HS2 Northern Branches Discussion

[Padav]

@Haydn1971: Whilst I can see the support for Mayfield, especially with so many services using Piccadill. I'm concious that there is considerably more work required to get a HS line into Mayfield and out the other end for continuation onwards to Liverpool and Preston.

Sorry, where did you arrive at the idea that the Manchester City Centre Station would be anything other than a terminus?

Perhaps I'm wrong but I had always understood that the station in Manchester City Centre would not be through running - a spur line would link phase 2 back into the WCML somewhere close to Warrington, although at what point that spur would branch off I am not certain - perhaps that original plan has now been amended slightly with the spur line leaving phase 2 further south, somewhere near Crewe?

If the Manchester City Centre Station site is not through running this changes, profoundly, the nature of site chosen for its location? Mayfield would certainly fit the bill in such circumstances?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Sorry, where did you arrive at the idea that the Manchester City Centre Station would be anything other than a terminus?

Indeed so. I too had assumed that both Manchester and Leeds were to be terminal railway stations at the end of the bifurcated route northwards from Birmingham.

 

[Haydn1971]

Manchester has to provide some form of through route to the north in the same way as Birmingham does under Phase 1 - it's looking increasingly likely that East Midlands and South Yorkshire will be out of town stations, there isn't any clear way to provide a through route for Leeds, nor for that matter Manchester, so both will logically end up as city centre spurs from the HS mainline connections to the ECML and WCML

Piccadilly and Mayfield might be ideal for a Manchester terminus, but don't provide good access for the massive urban sprall to the west and north of Manchester so don't logically provide a good income stream of passengers. Why use HS2 when you need a long transfer from the rest of Lancashire, when other operators will run a slower direct service on classic lines ? HS2 needs to maximise passenger footfall, not establish one city with a good link south.
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Indeed so. I too had assumed that both Manchester and Leeds were to be terminal railway stations at the end of the bifurcated route northwards from Birmingham.

Really ? I'm suprised at such a suggestion that classic comparable services from Newcastle, Preston, Liverpool, Glasgow & Edinburgh would be forced down slow lines into Leeds and Manchester losing at least a good 15-20 minutes of advantage and necessitating a driver to swap ends in the process.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Really ? I'm surprised at such a suggestion that classic comparable services from Newcastle, Preston, Liverpool, Glasgow & Edinburgh would be forced down slow lines into Leeds and Manchester losing at least a good 15-20 minutes of advantage and necessitating a driver to swap ends in the process.

I assumed that HS2 as discussed in its first entity was there to continue the fast route northwards from Birmingham via its "Y"-shaped axis to both Manchester and to Leeds during its first construction proposals.

Have I therefore misread matters and the HS2 documentation did in fact propose onward line extensions in that very first self-same construction proposal (meaning that HS3 would be an adjunct to continuation of lines from both the finally-approved Leeds and Manchester core railway stations).

For my edification, can some kindly forum member, who has read the HS2 proposals in full, be so kind as to inform me whatsoever is the actual nominated HS2 route in the document, that runs northwards from Birmingham and of the time scale to which these nominated settlements are stated to be reached.

 

[steamdrivenand]

We're all speculating here (unless anyone has worked on the HS2 North project team) as very, very little has been released about the routes or the strategic objectives.

However with Brum as an example with its bypassing main line and spur into the city centre it would be sensible for the planners to opt for similar solutions for Leeds and Manc.

City Centre terminal stations could paint themselves into a corner for the future and cost more in terms of urban land prices, compensation and construction costs. I know from experience that a lot of business traffic in Leeds arrives by car and Parkway stations out of the cities, linked to the major road network, cater for that type of customer much better than city centre sites.

As I posted earlier all that makes really good sense, so that's maybe one good reason that HS2 won't have gone for it.

 

[Haydn1971]

I assumed that HS2 as discussed in its first entity was there to continue the fast route northwards from Birmingham via its "Y"-shaped axis to both Manchester and to Leeds during its first construction proposals.

You will probably have read this document - http://www.hs2.org.uk/assets/x/85359

My reading in chapter 3 is that classic compatable services will link onto existing mainline routes and beyond with 105 captive sets and 83 classic compatable sets in the final "Y" network - what other reason would classic compatable sets be required other than to provide onward services to places beyond the reach of the larger gauge of the HS2 network ?

