Cambrian hourly service consultation

[brianthegiant]

http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/...views-on-shropshire-rail-link-to-welsh-coast/

"Public consultation will begin next month to look at the need for improved train services from Shropshire to Aberystwyth and the Mid Wales coast."

A cynic might ask why is the Welsh Government only now consulting on this, after numerous previous studies & the resignalling & dynamic loop work has been completed...
I suppose they want to gauge how many additional services are needed and when. Just very frustrating they didn't have the foresight to do this before.
As ever the South Wales centric Government takes for ever to do anything north of Merthyr Tydfil.

 

[anthony263]

Why the hell would they do another consultation when previous surveys etc have shown the demand is there. Take a few hours and see how busy the current 2 hourly service is.

My opiniong the WG is just trying to make it out that it is doing something. When more dmu's become available from 2015/2016 I do hope the WG take the opportunity to get hold of some for teh cambrians especially if the FGW class 158's are reformed back into 2 carriage rakes to allow some of the Portsmouth Hbr services to operate a 4 carriages

 

[The Planner]

I suspect they still can't decide what to do with them once they get to Shrewsbury, they couldn't before.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Why the hell would they do another consultation when previous surveys etc have shown the demand is there. Take a few hours and see how busy the current 2 hourly service is.

My opiniong the WG is just trying to make it out that it is doing something. When more dmu's become available from 2015/2016 I do hope the WG take the opportunity to get hold of some for teh cambrians especially if the FGW class 158's are reformed back into 2 carriage rakes to allow some of the Portsmouth Hbr services to operate a 4 carriages

It's a no brainier to anyone who knows the cambrian and Mid Wales, there's a lot of untapped demand because of lengthy inconvenient gaps, poor connections, lack of commuter timed services and overcrowding. Passenger Focus has consistently recorded scores in the low 40's for satisfaction with frequency of services amongst existing Cambrian users in its NPS for years.

The East Suffolk, Falmouth and Newquay line in Cornwall have recorded 60 percent uplifts in usage in the first two years since services were doubled. The West Highland and Trans Wilts service frequency increases are agreed in principle so its not a leap in the dark we know what happens elsewhere!

Still it's a chance to provide even more evidence. Everyone at the Central Trains announcement in Dec 99 agreed in principle that more services were needed.

 

[The Informer]

"dynamic loop work has been completed..."

Ermm, I don't know what to say on that one.

 

[Gareth Marston]

"dynamic loop work has been completed..."

Ermm, I don't know what to say on that one.

go on PM me - I have several versions

 

[eps200]

I suspect they still can't decide what to do with them once they get to Shrewsbury, they couldn't before.

It's an odd service waits for a while then onto brum,

Crewe or Wrexham central seem sane if they have to run onward.

 

[Eagle]

The extra services on the Cambrian will be 1tp2h. Let's see. What other services are there that terminate at Shrewsbury, preferably from the north, at a frequency of 1tp2h, that we could join it up with?

Aha

And yes I know it's a hell of a lot more complicated than just saying they can run onto the Crewe stoppers. Possibly as difficult as a large recast of many of ATW's long-distance routes. :P

 

[Rich McLean]

Wouldn't it make sense, if an extra 158 (or two) run with a holyhead train from brum, then instead of waiting for the inbound portion from Holyhead when it detaches, would then continue to Aberystwyth. The unit that went to Aberytwyth 2 hours ago would of arrived back into Shrewsbury to connect to the Holyhead - Internation service.

Would only need one extra 158?

 

[brianthegiant]

"dynamic loop work has been completed..."

Ermm, I don't know what to say on that one.

hmm, I heard there is a 'bit' of remedial work to do,but glazed over the detail a bit. Was it that NR identified the need for an additional passing loop between Shrewsbury & Welshpool that wasn't in the original ERTMS+trackworks spec.

Any progress on that issue folks?

 

[tbtc]

As ever the South Wales centric Government takes for ever to do anything north of Merthyr Tydfil

Given the proportion of Welsh population living "north of Merthyr", they seem to be doing okay in terms of investment/ upgrades in recent years.

