Wales looks at bus franchising

[RT4038]

https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2023-08/ma-lw-1901-23-eng.pdf

https://amanwy.blogspot.com/2024/02/transport-for-wales-20.html

Both of these are long (too long to reproduce here!) but are very illuminating reads - suffice it to say there is a clear and strong vision for TfW to be an integrated organisation going forward.

Regrettably, it seems that the WG's strategy (and indeed, only viable strategy) is to use a small number of bus specialists to multi-skill existing rail staff to take on additional responsibilities, with a resultant lack of understanding of bus operations. This is because they inherited little in the way of bus expertise when they were created; some Welsh Government civil servants and Traveline employees. For joint rail and bus employees, the rail side of their work could receive more attention due to comfort through familiarity, the greater sexiness of rail projects and the greater funds available for rail.

They'd likely have trouble hiring bus expertise for the following reasons:

1. Bus companies are very slim now so not as much talent is available in general, and many are reluctant to invest in new talent
2. The last of the NBC and early dereg personnel are ageing out of the industry
3. Competition for talent is high due to multiple franchises coming on stream at once
4. Wales is not an attractive place to live for many people.

Lets not be unduly pessimistic. Whatever your views of the politics of franchising, they can hardly do any worse at 'integration' than now. As you point out, for various reasons the bus companies do not have much talent available now, so are not doing much proactive really and are hamstrung by working within the current economic and legislative framework. Franchising changes that framework, and needs to be given a chance. TfW can always hire some Swiss talent, who everybody says are the masters of this endeavour. (until the bill comes in possibly?)

 

[markymark2000]

Lets not be unduly pessimistic. Whatever your views of the politics of franchising, they can hardly do any worse at 'integration' than now. As you point out, for various reasons the bus companies do not have much talent available now, so are not doing much proactive really and are hamstrung by working within the current economic and legislative framework. Franchising changes that framework, and needs to be given a chance. TfW can always hire some Swiss talent, who everybody says are the masters of this endeavour. (until the bill comes in possibly?)

You only have to look at the track record of how TrawsCymru buses are running to see the lack of care for integration. I remind everyone, the T2 got rerouted recently to avoid the bus/train connection at Porthmadog and there were attempts to get the T3 taken out of Ruabon station and avoid the interchange at Wrexham Central with them claiming the walk from the football ground to Wrexham General classes as an interchange. This rerouting got stopped by Wrexham Council! What does it say about TFW and TrawsCymru if Wrexham Council (who aren't exactly known for being pro bus) are the ones putting a stop to stupid reroutings?

T3 bus service reverses decision to remove key stops following passenger concerns

The Wrexham T3 bus service by Transport for Wales has reinstated Maelor Hospital and Ruabon Station following concerns.

www.leaderlive.co.uk

However, following the concerns, the Transport for Wales spokesperson said: "Following the objection by Wrexham Borough Council to the withdrawal of buses by Transport for Wales from Ruabon Railway Station and Wrexham Maelor Hospital these locations have been reinstated.

I think that Scott Pearson, former MD of Newport Bus put it best regarding TFW.

Transport for Wales: 'Not the answer for country's buses' - routeone

Transport for Wales is set to gain greater control of the country's buses - but that is not the best thing for those services, says one MD.

www.route-one.net

Unfortunately, we have an organisation that has been set up as the transport delivery agent for the Welsh Government. It operates rail services and is now looking to take over bus. In theory that sounds OK.

But after working with Transport for Wales (TfW) on many projects, it has become abundantly clear that it is a money pit of either very expensive consultants, or a bus team that has no buses to control – and simply cannot do so until the Welsh Government gets its bus services bill through, which may be in 2025/26.

Those employed in the main have no or little bus industry knowledge. That comes across very clearly. So why doesn’t TfW properly and transparently collaborate with the bus industry to solve the main problems facing it, with outcomes that suit the group that is left out of many decisions: The passenger?

