Where should HS3 go and why?

[harry42]

West of Heathrow to Bristol, Exeter and Plymouth. This will really open up the south west economically.

Nice to dream.

This would be good - Cornwall and Devon are isolated in my opinion from the network with the exception of course of the FGW mainline.

So...

How about

Birmingham-Bristol-Exeter-Plymouth-Penzance!!!

Yet again, nice dreams!!!

 

[59CosG95]

This would be good - Cornwall and Devon are isolated in my opinion from the network with the exception of course of the FGW mainline.

So...

How about

Birmingham-Bristol-Exeter-Plymouth-Penzance!!!

Yet again, nice dreams!!!

Very nice dreams indeed! Though, that said, it should probably hug the M5 and the A's 38 and 30 until it reaches P'zance to mitigate environmental impact. All we need now is for NR to sort out the diabolical intercity train fares to make more people take HSR.

 

[Zoe]

I very mush doubt Penzance is going to have demand for a High Speed line, a lot of people travelling to Cornwall from London will be leaving at stations before Penzance. A lot of the Cornish stations are railheads for a large area, not just the town. If you end the HS line at Exeter then journey times will still be cut without having to build through the more difficult terrain further west.

 

[HSTEd]

Well running directly from Bristol to Plymouth in an almost straight line would allow trains to leave to join the line at somewhere near Exeter.

Which would be far cheaper than a simple linear line.

 

[Drsatan]

I very mush doubt Penzance is going to have demand for a High Speed line, a lot of people travelling to Cornwall from London will be leaving at stations before Penzance. A lot of the Cornish stations are railheads for a large area, not just the town. If you end the HS line at Exeter then journey times are will still be cut without having to build through the more difficult terrain further west.

I'd have thought that even if HS3 terminates at Exeter, there would still be an operational case for an additional route from Exeter to Newton Abbot avoiding the sea wall. Hopefully such a route would be electrified (along with Newton Abbot to Plymouth) to allow HS3 trains to operate as far as Plymouth.

I hope this doesn't descend into an argument about whether the sea wall will be irreparably damaged in the future by more frequent and intense storms, and whether these will be caused by global warming

 

[Bevan Price]

Personally, I think that UK is too small to justify the costs of building HS lines. But, assuming that we did build / extend more HS lines, I think the high cost means that the only viable destinations will be cities of populations exceeding 200,000 to 300,000.
So, Plymouth might just qualify, with Exeter getting an intermediate station. We can certainly discount the possibility of any HS line going into Cornwall.

Taken together, Southampton + Portsmouth might just be big enough to justify a HS line to London, but anywhere else on the south coast is either too small, or too close to London.

I don't think anywhere in East Anglia is large enough to justify a HS line.

So that leaves:
1. London - Bristol - Cardiff (maybe Swansea also). Reading Parkway probably the only intermediate stop. (and with some through services from HS2 and the north, rather than a new Birmingham - Bristol HS line. )
2. HS2 (East) extended to Newcastle (no intermediate stops between Leeds/Bradford Parkway & Newcastle.)
3. HS2 (West) extended to Glasgow & Edinburgh, with Preston Parkway as the only intermediate stop on the extension to Scotland. Could possibly reach Dundee & Aberdeen if Scottish administration makes a political decision to pay for it.

4. (Least likely) Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds/Bradford Parkway, with some through services to Newcastle

 

[HowardGWR]

Which would cost as much as a high speed line between Wooten Basset and Didcot and deliver fewer benefits.

It's Wootton Bassett, even without the royal. Give evidence please on why a new line would cost less than doubling the existing line (already clear for doubling in many sections).

High speed rail has the continental benefits in the South West thanks to the ridiculously long journey times we have now in Cornwall and Devon.
How would you like to commute to London from Liskeard and Plymouth?

I wouldn't, nor should anyone, least of all those who support environmentally sustainable development. That the West Country is relatively undeveloped, is its selling point.

A high speed line via Bristol to Plymouth could achieve that, which would be transformational for the slowly withering South Western economy.

The SW economy is not withering - give evidence please.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

This would be good - Cornwall and Devon are isolated in my opinion from the network with the exception of course of the FGW mainline.

So...

How about

Birmingham-Bristol-Exeter-Plymouth-Penzance!!!

Yet again, nice dreams!!!

This is sheer fantasy land. Dreamland indeed and what a nightmare. The SW economy is based on its beauty, not on its factories. It is actually desirable that urban sprawl is resisted. We have to have our last beautiful areas surely, otherwise why are we living?