The extra loops on the Cambrian, the proposed redoubling on the Wrexham - Chester line, the modern 175s on many of the longer distance services, no more Pacers (compared to the FNW days)...

...whilst (despite the greater population in the south) the Valley services are still run by the same 1980s DMUs, not a great deal of infrastructure spending (apart from at Gowerton, which is mainly for the benefit of those in the rural south west corner). Electrification is on its way, of course, but some time away.

The extra services on the Cambrian will be 1tp2h. Let's see. What other services are there that terminate at Shrewsbury, preferably from the north, at a frequency of 1tp2h, that we could join it up with?

Aha

And yes I know it's a hell of a lot more complicated than just saying they can run onto the Crewe stoppers. Possibly as difficult as a large recast of many of ATW's long-distance routes. :P

...but that would mean accepting that there's demand for long distance Welsh journeys that don't involve Cardiff.

 

[Llanigraham]

As ever the South Wales centric Government takes for ever to do anything north of Merthyr Tydfil.

A "gog" with a chip on his shoulder?

 

[Gareth Marston]

hmm, I heard there is a 'bit' of remedial work to do,but glazed over the detail a bit. Was it that NR identified the need for an additional passing loop between Shrewsbury & Welshpool that wasn't in the original ERTMS+trackworks spec.

Any progress on that issue folks?

There was a red herring about Westbury loop if you believe the NR always cock it up story's that come from some quarters but if you think about it trains crossing at Westbury and then Newtown? But where then?
Forden level crossing being abolished and he 40 mph speed restriction going is the only definite bit of work I'm aware of.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Wouldn't it make sense, if an extra 158 (or two) run with a holyhead train from brum, then instead of waiting for the inbound portion from Holyhead when it detaches, would then continue to Aberystwyth. The unit that went to Aberytwyth 2 hours ago would of arrived back into Shrewsbury to connect to the Holyhead - Internation service.

Would only need one extra 158?

One option the others of course integrating it with the Crewe to salop local. You,ll need 2 units to go hourly all the way to Aber but only one to Newtown. Might not need so many 4 cars on Cambrian but that creates problems east of salop.

 

[The Planner]

It doesn't need another loop. At the risk of sounding like a broken record there is enough there to run an hourly but the single line occupancy is too high and is a risk. Speed it up a bit more and that occupancy drops and makes it more workable. A loop at Caersws would have been useful for redundancy if it went tits up on the day but it isn't necessary.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Given the proportion of Welsh population living "north of Merthyr", they seem to be doing okay in terms of investment/ upgrades in recent years.

The extra loops on the Cambrian, the proposed redoubling on the Wrexham - Chester line, the modern 175s on many of the longer distance services, no more Pacers (compared to the FNW days)...

...whilst (despite the greater population in the south) the Valley services are still run by the same 1980s DMUs, not a great deal of infrastructure spending (apart from at Gowerton, which is mainly for the benefit of those in the rural south west corner). Electrification is on its way, of course, but some time away.

As discussed before N Wales coast was still on 1st generation dmu,s and loco hauled mk 1's before the 175's so were higher up the desperately needed replacement lists than S Wales in the late 90's.

What use are the cambrian loops without anything to run on them?

 

[Llanigraham]

It doesn't need another loop. At the risk of sounding like a broken record there is enough there to run an hourly but the single line occupancy is too high and is a risk. Speed it up a bit more and that occupancy drops and makes it more workable. A loop at Caersws would have been useful for redundancy if it went tits up on the day but it isn't necessary.

