Why aren't peak hour only bus routes and increased peak frequencies common in the UK?

[miklcct]

In Hong Kong, a lot of bus routes have the frequency differential being multiple times between peak and off-peak, and peak-only commuter routes.

For example, the route 788 runs every 3-4 minutes in the peak commuting direction, but 10-12 off-peak. For a more extreme example, the route 948 runs every 30 minutes off-peak, however it doesn't run during peak hours - the peak service is provided by 5 suffixed peak only routes which provide 25 departures in total in the busiest hour!

However, in London, there is only one peak hour only route other than school services, which is SL6. Even on the regular routes, I don't see the frequency difference between peak and daytime off-peak as extreme as 3-fold, or even 10-fold as above.

For example, route 113 just says every 6-10 minutes throughout 07:00 - 19:00 from Edgware, other routes connecting the city and the suburbs such as 68, 207 and 468 are all similar.

The situation outside London is similar as well. For example, there are a couple of X-prefixed express routes connecting Glasgow and its suburbs using the motorway, but they also don't have a frequent peak service compared to off-peak.

Why don't bus services in the UK, no matter London or not, have a significant uplift in peak hours? Don't people in the UK need to commute by bus?

 

[Adtrainsam]

Increases in frequency = higher PVR = higher costs basically.

Peak times are often when traffic is heaviest, so to increase frequency, you’d need to increase the PVR. You’ve also got school routes to run around these times too - so at other times of the day, those extra vehicles would be sat around doing nothing and therefore the utility of those vehicles are not being maximised. With the commercial nature of the bus network outside of London, it’s clear to see why increased peak frequencies aren’t common.

A lot of bus routes during off-peak times aren’t especially profitable - so by having busier buses during peaks, it subsidises the services during quieter times (middle of the day or evenings).

Having said that, there are a few frequency increases in commuter towns. In Chelmsford, town routes like the C4/C5, the Chelmer Village corridor and P&R services almost double in frequency during peak times.

 

[zero]

I think in HK there is a lot more peak directionality than London. Also, London's population is a lot more spread out.

So routes like the 113 in London still carry passengers on short journeys during the peaks, unlike the HK tunnel buses which are like the SL6 and pick up in one area, transport all the passengers to another area and then disperse them there.

People living close to Tsing Yi station may prefer the train when travelling to and from HK Island, but the MTR is unpleasant during peak hours so they may prefer the 948 series of buses where they have more chance of getting a seat in the morning. I notice there are no 948* buses going north in the evening.

London only has a few expressways and they don't go into the city centre. There is the 702 which runs along the M4. It does get full during the peak but the frequency is still hourly, it doesn't really fill up the rest of the day. I don't think there is much demand for people to be transported by bus only from Watford to Brent Cross on the M1 or from one end of the A406 to another without stopping in between.

In Sydney there is a series of buses like in HK which transport people between the CBD and the "middle" western districts along the M2 motorway. For example the 610X runs every 10 minutes most of the day but increases to every 4 minutes (in one direction only) in peak hours, and is supplemented by additional peak only routes. Every 4 minutes seems about right, as each bus departs mostly full without standees - in reality it goes a bit like the very heavy cross-harbour tunnel routes in HK where they depart when it's full, and the next vehicle is already waiting.

 

[WibbleWobble]

Another problem with having peak only enhancements would be a significant increase in split duty requirements - these sorts of duties aren't popular with the majority of drivers, so there is a risk of recruitment and retention issues.

 

[PeterC]

In my experience of 60+years of bus travel is that peak extras faded away as buses got bigger. On my boyhood route, the 103, a morning RT operated service from Chase Cross would be full before it reached the A12 so there were short workings from Heather Gardens (modern stop name) to Romford Station. When higher capacity vehicles were introduced (I forget the class) they could pick up at all stops and the extras, by that time an extension of he 248, were dropped.

