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Will we ever see a replacement for Concorde ?

YorkRailFan

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Yes, but the fact that in 2001 nobody wanted a mach 0.98 Boeing Sonic Cruiser yet now multiplet carriers are already interested in a mach 1.7 jet demonstrates they have are fairly sure there is a market. Whether or not it will be built by 2029 or not go bankrupt is another story.
Airlines didn't want the Boeing Sonic Cruiser in 2001 because of the downturn in traffic following the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, additionally, I would compare the Sonic Cruiser more to the Convair 880 and Convair 990, not supersonic, but close to it, meaning that it isn't as fast as Concorde but has a similar operating cost.

Regarding American Airlines, United Airlines and Japan Airlines, the first two make sense, as they can fly Trans-Atlantic, but the Japan Airlines is interesting, as I have already said before, the Overture doesn't have the range to fly Tokyo to Los Angeles and/or San Fransisco without a fuel stop. It's also important to mention that many airlines ordered the Concorde, and only two ever flew her.
Wasn't the Concorde life expired anyway? It was already over 25 years old by 2003 and if not total replacement then significant refitting as mentioned upthread would have been needed.
Yes, but the Crash of AF4590, the fuel prices spiking, the aforementioned incident on 18 February 2003 and the events of 9/11 were the perfect reasons for Air France and British Airways to retire the type as they never really wanted the type when they took it on.
 
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Tetchytyke

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rising fuel prices and the aforementioned incident on 18 February 2003 all contributed to the decline and pushed Air France and British Airways over the edge into retiring the aircraft
The incident in Feb 2003 was relatively minor- a fuel line ruptured, the pilots shut the engine down, and the plane landed safely in Nova Scotia.

What was almost certainly more relevant was the fact the affected aircraft was only half full.


Concorde was ageing when it was pulled, it was costing too much to maintain. High fuel prices mean nobody else has developed a replacement for the aircraft.

If the A380 wasn’t successful because of fuel prices, there’s no way a supersonic jet will be.

American Airlines has ordered 20 of the Boom Overture, with options for a further 40.

United Airlines has ordered 15, with options on a further 35.

Japan Air Lines has options on 20 of them
Airlines hedge their bets on lots of new aircraft. Orders are largely a free bet for airlines- minimal down payments and easy enough to pull out before delivery if they choose to.
 

Peter Mugridge

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The incident in Feb 2003 was relatively minor- a fuel line ruptured, the pilots shut the engine down, and the plane landed safely in Nova Scotia.
...with less than five minutes of fuel in total remaining in the tanks.


Wasn't the Concorde life expired anyway? It was already over 25 years old by 2003 and if not total replacement then significant refitting as mentioned upthread would have been needed.
In terms of years, yes - but the aircraft were very low on hours and cycles, which is the main factor in "age" for aircraft.


You continue to assume that the aircraft will be built, with the factory not even completed, no photos of the construction, partnering with small engine manufacturers, the XB-1 demonstrator hasn't even flown, and the timeline of certification and entry into service of 2029 is incredibly optimistic.
They have published pictures of the factory construction, though? The most recent one I saw a couple of weeks ago shows the main structure completed and fitting out starting.
 

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birchesgreen

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Wasn't the Concorde life expired anyway? It was already over 25 years old by 2003 and if not total replacement then significant refitting as mentioned upthread would have been needed.
Yes without the crash (and 911) it would have survived for a few years longer but would probably have been withdrawn by now due to its age.
 

YorkRailFan

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Despite the CEO saying it would, the XB-1 "Baby Boom" did not fly in 2023, it did, however receive FAA certification in 2023.
The supersonic aircraft manufacturer Boom has revealed plans to start the first high-speed taxi tests for its XB-1 demonstrator in the upcoming weeks, a significant step in its supersonic aircraft development.

We shall see if this happens.

Does anyone know if Boom Supersonic has considered an Oblique Wing for the Overture?