Which is exactly what I've been told by "someone in the know"!:roll:

 

[Old Hill Bank]

From my line we do have a connection at Smethwick Galton Bridge into a Cambrian service. I have looked into the idea of a day out to the Cambrian Coast using this service but I and I suspect like many others am put off by the journey time and the inflexability the two hour gaps between trains back home. If section times could be improved and an hourly service were to be implemented it would become a much more attractive proposition. At Galton Bridge we currently have alternate hour ATW services to Aber and Holyhead. To be honest if I wanted to go to Holyhead from the West Midlands going via Crewe has to be a better option. Why not run hourly Birmingham to the Cambrian with seperate services covering the Salop-Chester-Holyhead requirement. This Cambrian 1tph project has been going on for far to long now, there is a clear economic case based on growth and latent demand. Is it not tome that WAG and NR sorted this one out.

 

[The Planner]

ATW are the ones dragging their heels in this too, not just WG and NR.

 

[merlodlliw]

ATW are the ones dragging their heels in this too, not just WG and NR.

Correct Planner a ATW Senior Manager based in North Wales told us, "We will run the extra Cambrian services,if someone pays us to do it" this was at a Wrexham meeting last year.

 

[Markdvdman]

Correct Planner a ATW Senior Manager based in North Wales told us, "We will run the extra Cambrian services,if someone pays us to do it" this was at a Wrexham meeting last year.

Typical Arriva, will not pay for ANYTHING! All profits go to their German parent. It is very wrong for such franchises as this to run!

 

[anthony263]

Dont worry Seems there are some in the Welsh Government who are too fond of Arriva and their attitude. No wonder they are pushing for an in house operator to take over the franchise.

Sometimes I do wish we still had national Express which goes to show how bad ATW can be at times for me to want National Express. I wonder if First will be allowed to bid for the franchise since they operate a lot buses across South Wales.

 

[Eagle]

I wonder if First will be allowed to bid for the franchise since they operate a lot buses across South Wales.

Why would that be a concern? First operate a lot of buses in the Westcountry but that didn't stop them winning the Greater Western franchise in 2006.

 

[Gareth Marston]

From my line we do have a connection at Smethwick Galton Bridge into a Cambrian service. I have looked into the idea of a day out to the Cambrian Coast using this service but I and I suspect like many others am put off by the journey time and the inflexability the two hour gaps between trains back home. If section times could be improved and an hourly service were to be implemented it would become a much more attractive proposition. At Galton Bridge we currently have alternate hour ATW services to Aber and Holyhead. To be honest if I wanted to go to Holyhead from the West Midlands going via Crewe has to be a better option. Why not run hourly Birmingham to the Cambrian with seperate services covering the Salop-Chester-Holyhead requirement. This Cambrian 1tph project has been going on for far to long now, there is a clear economic case based on growth and latent demand. Is it not tome that WAG and NR sorted this one out.

If implemented the coast will still be 2 hour, though Aberystwyth will be better for day trips. I will be doing this journey in reverse to Kidderminster soon, been years since I' did it last.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Typical Arriva, will not pay for ANYTHING! All profits go to their German parent. It is very wrong for such franchises as this to run!

The hourly service proposal first came from CT whose managers were ex BR ones who managed the Cambrian and knew the market, the creation of the Wales and Borders franchise and people who didn't know the Cambrian combined with a corporate attitude that failed passengers all over the UK has been a big barrier.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

If implemented the coast will still be 2 hour, though Aberystwyth will be better for day trips. I will be doing this journey in reverse to Kidderminster soon, been years since I' did it last.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


The hourly service proposal first came from CT whose managers were ex BR ones who managed the Cambrian and knew the market, the creation of the Wales and Borders franchise and people who didn't know the Cambrian combined with a corporate attitude that failed passengers all over the UK has been a big barrier.

You will be most welcome in Kidderminster Gareth

 

[tbtc]

Not sure why people are bashing Arriva for wanting money to run extra services - the W&B franchise requires the biggest subsidy per passenger mile of any TOC in England and Wales (ScotRail is a bit of a special case because they've spent a lot of money on subsidised fares/ reopening routes/ dozens of new trains etc, so bound to need more subsidy) - is it any wonder that they don't think running extra services would be profitable without any subsidy?

Sad thing is that its going to be the same whoever runs the W&B TOC - a "state run" operation is still going to need money thrown at it - especially if it wants to expand.

