting.
I would imagine there aren't likely to be any extra services along there if Liverpool doesn't happen.
Or is it just that TfW have not got the 197s they need?
197s were ordered with the service in mind. It's likely we'll see other services have increased capacity instead.
I wonder really if Liverpool to Cardiff would be more useful that Holyhead to Cardiff, if there is such issues with bringing an extra service.
Quite possibly. Unfortunately however it would be politically unacceptable.
 

Starmill

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Well, there's Income tax, business rates, land transaction tax, landfill tax and, indirectly, Council Tax.

It can indirectly borrow by leasing assets like trains or roads.

What it can't do which the UK Government can is create money out of thin air.
There is almost no revenue left on the table through any of those avenues, which is why I said very little. Ministers and Local Authority boards have already pushed them up near as far as they could practically go. Any extra money that became available through additional Westminster grant or revenues ahead of forecast would be very unlikely to be go to healthcare or elsewhere and not to transport.

There are a few novel approaches that haven't been tried and tested like workplace parking levies and overnight accommodation duty, or even increases in TfW such as Penalty Fares from £20 to £100 for travel from stations in Wales. But some of these would need the Senedd to legislate and in any case none of this is really going to shift the dial as it's just tinkering money.

Assuming you're referring to my points in that thread, I've clarified several times that I never said there was "no market" - just that it's an awful lot smaller than the market to & from Cardiff, and that providing extra services to cater for it provides less benefits than turning round the MKIVs at Cardiff. However I'm not going to carry on that tiresome argument here.
At the end of the day the change is done now and with the benefit of the forthcoming evening through service to Swansea, it's a good enough service of through trains. It's not perfect, and some of the connections long term should be able to be improved, but obviously not for a while until the fleet situation is a little more stable and the speed changes are arranged.

TfW procured a study last year from a consultant about the effects of increased permissible speed between Crewe and Newport on timetable structure too. At least they're looking into it, even if the answers aren't exactly what we might want.
 
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louis97

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As to whether it was factored into the bid or not, nobody is in a position to comment publicly on that.
Its irrelevant really, bid world is a different world. It may work in the bid but that doesn't mean it will work in reality.
 

Dai Corner

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There is almost no revenue left on the table through any of those avenues, which is why I said very little. Ministers and Local Authority boards have already pushed them up near as far as they could practically go. Any extra money that became available through additional Westminster grant or revenues ahead of forecast would be very unlikely to be go to healthcare or elsewhere and not to transport.
I disagree, especially on Income Tax which the Scottish Government has increased. Plaid Cymru, who are in a 'cooperation agreement' with Welsh Labour, have often called for tax increases.

The railways and health service both received more funding in the last Welsh Government budget. Off-topic for this thread, but Ken Skates, the new (returned) Transport Minister will want his 'transformative, world-class' Metro to be delivered and I expect him to argue strongly for more funding rather than service cuts if the hoped-for increases in ridership and revenue don't materialise.
 

Starmill

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I disagree, especially on Income Tax which the Scottish Government has increased. Plaid Cymru, who are in a 'cooperation agreement' with Welsh Labour, have often called for tax increases.

The railways and health service both received more funding in the last Welsh Government budget. Off-topic for this thread, but Ken Skates, the new (returned) Transport Minister will want his 'transformative, world-class' Metro to be delivered and I expect him to argue strongly for more funding rather than service cuts if the hoped-for increases in ridership and revenue don't materialise.
You're mixing up changing the rates taxes are set at and the revenues that can be raised from so doing. The latter is all that matters for present purposes. But a further discussion of where the Welsh Government could find extra funding with more devolved power is very far off topic for this thread.

All that really matters is that Transport for Wales has the money it has, and it's up to them to spend it as best the can. They've chosen to keep spending money on running litte-used services on the Conwy Valley and Heart of Wales, and retaining through services between the North Wales Coast and Cardiff. That means choosing to defer the extra services on other lines, and on the through services between Liverpool and Llandudno.
 

Dai Corner

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You're mixing up changing the rates taxes are set at and the revenues that can be raised from so doing. The latter is all that matters for present purposes. But a further discussion of where the Welsh Government could find extra funding with more devolved power is very far off topic for this thread.

All that really matters is that Transport for Wales has the money it has, and it's up to them to spend it as best the can. They've chosen to keep spending money on running litte-used services on the Conwy Valley and Heart of Wales, and retaining through services between the North Wales Coast and Cardiff. That means choosing to defer the extra services on other lines, and on the through services between Liverpool and Llandudno.
For the record, and this will be all I say in the subject, 2p on Welsh Income Tax (cancelling out the 2p reduction in National Insurance for employees) would raise more than TfW's entire annual revenue and capital budget.

