Cascading: What train will go where after electrification?

[LLivery]

The thing is with all this electrification at the moment is that we have patchy ideas of cascading. As I understand some but not all 86 319s are going Northern and it was suggested to the Thames Valley. While there seems to be a stupid plan to move the some of 315s to the Welsh Valleys. With the 319s replacing some Sprinters & Pacers will they be sent else where ie East Anglia, East Mids or South West or will they strengthen other Northern services?

But now that TSGN has said that it doesn't want the 365 Networkers on the Cambridge & Fen Line replacing them with 377s, but will keep some 365 for Peterborough & Peak services will they need all 40 sets? Wouldn't it make more sense to build more 377s or 387s for the Great Northern and cascade the 365s to the Thames Valley? There Diesel sister class already run the route.

All 61 315s are going to be available by 2019 but are 315s the fit for purpose? The Welsh would want new units, can they really be forced on the Welsh Assembly? Even if they where thats not all units taken up. With 75mph speed limits and their age Northerners defiantly don't want them.....so scrap?

Now the Midland Main Line. IC225 Electras? They'll be free soon, way too young to scrap, that would be a farce surly? I really like the Electras. Of course they should be overhauled/refurbed, and maybe install the tilt tech as designed. But if not them, what? The order will need to be in soon as electrification will start and be complete soonish. IEP would be not very quick to deliver with all the units for the GWML & ECML being built at the same time. Where will the good 222 Meridians go? The HSTs are said to stay on Great Western, IEPs on the East Coast, Bombardier screwed up the AC conversion idea, but that seems to be the best idea I can think of.

Looking at Hitiachi's planned units they look quite good, but I see them being more Northern units than in the South. Merseyrail seems like a good call as does the new AC Scottish routes plus as a replacement of PEPs up there. However they maybe great for the Great Northern suburbans.

East West Rail? Planned to be diesel at first...I'm guessing 165s/166s but then new units? 125mph running Network Rail is looking at... 165s/166s where are they do go? Replace Pacers? Replace Sprinters? I hear the South West wants them. Plus there are the 5 car 360s from Heathrow Connect. Go to East Anglia? There are only 5 of them, maybe convert to DC and run on SWT or SN suburbans.

And finally the TPE 185 Desiros. Where to? Great units, designed for hilly routes, Scottish Highland routes? Wales? I'd rather them do the Norwich - Liverpool (which of course should be kept running, and probably given to CrossCountry). The 158s should stay in the East Mids or East Anglia.

 

[gordonthemoron]

I thought East West Rail was going to be electric Oxford-MK/Bedford from the start with Aylesbury-MK/Bedford being diesel

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's all up to the TOCs to work it out, case by case, as they bid for their next franchise. There is no "master plan".
Wales can't even sort out putting the wires up in the Valleys never mind what trains it needs.
There's also a game of poker going on with the ROSCOs and their charges, and fleet upgrade plans.
Deciding (eg) to post all 86 319s to Northern would have Porterbrook laughing all the way to the bank.
The current East Coast and Scotrail bids will change the mix when the winner is announced and their fleet plans agreed (well not so much on East Coast, with the IEP plans decided for them).
Northern and TPE are next when the ITT comes out in December, although it will be late next year before the winner's plans will be contracted.
Then come GA and EMT during next year/2016.
FGW is up in the air because they might get a 5-year deal agreed soon, to get them through the electrification and IEP introduction period.
Behind all this is cost. TOCs want the fewest vehicles necessary to run the specified service, ideally of the same type, at the lowest cost.

 

[physics34]

Its all very up in the air at the moment. Nothing has really been decided.

Don't forget we dont know where the 387s are going yet, plus there will be surplus Great Northern 317s, 321s, those 365s that you mentioned........

plus the 313s that are being displaced by Great Northern, a number of 455s that Southern say they are gonna not require after 2018.

Youd imagine the 313s, 455s and 442s will go for scrap.

Then youd have all the 165s and 166s that FGW won't require........ and the the HSTs displaced by the IEP programme.

Oh and the 172s on LO which wont be required after electrification. There is a hell of alot of work to be done.

A very interesting next 4 years.

 

[jopsuk]

I was a bit confused by the GTR bit with reference to 365s- doesn't make much sense. The Peterborough off-peak will be staying (as far as I can tell) as 2tph, with both services being Thameslink. Surely it's crazy to have a micro-fleet of 365s retained to operate the peak hour extras? Why not a slightly larger fleet of 377s?

(obviously Peterborough has express services all day with East Coast)

 

[MidlandMainlie]

The thing is with all this electrification at the moment is that we have patchy ideas of cascading. As I understand some but not all 86 319s are going Northern and it was suggested to the Thames Valley. While there seems to be a stupid plan to move the some of 315s to the Welsh Valleys. With the 319s replacing some Sprinters & Pacers will they be sent elsewhere i.e. East Anglia, East Mids or South West or will they strengthen other Northern services?.