Boom Supersonic has taken a key step towards XB-1 supersonic test flights in requesting FAA clearance to use overland military supersonic ranges.Boom Supersonic is at a critical regulatory approval stage to fly its XB-1 demonstrator at supersonic speeds. Boom Supersonic filed a draft environmental assessment with the Federal Aviation Administration earlier this month.Requesting a waiver to use pre-existing military supersonic range R-2508
The primary point of Boom Supersonic’s filing is to request civilian use of the military range complex called R-2508. The range complex centers on Edwards Air Force Base but also serves the US Army’s Fort Irwin and Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake. Reviewing the Edwards Air Force Base website, there are also national parks in the range complex, such as Death Valley National Park and Kings Canyon National Park, for starters. As such, there are minimum altitudes in parts of the range complex in an attempt at noise reduction.Boom Supersonic’s filing to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) made clear,

“Boom plans to operate all aircraft supersonically only above 30,000 ft Mean Sea Level (MSL) for these flight tests. Depending on the flight test airspeed increments dictated by flight test data from lower speeds, the supersonic portion of the test program is expected to include approximately 10 - 20 supersonic tests, with each supersonic test including up to 2 aircraft (XB-1 and chase, or two chase aircraft) flying supersonically.”

The below ranges that Boom Supersonic wants to use are marked below: Additionally, Boom Supersonic claims that they will be operating higher than the US Military’s supersonic flights.

Why the XB-1 test flights?
According to the filing with the FAA,

“The XB-1 demonstrator aircraft will test design features and operations, develop technologies, and validate tools that aid in reducing later risks associated with the ultimate/final aircraft design. This would enable the development of a safe, airworthy design for the company’s full-size supersonic airliner aircraft, Overture. The focus of testing XB-1 supersonically is to inform and ensure safety.”It is worth noting that XB-1 will have little fuel to conduct supersonic test flights, so flying over water is not feasible. Plus, XB-1, unlike Overture, is intended to only operate from long test runways with very high take-off and landing speeds. Additionally, the XB-1 will only fly 10-20 test flights, but they are still test flights, so using coastal runways with congested airspace is not ideal.What if there are no test flights?
As is the case with US environmental documents, a no-action alternative is required. Boom Aerospace shared with the FAA that a no-action alternative “would negate” the XB-1’s reason for existing. Namely, that the XB-1 is intended to;

Provide data on the flight performance capabilities of several novel technologies that have not been previously flight tested or certified and demonstrate that these technologies would not adversely impact flight safety.The plan is to ensure that the full-size Boom Overture supersonic transport (SST) can fly safely. While Overture’s engines will not be tested in the XB-1, the XB-1 will test the composite and titanium fuselage at supersonic speeds, among other essential things. Below is what Overture will look like in flight:Although other commercial aircraft using composite construction, like the Boeing 787, fly globally today, none fly at supersonic speed. As Concorde found out, supersonic flight with metals changed the length of the aircraft. So, test flights with XB-1 composite construction with carbon fiber at supersonic speed are needed. Bottom line
Boom Supersonic wants the privilege to take the XB-1 on military ranges and go supersonic for test flights, so the impact on those on the ground will be minimal. The test flights ensure the composite and titanium fuselage can handle supersonic stresses before Boom Overtures are built and flown.


I'm still skeptical about the XB-1s relevance given that Boom changed the design of the Overture in 2022. Additionally, USAF will take priority over Boom in this area and the FAA is working on many other things at the moment (like the 737-9) so I remain skeptical.
 
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YorkRailFan

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Today, Boom announced the successful flight of XB-1, the world’s first independently developed supersonic jet, at the Mojave Air & Space Port in Mojave, California. Like Overture, Boom’s supersonic airliner, XB-1 leverages state-of-the-art technologies to enable efficient supersonic flight including carbon fiber composites, advanced avionics, digitally-optimized aerodynamics, and an advanced supersonic propulsion system.Flown by Chief Test Pilot Bill “Doc” Shoemaker, XB-1 took off from the Mojave Air & Space Port and flew in the same airspace that hosted many historic first flights, including the flights of the Bell X-1, the North American X-15, and the Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird.“Today, XB-1 took flight in the same hallowed airspace where the Bell X-1 first broke the sound barrier in 1947,” said Blake Scholl, founder and CEO of Boom Supersonic. “I’ve been looking forward to this flight since founding Boom in 2014, and it marks the most significant milestone yet on our path to bring supersonic travel to passengers worldwide.” “Everyone on the XB-1 team should be incredibly proud of this achievement,” said Bill “Doc” Shoemaker, Chief Test Pilot for Boom Supersonic. “It has been a privilege to share this journey with so many dedicated and talented professionals. The experience we have gained in reaching this milestone will be invaluable to Boom’s revival of supersonic travel.”