 

[Sussexwatch]

Many London routes had increased peak frequencies in the until the 1980s, the 38 (Victoria to Clapton Pond) ran every 3 minutes at peak times and every 5-6 minutes off peak until relatively recently. Outside London increased peak frequencies were common in some places before deregulation but not others, often because operators preferred to run extra duplicate buses on the busiest journeys that could be removed during school holidays etc. I can think of places like Reading and Maidstone where most municipal services had increased peak frequencies during the late 60s and 70s. Historically I believe the operator that had the highest proportion of peak to off peak services was Birmingham City Transport. Even in West Midlands PTE days (1969-86) it was common for frequencies on main routes in Birmingham to at least double. Hence the most frequent service, the 50 from City Centre to Druids Heath went from every 5 minutes to every 2-3 minutes, even some lesser services had big increases. The 10 from City Centre to Quinton Road West (a route which barely exists today) ran every 20 minutes off peak but increased to every 5-6 minutes.

There are a few examples today, Brighton & Hove's limited stop route 12X between Brighton and Eastbourne runs every 20 minutes for most of the day increasing to every 10 minutes from Brighton during the evening peak and is well used.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You do get it, but often the resources are needed just to maintain frequency, let alone increase them.

 

[SCH117X]

There will be peak time only services to employment locations - Transdev operate the X6 in Harrogate to one albeit this summer it was run throughout Mon-Fri daytime to serve a nearby RHS garden as well, while their is a peak time only service between Ripon and and an isolated business park near the A1 (Dales & District 136)

 

[43055]

You do get it, but often the resources are needed just to maintain frequency, let alone increase them.

Or in the case of Arriva Derby take resources off another route in the counter peak direction. Route 26 (Derby - Oakwood) drops from 15 to 30 mins outbound in the morning, inbound in the evening peak with the buses running 'the wyvern' instead which runs from Derby to the Wyvern business park via Pride Park.

 

[northwichcat]

With subsided routes some councils don't want to run enhanced services in the morning peak because they want tenders for school services to be as cheap as possible.

Sometimes the gap between services can actually be greater in the morning peak as operators create timetables based on 1 or 2 vehicles and allow extra time for journeys when traffic will be heavier.

 

[Stan Drews]

Quite simply, in our large urban areas there is no longer the high peak demand for everyone to travel from the suburbs to the city centre for a 9 to 5 type existence, that was more prevalent in the 70s/80s. The demographics of our built up areas has changed dramatically, and this has had an impact on how people need to travel.
The more recent increase in working from home has had a further negative impact on peak time travel.

 

[miklcct]

I think in HK there is a lot more peak directionality than London. Also, London's population is a lot more spread out.

So routes like the 113 in London still carry passengers on short journeys during the peaks, unlike the HK tunnel buses which are like the SL6 and pick up in one area, transport all the passengers to another area and then disperse them there.

People living close to Tsing Yi station may prefer the train when travelling to and from HK Island, but the MTR is unpleasant during peak hours so they may prefer the 948 series of buses where they have more chance of getting a seat in the morning. I notice there are no 948* buses going north in the evening.

London only has a few expressways and they don't go into the city centre. There is the 702 which runs along the M4. It does get full during the peak but the frequency is still hourly, it doesn't really fill up the rest of the day. I don't think there is much demand for people to be transported by bus only from Watford to Brent Cross on the M1 or from one end of the A406 to another without stopping in between.

In Sydney there is a series of buses like in HK which transport people between the CBD and the "middle" western districts along the M2 motorway. For example the 610X runs every 10 minutes most of the day but increases to every 4 minutes (in one direction only) in peak hours, and is supplemented by additional peak only routes. Every 4 minutes seems about right, as each bus departs mostly full without standees - in reality it goes a bit like the very heavy cross-harbour tunnel routes in HK where they depart when it's full, and the next vehicle is already waiting.

So in this respect Sydney is like Hong Kong. In London, why isn't it popular to run an express bus from commuter towns all the way direct to the city, on routes without a direct rail connection? Is it because there are so many railways in London that nearly all commuter flows have been catered by the railway? How about in Glasgow or other cities where there are motorway connections to the city centre, but with a less intensive suburban rail network? Why doesn't Glasgow behave like Hong Kong or Sydney?