As I understand it most units freed up by 319's will be used for strengthening existing services in the North.

But now that TSGN has said that it doesn't want the 365 Networkers on the Cambridge & Fen Line replacing them with 377s, but will keep some 365 for Peterborough & Peak services will they need all 40 sets? Wouldn't it make more sense to build more 377s or 387s for the Great Northern and cascade the 365s to the Thames Valley? There Diesel sister class already run the route.

365's on Thames valley services makes sense as does 387's on Great Northern services with their 110mph capabilities on the ECML, but I don't think it's exactly clear what classes will be operating what services yet.

All 61 315s are going to be available by 2019 but are 315s the fit for purpose? The Welsh would want new units, can they really be forced on the Welsh Assembly? Even if they where that's not all units taken up. With 75mph speed limits and their age Northerners defiantly don't want them.....so scrap?

Unless the WA is willing to stump up the cash to fund new units then it will be 315's or nothing. Given the recent arguments about who should be funding the electrification on the Valleys Lines between the WA and DfT it doesn't look hopeful.

Now the Midland Main Line. IC225 Electras? They'll be free soon, way too young to scrap, that would be a farce surly? I really like the Electras. Of course they should be overhauled/refurbed, and maybe install the tilt tech as designed. But if not them, what? The order will need to be in soon as electrification will start and be complete soonish. IEP would be not very quick to deliver with all the units for the GWML & ECML being built at the same time. Where will the good 222 Meridians go? The HSTs are said to stay on Great Western, IEPs on the East Coast, Bombardier screwed up the AC conversion idea, but that seems to be the best idea I can think of.

Now this is a really interesting area. IC225's are one option that has been discussed for the MML, not sure tilt is economic to fit now given the age of the units and lack of tilt on the MML. However the mangers at East Midland Trains have stared they would prefer new build Electric Multiple Units. By time electrification reaches Nottingham and Derby in 2018 (I think?) the EMT franchise will be re-let but procurement for electric trains will have to start under the current franchise in order to have them available in time. The Hitachi factory being built at Newton Acyliffe I believe has capacity to open a second production line so a fleet of IEP's could be built for the MML alongside the GW and ECML orders. As for where the 222's end up no one has said anything concrete but there has been a lot of speculation on this forum about them ending up on Cross Country or replacing the remaining HST's on West of England services.

Looking at Hitachi's planned units they look quite good, but I see them being more Northern units than in the South. Merseyrail seems like a good call as does the new AC Scottish routes plus as a replacement of PEPs up there. However they maybe great for the Great Northern suburbans.

It will be interesting to observe how Hitachi's entry into the rolling stock markets affects Bombardier and Siemens. There are some good potential orders up for grabs like new EMU's for Transpennine franchise.

East West Rail? Planned to be diesel at first...I'm guessing 165s/166s but then new units? 125mph running Network Rail is looking at... 165s/166s where are they do go? Replace Pacers? Replace Sprinters? I hear the South West wants them. Plus there are the 5 car 360s from Heathrow Connect. Go to East Anglia? There are only 5 of them, maybe convert to DC and run on SWT or SN suburbans.

As I understand it reopening of East West Rail has been pushed back to 2019 but will be electric from Oxford to Bletchley with electrification from Bletchley to Bedford following sometime post 2020. What stock ends up running the services depends on who is running them, the successors to GW or London Midland franchises?

And finally the TPE 185 Desiros. Where to? Great units, designed for hilly routes, Scottish Highland routes? Wales? I'd rather them do the Norwich - Liverpool (which of course should be kept running, and probably given to Cross-country). The 158s should stay in the East Mids or East Anglia.

185's would be great for Scottish routes and an improvement over the 170's the Scotrail currently operate. It will be interesting to see the results of the Scotrail franchise due shortly. The recent consultation on the Northern and Transpennine franchises discussed the possibility of splitting the Liverpool - Norwich service at Nottingham. It would be sad to see this through service go but it would improve the business case for electrifying the Hope Valley line in Control Period 6 as the Liverpool - Nottingham Section will mostly be under the wires except for the Hope Valley section, while East of Nottingham the route is a low priority for electrification.

 

[LLivery]

Unless the WA is willing to stump up the cash to fund new units then it will be 315's or nothing. Given the recent arguments about who should be funding the electrification on the Valleys Lines between the WA and DfT it doesn't look hopeful.

Ah yes that argument was just pointless and what ever happened to Arriva investing in new stock?

Its all very up in the air at the moment. Nothing has really been decided.

