I believe Rhydgaled is simply stating that of the three trains running Carmarthen - Llanelli, one would continue to Cardiff via the SDL, while the other two continue to Swansea. They won't be shuttles as proposed, if I understand correctly. Though I don't think this level of service will be possible until the Gowerton re-doubling has been done.
Thank you, that is correct. I was simply trying to show what the frequency would be over each section of line under my proposals.
Indeed, 2tph into Swansea from the west, on top of the HOWL services, would probably not be possible without the Gowerton re-double. However since we are talking post-electrification and the Gowerton project should be complete next year (if the assumption I have made based on my observations from the train today are correct work has already started on the replacment viaduct) this should not be a cause for concern. Rolling stock would be more of a problem, but hopefully the expantion of electrification will help with that.
I may stand corrected here, but the service already is one daily service Carmarthen <> London for about 290 days a year.
I don't know how many days a year it works out as, but I'm pretty sure the Intercity service frequency west of Swansea is:
Mondays to Fridays and Winter Saturdays
- 1x Morning Carmarthen to London Paddington service
- 1x Afternoon/Evening London Paddington to Carmarthen
Summer Saturdays
- 1x Morning Swansea to Pembroke Dock service
- 1x Morning London Paddington to Pembroke Dock service (the 'Pembroke Coast Express', arriving around lunch time)
- 1x Morning Carmarthen to London Paddington service
- 1x Afternoon/Evening London Paddington to Carmarthen service
- 2x Pembroke Dock to London Paddington services (the morning one being the 'Pembroke Coast Express' I think)
Sundays
- 3x Carmarthen to London Paddington services
- 3x London Paddington to Carmarthen services
The railway will never be able to compete with the M4. It's the harsh but simple fact of it.
Agreed. The geography of the area and the road and rail systems ensure that this is an inescapable fact.
Quite, the geography of the area and the road and rail systems ensure that the route via Swansea High Street cannot compete with the M4. However, the SDL might just. If even the SDL does not have the potential to compete with the M4, then maybe it should be reduced to freight-only and everything from the west terminated at Swansea. However we need to be absolutely confident that even the SDL would be unable to compete before we abandon it.
The AA route planner is my normal source for the road journey time I use for comparison. Carmarthen - Cardiff, it says, is around 1hr 19mins. By rail, going by the East Coast journey planner, the best time I can find (I'm using a Saturday) via Swansea is 1hr 38mins. Leaving Carmarthen at 14:23, the Fishguard boat train takes 1hr 28mins, and I think that's timed for the 75mph units that are diagramed, not a 90mph class 158.
But it doesn't stop there, the non-stop Carmarthen - Llanelli time on the boat train is given as 22mins, and a search for trains avoiding Swansea, with no changes, between Llanelli and Port Talbot presents two non-stop trains, taking 29 and 32mins. The fastest Cardiff - Port Talbot time seems to be 30mins. I think 22 + 32 + 30 equals 1hr 24mins, if we say the SDL can be traversed in 30mins in both directions then CDF - Llanelli is one hour, plus 22mins to Carmarthen is 1hr 22mins.
When I quote that AA journey planner time, I am normally told that Cardiff traffic jams and trying to find a parking space would add quite a bit to that journey time. Therefore, the SDL journey time from Carmarthen to central Cardiff of 1hr 25mins might actually be similar to driving. However, as I tend to say to those who play the Cardiff traffic card, if you are headed for England you can avoid that and stay on the M4. So, the M4 still wins for journeys beyond Cardiff, but consider the following quotes from RailFuture's report on the SDL, 'West Wales Direct':
the Swansea District Line has an overall line speed of 50 mph, but with some severe speed restrictions at several points. The latter are not too serious for a freight-only line, but there is a need to raise line speeds for passenger trains if the maximum benefit in journey time reductions is to be achieved. As noted previously, the summer Cardiff-Fishguard train, hauled by a 40-year old locomotive and subject to these speed restrictions, nevertheless achieved a faster journey than scheduled through services via Swansea High Street.
Currently there are several speed restrictions on the route which need attending to if regular passenger trains are to traverse the line. But
despite these restrictions, the Cardiff-Fishguard Harbour service which used this route in some recent summers achieved a journey time reduction of 15 to 20 minutes (Bridgend-Llanelli) compared with the small number of fast through trains at that time which ran via Swansea station, and reversed there.
It sounds like times could be brought down quite a bit if the line was upgraded to passenger standards. Even bringing the whole lot up to 50mph would make quite a difference. It is probably possible to make most of it take 60 or 75mph running, perhaps even faster, which would bring times down still more. Maybe then rail could compete for long-distance journies from Carmarthen and points west.
I'd say start by introducing a service in alternate hours, taking the presently possible 1hr 25min Carmarthen - Cardiff journey time and using class 158s. That should at least safeguard the present capability, allowing for an increase to hourly frequency with linespeed upgrades at a later date if it is decided to try to make rail compete for journeys beyond Cardiff.
Anyway, it needs to be decided whether we want the rail network from Carmarthen westwards to be competitive for journies beyond Swansea/Neath. If we do, then we need to ensure the SDL is used. If we don't, then why do we have Manchester - Carmarthen/Milford services?
But as you said yourself, London was a more popular answer than Cardiff on this wishlist.
Also people naturally think of the train as the way to get to London, whereas even discounting private cars they are more likely to have other choices to reach more local destinations.
Agreed. This is one reason why I refered to the Cardiff figure, since the London figure is likely to be skewed by the 'London effect'.
People are always going to suggest places that their town/village has poor links to in such surveys.
Perhaps, but in the case of Fishguard there were poor links to everywhere at the time (just one boat train per day, plus the night-time boat train).
In what context was this found?
North Pembrokeshire Transport Fourm 2004 (download links
here and
here).
Bi Mode is likely to happen. Unless you get a HST for your sins....
However likely it is to happen, it doesn't mean it is the only way forward, or the best way. Far fewer heavy and poluting diesel engines would be needed if they were in the form of locos hauling trains just over the infrequent sections of Intercity service where electrification isn't justified.
The only way to really escape Bi-mode is if WAG finds money for electrification to Carmarthan.
It's almost a pity there were no other Class 89s around, could just use that to haul a TDM fitted HST set to Sawnsea......
But oh well.
89s or no 89s, you still need TDM fitted diesel locos. If you find some of those, you could use my old, now almost-retired idea, and divert some of the IEPs destined for GWML to the ECML to send the IC225s over to the Great Western. However, if you are buying new TDM-fitted diesel locos anyway I figured you might as well get some new electric locos too and leave the IC225s where they are. Electrification to Carmarthen makes no sense, you'd still have Pembroke Dock beyond the wires (and Fishguard and Milford Haven services to worry about). I think the split to the three branches means it's all or nothing, and 'all' is far too expensive.