Test Pilot Tristan “Geppetto” Brandenburg flew the T-38 chase aircraft which monitored XB-1 in the air. Chase planes accompany new aircraft on their maiden flights to observe how the test plane is handling and verify things like altitude, airspeed, and airworthiness during flight.XB-1 met all of its test objectives, including safely and successfully achieving an altitude of 7,120 feet and speeds up to 238 knots (273 mph). While XB-1 was in the air, the team performed an initial assessment of the aircraft’s handling qualities, including airspeed checks with the T-38 chase aircraft, and assessing the aircraft’s stability in the landing attitude (at a high angle of attack).“Being in the air with XB-1 during its maiden flight is a moment I will never forget,” said Boom Test Pilot Tristan “Geppetto” Brandenburg. “The team has been working hard to get to this point, and seeing today’s flight through mission completion is a huge accomplishment for all of us.”Two decades after Concorde’s retirement, the first flight of XB-1 marks the return of a civil supersonic aircraft to the skies and paves the way for the revival of mainstream supersonic travel onboard Overture, Boom’s sustainable supersonic airliner. Augmented reality vision system: Two nose-mounted cameras, digitally augmented with attitude and flight path indications, feed a high resolution pilot display enabling excellent runway visibility. This system enables improved aerodynamic efficiency without the weight and complexity of a movable nose.“I’ve been waiting over 20 years for an environmentally friendly successor to Concorde and XB-1’s first flight is a major landmark towards my dreams being realized. When I last flew Concorde in 2003 I knew that this day would come. The first flight of the XB-1 supersonic demonstrator is a significant achievement toward making sustainable supersonic flight a reality, aboard Overture – my #1 choice as the successor to Concorde,” said Captain Mike Bannister, former Chief Concorde Pilot for British Airways. “Congratulations to Blake Scholl, all at Boom and especially its pilot, Bill “Doc” Shoemaker. Having been Concorde’s Chief Pilot I envy his role in this exciting return towards mainstream supersonic flight.”

The XB-1 program provides the foundation for Overture’s design and development, while establishing a safety-first culture in engineering and manufacturing. XB-1 validates key technologies and Boom’s own innovations, including:Digitally-optimized aerodynamics: Engineers used computational fluid dynamics simulations to explore thousands of designs for XB-1. The result is an optimized design that combines safe and stable operation at takeoff and landing with efficiency at supersonic speeds.Supersonic intakes: XB-1’s engine intakes slow supersonic air to subsonic speeds, efficiently converting kinetic energy into pressure energy, allowing conventional jet engines to power XB-1 from takeoff through supersonic flight.

“Boom Supersonic is the first civil business entity to create its own X-plane, a supersonic demonstrator,” said Ric Parker, Chair of Singapore Aerospace Programme, former Rolls-Royce CTO and Boom Advisory Council member. “This milestone is on the critical path to deliver Overture, the first supersonic transport aircraft to enter service in over half a century. It is such an exciting time to be involved!”Carbon fiber composites: XB-1 is almost entirely made from carbon fiber composite materials, enabling it to realize a sophisticated aerodynamic design in a strong, lightweight structure.It is fitting that XB-1 took off for the first time from the Mojave Air & Space Port, in airspace known as the home of many firsts in the world of aviation and aerospace. This region in the Mojave Desert is the proving grounds for the aerospace industry, where an aircraft broke the sound barrier for the first time in 1947 and where speed and altitude records are set.

Now that XB-1 has successfully completed its first flight, the team will systematically expand the flight envelope to confirm its performance and handling qualities through and beyond Mach 1. When XB-1 is ready for its first supersonic flight, Test Pilot Tristan “Geppetto” Brandenberg will be at the controls.The inaugural flight of XB-1 takes place as Overture continues to advance toward production, with a growing global network of Tier 1 suppliers and an order book including 130 orders and pre-orders from American Airlines, United Airlines, and Japan Airlines.

