Would Go Ahead consider a Scottish purchase?

[upasalmon]

With Go Ahead running a Dublin operation would they ever consider a Scottish acquisition? I think a firm running in the Greater Glasgow region would be suitable such as McGills or West Coast Motors. I know Arriva quit that region but one or both would be a stronger set up. Obviously Stagecoach and First are dominant, but I am surprised Go Ahead have not considered a Scottish operation.

 

[Robertj21a]

With Go Ahead running a Dublin operation would they ever consider a Scottish acquisition? I think a firm running in the Greater Glasgow region would be suitable such as McGills or West Coast Motors. I know Arriva quit that region but one or both would be a stronger set up. Obviously Stagecoach and First are dominant, but I am surprised Go Ahead have not considered a Scottish operation.

How do you know that they haven't ?

 

[Arriva Fan]

I think Glasgow City Bus and their associated operations would be a good fit for GoAhead.

 

[Surreyman]

I can't imagine any Bus company making an acquisition in the current climate, management are trying to keep the ship afloat and they need every penny to see them through the crisis.

 

[overthewater]

There was that Rumor Go-ahead wanted to buy McGills.. Even made it into the paper,

 

[upasalmon]

How do you know that they haven't ?

Unawareness I am afraid.

 

[Tetchytyke]

If the right business comes up at the right price, of course they would!

 

[route101]

I think Glasgow City Bus and their associated operations would be a good fit for GoAhead.

They hardly have any routes depsite there name.

 

[cnjb8]

Pre covid, I don't see why they wouldn't

 

[Llandudno]

I wish they would buy a certain Welsh one...!

 

[winston270twm]

I can't imagine any Bus company making an acquisition in the current climate, management are trying to keep the ship afloat and they need every penny to see them through the crisis.

The current market creates opportunities for the strongest financially to take out the weakest at a fraction of the cost

 

[PaulMc7]

I think if they were going to go anywhere taking over from Mcgills would be the best bet. Glasgow is one of First's top operations so I doubt they'd give it up cheap

 

[Volvodart]

McGill's did not make much profits even before all this started, so they may not get a good price if they did sell. When they were looking to buy bus companies, it was suggested this was to get the profits up for a future sale.

 

[Stan Drews]

McGill's did not make much profits even before all this started, so they may not get a good price if they did sell. When they were looking to buy bus companies, it was suggested this was to get the profits up for a future sale.

Their last available accounts showed an operating profit margin of just under 5% (£1.8m), which isn’t unreasonable away from the large UK listed PLCs.
The current “regulated” environment doesn’t make any allowance for a profit to be made, and I suspect that may continue for some time as the pandemic fallout continues.

 

[Dorsetbus]

I wish they would buy a certain Welsh one...!

Newport?

 

[tbtc]

For the right price, sure. But it'd have to be a meaty enough operation to warrant dipping your toes into the market north of the border, some way from the existing reaches of the empire.

If you assume that First/ Stagecoach/ National Express are keeping their current networks, and that Lothian Buses aren't being privatised any time soon, then that really only leaves McGills - West Coast look a bit too "niche" IMHO.

The problems with McGills are many - they seemed to spread themselves too thinly with the Lanarkshire/ Dumbartonshire expansion - the owners appear "characters" - the Inverclyde and Monklands area still seem "bandit" territory... you might be able to reach some kind of "peace" with First (I don't know what relations are like between the two around Hampshire, which is about the only place that the two have overlapped in the medium term?) but it might be slim pickings.

You might be brave to enter Scotland whilst politicians are making noises about regulation, though, that said, they did buy First out in the city of Manchester.

 

[Surreyman]

The current market creates opportunities for the strongest financially to take out the weakest at a fraction of the cost

I get your point but even the likes of Stagecoach & Go Ahead would only be tempted by sizeable businesses & these are few in number, maybe if Wellglade or Transdev were on offer?
Smaller Operators in Regulated London might be attractive too.
I can see Companies taking on 'sudden short notice tenders/contracts where another operator goes into administration, I can even see that they might register a new commercial service ditto above.
Why would anyone want to acquire a company with existing staff with their liabilities, pensions etc? Ditto depots/property.
In the current climate, staff could be recruited 'new' and if extra vehicles were required, they could be sourced from the secondhand market.
I note that double deckers are now much in demand but I can see many mid-life coaches being scrapped prematurely.