 

[Altnabreac]

Personally, I think that UK is too small to justify the costs of building HS lines. But, assuming that we did build / extend more HS lines, I think the high cost means that the only viable destinations will be cities of populations exceeding 200,000 to 300,000.
So, Plymouth might just qualify, with Exeter getting an intermediate station. We can certainly discount the possibility of any HS line going into Cornwall.

Taken together, Southampton + Portsmouth might just be big enough to justify a HS line to London, but anywhere else on the south coast is either too small, or too close to London.

I don't think anywhere in East Anglia is large enough to justify a HS line.

So that leaves:
1. London - Bristol - Cardiff (maybe Swansea also). Reading Parkway probably the only intermediate stop. (and with some through services from HS2 and the north, rather than a new Birmingham - Bristol HS line. )
2. HS2 (East) extended to Newcastle (no intermediate stops between Leeds/Bradford Parkway & Newcastle.)
3. HS2 (West) extended to Glasgow & Edinburgh, with Preston Parkway as the only intermediate stop on the extension to Scotland. Could possibly reach Dundee & Aberdeen if Scottish administration makes a political decision to pay for it.

4. (Least likely) Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds/Bradford Parkway, with some through services to Newcastle

HS2 East would definitely include a parkway/interchange station for Darlington /Teeside, probably located where the line crosses the existing Darlington to Eaglescliffe route, SE of Darlington. Teeside, Hartlepool and Darlington have a combined population of around 600,000 so more than enough to justify a stop.

HS2 West would probably justify a Carlisle station. Although the city only has a population of 100,000, together Allerdale, Carlisle and Eden districts have a population of 250,000 and when you add in Dumfries and surrounds you're looking at a catchment of more like 350,000.

When you factor in the tourism pull of the Lake District and the ability to split/combine Edinburgh and Glasgow portions (especially of Manchester/Birmingham trains) I think the numbers would stack up for a station even if not all services would be calling there.

 

[HSTEd]

It's Wootton Bassett, even without the royal. Give evidence please on why a new line would cost less than doubling the existing line (already clear for doubling in many sections).

Because working adjacent to an existing railway always costs an absurd amount. You know, thanks to all the safety precautions you have to take and all the special certifications.
50km of route quadroupling is not going to come cheap.

Although you wouldn't build a High Speed route between Didcot and Wootton Bassett, since the line is suboptimally routed in travel time terms.

I wouldn't, nor should anyone, least of all those who support environmentally sustainable development. That the West Country is relatively undeveloped, is its selling point.

I don't think that is really Devon and Cornwall's best prospective selling point.
One would think the milder climate and more sunshine than most of the UK would be a bigger one.
The "undeveloped" part tends to be the kind of thing holiday home owners like, but not the numerous locals who cannot buy houses or find well paying jobs because the economy in the South West is becoming ever more seasonal and unskilled as a result of its terrible transport links.

The SW economy is not withering - give evidence please.

Aside from any anectodal evidence, the fact remains that Cornwall has recently begun recieving funding from the Objective One European fund for "Convergence Purposes" being only one of a handful areas in the traditional EU states to receive it.

That is not a good sign.

This is sheer fantasy land. Dreamland indeed and what a nightmare. The SW economy is based on its beauty, not on its factories. It is actually desirable that urban sprawl is resisted. We have to have our last beautiful areas surely, otherwise why are we living?

So people in Cornwall don't deserve the economic benefits that would come from drastically improved transport links?
It has to be kept undeveloped and many of its people amongst the most deprived in the country to preserve some fairytale of an "undeveloped" south west?

Its deprived nature does not make it beautiful, its terrain makes it beautiful and a few more housing estates in Plymouth and Liskeard are not going to rob it of its terrain, much of is much further west than that anyway.

Improved transport links will reduce the desire for holiday homes as most of Devon and much of Western Cornwall would join the viable London commuter belt.
Why have two homes when you can commute from the more desirable one?

 

[Grimsby town]

I don't think the cost of a new highspeed line from London to Bristol/Plymouth/Cardiff can be justified. Realistically you're not going to get the demand from Wales and the South West to fill three or four 400 metre trains an hour.

A new line from London to Heathrow/HS2 could remove the heathrow trains off the GWML and I think it has been mentioned you can get 16 trains per hour on the fastlines. Even with a few semi fast services I can't see intercity trains using more than this.