In my experience of 60+years of bus travel is that peak extras faded away as buses got bigger. On my boyhood route, the 103, a morning RT operated service from Chase Cross would be full before it reached the A12 so there were short workings from Heather Gardens (modern stop name) to Romford Station. When higher capacity vehicles were introduced (I forget the class) they could pick up at all stops and the extras, by that time an extension of he 248, were dropped.

So it means that because the buses got bigger, the extra vehicles required to satisfy peak demand were not needed, resulting in a reduction of peak frequency matching the off-peak, is that right? Is such case, why didn't the off-peak frequency drop?

Quite simply, in our large urban areas there is no longer the high peak demand for everyone to travel from the suburbs to the city centre for a 9 to 5 type existence, that was more prevalent in the 70s/80s. The demographics of our built up areas has changed dramatically, and this has had an impact on how people need to travel.
The more recent increase in working from home has had a further negative impact on peak time travel.

Is it because the economy in the UK has become worse off, that fewer people need to work? In contrast, I don't see much increase in working from home in Hong Kong in recent years, with peak-hour only commuter routes still growing.

 

[Tom B]

South Yorkshire frequencies are lower during the peak times - the bus network has been massacred to the point that anybody commuting to a job probably drives unless they have absolutely no other option.

Up north, LRT do operate a huge number of peak hour Express routes, especially out to Midlothian/East Lothian, and supplementary peak runs on busy routes (22s, 25s etc). I assume that, although additional staff are needed to drive at the peak times, that can work out to a good 3-4hrs, and the other half of a shift could be taken up by doing meal breaks?

 

[Deerfold]

In Hong Kong, a lot of bus routes have the frequency differential being multiple times between peak and off-peak, and peak-only commuter routes.

For example, the route 788 runs every 3-4 minutes in the peak commuting direction, but 10-12 off-peak. For a more extreme example, the route 948 runs every 30 minutes off-peak, however it doesn't run during peak hours - the peak service is provided by 5 suffixed peak only routes which provide 25 departures in total in the busiest hour!

However, in London, there is only one peak hour only route other than school services, which is SL6. Even on the regular routes, I don't see the frequency difference between peak and daytime off-peak as extreme as 3-fold, or even 10-fold as above.

There's also the 603 in London

The situation outside London is similar as well. For example, there are a couple of X-prefixed express routes connecting Glasgow and its suburbs using the motorway, but they also don't have a frequent peak service compared to off-peak.

Why don't bus services in the UK, no matter London or not, have a significant uplift in peak hours? Don't people in the UK need to commute by bus?

Most places need more bus priority to be worth running express services. There's so much congestion that it's not worth the gain of running fast as you don't gain much speed and miss out potential passengers.

Far few people commute by bus then did 20 or 30 years ago - and it's a downward spiral - fewer people - fewer buses - less convenience. For years I commuted from the village of Ripponden to Halifax. Between 8 and 9 I had 4 buses arriving that ran along the main road and 3 that took longer routes. Sometimes I'd drop in on a relative on the way to work and het back ona bus 10 minutes later. Now there's 1 along the main road and 2 on the longer routes.

So in this respect Sydney is like Hong Kong. In London, why isn't it popular to run an express bus from commuter towns all the way direct to the city, on routes without a direct rail connection? Is it because there are so many railways in London that nearly all commuter flows have been catered by the railway? How about in Glasgow or other cities where there are motorway connections to the city centre, but with a less intensive suburban rail network? Why doesn't Glasgow behave like Hong Kong or Sydney?

Hong Kong is ideal bus territory - it's got very high population density - in the UK, the density is lower in city centres and drops quickly as you go out. Glasgow has a dozen or so express routes, some peak only, run by Stagecoach who run a similar number of express services into Edinburgh.

Is it because the economy in the UK has become worse off, that fewer people need to work? In contrast, I don't see much increase in working from home in Hong Kong in recent years, with peak-hour only commuter routes still growing.