I'm speculating that perhaps extensions to York and Preston could be easy to clear to HS2 guage but not for speed as connections to the WCML & ECML, but places like Liverpool, Middlesborough, Lancaster, Newcastle, Glasgow, Endinburgh and perhaps Perth, Dundee and Aberdeen would need the classic compatable stock.

The WCML, ECML and MML as we know them now, won't be the same beasts, with direct long distance passengers to London from north of Leeds and Manchester being sucked into using HS2 and the WCML & ECML affectively cut short to a Cross Country type secondary service north of the M62

 

[Cheshire Rover]

We are already well served with fast trains to London from both Macclesfield and Wilmslow stations, if you are unaware of this fact.
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Not forgetting the hoped-to-be expansion of "Ardwick International Exchange"..
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A most unusual situation, with the aristocrats taking the parts in a reverse-role revival of Les Miserables...

Paul, you are demonstrating my point entirely. Until the national interest overcomes Nimbyism then we will not got a decent infrastructure.

On your earlier point regarding Manchester Airport, if it brings thousands of well paid and skilled jobs plus becomes a regional asset then I'm all for building on whatever land is necessary.

 

[PR1Berske]

Very interesting post. I can see what you mean - turn the "spines" into effectively shuttle services with the HS2 line as what is now "the London track".

 

[northwichcat]

What about the Granada Studios site as a HS2 terminus? That's a large central site which is leased from Manchester City Council and has no firm plans for future use after the middle of 2013 when ITV Granada move out.

 

[steamdrivenand]

Very interesting post. I can see what you mean - turn the "spines" into effectively shuttle services with the HS2 line as what is now "the London track".

But would that mean a high proportion of northern customers changing trains at the hub stations in order to go south? That'll stir up the shires.

 

[Chris125]

I agree that this is one area of HS2 govt. strategy where I have grave misgivings; in my opinion the DfT and HS2 Ltd have seriously underestimated demand for through running services and it may well be that even before Phase 2 is up and running (scheduled for 2033) the folly of providing a capacity constrained single line link between HS2 and HS1 will already have become obvious – the government apparently baulked at the reported £3bn cost of a full spec twin bore tunnel and went for the cheapo cut down option instead – cost approx £0.5bn

The problem is capacity on HS2 - there's no point spending billions on a HS1-2 link so it can handle more international service's if there's no room for them north of OOC.

It's unlikely Manchester and Birmingham are going to be filling 400m train's to Paris, and with plans for Eurostar and DB to serve a greater variety of destinations from St Pancras anyway it makes far more sense to spend a fraction of the cost of a twin track connection on a decent interchange between Euston and St Pancras.

Piccadilly and Mayfield might be ideal for a Manchester terminus, but don't provide good access for the massive urban sprall to the west and north of Manchester so don't logically provide a good income stream of passengers.

There's urban sprawl all around Manchester so it's always going to be nearer some area's than other's - what matters is connectivity and as Piccadilly has the best heavy rail and tram connections with the region, other area's of Manchester and is well situated for the city centre it is the natural place for the HS2 station to be.

I'm speculating that perhaps extensions to York and Preston could be easy to clear to HS2 guage but not for speed as connections to the WCML & ECML...

Apart from a short section of the NLL aside i believe HS2 Ltd have ruled out gauge clearance for captive HS2 stock on existing line's. The cost couldn't be justified and there would be issues with the need to cut back platform edges for example.

Chris

 

[Haydn1971]

But would that mean a high proportion of northern customers changing trains at the hub stations in order to go south? That'll stir up the shires.

Not at all, i would imagine the classic comparable trains will run on a variety of stopping patterns, you might get 2tph from Newcastle, one going direct to London, the other stopping at all stops inbetween, then one of these services might service for example somewhere inbetween at key times. The captive trains will only service the stations that are built to accomodate the larger carriage gauge. You could also see a 200m classic compatable train from say Glasgow bring coupled to a 200m train from Liverpool at a Manchester Parkway station (Manchester Airport perhaps) then continuing south to London as a 400m classic compatable.

 

[steamdrivenand]

You could also see a 200m classic compatable train from say Glasgow bring coupled to a 200m train from Liverpool at a Manchester Parkway station (Manchester Airport perhaps) then continuing south to London as a 400m classic compatable.

And before you know it we'll be running slip coaches for Wolverhampton and Stafford

 

[6Gman]

You could also see a 200m classic compatable train from say Glasgow bring coupled to a 200m train from Liverpool at a Manchester Parkway station (Manchester Airport perhaps) then continuing south to London as a 400m classic compatable.