“Congratulations to Boom on the XB-1’s first flight,” said Akasaka Yuji, Representative Director, CEO Japan Airlines. “I am looking forward to seeing your realization of sustainable supersonic flight to and from Japan.Overture, Boom's sustainable supersonic airliner, built for speed, safety, and sustainability, in flight over the clouds.
Overture will carry 64-80 passengers at Mach 1.7, about twice the speed of today’s subsonic airliners. Optimized for speed, safety, and sustainability, Overture is designed to run on up to 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

“Boom Supersonic’s remarkable achievements are a testament to the power of dreaming and doing,” said Amy Spowart, President & CEO of The National Aeronautical Association. “Like Sir Frank Whittle, Blake, and Boom, achieved what others tried and no other could with XB-1. Congratulations to the XB-1 team, including Chief Test Pilot, Bill “Doc” Shoemaker! The National Aeronautic Association looks forward to celebrating your milestones in the historic fashion of the shoulders on which we all stand.””

Never thought the day would come for this to happen, I had to check and see if its April 1st. But as I've said before, the XB-1 isn't relevant to the Overture since the Overture being redesigned during the 2022 Farnborough Airshow as its an aerodynamically different aircraft to the XB-1.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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None of the touted high-speed technologies seem to work in hard business terms.
Supersonic, maglev, hyperloop, that rocket thing that was to do UK-Australia in 2 hours by reaching space altitudes (Hotol, Sabre etc), have all failed to get beyond the pilot stage.
None of them seem to scale up to the capacity and all-round capability of conventional aircraft or high speed rail systems.
The aircraft manufacturers themselves are also lukewarm, while still sponsoring research and concept studies.
Net zero is the current game in town, not shorter journey times.

The London-New York business market currently is currently the top global route for premium travel.
But this is not a given for all time as other markets match London as a financial centre (thanks to Brexit and general relative UK economic decline).
"Work from Home" and Zoom/Teams also impact the frequent flyer brigade, just as much as on local commuting.
 

Strathclyder

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Yes without the crash (and 911) it would have survived for a few years longer but would probably have been withdrawn by now due to its age.
Late reply, but yes. Without the Flight 4590 disaster and 9/11 and it's aftermath, Concorde likely would've been retired by the late 2000s at the latest. Both of those events merely hastened the process.
 

philosopher

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The London-New York business market currently is currently the top global route for premium travel.
But this is not a given for all time as other markets match London as a financial centre (thanks to Brexit and general relative UK economic decline).
"Work from Home" and Zoom/Teams also impact the frequent flyer brigade, just as much as on local commuting.
Personally I think there would be quite a demand for supersonic flight, but mostly from very wealthy leisure passengers who want to experience supersonic travel.
 

mpthomson

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Personally I think there would be quite a demand for supersonic flight, but mostly from very wealthy leisure passengers who want to experience supersonic travel.
I think the market has changed significantly. Wealthy leisure passengers want to same kind of space that you now find in the Singapore and Emirates (other airlines are vailable) Suites cabins, some of which have really quite large amounts of space. The days of people wanting to travel in a cramped tube just because it's fast are likely gone.
 

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I think it’s probably worth mentioning that the Boom Overture has 35 firm orders; 15 for United and 20 for American. Unlike any of the hypersonic schemes or indeed any of the supersonic schemes that came after the 1970s, the Boom Overture has firm orders. Combine that with the fact that Boom have now successfully flown a supersonic aircraft (albeit a different design and not yet supersonic), I think this scheme is a lot more promising than any of the others we’ve seen in the last few decades.
If it is successful, I can sure see BA having another crack at supersonic across the pond and reintroducing the BA1/BA2 flights.

I think the market has changed significantly. Wealthy leisure passengers want to same kind of space that you now find in the Singapore and Emirates (other airlines are vailable) Suites cabins, some of which have really quite large amounts of space. The days of people wanting to travel in a cramped tube just because it's fast are likely gone.
On a long flight yes, on a short flight not so much. Super sonic between London and New York brings the journey time down enough that they’d likely be able to get away with short haul levels of comfort even for the premium market.
 