I'd agree that Llandudno-Liverpool would probably incur smaller losses per passenger than Llandudno - Blaenau Ffestiniog and is arguably a better use of the money.
 

craigybagel

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At the end of the day the change is done now and with the benefit of the forthcoming evening through service to Swansea, it's a good enough service of through trains. It's not perfect, and some of the connections long term should be able to be improved, but obviously not for a while until the fleet situation is a little more stable and the speed changes are arranged.

TfW procured a study last year from a consultant about the effects of increased permissible speed between Crewe and Newport on timetable structure too. At least they're looking into it, even if the answers aren't exactly what we might want.
And the first bit of speed increases have already gone live. The Proposed timetable sees a more regular stopping pattern for the MKIV services (Crewe - Shrewsbury - Ludlow then all stops except Pontypool) for most services, which hopefully when combined with the other planned speed increases (Shrewsbury - Onibury) we'll be able to see better connections.

If there's other permissable speed increases that can be made that would be a further fantastic improvement, but I'm struggling to think of much simple (ie cheap) things that can be put in.
Its irrelevant really, bid world is a different world. It may work in the bid but that doesn't mean it will work in reality.
Very true. Whatever the plan was, this is the plan we now have to work with.
 

Krokodil

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To be fair, you speak to the guard and they just say "no" to holding the connections at Cardiff
Probably because they know it's pointless to ask. I once got Avanti to agree to a five minute hold - that surprised even their own staff.

Council Tax
Have you seen how much many Welsh councils are already increasing it by?

197s were ordered with the service in mind.
Having two units taken out to cover the Bidstons doesn't help.

I disagree, especially on Income Tax which the Scottish Government has increased
Something which could harm economic growth.
 

Dai Corner

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Have you seen how much many Welsh councils are already increasing it by?
More than they need have if that extra £125m to make up for the railway's revenue shortfall had been given to them instead.
Something which could harm economic growth
On the other hand, better transport, education and healthcare should lead to higher economic growth.

But I'm heading off topic again. Sorry.
 

Topological

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Thankfully there is no taxation varying powers to pay for the TfW shambles - can we please have 2p per pound to pay for 175s to sit in sidings would not go down too well.

The 175s are gone now, but that is not how the popular press works. It is fact to say there are still lease payments and it is also fact that there are overcrowded services, so the "opinion" that combines the empty trains and overcrowding would not be too far-fetched to print.

It would be best now if attention were just devoted to getting what we have working better and being honest that the original expansion was too much. Maybe they can tell the truth after the General Election.
 

Lurcheroo

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It would be best now if attention were just devoted to getting what we have working better and being honest that the original expansion was too much. Maybe they can tell the truth after the General Election.
Welsh Gov TFW have said that the plans laid out in the franchise bid by private TFW, were far too ambitious and should have been done over a much longer period of time.

I’ll see if I can dig a link out. Ultimately nobody could have known the effects of the pandemic.


Quote from James Price:
He issued a stark assessment: "If you were to say to me: 'What's the biggest failure in planning on all of this,' I would say it's trying to replace everything in three years... it should have been done gradually over a 10 year period."
 
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craigybagel

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Having two units taken out to cover the Bidstons doesn't help.
True, but in theory that should be only temporary. TfW haven't given up on the 230s yet. And one of those units is cancelled out already by the Crewe - Shrewsbury local staying as 153s instead of a 197.
 

Jez

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True, but in theory that should be only temporary. TfW haven't given up on the 230s yet. And one of those units is cancelled out already by the Crewe - Shrewsbury local staying as 153s instead of a 197.

I said all.along that Crewe would need to continue to have 153s but was told I was wrong but it appears I was correct after all
 

SuperLuke2334

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I said all.along that Crewe would need to continue to have 153s but was told I was wrong but it appears I was correct after all
It was only decided that Crewe would retain 153s very recently, before that the plan was to try and maintain at Landore so only Carmarthen and Shrewsbury needed competency. Now they need to be maintained at Crewe, those crew will need to retain competent.
 

Jez

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It was only decided that Crewe would retain 153s very recently, before that the plan was to try and maintain at Landore so only Carmarthen and Shrewsbury needed competency. Now they need to be maintained at Crewe, those crew will need to retain competent.
Which is exactly what I predicted all along
 

fishwomp

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Why is the VoG line 2tph being deferred again? Doesn't seem like it should be very difficult to achieve and this deferment is not helping the WG owned Cardiff Airport's accessibility.
Cardiff Airport's problems are not VoG related. I hadn't realized how poorly used it was but for reading an earlier comment and looking it up: Bristol gets 10M passengers a year - no rail connection. A 3x per hour 25 minute bus ride.

