Cambrian hourly service consultation

[The Planner]

Unless you decide to have a dedicated mini fleet of Voyagers with ERTMS I can't see anyone taking on the cost until it is rolled out properly across the network.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No. The same 158 does not attach to a Holyhead train and detach on the way back. The Holyhead services return from Birmingham Int to Aberystwyth/Pwllheli arriving back at Shrewsbury 3 hours later and which continue beyond Shrewsbury with 4 cars and which split at Machynnleth. A similar process applies in the opposite direction.

Well, put it this way.
A 158 is consumed all day with the strengthening of Holyhead services between Shrewsbury and International.
The actual 158 used cycles through the day as they also work to/from the Cambrian.

 

[PHILIPE]

The norm is 4 carriages from Cambrian to Birmingham International with 2 between Holyhead and Shrewsbury and 4 from Shrewsbury onwards. This is to concentrate 4 carriages on the busier sections, i.e. Cambrian (Shrewsbury to Machynlleth) and Shrewsbury to Birmingham.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The norm is 4 carriages from Cambrian to Birmingham International with 2 between Holyhead and Shrewsbury and 4 from Shrewsbury onwards. This is to concentrate 4 carriages on the busier sections, i.e. Cambrian (Shrewsbury to Machynlleth) and Shrewsbury to Birmingham.

Many people in Aberystwyth would disagree that it doesn't get busy till Machynlleth! its what can be done given the lack of stock. The 0930 off Aber has been 4 car this summer and six car from Mach.

London Midland have three diagrams between Salop and New St, usually with a 2 car unit taken into the carriage sidings at Salop in the off peak and a fourth unit runs an additional semi fast peak services into New St in the AM and out in the PM. If these services were integrated with the Cambrian there would be potentially 2 peak units from the West Midlands tht could be used on Saturdays on the Cambrian.

 

[PHILIPE]

A 153 strengthens one of the 170s. It seems such a waste when you see spare 170s stabled in Abbey Foregate Sidings on a Saturday due to the peak time services not running.

 

[Llanigraham]

I'm fully aware that Voyagers aren't ERTMS fitted, but this is surely something that could be overcome, or is ERTMS only installable in 158s and 37s!!??

At the moment, yes.

 

[krus_aragon]

I'm fully aware that Voyagers aren't ERTMS fitted, but this is surely something that could be overcome, or is ERTMS only installable in 158s and 37s!!??

Oh, it could certainly be overcome; the only issue is money.

All the planning, testing, and evaluation of fitting the ERTMS/ETCS system to the Class 158 and Class 37 was paid for by Network Rail, as they were trialling the implementation of ERTMS on the Cambrian. Now that that's done, you could buy ETCS equipment off the shelf and install it in a 158 by following the book.

But if you want to do the same for a Voyager, you'll have to design an interface with the Voyager's (very different) control systems and software, test it, and get it approved. And then, as The Planner suggested, you're either going to make a small micro-fleet of Voyagers that have to be available for the Cambrian run, or you'll have to pay to get the conversion done to all of the fleet.

It sure is something that can be overcome, as long as you have a large enough chequebook. I'm afraid most people will say it's too high a price tag for what you'll achieve. Perhaps getting a stock Voyager as far as Shrewsbury is a more winnable battle.

 

[tbtc]

I really don't think asking for a Voyager to Euston in the morning that would also serve Shrewsbury is that ambitious.

If this was running instead of a four coach 158 (and, given the scarcity of paths through Wolverhampton/ New Street, that would probably be the case) then it'd mean a decrease in capacity (and no scope for a Pwllheli portion either)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Oh, it could certainly be overcome; the only issue is money.

All the planning, testing, and evaluation of fitting the ERTMS/ETCS system to the Class 158 and Class 37 was paid for by Network Rail, as they were trialling the implementation of ERTMS on the Cambrian. Now that that's done, you could buy ETCS equipment off the shelf and install it in a 158 by following the book.

But if you want to do the same for a Voyager, you'll have to design an interface with the Voyager's (very different) control systems and software, test it, and get it approved. And then, as The Planner suggested, you're either going to make a small micro-fleet of Voyagers that have to be available for the Cambrian run, or you'll have to pay to get the conversion done to all of the fleet.

It sure is something that can be overcome, as long as you have a large enough chequebook. I'm afraid most people will say it's too high a price tag for what you'll achieve. Perhaps getting a stock Voyager as far as Shrewsbury is a more winnable battle.