I would have thought there would - on reliability grounds - be a great reluctance to combine trains en route.

 

[Haydn1971]

What about the Granada Studios site as a HS2 terminus?

How do existing services connect ?

 

[steamdrivenand]

Of course we're going to go through an odd transition phase, lasting quite a few years, when HS2 is complete to Lichfield and the 'Y's' are being built. Then the service pattern will all change again once through running on HS2 to Leeds and Manchester is possible. Still I suppose it's better that transitions last years rather than weeks, so the services can bed down.
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How do existing services connect ?

Especially when water on one side of the site causes restrictions on access and construction.

 

[Haydn1971]

I would have thought there would - on reliability grounds - be a great reluctance to combine trains en route.

I've no real knowledge of the coupling technology available, but suspect its possible now. As for long term reliability, any experts out there ? Is it done on other networks ?

The captive 400m long trains are expected to run as two 200m coupled units, presumably at peak periods. I can only assume that 200m single units will run off peak or as unit that splits/joins somewhere north of Birmingham International or south of the Heathrow Spur (Phase 2), both of which will require couplings and uncouplings a number of times a day for some units. Other wise, why not just order plain 400m trains ?

 

[Padav]

@Chris125: "It's unlikely Manchester and Birmingham are going to be filling 400m train's to Paris"

Why - I looked only a matter of days ago and there were no less than seven daily flights from Manchester to Paris - I'm struggling to comprehend the oft repeated argument that just because the journey is an hour longer (when HS2 phase 2 is up and running the journey time between a Manchester South station [at Manchester Airport?] and the junction of HS1 in London will be approx. 65 mins) from Manchester this negates the commercial demand for High Speed Rail travel from UK provincial cities.

Please explain to me why that extra hour (and a bit) means demand for an alternative, rail borne, mode of city to city transport falls off a cliff because I've never bought into that argument?

We'll have a very good indicator in perhaps little more than a year when the new e320 rolling stock comes on stream, enabling Eurostar to expand their portfolio of direct destinations from St. Pancras; Amsterdam, Frankfurt/Köln, Geneva, Lyon and Marseille have been mentioned as possible new services - all of those journeys will exceed the magic 3 hour threshold so we'll find out pretty quickly if the appetite of UK based travellers is diminished or not by an extra hour or so of journey time?

What we do know already is that wherever High Speed Rail goes head to head on a level playing field against short-haul air, guess which means of travel wins out, every single time - let's just say I won't be investing any money in the shares of Jet2.com, EasyJet, FlyBe or RyanAir?

 

[Haydn1971]

Of course we're going to go through an odd transition phase, lasting quite a few years, when HS2 is complete to Lichfield and the 'Y's' are being built. Then the service pattern will all change again once through running on HS2 to Leeds and Manchester is possible. Still I suppose it's better that transitions last years rather than weeks, so the services can bed down.

I'd not really thought about this until your post, but given the construction period of 2018-2026, the concept of phased opening comes up. To me, the obvious thing to do is prioritise completion of the core track between Birmingham International and Old Oak Common, the depot in within that section. Aim for a 2022 completion of this first bit, start taking delivery of a small number of captive units in time for trials and training, gradually build up the stock through 2022/2023, introduction of a basic captive service in 2024, the ends gradually complete out to provide linkage directly into London and Birmingham by 2025, completion of the WCML & HS1 connections in 2026, transfer of some WCML crews to the captive services in 2026, rolling into 2027-2028 for extended services to the eastern side of the Pennines.

 

[HSTEd]

Why - I looked only a matter of days ago and there were no less than seven daily flights from Manchester to Paris - I'm struggling to comprehend the oft repeated argument that just because the journey is an hour longer (when HS2 phase 2 is up and running the journey time between a Manchester South station [at Manchester Airport?] and the junction of HS1 in London will be approx. 65 mins) from Manchester this negates the commercial demand for High Speed Rail travel from UK provincial cities.

There may be seven daily flights, but a check of the various aircraft used on those flights suggests that they are primarily aircraft in the A318 range (or indeed smaller), which have a maximum of 132 seats.

7 x 132 seats is 945 seats, which fills somewhere in the region of a single 400m trainset, especially if they are double deck trainsets.

These planes are tiny compared to the train sets likely to be used on these services.