Cardiff gets 1M passengers a year. There are 8 flights a day
- 1x to Edinburgh (EMB-145, 50 seater - would fit in a class 153 "plane replacement train" given the climate emergency?).
- 2x to Amsterdam (80 seater EMB-175)
- 1x to Belfast (80 seater ATR72)
- 1x Dublin (b737)
- 3 x b737s to Malaga, Alicante, Faro.
(of those, the inbound from Lanzarote arrives 23:50 long after the last train)

Or put this another way, if more trains stopped at Rhoose, why? There are already 18 services stopping in each direction - there are many arriving when there are no planes to catch or arrive from for hours. I wouldn't be surprised if most passengers at "Rhoose International Airport" were just local commuter/ordinary daily rail traffic.

The airport is needs £10M subsidy per year apparently too, or £10 per passenger / £20 for a return trip. The Gerallt Gymro service is apparently £4M subsidy a year, so the airport is probably better value than that - but neither make sense.

Let the airport come back with a strategy to grow and get the services, and the rail service will get used - it's a pretty good service already.
 
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Cardiff Airport's problems are not VoG related. I hadn't realized how poorly used it was but for reading an earlier comment and looking it up: Bristol gets 10M passengers a year - no rail connection. A 3x per hour 25 minute bus ride.

Cardiff gets 1M passengers a year. There are 8 flights a day
- 1x to Edinburgh (EMB-145, 50 seater - would fit in a class 153 "plane replacement train" given the climate emergency?).
- 2x to Amsterdam (80 seater EMB-175)
- 1x to Belfast (80 seater ATR72)
- 1x Dublin (b737)
- 3 x b737s to Malaga, Alicante, Faro.
(of those, the inbound from Lanzarote arrives 23:50 long after the last train)

Or put this another way, if more trains stopped at Rhoose, why? There are already 18 services stopping in each direction - there are many arriving when there are no planes to catch or arrive from for hours. I wouldn't be surprised if most passengers at "Rhoose International Airport" were just local commuter/ordinary daily rail traffic.

The airport is needs £10M subsidy per year apparently too, or £10 per passenger / £20 for a return trip. The Gerallt Gymro service is apparently £4M subsidy a year, so the airport is probably better value than that - but neither make sense.

Let the airport come back with a strategy to grow and get the services, and the rail service will get used - it's a pretty good service already.
You've answered your own question there when you mention 3 x 25 min buses per hour to Bristol Airport, there is a very poor bus to CWL that takes nigh on 2 hours to get there. There is an element of build it and they'll come with transport, and an hourly train is not a viable option for most air passengers, imagine you'd just missed one, it's just not a frequent enough service at present to be an alternative to the car.

2 tph would also offer a much better service for the rest of the line and there are a lot of 231s to provide rolling stock.
 
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Which doesn't detract from the point being made, which was that Cardiff Airport is little-used anyway. No frequency enhancement is going to change that.
That's a strange view from a rail forum user. Having better transport links would make the airport more attractive to passengers and airlines, and it definitely needs every bit of help it can get.
 

fishwomp

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You've answered your own question there when you mention 3 x 25 min buses per hour to Bristol Airport, there is a very poor bus to CWL that takes nigh on 2 hours to get there.
Why not use the train - it takes 1h15 including the shuttle bus to airport front door, and is hourly.. , the bus is almost never going to be faster than waiting for the next train. A taxi for the 12 miles from central Cardiff also won't cost much more than public transport if travelling in a group of 3-4.

So, nope, public transport is not the cause of Cardiff's woes. It has a large population nearby, all west Wales, Swansea and the Port Talbot/Neath/Bridgend/Newport etc catchment. Bristol is nabbing this with a weaker catchment area.

There is an element of build it and they'll come with transport, and an hourly train is not a viable option for most air passengers, imagine you'd just missed one, it's just not a frequent enough service at present to be an alternative to the car.
Plenty of other airport connections have this problem but seem to get a lot of traffic (eg. how many services an hour between Bimingham Airport and Banbury/Oxford/Reading.. - and I for one use it and there are plenty of others doing so!!)
2 tph would also offer a much better service for the rest of the line and there are a lot of 231s to provide rolling stock.
If necessary it should be considered against all the other TFW priorities - maybe they could do some sort of "review of shape of future services" and publish it for consulation/feedback? :)

That's a strange view from a rail forum user. Having better transport links would make the airport more attractive to passengers and airlines, and it definitely needs every bit of help it can get.
No. It's a good view. There's a fixed amount of money, unless you are bringing in new revenue - and without the extra money, you're taking it from another place.
 

Topological

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A more joined-up plan would have used Filton Aerodrome as a larger South West airport hub: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_Filton_Airport

Filton Airport or Filton Aerodrome (IATA: FZO, ICAO: EGTG) was a private airport in Filton and Patchway, within South Gloucestershire, 4 NM (7.4 km; 4.6 mi)[1] north of Bristol, England.

As is Bristol Airport stays non-accessible by rail to the south and Cardiff is stuck competing from its own poorly accessible location.

The Filton ship sailed a long time ago now but it reminds us that trying to focus on "Welsh" solutions need not be the best plan.
 

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