There is a plan emerging for ETCS fitment, but DMU routes come a long way down the priority.
First for conversion will be trains working out of Paddington and King's Cross from 2019.
That means IEP and whatever EMUs are in use on those lines.
I suppose 180s might also get converted as a by-product of this (unless they are replaced in the meantime).
Class 175s will probably need the same upgrade as the 180s.

Trains working out of Euston are actually low on the list because the fast trains (390, 221) already have TASS fitted, which is a subset of ETCS.
It then depends on resignalling, and as far as I have seen Cardiff ROC is not due for early conversion.

If the North Wales/Marches resignalling in 2015 included ETCS it would trigger the conversion of all the ATW units, but I don't think this is likely.

 

[jones_bangor]

If this was running instead of a four coach 158 (and, given the scarcity of paths through Wolverhampton/ New Street, that would probably be the case) then it'd mean a decrease in capacity (and no scope for a Pwllheli portion either)

My suggestion was that the hypothetical Voyager would slot in between the existing services, and add 4/5 coaches worth of capacity.

 

[The Planner]

Very quick fag packet work suggests that in the up direction at least the new service would need to be at Wolves around xx:42 after the local and XC Man Picc to Bomo to get a slot towards New St. Assuming about a 35 minute run for a Voyager based on Wellington and Telford, that would be a xx:07 departure from Shrewsbury, so you would have xx:37, xx:47 and a xx:07. It actually fits in that direction with the current EBW that departs Wolves at xx:45 which becomes the Pendos from Scotland.

 

[Gwenllian2001]

Etcs does put Cambrian in rolling stock straight jacket.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


There was a degree of naivety about creating a Welsh franchise with some thinking it would just be somehow magically be better because it was not the old step up, I think that most but not all of that attitude has gone now. 14 years of devolution has shown there isn't a magic wand based on what the geographical location of the decision makers is.

Why are you blaming devolution for the W & B Franchise? It was not designed in Wales. It was imposed on wales by Westminster. Nobody in Wales had anything to do with it.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Why are you blaming devolution for the W & B Franchise? It was not designed in Wales. It was imposed on wales by Westminster. Nobody in Wales had anything to do with it.

There were those that clamoured for it naively believing it was the magic panacea to all ills without any real understanding of how the franchise process would lock in mistakes for years to come.

 

[Gwenllian2001]

There were those that clamoured for it naively believing it was the magic panacea to all ills without any real understanding of how the franchise process would lock in mistakes for years to come.

I don't think that anyone in Wales 'clamoured' for the sort of pig's ear that we were given. Do you really believe that people in Wales would have chosen a set up based on 'no growth'? In any case, we had no say in the matter, it was designed in London.

 

[kieron]

It sure is something that can be overcome, as long as you have a large enough chequebook. I'm afraid most people will say it's too high a price tag for what you'll achieve. Perhaps getting a stock Voyager as far as Shrewsbury is a more winnable battle.

So would using one of the 37s to drag something to Shrewsbury or Wolverhampton be more feasible?

 

[Llanigraham]

So would using one of the 37s to drag something to Shrewsbury or Wolverhampton be more feasible?

No, because loco hauled trains on the Cambrian are subject to several severe speed restrictions.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I don't think that anyone in Wales 'clamoured' for the sort of pig's ear that we were given. Do you really believe that people in Wales would have chosen a set up based on 'no growth'? In any case, we had no say in the matter, it was designed in London.

I would guess that WAG had something to do with creation of a 'Wales' franchise, but 'no growth' probably came from London. I'm not sure a Wales & Borders franchise with improvements included would have been a bad idea, though it might have been better if it contained Wessex also, ie. Wales&West.

Didn't somebody say on another topic that ATW's orriginal bid for Wales&Borders, before 'no growth' was decided on, included a Bangor-Caernarfon line? I wonder how many improvements like that were lost due to the desision to change it to a no-growth franchise. If we had ATW reopening lines would there still be the same complaints about Wales & Borders?

Despite the 'Wales' franchise, we still have through trains from Cambrian to Birmingham and Llandudno to Manchester. The main problems I see are lack of through trains from west of Cardiff to Bristol/Portsmouth and very few to Manchester from west of Llandudno Junction and the overprovision of through Holyhead-Cardiff workings.

 

[anthony263]

If the WG do decide to pay for the wires to be extended beyond Swansea to West Wales then I cant see there be much issue with the Bristol - Swansea semi-fst services being run through to west wales.