YorkRailFan

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I think it’s probably worth mentioning that the Boom Overture has 35 firm orders; 15 for United and 20 for American.
JAL also has purchase rights for the Overture.
If it is successful, I can sure see BA having another crack at supersonic across the pond and reintroducing the BA1/BA2 flights.
Remember that Concorde only made a profit in its last few years and that was when tickets were discounted.
Unlike any of the hypersonic schemes or indeed any of the supersonic schemes that came after the 1970s, the Boom Overture has firm orders.
Remember how many orders Concorde and the Boeing 2707 had originally?
Combine that with the fact that Boom have now successfully flown a supersonic aircraft (albeit a different design and not yet supersonic),
4 years after originally planned.
 

DanNCL

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Remember that Concorde only made a profit in its last few years and that was when tickets were discounted.
BA made a Profit on Concorde in 1983 and continued to make a profit almost every year after that through to its retirement.

The UK government took major losses for Concorde’s development but those costs didn’t fall on BA, likewise the development costs of the Boom Overture wouldn’t go on the airlines unless (like JAL have) they choose to contribute towards it.

Remember how many orders Concorde and the Boeing 2707 had originally?
Yes I do. But the world is a very different place now compared to back then. The airline market is much more profit driven now, whereas back then it was more image driven - airlines placed orders for Concorde and the 2707 because it would be good for their image without seriously considering how they’d actually use them, airlines wouldn’t place orders in that manner now they’d make sure they were confident of a business case for it first.

I think it’s also perhaps worth noting that the failure of the 2707 was largely down to the US Senate withholding funding for its development, had that funding remained it would very likely have reached the same stage as Concorde.

4 years after originally planned.
There’s been a pandemic in that time so a delay isn’t unexpected. The first test flight still happened which is more than can be said for anything else that’s ever been mooted as a potential Concorde successor.
 

Jimini

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On a long flight yes, on a short flight not so much. Super sonic between London and New York brings the journey time down enough that they’d likely be able to get away with short haul levels of comfort even for the premium market.

I'd agree with this, yes.
 

AlastairFraser

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If it is successful, I can sure see BA having another crack at supersonic across the pond and reintroducing the BA1/BA2 flights.
Could this be the BA1 version from London City to Shannon, pass preclearance then land in JFK? That really would beat the competition with a business/first config.
 

JamesT

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BA made a Profit on Concorde in 1983 and continued to make a profit almost every year after that through to its retirement.

The UK government took major losses for Concorde’s development but those costs didn’t fall on BA, likewise the development costs of the Boom Overture wouldn’t go on the airlines unless (like JAL have) they choose to contribute towards it.
Surely the development costs will eventually fall on those airlines that buy the Overture? Boom aren’t the government that can just absorb losses, their investors will expect a return on the money they’ve put in.
 

YorkRailFan

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There’s been a pandemic in that time so a delay isn’t unexpected. The first test flight still happened which is more than can be said for anything else that’s ever been mooted as a potential Concorde successor.
As I've said before, the XB-1 is aerodynamically different to the Overture so is almost irrelevant.
Yes I do. But the world is a very different place now compared to back then. The airline market is much more profit driven now, whereas back then it was more image driven - airlines placed orders for Concorde and the 2707 because it would be good for their image without seriously considering how they’d actually use them, airlines wouldn’t place orders in that manner now they’d make sure they were confident of a business case for it first.
Which makes airlines even less likely to order the Overture as it is a risky aircraft to operate.
BA made a Profit on Concorde in 1983 and continued to make a profit almost every year after that through to its retirement.

The UK government took major losses for Concorde’s development but those costs didn’t fall on BA, likewise the development costs of the Boom Overture wouldn’t go on the airlines unless (like JAL have) they choose to contribute towards it.
On the actual purchase of Concorde? I believe that was in the 2000's.

Boom hasn't received funding since November 2023, the reason Concorde kept going is because the UK and France kept pooring money into it. The US stopped funding the 2707 so it died. There has been no supersonic airliner that has entered into service that wasn't a State-Funded project.
 

DanNCL

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As I've said before, the XB-1 is aerodynamically different to the Overture so is almost irrelevant.
It isn’t irrelevant though. It’s proof that the company is capable of developing supersonic tech.