 

[Bletchleyite]

You only have to look at the track record of how TrawsCymru buses are running to see the lack of care for integration. I remind everyone, the T2 got rerouted recently to avoid the bus/train connection at Porthmadog and there were attempts to get the T3 taken out of Ruabon station and avoid the interchange at Wrexham Central with them claiming the walk from the football ground to Wrexham General classes as an interchange. This rerouting got stopped by Wrexham Council! What does it say about TFW and TrawsCymru if Wrexham Council (who aren't exactly known for being pro bus) are the ones putting a stop to stupid reroutings?

When has any commercial bus company in the UK ever cared about quality interchange? If they have I've not experienced it.

It's a cultural issue across the entire industry, both its public and private elements.

 

[markymark2000]

When has any commercial bus company in the UK ever cared about quality interchange? If they have I've not experienced it.

It happens. Though I agree it's rare. They don't preach they want integration though. If you're going to keep banging on about one ticket one network and all that stuff, you've got to follow that through with actions. Talk is cheap.

Same as how Lee Waters said about merging schools and local service.

(Recent quote but he has said it before this)

Written Statement: Learner Travel Recommendations Report 2023 (14 March 2024) | GOV.WALES

Lee Waters, Deputy Minister for Climate Change

www.gov.wales

Where possible, school transport will be rolled into the scheduled bus service. This will help avoid expensive duplication, allow the investment needed in modern buses, that can carry disabled people, and extend bus coverage for the whole community.

However the TrawsCymru changes meant an additional school bus needed for the T3 between Barmouth and Doll (route 500 on Lloyds website) another bus to cover changes on the T2/28 between Mach and Aberystwyth (route YP04 on Lloyds website). Due to changes on the Gwynedd network as part of the 'thou shall only have a bus if there are connections' commitments, (not an official thing but it is how the buses are being operated), another school bus has been set up for Harlech (route 541 on Lloyds website). That's before you look at the fact students on the T3C route now have to go from Doll, up to Corwen to then travel back down on the T3C. All because TFW refused to make TrawsCymru accommodate schools.

Say one thing, do another. The actions of TFW and Welsh Labour says everything. All the gear, no idea but full of lies.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

You only have to look at the track record of how TrawsCymru buses are running to see the lack of care for integration. I remind everyone, the T2 got rerouted recently to avoid the bus/train connection at Porthmadog and there were attempts to get the T3 taken out of Ruabon station and avoid the interchange at Wrexham Central with them claiming the walk from the football ground to Wrexham General classes as an interchange. This rerouting got stopped by Wrexham Council! What does it say about TFW and TrawsCymru if Wrexham Council (who aren't exactly known for being pro bus) are the ones putting a stop to stupid reroutings?

You think that the T2 was re-routed purely to avoid the potential for integration at Porthmadog? Surely, by that rationale, why did TfW then route the T22 to serve it? Perhaps there's another reason like ensuring the connections at Dolgellau taking precedence?

A more obvious example of where services don't link into rail (and they could do) is in places like Newtown where the T4/T12 don't go near the station, whilst in Welshpool, the T12 gets close in one direction.

 

[markymark2000]

You think that the T2 was re-routed purely to avoid the potential for integration at Porthmadog? Surely, by that rationale, why did TfW then route the T22 to serve it? Perhaps there's another reason like ensuring the connections at Dolgellau taking precedence?

Nothing stopped the T2 remaining on its current routing. No one asked for it to go via Criccieth, it was sent that way purely to extract revenue from the very popular Caelloi 3 (same as how they extract revenue from various other commercial routes). Also worth noting the T2 coped fine before September when it ran via Tremadog and Criccieth and maintained connections still. I see no reason why the T2 couldn't have kept serving the train station and it wouldn't have had a detrimental effect on the service.

A more obvious example of where services don't link into rail (and they could do) is in places like Newtown where the T4/T12 don't go near the station, whilst in Welshpool, the T12 gets close in one direction.

Of course there is another 2 examples. Bit more long standing examples rather than more recent ones.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Nothing stopped the T2 remaining on its current routing. No one asked for it to go via Criccieth, it was sent that way purely to extract revenue from the very popular Caelloi 3 (same as how they extract revenue from various other commercial routes). Also worth noting the T2 coped fine before September when it ran via Tremadog and Criccieth and maintained connections still. I see no reason why the T2 couldn't have kept serving the train station and it wouldn't have had a detrimental effect on the service.