 

[Jordan Adam]

If you assume that First/ Stagecoach/ National Express are keeping their current networks, and that Lothian Buses aren't being privatised any time soon, then that really only leaves McGills - West Coast look a bit too "niche" IMHO.

WCM seem to be in quite a good positional financially and fairly well run so i can't see them going up for sale. McGill's is possible, it really depends if they manage to recover post pandemic as they have been struggling in recent years.

I wouldn't rule it out entirely but i can't see any sales at First and if it were it would be a depot (such as Balfron) rather than a full opco. Stagecoach it's more difficult to predict, certainly i wouldn't rule out Highlands being split up and/or sold. Caithness in particular, if Stagecoach lost the Dounrey contracts they'd likely pull out as nothing else really makes much money up there, even the X99 isn't really a great money maker. If part of Highlands was to be sold i find a independent taking on the services to be a more likely outcome than a national operator stepping in, the Fort William sale is perhaps a prime example. A national operator is going to want an area that already makes a decent profit or has good growth potential, the Highlands on the most part has neither, whereas an independent family run business with far less overheads doesn't need the same revenue to make it profitable.

Lastly an Xplore Dundee sale i find highly unlikely, if any of the "big 5" were to expand in Scotland it would most probably be NX.

 

[PaulMc7]

I think if anyone was to make a new operation work in these current times it would be some going tbh. Inverclyde doesn't seem that great given that the M8 is there into Glasgow and also the train too. Never really seen any Mcgills buses being that busy when I've been down that way.

As far as the rest of Mcgills network goes there's not much room for massive improvement. Paisley town centre isn't as attractive to visit as it was before and if Intu are still having problems god knows what the future of Braehead shopping centre will be. The buses through Barrhead haven't been that busy when I've seen them either.

I don't think it would be the smartest move for Go Ahead but I'm not sure where else in Scotland would be currently either

 

[overthewater]

The problems with McGills are many - they seemed to spread themselves too thinly with the Lanarkshire/ Dumbartonshire expansion - the owners appear "characters" - the Inverclyde and Monklands area still seem "bandit" territory... you might be able to reach some kind of "peace" with First (I don't know what relations are like between the two around Hampshire, which is about the only place that the two have overlapped in the medium term?) but it might be slim pickings.

You might be brave to enter Scotland whilst politicians are making noises about regulation, though, that said, they did buy First out in the city of Manchester.

Monkland and parts of North Lanarkshire have been left to rot for nearly 20 years and I dare say it would only take deep pockets and a london style bus network to get passengers back from the cars they were mostly forced into getting.

##

They is plenty of better opportunities for Go- Ahead south of the border, like grabbing some of Arriva areas etc.

 

[Stan Drews]

WCM seem to be in quite a good positional financially and fairly well run so i can't see them going up for sale. McGill's is possible, it really depends if they manage to recover post pandemic as they have been struggling in recent years.

I’m intrigued by the references to McGill’s struggling (not just by you), and curious to know the basis of such assumptions. They seem to invest fairly regularly in new vehicles and have a reasonable core network of services, albeit they are clearly suffering the same as every other operator as footfall on our traditional high streets fall.

 

[Jordan Adam]

I’m intrigued by the references to McGill’s struggling (not just by you), and curious to know the basis of such assumptions. They seem to invest fairly regularly in new vehicles and have a reasonable core network of services, albeit they are clearly suffering the same as every other operator as footfall on our traditional high streets fall.

Struggling is perhaps an over exaggeration but there was a period in 2019 where they weren't doing so well. The closure of Barrhead Depot among other things is a good example.

 

[Great_Western]

Newport?

As a Newport native, I wish any of the big groups would pick up our horror show of a bus company. Even Rotala would represent an improvement...

 

[Stan Drews]

Struggling is perhaps an over exaggeration but there was a period in 2019 where they weren't doing so well. The closure of Barrhead Depot among other things is a good example.

Did that not coincide with the entry into service of the 25 new E200MMC’s? Not many operators make a multi-million pound investment when they are struggling. Perhaps they weren’t?