Most people (around two thirds) who commute in the UK do it by car, clogging up the roads that could be more efficiently served by buses. There's also been a drop due to more working from home.

 

[Busaholic]

The last bus route in London to offer significantly higher frequencies in the traditional peak hours was withdrawn in its entirety earlier this year, it being the 521, a survivor of the Red Arrow central express services introduced in the 1960s. The other ex-Red Arrow route 507 was withdrawn at the same time, and that also had higher peak frequencies, but not to the level of the 521. Of the more traditional routes, the 38 had had the most upkick in the peaks until the cuts started to take effect in pre-Covid times, with the 73 not too far behind. In the 1960s before the Victoria Line opened the 25 and 38/A were the winners, and in the 1970s the 11 and 12 would have been near the top. Of course, in those times short-working journeys, on what were mainly much longer routes, were prevalent.

 

[daodao]

There used to be a lot of peak hour only bus routes, some limited stop, in large cities like Manchester over 40 years ago, but they have nearly all disappeared. There were also a number of short workings or slight route variations, typically with the suffix "x" in Manchester.

 

[JonathanH]

Most places need more bus priority to be worth running express services. There's so much congestion that it's not worth the gain of running fast as you don't gain much speed and miss out potential passengers.

In addition, it isn't going to be long before urban roads that haven't already been reduced to 20mph are set to that limit, so there won't be much speed at all.

 

[Deerfold]

There's actually quite a few routes in London that have an increased peak frequency - thery're just not massively more frequent - they might go from 6bph to 7bph.

One of my local routes does this - it's every 30 minutes for most of the day, it takes longer at peak times, so rather than reducing the frequency as some companies do, they use an extra bus and up the frequency to every 25 minutes.

 

[gingerheid]

If you were running a bus company you'd probably not be keen on having expensive assets used only a few hours a day and trying to find drivers to drive them. To the extent that you can find extra drivers to drive at morning peak you'd probably rather have them do school contracts, which are guaranteed money via people that can't complain about the quality of the bus and that will fit beautifully around the odd bonus like a school > swimming pool run.

 

[northwichcat]

If you were running a bus company you'd probably not be keen on having expensive assets used only a few hours a day and trying to find drivers to drive them. To the extent that you can find extra drivers to drive at morning peak you'd probably rather have them do school contracts, which are guaranteed money via people that can't complain about the quality of the bus and that will fit beautifully around the odd bonus like a school > swimming pool run.

Coach hire firms like school contracts as it's guaranteed work, except during school holidays and at weekends. Those being the times they have highest demand for coach hire and coach trips.

Some keep costs down by acquiring old double decker buses to use only on school work and using semi-retired drivers who just want a bit of extra income to top up their pension, rather than 46 weeks of driving 8 hours a day, 5 days a week.

 

[Roger1973]

In the 1960s before the Victoria Line opened the 25 and 38/A were the winners, and in the 1970s the 11 and 12 would have been near the top. Of course, in those times short-working journeys, on what were mainly much longer routes, were prevalent.

I might have to trawl through some old schedule books to try and find the most heavily 'peaked' routes. I wonder if a few routes on the suburban / industrial fringes, that wouldn't have had the daytime traffic in the west end, might also have been contenders?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Most places need more bus priority to be worth running express services. There's so much congestion that it's not worth the gain of running fast as you don't gain much speed and miss out potential passengers.

Hong Kong is ideal bus territory - it's got very high population density - in the UK, the density is lower in city centres and drops quickly as you go out. Glasgow has a dozen or so express routes, some peak only, run by Stagecoach who run a similar number of express services into Edinburgh.

Absolutely this.

First of all, we have the fragmentation of employment locations in the last 50 years. Whereas you would have hundreds or thousands of people travelling from one place to another (city centre or a major employer), this is now much more dispersed.