With some upgrades from Reading to Bristol/Cardiff fairly high line speeds could be attained. Maybe a few upgrades like a highspeed Seven Crossing, a highspeed line from Exeter to Plymouth and prehaps a new alignment from Swindon to Bristol/the Seven to allow an improved local service. This should lead to large journey time improvements.

 

[JamesRowden]

I don't think the cost of a new highspeed line from London to Bristol/Plymouth/Cardiff can be justified. Realistically you're not going to get the demand from Wales and the South West to fill three or four 400 metre trains an hour.

A new line from London to Heathrow/HS2 could remove the heathrow trains off the GWML and I think it has been mentioned you can get 16 trains per hour on the fastlines. Even with a few semi fast services I can't see intercity trains using more than this.

With some upgrades from Reading to Bristol/Cardiff fairly high line speeds could be attained. Maybe a few upgrades like a highspeed Seven Crossing, a highspeed line from Exeter to Plymouth and prehaps a new alignment from Swindon to Bristol/the Seven to allow an improved local service. This should lead to large journey time improvements.

It's 20tph that will be able to run on the fast lines out of Paddington (16tph is the amount that can run between Reading and Paddington with Heathrow Express running at 4tph).

Network Rail's London and South East Route Utilisation Strategy predicted that the only way to meet demand on the fast tracks between Reading and Paddington in 2031 is to remove the Heathrow Express during the peak (Heathrow given a 10tph Crossrail service to compensate) with a fast line service pattern of:

• Intercity (10tph)
• Outer Suburban (Oxford/Newbury) (12-car) (6tph)
• Paddington-Reading/Basingstoke (12-car) (4tph)

If these predictions are correct there will be need for some more Great Western tracks (assuming demand continues to increase). Perhaps these tracks could also connect with the Mainline to Southampton at Basingstoke to relieve the congestion on that route. Since this line would not be serving the as much of the country as HS2 I do not think that there would be a need for 400m trains since the infrastructure costs might be greater than the benefits.

If platforms 12-14 were extended to accomadate 240m trains at Paddington, there might be just enough capacity at Paddington for 40tph (20tph along each line) if just under 3tph at each platform is achievable (London Charing Cross manages 4tph at Mainline platforms).

 

[The Ham]

I don't think the cost of a new highspeed line from London to Bristol/Plymouth/Cardiff can be justified. Realistically you're not going to get the demand from Wales and the South West to fill three or four 400 metre trains an hour.

Off peak there is already demand to fill 2 trains an hour from Cardiff, 2 trains an hour from Bristol and at least 1 train per hour From Plymouth (all currently about 200m trains, but mostly soon to be 234m trains). That's at least 5 trains an hour now, with the potential growth in passengers between now and 2041 (remembering this likely to be about train services post 2033) and you'll be looking at needing double the capacity (assming 2.5% passenger growth).

It is therefore not unreasonable to run:
1tph CC (2*250m) - London, Reading, Exeter (split) and then onto Cornwall calling at most stations including Plymouth (Newton Abbot and Paignton)
1tph CC (250m) - London, Exeter, Plymouth
2tph CC (2*250m) - London, Heathrow, Bristol Parkway (split), Taunton, Exeter, Newton Abbot, Plymouth (Newport, Cardiff, Swansea)
2tph CC (2*250m) - London, Heathrow, Reading, Swindon(split), Gloucester, Cheltenham (Bristol)
2tph CC (250m) - London, Bristol
1tph CC (2*250m) - London, Reading, Bristol Parkway (split), Newport, Cardiff (Swansea)

Which is:
2x250m trains to Gloucester (four time the number of direct services) and Cheltenham (providing an all day direct service)
4x250m trains to Bristol Parkway and Wales (3 to Cardiff and 3 to Swansea) - a little over double now
4x250m trains to Bristol TM (Unless 400m platforms could be built at TM then 2 of the services could be 400m long) - a little over double now or a little over 2.5 the current provission
4x250m trains to Plymouth (which proberbly would be a little much, but given that is where HS3 would benefit the most it proberbly would see the largest amount of growth post opeing, but not all of the services would need to run from day one)

 

[Waverley125]

HS3 will be to South Wales and Bristol. Bristol, Cardiff & Swansea are the only places large enough to justify a high speed line.

I'd imagine the line will run via OOC, Heathrow & Reading to Bristol & Cardiff, then beyond Cardiff to Swansea.