 

[merlodlliw]

Why are you blaming devolution for the W & B Franchise? It was not designed in Wales. It was imposed on wales by Westminster. Nobody in Wales had anything to do with it.

Several Welsh MPs let it be known they wanted one TOC to serve all Wales,the Wales & Borders franchise was a dogs dinner designed by civil servants with no idea of Railways or business,no one I have spoken to up here ever wanted rid of First North Western or Central. But Cardiff did have some backdoor input.
The WG Minister IWJ grasped W&B,when he should have demanded change on the take over from Westminster in my opinion.
It was amateurs dealing with a PLC.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Certain people still thought they'd got a "Swiss style railway" with the franchise agreement. As the old saying goes be careful of what you wish for.

 

[jones_bangor]

The WG Minister IWJ grasped W&B,when he should have demanded change on the take over from Westminster in my opinion.
It was amateurs dealing with a PLC.

Hang on here, let's put some facts forward in the face of your soundbites and wild assertions:

To quote Wikipedia "On 1 August 2003 the Strategic Rail Authority awarded Arriva the new franchise. The new franchise was for fifteen years, with performance reviews every five years; Arriva Trains Wales took over the services operated by Wales & Borders on 7 December 2003. The next five-yearly review period concludes on 31 March 2013"

Note the date - August 2003.

Plaid Cymru and IWJ didn't "come to power" until the One Wales agreement.

Again quoting WIkipedia :
"One Wales (Welsh: Cymru'n Un, pronounced [ˈkəmrɨn ˈɨn]) was the coalition agreement for the National Assembly for Wales between Labour and Plaid Cymru agreed to by Rhodri Morgan, First Minister of Wales and leader of Welsh Labour, and Ieuan Wyn Jones, leader of Plaid Cymru, on 27 June 2007."

It's no good blaming him - at least he did try to improve the pup that was sold to Wales!

 

[Gwenllian2001]

Hang on here, let's put some facts forward in the face of your soundbites and wild assertions:

To quote Wikipedia "On 1 August 2003 the Strategic Rail Authority awarded Arriva the new franchise. The new franchise was for fifteen years, with performance reviews every five years; Arriva Trains Wales took over the services operated by Wales & Borders on 7 December 2003. The next five-yearly review period concludes on 31 March 2013"

Note the date - August 2003.

Plaid Cymru and IWJ didn't "come to power" until the One Wales agreement.

Again quoting WIkipedia :
"One Wales (Welsh: Cymru'n Un, pronounced [ˈkəmrɨn ˈɨn]) was the coalition agreement for the National Assembly for Wales between Labour and Plaid Cymru agreed to by Rhodri Morgan, First Minister of Wales and leader of Welsh Labour, and Ieuan Wyn Jones, leader of Plaid Cymru, on 27 June 2007."

It's no good blaming him - at least he did try to improve the pup that was sold to Wales!

Well said. I, for one, am fed up with the constant sniping directed at IWJ. As a minister, he did his best with what he had to work with. He was also 'rail minded' which is more than can be said about those who have followed.

The problems associated with the W&B franchise lie with the civil servants in London who designed it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The problems associated with the W&B franchise lie with the civil servants in London who designed it.

Why do you think W&B (which is not an all-Welsh franchise as you know) deserved a better franchise settlement than, say, Northern or FGW's ex-Wessex services)?
The whole ethos in 2003 was reduction of subsidy, so they went for the cheapest option of "no growth" on several franchises, not just W&B.
The Treasury would not have approved a more generous settlement.
The SRA was under the cosh for franchises going sour.

Another element was certainly devolution-related, otherwise why give it to Cardiff to manage?
Since then we have had the NR separation of a Wales route, even though some of it is in England.

I for one am fed up of Welsh politicians simply blaming all the franchise ills on Westminster, when they contribute next to nothing to rail funding.
They have to grapple with the problem of a very high subsidy for the current services, and need to develop plans for a sustainable franchise going forward.
Demanding more services/new rolling stock/reopenings for an ever-higher subsidy is not going to work.

 

[kieron]

No, because loco hauled trains on the Cambrian are subject to several severe speed restrictions.

Sorry, I should have thought. Looking at the SA, the main problem seems to lie between Borth and Dovey Junction where there are 4 bridges with 15mph limits for any train other than a 15x.