Secondly, the amount of traffic congestion has gone through the roof. For example, the 36 runs from Harrogate to Leeds. In 1987, it took 40 mins irrespective of the time of day. It's now 53 minutes off peak, and approaching peak, the 0742 arrival takes 57 mins whilst the subsequent arrivals all take progressively longer until the 0903 arrival takes 73 minutes...and this is one of the more successful bus routes! The lack of bus priority means that whilst the idea of an express service seems attractive, it is simply still spending much of its time in traffic. Of course, it also means that to maintain just a standard headway, operators are already having to fit in extra peak hour duties and such is the challenge that you are seeing examples of both additional peak hour workings coupled with a widened headway.

Thirdly, the cost of car ownership has gone down in real terms whereas bus travel is more expensive.

 

[Busaholic]

I might have to trawl through some old schedule books to try and find the most heavily 'peaked' routes. I wonder if a few routes on the suburban / industrial fringes, that wouldn't have had the daytime traffic in the west end, might also have been contenders?

Those would give an idea, agreed, but given the quite generalised service interval summaries wouldn't be decisive. Even 'panel' timetables displayed at bus stops on many suburban routes often skipped over the peak times by saying something like 'and then every 4 to 6 minutes until'. I'd guess the extras for the routes serving Ford's at Dagenham would be favourites, the 174 and 175 in particular. Of course, the aforementioned 25 also had a completely separate peak service to Ford's that had no connection to the main route!

 

[James H]

In London, I think Livingstone-era TfL moved to simplify bus services, doing away with short workings and making everything end-to-end at a similar frequency all day, smoothing out the differences between peak and off-peak. There is a hangover from this now in how the network is run.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In London, I think Livingstone-era TfL moved to simplify bus services, doing away with short workings and making everything end-to-end at a similar frequency all day, smoothing out the differences between peak and off-peak. There is a hangover from this now in how the network is run.

London does have changed peak frequencies on quite a lot of routes, though, far more than the provinces do. It also until recently had (and may still have in places) commuter-oriented routes like the now-withdrawn Red Arrows.

 

[TheSmiths82]

What has happened a lot in Manchester is that off peak services have been reduced while the peak service stays the same or being reduced slightly less. My bus at peak times used to be every 2-3 minutes, they are every 12 now at peak times but I think the Metrolink has taken so much traffic away from the buses so that might be partly why.

I think also a lot of peak services were double up for capacity reasons e.g two buses running on the service say 7:12 service. Again I never see that anymore.

 

[markymark2000]

How about in Glasgow or other cities where there are motorway connections to the city centre, but with a less intensive suburban rail network? Why doesn't Glasgow behave like Hong Kong or Sydney?

Glasgow has a good few peak time buses. McGills has the 906X & X21/XP21 peak buses. X10 has an extra trip in the evening peak (normally hourly, extra trip makes it half hourly). The 901/906 and X7 also don't serve Braehead at peak times so as to make journey times quicker for city commuters. X23 runs every 15 minutes in the peak times versus every 30 minutes normally.
First bus X3 goes up to every 15 minutes into Glasgow in the morning peak and out of Glasgow in the evening peak versus normally every 20 minutes. X11 runs about every 10-15 mins in the morning peak into Glasgow in the morning peak and around every 15 mins out of Glasgow in the evening peak versus a core frequency of half hourly.
Stagecoach runs the Cumbernauld X25/X25A more frequently at peak times and extends some journeys through to the University. X36 Starts at/extends to Ardrossan at peak times (though I think that this is mostly because that is where the depot is). X71, X78, X79 all provide peak only journeys into Glasgow with the X76 and X77 extending journeys to run to the University and/or running more frequently and/or extend/divert through more suburbs to get commuters closer to home. Kilmarnock to Glasgow goes from normally 3 trips per hour to 5 at peaks.

I want to say that Citylink have buses available for dupes as well on routes like the 900 at peak times because there is/was overcrowding for some of the intermediate stops so they run dupes as required rather than increasing the frequency.