I wonder if First will be allowed to bid for the franchise since they operate a lot buses across South Wales

I'd argue that Arriva run a lot more buses in Wales that "compete" with trains - i.e. longer distance.

The suburban services around Swansea that First run are little competition with rail as there's very little suburban rail network around Swansea (compared to other cities).

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Not sure why people are bashing Arriva for wanting money to run extra services - the W&B franchise requires the biggest subsidy per passenger mile of any TOC in England and Wales (ScotRail is a bit of a special case because they've spent a lot of money on subsidised fares/ reopening routes/ dozens of new trains etc, so bound to need more subsidy) - is it any wonder that they don't think running extra services would be profitable without any subsidy?

Sad thing is that its going to be the same whoever runs the W&B TOC - a "state run" operation is still going to need money thrown at it - especially if it wants to expand.


I'd argue that Arriva run a lot more buses in Wales that "compete" with trains - i.e. longer distance.

The suburban services around Swansea that First run are little competition with rail as there's very little suburban rail network around Swansea (compared to other cities).

A very rational comment - whichever way you put it , there are no "commercial" rail services in the ATW portofolio , and any "surplus" created in the UK goes (I suspect) to cover the large losses in other rail areas - whcih benefits the UK rail community generally.Remember that XC was a net subsidised operator when run by Virgin - now it is not (and losing money) - yet Arriva have met most of their commitments and so on.

It is not that ATW have just sat on their laurels and not changed things -and any reasonable business or individual would expect to be paid for extra work or commitments. My own views of course.

 

[Gareth Marston]

A very rational comment - whichever way you put it , there are no "commercial" rail services in the ATW portofolio , and any "surplus" created in the UK goes (I suspect) to cover the large losses in other rail areas - whcih benefits the UK rail community generally.Remember that XC was a net subsidised operator when run by Virgin - now it is not (and losing money) - yet Arriva have met most of their commitments and so on.

It is not that ATW have just sat on their laurels and not changed things -and any reasonable business or individual would expect to be paid for extra work or commitments. My own views of course.

There level of profits and attitude have played a big part in the not for profit franchise proposal, there profit is nearer 10 percent than the only 3 percent that ATOC pleads. It was c£20 million with £140 million in subsidy. Few see what added value they bring for this reward. You can argue they foul the nest for the other TOCs.

You can go on about today's subsidy figures to the cows come home but we all know the franchise system is chronically inefficient and costs a lot more than it should.

 

[tbtc]

There level of profits and attitude have played a big part in the not for profit franchise proposal, there profit is nearer 10 percent than the only 3 percent that ATOC pleads. It was c£20 million with £140 million in subsidy. Few see what added value they bring for this reward. You can argue they foul the nest for the other TOCs.

You can go on about today's subsidy figures to the cows come home but we all know the franchise system is chronically inefficient and costs a lot more than it should.

I'm not arguing, just pointing out that any operator of the W&B franchise would need extra subsidy for running extra services (regardless of their profit level).

I can't agree that a "state" operator would solve all of these problems.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I'm not arguing, just pointing out that any operator of the W&B franchise would need extra subsidy for running extra services (regardless of their profit level).

I can't agree that a "state" operator would solve all of these problems.

But you can buy a lot more for your subsidy if the system is more efficient, John Majors been quoted recently as saying he privatised BR as it was inefficient. BR needed c £6 of income per passenger journey at 2012 prices with double the passengers on a network the same size with 25 percent more trains £8 per passenger is needed now its gone the other way to what it should.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No wonder they are pushing for an in house operator to take over the franchise.

It won't happen under current legislation. It will have to be refranchised like Scotrail and the others.
ATW are only doing what they are contracted to do (I doubt any other operator would do any different).
DfT and WG do not want to change the current franchise because they know it will push up the subsidy further.
The ATW profits go some way to balance the losses at XC and Chiltern.
Some of us remember First North Western and as an operator Arriva is quite a bit better.