 

[The Planner]

There are also issues with timetabling loco hauled as the junction margins increase due to the braking curve of a 97 and the way ERTMS reacts to that.

 

[PHILIPE]

The 37s would not always be available as they have there own work to do, i.e. Engineering commitments. Not every day by any means, but you would have to have something permanent if you were going to get involved with Timetabled trains.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Why do you think W&B (which is not an all-Welsh franchise as you know) deserved a better franchise settlement than, say, Northern or FGW's ex-Wessex services)?
The whole ethos in 2003 was reduction of subsidy, so they went for the cheapest option of "no growth" on several franchises, not just W&B.
The Treasury would not have approved a more generous settlement.
The SRA was under the cosh for franchises going sour.

Another element was certainly devolution-related, otherwise why give it to Cardiff to manage?
Since then we have had the NR separation of a Wales route, even though some of it is in England.

I for one am fed up of Welsh politicians simply blaming all the franchise ills on Westminster, when they contribute next to nothing to rail funding.
They have to grapple with the problem of a very high subsidy for the current services, and need to develop plans for a sustainable franchise going forward.
Demanding more services/new rolling stock/reopenings for an ever-higher subsidy is not going to work.

It's not too hard to find references to WAG and the Welsh Affairs select committee claiming credit for the creation of the franchise. As both body's were Labour controlled or dominated back in the early 00's then the concept of an all Wales franchise would seem to have emanated from the Labour Party in Wales in the main.

Would we have had Hatfield, collapse of Railtrack, the SRA the ever increasing cost crisis if Labour had put a halt to privitisation in 97? The current franchise agreement is a result of those factors, whilst I can see there was need for steady as she goes, the mistakes were handing out these franchises for such lengths and implemting a poorly thought out re mapping at a time of uncertainty and without the resource to smooth everything over to make the new franchise a success from day one.

Without doubt the ex Central Trains routes would have been better off staying as part of Central Trains, CT lasted till 2007 and the SRA's no growth franchises were over by then.

 

[Gwenllian2001]

Why do you think W&B (which is not an all-Welsh franchise as you know) deserved a better franchise settlement than, say, Northern or FGW's ex-Wessex services)?

I do not think anything of the kind and neither have I written anything that mentions other franchises.

I have no doubt that that there are plenty of people who fell hard done by in the areas served by the franchises that you mention, including English politicians but that does not come under the heading of this thread.

In my opinion, and it is my opinion not that of some unidentifiable Welsh politician, the whole business of franchising is needlessly expensive and a smokescreen to pretend that the railways are in private hands. They may not be on the Treasury's books anymore but they certainly cost a lot more than when they were.

 

[PHILIPE]

The process is certainly more costly with lawyers and Consultants involved and they don't come cheap. However, a Government obsessed with privatisation don't want to know this.

 

[merlodlliw]

Well said. I, for one, am fed up with the constant sniping directed at IWJ. As a minister, he did his best with what he had to work with. He was also 'rail minded' which is more than can be said about those who have followed.

The problems associated with the W&B franchise lie with the civil servants in London who designed it.

With all respect if he was rail minded,why spend taxpayer £millions on what was called Iwanair an air route between Anglesey & Cardiff, now a tourist attraction,that was invented in Wales.Even Plaid at its Annual Conference voted against its Leader IWJ over this birdbrained idea.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Hang on here, let's put some facts forward in the face of your soundbites and wild assertions:

To quote Wikipedia "On 1 August 2003 the Strategic Rail Authority awarded Arriva the new franchise. The new franchise was for fifteen years, with performance reviews every five years; Arriva Trains Wales took over the services operated by Wales & Borders on 7 December 2003. The next five-yearly review period concludes on 31 March 2013"

Note the date - August 2003.

Plaid Cymru and IWJ didn't "come to power" until the One Wales agreement.

Again quoting WIkipedia :
"One Wales (Welsh: Cymru'n Un, pronounced [ˈkəmrɨn ˈɨn]) was the coalition agreement for the National Assembly for Wales between Labour and Plaid Cymru agreed to by Rhodri Morgan, First Minister of Wales and leader of Welsh Labour, and Ieuan Wyn Jones, leader of Plaid Cymru, on 27 June 2007."

It's no good blaming him - at least he did try to improve the pup that was sold to Wales!

I am under the impression it was under IWJ stewardship that W & B was devolved to Cardiff, he was sold a pup,I agree,but he accepted the pup