That they routed the T22 via the station shows that they were maintaining the connection. I am fine with giving the Welsh Government (in all its guises) a shoeing for when they do something stupid... Cardiff bus station relocation being the text book example. However, to say that a reroute of one service is clear evidence of an anti-integration agenda when they actually replaced it with another seems somewhat far fetched.

Same with the non-connection issues at Blaenau which clearly highlights an anti-integration bias in some peoples' minds. The reality was more prosaic - they were replacing another service that also didn't connect with rail. They could've tried to amend that but trying to line up coordinate a 2 hourly bus service with a 3 hourly train service is tricky in itself; trying to do so would also necessitate the changes to the T2 and then impacts the T3. So it's not a conspiracy...

As for no-one asking it to go via Criccieth.... is this your opinion or something you know via an FOI request?

 

[Mwanesh]

Franchising only works for the big towns. What about the Mid Wales areas like Welshpool who will actually operate the services

 

[anthony263]

Last today driving for adventure travels taffs Well depot on the 600 Aberdare to pontypridd service. One route lost to stagecoach or first.

Rather sad however I can see us having some routes back.
I too wonder how this franchising will work. I'm very concerned with letting politicians try to run bus networks

 

[WAB]

Franchising only works for the big towns. What about the Mid Wales areas like Welshpool who will actually operate the services

The same operators as now, most likely. It's not like there is much competition in North and Mid Wales. It is likely to mean a more central approach to network planning, fares and information, with a better perspective on where subsidy is best used. It may also unlock additional WelshGov funding, given even a proportion of the spending of Welsh trains.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The same operators as now, most likely. It's not like there is much competition in North and Mid Wales. It is likely to mean a more central approach to network planning, fares and information, with a better perspective on where subsidy is best used. It may also unlock additional WelshGov funding, given even a proportion of the spending of Welsh trains.

Depends how they elect to let franchises. Remember the carnage of the Powys tender package when that went to Veolia and effectively removed most of the independents.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Depends how they elect to let franchises. Remember the carnage of the Powys tender package when that went to Veolia and effectively removed most of the independents.

Given that TrawsCymru is pretty much entirely run by independents I'm not sure I'd worry.

 

[WAB]

Depends how they elect to let franchises. Remember the carnage of the Powys tender package when that went to Veolia and effectively removed most of the independents.

I suppose you could centralise at a small number of depots to make it all worthwhile, whilst allowing for some divvying up.

In North Wales, I estimate seven centralised depots would have sufficient boards to attract a bidder for each. I think TfW would need to think about maybe bundling them into at least twos and probably threes to make it worthwhile for bidders to engage with a franchising process which even done in an economic manner costs a fair bit of money.

1. Bangor
2. Llandudno
3. Wrexham
4. Rhyl
5. Porthmadog
6. Llangefni
7. Dolgellau

Would be interested to know if a big player would be able to keep costs down in the same way that the smaller firms do. The cost difference might make WelshGov baulk!

Given that TrawsCymru is pretty much entirely run by independents I'm not sure I'd worry.

That's only because they're already in the area doing other work. If all routes were up for grabs, I suspect there'd be more of a mix. Firms like Lloyd's and Llew Jones probably have the size and capital to engage, but firms like Calleoi probably not. You also have to consider how new entrants would enter the market - how they'd get service bus expertise (i.e. they'd need to be existing companies, probably more medium and large).

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Given that TrawsCymru is pretty much entirely run by independents I'm not sure I'd worry.

As @WAB states, there's every reason to think that depending HOW the franchises are let, it would favour larger groups rather than independents.

We've seen that in Greater Manchester, in Dorset, in Powys that when let as a package, it naturally favours the larger businesses and excludes smaller firms. Only in Cornwall, where Go Ahead has a number of partners, have we seen smaller firms get a piece of the action.

In fact, we've just seen the latest tender results in Wales and the major winners were... First, Stagecoach and Newport Transport. It even resulted in Richard Bros (faced with losing work) registering parts of T5 commercially.