Don't forget we dont know where the 387s are going yet, plus there will be surplus Great Northern 317s, 321s, those 365s that you mentioned........

plus the 313s that are being displaced by Great Northern, a number of 455s that Southern say they are gonna not require after 2018.

Youd imagine the 313s, 455s and 442s will go for scrap.

Then youd have all the 165s and 166s that FGW won't require........ and the the HSTs displaced by the IEP programme.

Oh and the 172s on LO which wont be required after electrification. There is a hell of alot of work to be done.

A very interesting next 4 years.

Agreed, and I completely forgot about those units. 172s to Chiltern or LM makes sense. 321s, 317s Anglia I'd assume. I always forget how old the 455s, I travel on them all the time and they have been looked after well, if the 315s had the same care, I'd probably like them more too.

The Hitachi factory being built at Newton Acyliffe I believe has capacity to open a second production line so a fleet of IEP's could be built for the MML alongside the GW and ECML orders.

That will be impressive to do.

With all this, the new franchises, Crossrail, Thameslink, Waverley, East West, New Eurostar destinations - the next six years will be really interesting.
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I was a bit confused by the GTR bit with reference to 365s- doesn't make much sense. The Peterborough off-peak will be staying (as far as I can tell) as 2tph, with both services being Thameslink. Surely it's crazy to have a micro-fleet of 365s retained to operate the peak hour extras? Why not a slightly larger fleet of 377s?

Exactly, it makes no sense to me either.

 

[jopsuk]

Is there any word on how many of each unit GTR will need?

 

[Manchester77]

The plan with the 365s is to cascade some of them and keep some for peak strengthening great northern peak services. I think the reason for retaining some 365s is because GTR plan to use dual voltage 377s on the services but they also need dual 377s for current southern services so if they opted for full great northern stock replacement they would need more dual voltage EMUs for southern services.

According to Tony Miles the DfT want 387s on TPE services however other than that no other progress has been made on that. Further 387s are being built for Gatwick Express services however they are separate from those built for Thameslink.

With the Thames Valley and Great Western wiring it's worth nothing that while main Thames Valley stoppers operated by GW and not Crossrail will probably need 110 mph capability; trains for the branches and local services in Bristol won't need this so many are predicting a fleet of 319s to operate these services.

The 165s and 166s are to be used in the South west hence the plan to clear the routes down there. I supposed some could go to Chiltern but it seems they are accounte for.

455s are still going strong, hence the retractioning program on SWT showing they have a long term future. The only sign of their withdrawel is in the GTR stuff they've put out it's been mentioned 455s use on TSGN will reduce from 2018.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

The 442s are almost certainly going to the scrapyard, with the cost of all the work they'd need to keep them going. Could 455s be used on Merseyside, even if it's just a coach or two used to boost the length of the existing trains

 

[Bevan Price]

The 442s are almost certainly going to the scrapyard, with the cost of all the work they'd need to keep them going. Could 455s be used on Merseyside, even if it's just a coach or two used to boost the length of the existing trains

I don't think that Merseyrail Electrics would want a small fleet of a non-standard class.

As for train lengths, almost all the platforms are designed to hold 6 coaches (2 x 3 cars) - so (2 x 4 car) unit formations would be impracticable. Hence increasing the existing 3 car trains to 4 cars would not be sensible. (You need an option for using up to 6 coach formations when their are major events in the Liverpool or Wirral area, like the recent Open Golf championship at Hoylake.)

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Would putting a pan on a 455 involve a major structural rebuild (a rewire would probably be needed in any case for AC)?

 

[edwin_m]

Would putting a pan on a 455 involve a major structural rebuild (a rewire would probably be needed in any case for AC)?

Yes. The roof would need rebuilding for the pan but probably more significantly the body would have to be strengthened to hold a transformer weighing several tonnes. I don't see any reason to do anything like this, as these units are well-suited for their third rail inner suburban duties and will be up for replacement in ten years or so. Any AC conversion of the DC network wouldn't reach the routes operated by 455s until well after that, if ever.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

As DMUs become freed up by electrification what about a couple for the Lymington branch (i doubt that conversion of that branch to AC would be financially viable), and some for SWT to take over the Weymouth-Bristol route?

 

[jopsuk]

455s are not being cascaded. They'll be more or less where they are (I note GTR do say "a reduction in their use by 2018) until they are life-expired. SWT I think envisage them being replaced by Crossrail 2 stock- most plans so far for that involve the lines they run on (roughly).

There's not really any DMUs being freed up, as it stands. Where possible electrification will allow the withdrawl of the shorter design life Pacer classes, whilst otherwise services will be strengthened. There may still be a shortage of DMUs.

When the wires are extended past Southampton to Bournemouth, Poole and Weymouth, I'd more or less guarantee that the Lymington branch will be included. As a shortish, simple, branch line it should be cheap enough to do as an add-on scheme.