Which makes airlines even less likely to order the Overture as it is a risky aircraft to operate.
Which means for two airlines to place firm orders now, they must be confident that the Overture will be successful.

On the actual purchase of Concorde? I believe that was in the 2000's.

Boom hasn't received funding since November 2023, the reason Concorde kept going is because the UK and France kept pooring money into it. The US stopped funding the 2707 so it died. There has been no supersonic airliner that has entered into service that wasn't a State-Funded project.
BA paid £16.5 million for the airframes. They made £14 million profit on Concorde in 1983 alone, by 1987 the annual profit was up to £54 million. So in all likelihood BA will have made a profit on the purchase of Concorde in 1984.
Concorde was a nice money maker for BA. Air France is another story but that’s largely because they got their route and marketing strategy wrong.

The difference between Boom with the Overture and Boeing with the 2707 is that the former didn’t pull the plug on development the second Congress refused to find it, whereas the latter did.
There are many more potential sources of private funding now than there were in 1971 when the 2707 was cancelled and privately funded projects have been successful in other similar areas, take for example Virgin Galactic with their sub-orbital spaceplanes and SpaceX with their private orbital space flights on Dragon, nothing funded in a remotely similar manner to either of those privately funded programs would have been conceivable in the 70s which is the last time anyone seriously had a go at developing Supersonic airliners.
 

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I very much doubt that any airline has "placed firm orders" for this thing. More likely is that they have reserved delivery positions, which is exactly what happened with Concorde. Only BA and Air France eventually placed firm orders for Concorde, all the other airlines merely payed a deposit for delivery positions.
British Airways made a profit with Concorde in the same way that I could make a profit running a local taxi service with brand new Rolls Royce Phantoms, i.e. if you give them and the spares to me for nothing so I only have to pay the fuel and crew costs.
 

DanNCL

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I very much doubt that any airline has "placed firm orders" for this thing. More likely is that they have reserved delivery positions, which is exactly what happened with Concorde. Only BA and Air France eventually placed firm orders for Concorde, all the other airlines merely payed a deposit for delivery positions.
British Airways made a profit with Concorde in the same way that I could make a profit running a local taxi service with brand new Rolls Royce Phantoms, i.e. if you give them and the spares to me for nothing so I only have to pay the fuel and crew costs.
Two airlines have placed firm orders in the traditional manner, United Airlines for 15 aircraft and American Airlines for 20 aircraft.
United have also reserved further delivery slots, they have options for 35 aircraft on top of the 15 in the firm order.
Of course, a firm order still doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll actually take delivery of any aircraft. But it makes it considerably more likely that they will.

JAL have pre-ordered in the same fashion as the various unfulfilled Concorde orders, reportedly so has “an unnamed European carrier”.
 

mpthomson

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Two airlines have placed firm orders in the traditional manner, United Airlines for 15 aircraft and American Airlines for 20 aircraft.
United have also reserved further delivery slots, they have options for 35 aircraft on top of the 15 in the firm order.
Of course, a firm order still doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll actually take delivery of any aircraft. But it makes it considerably more likely that they will.

JAL have pre-ordered in the same fashion as the various unfulfilled Concorde orders, reportedly so has “an unnamed European carrier”.
Airlines do that all the time, they can also just cancel them with minimal financial loss if needed or if the project looks like it isn't going to do what it was supposed to. Again, Concorde is a perfect example of this.
 

DanNCL

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Airlines do that all the time, they can also just cancel them with minimal financial loss if needed or if the project looks like it isn't going to do what it was supposed to. Again, Concorde is a perfect example of this.
Concorde isn’t a perfect example of this as the ‘orders’ for Concorde were more akin to options. The orders from American and United for the Overture are firm orders. Of course, they can still cancel them, but it’s not as easy as just walking away like it is with options.
 

mpthomson

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Concorde isn’t a perfect example of this as the ‘orders’ for Concorde were more akin to options. The orders from American and United for the Overture are firm orders. Of course, they can still cancel them, but it’s not as easy as just walking away like it is with options.
There'll be clauses about delays etc that mean they can still walk away at minimal cost to themselves if they choose to.
 

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