I suppose you could centralise at a small number of depots to make it all worthwhile, whilst allowing for some divvying up.

In North Wales, I estimate seven centralised depots would have sufficient boards to attract a bidder for each. I think TfW would need to think about maybe bundling them into at least twos and probably threes to make it worthwhile for bidders to engage with a franchising process which even done in an economic manner costs a fair bit of money.

1. Bangor
2. Llandudno
3. Wrexham
4. Rhyl
5. Porthmadog
6. Llangefni
7. Dolgellau

Would be interested to know if a big player would be able to keep costs down in the same way that the smaller firms do. The cost difference might make WelshGov baulk!


That's only because they're already in the area doing other work. If all routes were up for grabs, I suspect there'd be more of a mix. Firms like Lloyd's and Llew Jones probably have the size and capital to engage, but firms like Calleoi probably not. You also have to consider how new entrants would enter the market - how they'd get service bus expertise (i.e. they'd need to be existing companies, probably more medium and large).

Were packages to be split as you say, then you'd have to ask certain questions. Like how is it that smaller firms keep costs down? As well as margin, they are able to ratchet down operational costs but, if staff are under TUPE and there are quality requirements in terms of age and specification of vehicles, then you begin to level the playing field.

Larger firms have larger central overheads, granted, but they do (as you say) have access to cheaper capital, greater purchasing power etc.

 

[Dai Corner]

In fact, we've just seen the latest tender results in Wales and the major winners were... First, Stagecoach and Newport Transport. It even resulted in Richard Bros (faced with losing work) registering parts of T5 commercially.

Although the biggest loser was probably ComfortDelGro subsidiary Adventure Travel which is closing its Taffs Well depot as a result.

I wonder what will happen to cross-border services if firms aren't allowed to operate local bus services in Wales without a franchise?

 

[Mwanesh]

Although the biggest loser was probably ComfortDelGro subsidiary Adventure Travel which is closing its Taffs Well depot as a result.

I wonder what will happen to cross-border services if firms aren't allowed to operate local bus services in Wales without a franchise?

What will happen to the 2 municipals left. Cardiff and Newport. We can't have one rule for the country and one for the council companies.

 

[markymark2000]

Franchising only works for the big towns. What about the Mid Wales areas like Welshpool who will actually operate the services

Given almost everything in that area is tendered now, I don't think it would make much difference if the contracts are let out as single routes as it would become a case of the existing firms just getting new vehicles and livery which would be added to the contract cost. If it was a larger franchise, probably be a bigger firm with a depot. Or, it is a Welsh Govt aim to kind of eradicate private companies and so perhaps a Powys municipal.

1. Bangor
2. Llandudno
3. Wrexham
4. Rhyl
5. Porthmadog
6. Llangefni
7. Dolgellau

Which of these would run the Chester 3, 4/X4, 10/10A? TrawsCymru T8 wouldn't really work in any of these either. Who is going to run the P&O Lloyds Flintshire stuff as most of that goes nowhere near any of these depots.

That's only because they're already in the area doing other work. If all routes were up for grabs, I suspect there'd be more of a mix. Firms like Lloyd's and Llew Jones probably have the size and capital to engage, but firms like Calleoi probably not. You also have to consider how new entrants would enter the market - how they'd get service bus expertise (i.e. they'd need to be existing companies, probably more medium and large).

You'd also have to consider that the various routes, Lloyds already operated. T3 was the X94. T2 operated as another route number. T28 was the X28. T12 replaced Lloyds X85. Some of it has been Lloyd working with TrawsCymru too as parts of the T2/T3/T28/T12 are/were commercial. I know they were, not sure if they'd still are. Still though, if it was commercial, Lloyds will want to get their work.

I wonder what will happen to cross-border services if firms aren't allowed to operate local bus services in Wales without a franchise?