I'd also hope for a line extending beyond Swansea to a tunnel near Fishguard, then under the Irish sea to Rosslare, to another junction and thence to Cork and Dublin.

That would serve populations of:

Heathrow (70m pax annualy)

Reading (320k)
Bristol (1.07m)
Cardiff (860k)
Swansea (300k)
Dublin (1.8m)
Cork (400k)

Total population served: 4.7m

 

[Yew]

This is sheer fantasy land. Dreamland indeed and what a nightmare. The SW economy is based on its beauty, not on its factories. It is actually desirable that urban sprawl is resisted. We have to have our last beautiful areas surely, otherwise why are we living?

Thats odd, I was of the understanding historically the southwest was based on the mining of tin and china clay..

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

This thread asks the question...Where should HS3 go to and why.

My responses would be:-
A)....Room 101.
B)....Totally too far advanced into the future for purposes of discussion in 2013.

 

[HowardGWR]

Thats odd, I was of the understanding historically the southwest was based on the mining of tin and china clay..

No just the end bit of it (The SW stretches from Tewkesbury to Bournemouth through Salisbury and all points west to the Severn and Bristol Channel plus the Forest of Dean). Not only that but they do not mine tin any more. The rest of mining accounts for about a part of 1 percent employment.

I appreciate, if you watch Plymouth News, as I unfortunately have to (via free to air anyway) you would think that all we do is fish, farm and hunt. Agriculture accounts for only 3% employment in the entire SW.

The prospects for justifying HS services in this Region are fairly remote (IMO).

 

[JohnCarlson]

I think HS3 will run from Just north of York to just south of Gateshead and HS4 just north of Newcastle to just south of Brewick or Edinburgh if Anglo Scottish agreement can be reached.


John

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think HS3 will run from Just north of York to just south of Gateshead and HS4 just north of Newcastle to just south of Berwick or Edinburgh if Anglo Scottish agreement can be reached.

Will Scottish Independence, if happens, be a matter to take into consideration when one has to allow for the project capital cost-sharing that will be required should your HS4 proposal to Edinburgh be proceeded with ?

 

[Kettledrum]

Personally, I think that UK is too small to justify the costs of building HS lines. But, assuming that we did build / extend more HS lines, I think the high cost means that the only viable destinations will be cities of populations exceeding 200,000 to 300,000.
So, Plymouth might just qualify, with Exeter getting an intermediate station. We can certainly discount the possibility of any HS line going into Cornwall.

Taken together, Southampton + Portsmouth might just be big enough to justify a HS line to London, but anywhere else on the south coast is either too small, or too close to London.

What about the Bournemouth and Poole conurbation area?

According to the Registrar General's Mid-Year Home Population Estimates 2011, the population of this area includes:

Christchurch - population: 47,900
Purbeck - population 45,200
Bournemouth Unitary Authority - 183,500
Poole Unitary Authority - 148,100

London - Portsmouth/Southampton - Bournemouth/Poole - Exeter - Plymouth would be a very interesting route.

 

[mister-sparky]

....London - Portsmouth/Southampton - Bournemouth/Poole - Exeter - Plymouth would be a very interesting route.

Even with HS, London to Plymouth via Southampton would be slower than London to Plymouth direct today most probably.

 

[HSTEd]

Even with HS, London to Plymouth via Southampton would be slower than London to Plymouth direct today most probably.

Not really, its comparable in distance to London-Bristol-Exeter.
Its about 75 minutes.

London Plymouth today takes far far longer than that.

 

[Altnabreac]

I think HS3 will run from Just north of York to just south of Gateshead and HS4 just north of Newcastle to just south of Brewick or Edinburgh if Anglo Scottish agreement can be reached.


John

I believe the preferred terminology for the HS line north to Scotland is HS2 phase 3.

HS2 are awaiting final instructions from DfT to start route and option development but it should be underway next year. Quite when/whether it will actually be built is another matter.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What about the Bournemouth and Poole conurbation area?

According to the Registrar General's Mid-Year Home Population Estimates 2011, the population of this area includes:

Christchurch - population: 47,900
Purbeck - population 45,200
Bournemouth Unitary Authority - 183,500
Poole Unitary Authority - 148,100

London - Portsmouth/Southampton - Bournemouth/Poole - Exeter - Plymouth would be a very interesting route.