 

[steamdrivenand]

There's an interesting paper written for Staffs County Council covering the development and effects of HS2 http://www.staffordshire.gov.uk/tra...hspeedrail/HS2inStaffordshire-FinalReport.pdf

 

[6Gman]

I've no real knowledge of the coupling technology available, but suspect its possible now. As for long term reliability, any experts out there ? Is it done on other networks ?

The captive 400m long trains are expected to run as two 200m coupled units, presumably at peak periods. I can only assume that 200m single units will run off peak or as unit that splits/joins somewhere north of Birmingham International or south of the Heathrow Spur (Phase 2), both of which will require couplings and uncouplings a number of times a day for some units. Other wise, why not just order plain 400m trains ?

I don't think the issue is technical, it's operational.

If the train from Liverpool is right-time but the Glasgow portion is 25" late what do you do? Hold the Liverpool for the Glasgow? Send them separately (taking up another path and needing extra traincrew)?

 

[Chris125]

Please explain to me why that extra hour (and a bit) means demand for an alternative, rail borne, mode of city to city transport falls off a cliff because I've never bought into that argument?

Though the extra hour doesn't help, i was thinking about the overall level of demand - Manchester or Birmingham are not going to produce the same level of demand for travel to Paris as London and certainly not with the limited service that can be fitted on HS2.

Chris

 

[HSTEd]

I don't think the issue is technical, it's operational.

If the train from Liverpool is right-time but the Glasgow portion is 25" late what do you do? Hold the Liverpool for the Glasgow? Send them separately (taking up another path and needing extra traincrew)?

Truncate the late running portion service at Birmingham International and transfer the passengers to a normal train to Euston, give them a connecting ticket on a Eurostar service from St Pancras.

 

[Padav]

@HSTEd: "7 x 132 seats is 945 seats, which fills somewhere in the region of a single 400m trainset, especially if they are double deck trainsets.

These planes are tiny compared to the train sets likely to be used on these services."

I wasn't expecting a plethora of daily services from Manchester to Paris - even one train a day (possibly increasing to two over time) in each direction would be sufficient to cater for demand?

The point I'm making here is that I refute the argument often advanced in circles hostile to HS2, that services from UK provincial cities to the near European mainland are simply not viable - I believe this assumption is just plain wrong but unless and until HS2 becomes reality, I can't prove the veracity of my claim.

 

[Haydn1971]

Truncate the late running portion service at Birmingham International and transfer the passengers to a normal train to Euston, give them a connecting ticket on a Eurostar service from St Pancras.

Thank you

I've just been reading the technical project spec for HS2 (again) and note that there is a requirement for coupling facilities at all HS2 stations - I'd suggest that joining trains is a big part of the longer term maximisation of the Birmingham to London section.

Reading through further, 10tpd are anticipated in the day, 14tph at peak, increasing to 18tph with future signalling advances, yet a maximum requirement for 20tph - that's a lot of trains

 

[steamdrivenand]

I presume the one train every 3 mins will be on the Birmingham to Euston section as I bet there'll be some trains that don't run through at peak times and with the split just north of Birmingham that would mean that the 'Y' sections run at roughly a train every 6 mins which is below line capacity unless they build the 'Y' to a lesser capable spec.

 

[Haydn1971]

I presume the one train every 3 mins will be on the Birmingham to Euston section as I bet there'll be some trains that don't run through at peak times and with the split just north of Birmingham that would mean that the 'Y' sections run at roughly a train every 6 mins which is below line capacity unless they build the 'Y' to a lesser capable spec.

Well not quite, some trains would be 400m long running to Leeds and Manchester from Birmingham, some might be 200m and couple at either of the West Midlands stations. I've not seen mention anywhere but there is also the option of running a 200/260m classic compatable train on a cross country type pattern, using 400kph lines north of Birmingham, dropping onto classic lines south of Birmingham. But as yet, I've seen no evidence of connections to classic lines southwest of Birmingham or to the east of the current HS2 Ph1 route, to say Leicester-Northampton/Bedford etc, taking advantage of spare capacity in WCML or MML created by HS2 Ph1

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Since the matter of my earlier postings had been addressed, can I now ask for historical precedent, the reasons why Eurostar was never originally extended to Manchester (Remember the comment in my posting # 27...Le Eurostar habite ici)

 

[steamdrivenand]

I recall a lot of PR driven stuff about through trains to Paris etc from Edinburgh and Leeds etc way back in the mid '90's but it never happened. I never heard what stopped it and wonder if this time with HS2 will be the same.