Theres not many cross border routes to/from Wales that aren't already controlled or funded in some way by Welsh councils or run almost entirely within Wales. Only a few that I can think of which would be Merseytravel 811, Stagecoach 5 (Chester-Wrexham), Tanat Valley 588 (under Shropshire Council contract), Stagecoach routes into Monmouth. There may be a few more but you get the idea. In these instances, you'd hope they'd have the sense to have to have a permit scheme like London Service Permits.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Given almost everything in that area is tendered now, I don't think it would make much difference if the contracts are let out as single routes as it would become a case of the existing firms just getting new vehicles and livery which would be added to the contract cost. If it was a larger franchise, probably be a bigger firm with a depot. Or, it is a Welsh Govt aim to kind of eradicate private companies and so perhaps a Powys municipal.

That's my point in that single routes wouldn't be much of a change. If they're large packages, then that will play into the hands of larger national/multi-national players as we've seen before in Powys, as well as Dorset and Greater Manchester.

I don't think there's an aim to eradicate private companies though - just a desire for control.

Which of these would run the Chester 3, 4/X4, 10/10A? TrawsCymru T8 wouldn't really work in any of these either. Who is going to run the P&O Lloyds Flintshire stuff as most of that goes nowhere near any of these depots.

I suspect that they've missed Mold off their list rather than anything more than that

Theres not many cross border routes to/from Wales that aren't already controlled or funded in some way by Welsh councils or run almost entirely within Wales. Only a few that I can think of which would be Merseytravel 811, Stagecoach 5 (Chester-Wrexham), Tanat Valley 588 (under Shropshire Council contract), Stagecoach routes into Monmouth. There may be a few more but you get the idea. In these instances, you'd hope they'd have the sense to have to have a permit scheme like London Service Permits.

You'd hope that a Manchester type approach (rather than a Merseyside one) would prevail. So services like Chester to Blacon or Saltney would operate under a permit being substantially in England, whilst those to Mold or Holywell would be part of the franchise. Much as the difference between the 125 and 362 in Greater Manchester.

 

[WAB]

Given almost everything in that area is tendered now, I don't think it would make much difference if the contracts are let out as single routes as it would become a case of the existing firms just getting new vehicles and livery which would be added to the contract cost. If it was a larger franchise, probably be a bigger firm with a depot. Or, it is a Welsh Govt aim to kind of eradicate private companies and so perhaps a Powys municipal.

It would be excessively expensive to do it individually by route. You also run into the issue of barriers of entry to the the market. Routes like the Pwllheli 3 have two boards, which is not going to entice anyone into an expensive bidding process. The only place franchising route-by-route in the UK is London, and they effectively transferred depots of work over to the operators first, and even the smaller routes have higher PVRs than many towns in North Wales.

I think there is definitely room for the larger independents like Lloyds, Llew Jones, Gwynfor etc. , but the likes of the independents around Pwllheli, say, not so much.

Given almost everything in that area is tendered now, I don't think it would make much difference if the contracts are let out as single routes as it would become a case of the existing firms just getting new vehicles and livery which would be added to the contract cost. If it was a larger franchise, probably be a bigger firm with a depot. Or, it is a Welsh Govt aim to kind of eradicate private companies and so perhaps a Powys municipal.

It's just a very different proposition to most council contracts. Given what has been said about TfW's ambitions, the franchising process will mean a more centrally-controlled timetable, strict vehicle specifications, central control of all ticketing and revenue, and passenger information. Lots more paperwork!

Which of these would run the Chester 3, 4/X4, 10/10A? TrawsCymru T8 wouldn't really work in any of these either. Who is going to run the P&O Lloyds Flintshire stuff as most of that goes nowhere near any of these depots.

Another depot in the Mold area, then. This is just indicative.

 

[RJ]

Although the biggest loser was probably ComfortDelGro subsidiary Adventure Travel which is closing its Taffs Well depot as a result.

I wonder what will happen to cross-border services if firms aren't allowed to operate local bus services in Wales without a franchise?

It would be a shame if that happened. I'm still interested in registering my own local bus route, perhaps in the summer only to start with. The idea isn't to compete or be abstractive, but to create links that don't already exist and bring some communities closer to a town centre. This week vehicles will be trialling the route to see if they can cope with it.

As for Adventure Travel, I'm interested in buying a vehicle or two from them.