Look at the station areas that are in the plans for HS2. The idea of extra intermediate stations that would tend to cut down the full efficiency to be gained from the proposal as originally envisaged is against the spirit of what a High Speed railway is all about and that same scenario will also apply to any geographical extension of the HS1/HS2 systems.

 

[HowardGWR]

Not really, its comparable in distance to London-Bristol-Exeter.
Its about 75 minutes.

London Plymouth today takes far far longer than that.

We seem to have a lot of pro HS enthusiasts for the SW here but the lobby will not include me, even though I live there.

Surely the trans-pennine route is the one that really has the potential to produce major time savings between our largest centres, compared with today (with due respect to TPE's efforts).

Liverpool / Manchester / Leeds / Newcastle, as promoted in the early part of this thread, must be the big winner here?

 

[Ironside]

We seem to have a lot of pro HS enthusiasts for the SW here but the lobby will not include me, even though I live there.

Surely the trans-pennine route is the one that really has the potential to produce major time savings between our largest centres, compared with today (with due respect to TPE's efforts).

Liverpool / Manchester / Leeds / Newcastle, as promoted in the early part of this thread, must be the big winner here?

Connecting those four cities with high speed lines is probably a higher priority and the numbers make more sence. I think making the cost benefit of a south west high speed line would require a very long term view that the UK is not very good at. So hopefully more Northern HS lines then look at the south west.

 

[HSTEd]

We seem to have a lot of pro HS enthusiasts for the SW here but the lobby will not include me, even though I live there.

Surely the trans-pennine route is the one that really has the potential to produce major time savings between our largest centres, compared with today (with due respect to TPE's efforts).

Liverpool / Manchester / Leeds / Newcastle, as promoted in the early part of this thread, must be the big winner here?

I regard all those routes as logical extensions of HS2.
It is not exactly a "new" high speed route if you just tack fifty or sixty miles onto the end of the existing route is it?

Or about 30 miles between Sheffield and Manchester.

 

[Ironside]

I regard all those routes as logical extensions of HS2.
It is not exactly a "new" high speed route if you just tack fifty or sixty miles onto the end of the existing route is it?

Or about 30 miles between Sheffield and Manchester.

New but not worth calling HS3, perhaps HS2.4, HS2.5 etc.

 

[els]

London to Brighton is relatively short, so scope for time-saving is limited, but by the same token it would take less time to build. The existing BML is in any case one of the most congested lines at present. Rather than quadruple the existing line (which would be extremely expensive anyway) they would do just as well to make a brand new HS line.

How it feeds into an HS network is more difficult.. getting a bit silly here but perhaps upgrade the WLL to a decent speed and make it overhead wires throughout, make West Brompton/Earl's Court the main London stop and by continuing north, make a high-speed link between Gatwick and Heathrow, via HS2 and Crossrail at Old Oak Common.

Or just do what they always seem to do now and tunnel from the M25 to central. The south of London hasn't been so dug up anyway.

 

[JGR]

London to Brighton is relatively short, so scope for time-saving is limited, but by the same token it would take less time to build. The existing BML is in any case one of the most congested lines at present. Rather than quadruple the existing line (which would be extremely expensive anyway) they would do just as well to make a brand new HS line.

How it feeds into an HS network is more difficult.. getting a bit silly here but perhaps upgrade the WLL to a decent speed and make it overhead wires throughout, make West Brompton/Earl's Court the main London stop and by continuing north, make a high-speed link between Gatwick and Heathrow, via HS2 and Crossrail at Old Oak Common.

Or just do what they always seem to do now and tunnel from the M25 to central. The south of London hasn't been so dug up anyway.

The south of London is less dug up because the ground is less amenable to tunnelling.

West Brompton is not particularly central, and doesn't really have the facilities/space to be a full-blown intercity station.
By the time you've got the District line back into the centre, any time saving you might have had will have been lost anyway.
Upgrading the WLL to high speed is also somewhat at odds with the fact that it's used to run the WLL.

 

[HSTEd]

Running a High Speed line to Brighton would be able to have maybe a 20-25 minute end to end journey time if you had an intermediate stop at Gatwick Airport.

Problem is that I don't think you could justify 18 trains per hour along that section.
So you would have to either continue the line west along the south coast after putting in a big curve just north of Brighton, or you could convert the Coastway lines into primary intercity routes....

Or you could do both. (Using the coastway's current stopping pattern the journey time from Portsmouth via Brighton would be competitive with today's journeys, obviously a South Coast Shinkansen could be in Penzance by the ~1hr45 mark).