CAF have already altered the 195 to add unit end gangways for WMR, they could have end doors too. They would probably be a different class number but basically the same.
I think the class 397 'Nova 2' trains for TPE are from the same 'Civity' family as the 195s, so CAF have all the necessary 'components' (doors at vehicle ends, unit end gangways and diesel engines) for a suitable train; they just need to put all those elements together.
I don't think W&B need 5 coach long distance sets, most extra capacity will be provided by extra services such as hourly Holyhead-Cardiff and services on the Halton Curve to Liverpool.
Neither of those will do anything to increase capacity between Cardiff and Swansea, between Shrewsbury and Manchester or between Chester and Manchester, all of which see ATW's class 175s rather heavily loaded at times (I think, I don't have personal experience of the latter). In terms of loadings, from my own observations (mostly between Cardiff and Swansea) most Swansea-Manchester trains ought to be 4-car with a few 5-car diagrams and possibly a handful (or less) of 3-car diagrams. That, or use something with unit-end gangways and split so that different parts of the route have different train lengths.
If the new operator was to go for LHCS though, I wouldn't be surprised if Eversholt are keen to ensure their mark 4 fleet is leased out and will offer a cheaper rate than new mark 5s.
2 coach 175s are best being relegated to South West Wales and the HoW line. I would be surprised if sufficient plugs and USB ports could be installed to meet modern demands and the lack of end gangways to enable easy multiple working is a huge disadvantage.
I agree that the 175/0 fleet (the 2-car units) should be taken off mainline duties, unless permanently coupled to form 4-car sets. Assuming they remain as 2-car units, I think they should be used on:
- Conwy Valley Line (2 diagrams for a service every 2hrs); I think Chester is the nearest maintainance depot (unless Holyhead has one) to the Conwy Valley
- Cardiff - Carmarthen/Milford Haven/Fishguard express services via the Swansea District Line (2-car on some diagrams 3-car on others)
- Heart Of Wales line (possibly shared with class 156s, with 175s on limited-stop services and 156s on stoppers)
Rail improvements on Wales network to 'take some time' -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-44109482
No surprise there; new build rolling stock never comes quickly and infrustructure works take even longer. Really this should have been forseen 15 years ago rather than letting a no-growth franchise which ends so soon before the TSI-PRM deadline.
Let's count how many times we hear Skates and Jones use the words "world class", "transformative" and "step change" in announcements or press releases about the winning bidder, without actually giving any detail.
That would also be no surprise; it is standard procedure on DfT-let franchises to announce the winning bidder but near-zero detail on their plans until a 'standstill period' has passed. That said:
is this another thing that is being guarded with MI5 levels of secrecy?
The only way we will get details on the day of the announcement is if the bidders have already been notified of which has won but are sworn to secrecy during the 'standstill period' with a public announcement only made at the end of that period.
A surprise would be anything bar Class 158's on the Cambrian.
If brand-new a new long-distance DMU fleet happens, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Machynlleth was to be the home of the new units. Fitting ETCS is not likely to be as much of a hassle on a brand new train that is designed for it compared to retro-fitting an ex-BR fleet. A new fleet with some 3-car units as well as 2-car ones would be useful for the Cambrian (2-cars isn't always enough west of Machynlleth, but 4-cars will mostly be overkill). That way, the Machynlleth fleet could be slightly bigger than the existing class 158 ETCS fleet allowing the Holyhead-Wrexham-Birmingham through services to continue while providing the necessary extra units to provide a full hourly Aberystwyth-Birmingham service. The 158s could then be paired up to form 4-car trains out of Manchester, perhaps splitting to serve both Holyhead and Llandudno on the north Wales route, or at Crewe or Shrewsbury late in the evening with only one unit going through to Cardiff in the dead of night.