Hong Kong is ideal bus territory - it's got very high population density - in the UK, the density is lower in city centres and drops quickly as you go out. Glasgow has a dozen or so express routes, some peak only, run by Stagecoach who run a similar number of express services into Edinburgh.

Would I be right in saying that Hong Kong tends to have quite separate residential and commercial areas as well and so you have the huge amounts of people going from residential to commercial whereas in the UK, land use in becoming more and more mixed use and so the amount of people doing suburbs-city centre commutes is decreasing as people start to live closer to their workplace and as has already been said, some workplaces are much more spread out rather than focussed on core areas. I think Canary Wharf is the key example of this, previously I think it was about 30-50 commuter buses per day would go through, now it's less than 20 since Covid.

There used to be a lot of peak hour only bus routes, some limited stop, in large cities like Manchester over 40 years ago, but they have nearly all disappeared. There were also a number of short workings or slight route variations, typically with the suffix "x" in Manchester.

Or in some cases, the X92 got cut thanks to stupid people who didn't read the destination display and started to let themselves off the bus via the emergency exit at random points because they didn't want to do to the first drop off point. That sort of thing just wouldn't happen in some other counties as they carry a better class of people than those along the 192 corridor.

 

[zero]

Would I be right in saying that Hong Kong tends to have quite separate residential and commercial areas as well and so you have the huge amounts of people going from residential to commercial whereas in the UK, land use in becoming more and more mixed use and so the amount of people doing suburbs-city centre commutes is decreasing as people start to live closer to their workplace and as has already been said, some workplaces are much more spread out rather than focussed on core areas. I think Canary Wharf is the key example of this, previously I think it was about 30-50 commuter buses per day would go through, now it's less than 20 since Covid.

Yes although it's not completely separate as such, just that extreme population densities can be achieved - 8 flats per floor, 30 floors per building, 4 or 5 buildings per estate, could be served by one bus stop. Sometimes 3 or 4 estates are close to a bus station.

Commercial areas have plenty of residential flats too, but not at such densities, and the bus stops are much more spread out because they are busy all day.

Also to reiterate/clarify from my earlier post, Hong Kong is divided into many distinct areas separated either by water or mountains and connected by tunnels or expressways, and for many connections between these areas, it's impossible to have (or there is low demand for) a "local" stopping service. So the majority of bus routes using tunnels/expressways are effectively pick-up only then drop-off only, meaning there has to be higher capacity than if people also made short journeys on them.

I don't know enough about Glasgow buses to comment, but it's a bit like Edinburgh to Fife, but imagine if every town in Fife was concentrated into 4 or 5 huge high-rise blocks.

Regarding Sydney, the express buses are really only along the M2 motorway because they serve an area which was until recently not connected by train. As it's still possible to run buses along the motorway bus lane, even after the metro was built people still prefer direct bus over bus + metro + change to another train. They don't really exist elsewhere except for the Northern Beaches, but there is no express road there so those feel more like London's 607=SL8

 

[Busaholic]

I think the difference between peak buses and peak frequencies needs explaining at this stage. If 10 buses are required to run a 10 minute interval route offpeak and the running time is increased by 10% in the peaks, then 11 buses will be needed to maintain that frequency. So an extra bus in those circumstances does not provide any extra frequency for the passenger.

 

[ChrisC]

Going right back in time to 50+ years ago, certainly in many areas of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, there were increased frequencies on routes at peak times. The Midland General Omnibus Company, which ran a large number of routes certainly did this. Many of the longer routes which served lots of villages and had an hourly frequency for most of the day, ran half hourly before 9am and then again between 4pm and 7pm. Interestingly this half hourly frequency also ran on some routes from lunchtime on Saturdays right through into the evening. When Trent Buses took over Midland General in the 1970’s these additional buses were gradually withdrawn. When I started working in 1978 there was still a half hourly frequency from the village, but it was withdrawn during my first year of working, which resulted in me deciding quite soon afterwards that I needed to buy a car. Now days we don’t get increased frequencies on some of these routes, but less buses at peak times, with alterations and reductions to the standard timetable to accommodate school runs.