 

[physics34]

455s are not being cascaded. They'll be more or less where they are (I note GTR do say "a reduction in their use by 2018) until they are life-expired. SWT I think envisage them being replaced by Crossrail 2 stock- most plans so far for that involve the lines they run on (roughly).

There's not really any DMUs being freed up, as it stands. Where possible electrification will allow the withdrawl of the shorter design life Pacer classes, whilst otherwise services will be strengthened. There may still be a shortage of DMUs.

When the wires are extended past Southampton to Bournemouth, Poole and Weymouth, I'd more or less guarantee that the Lymington branch will be included. As a shortish, simple, branch line it should be cheap enough to do as an add-on scheme.

we still need to find these mystery 14+ DMU coaches for the uckfield line from somewhere

 

[hwl]

we still need to find these mystery 14+ DMU coaches for the uckfield line from somewhere

Ex LO post Goblin Electrification

 

[physics34]

Ex LO post Goblin Electrification

possibly, but they wont be avaliable til a year after the expected Dec 2016 date for the uckfield train lengthening that was mentioned.

 

[hwl]

possibly, but they wont be avaliable til a year after the expected Dec 2016 date for the uckfield train lengthening that was mentioned.

The govia presentation suggested the start date is now as soon as rolling stock is available.

 

[physics34]

The govia presentation suggested the start date is now as soon as rolling stock is available.

looks likely to be LO stock then

 

[59CosG95]

Now the Midland Main Line. IC225 Electras? They'll be free soon, way too young to scrap, that would be a farce surly? I really like the Electras. Of course they should be overhauled/refurbed, and maybe install the tilt tech as designed. But if not them, what? The order will need to be in soon as electrification will start and be complete soonish. IEP would be not very quick to deliver with all the units for the GWML & ECML being built at the same time. Where will the good 222 Meridians go? The HSTs are said to stay on Great Western, IEPs on the East Coast, Bombardier screwed up the AC conversion idea, but that seems to be the best idea I can think of.

Maybe, a New New Measurement Train? Using a 91 at one end and a 43 at the other, with the same Mk3s or some reused Mk4s, an NMT that could run on OHLE where it was available, and on diesel where it wasn't, could be made.

 

[edwin_m]

One of the things the New Measurement Train measures is the position of the OLE. I'm not sure if that would still work if the OLE was shaking around having just been disturbed by a pantograph a little way ahead of the measuring equipment.

 

[AM9]

One of the things the New Measurement Train measures is the position of the OLE. I'm not sure if that would still work if the OLE was shaking around having just been disturbed by a pantograph a little way ahead of the measuring equipment.

Or behind?

 

[Domh245]

The pantograph being behind would also set up vibrations in the wire, skewing the reading. Realistically, whenever monitoring the OLE, you couldn't use it to collect power, which begs the uestion - why is their a pantograph car on the NMT, is it to measure tensions in the ole? But I think there should be some attempt to utilise the OLE where possible. What could be done I suppose is to have 2 NMTs, one with 91s which whizz up and down electrified lines doing all of the track measurements and inspections, whilst the other NMT, with the class 43s, which measure the OLE and non electrified lines.

 

[Chrisgr31]

The govia presentation suggested the start date is now as soon as rolling stock is available.

Which of course gives them a get out if there is never any stock available!

If memory serves me right the Dec 2016 date come from Network Rail who said they were looking try and lengthen the platforms by Dec 2016 as that appeared to be what the bidders for the franchise wanted.

I also seem to recall it has been suggested here that London Midland may have some spare Class 170s or 172s or maybe some that werent spare but were coming off to lease end and could then move south. Possibly aided by both franchises being owned by Govia

Anyway can we solve the Uckfield issue first please as those are the ones that affect me!

 

[petersi]

Does any one know what the DC unites to be cascaded will be used for

 

[Philip]

What about the 175s? Currently secure in Wales is this likely to remain the same long term? The Marches line appears to be a long way down the line for any electrification project but the lack of first class on a (sort of) intercity route stands out a bit. Is loco-hauled coaching stock a potential replacement for the 175s on the Marches? I have mentioned 185s for South Wales to Manchester services but it was pointed out that the restricted speed limit would increase journey times.

 

[Manchester77]

What about the 175s? Currently secure in Wales is this likely to remain the same long term? The Marches line appears to be a long way down the line for any electrification project but the lack of first class on a (sort of) intercity route stands out a bit. Is loco-hauled coaching stock a potential replacement for the 175s on the Marches? I have mentioned 185s for South Wales to Manchester services but it was pointed out that the restricted speed limit would increase journey times.

175s are fine in Wales. The LHCS is only for extra capacity and to allow the 158 on the North Wales - Manchester service to be cascaded for the hourly Cambrian line timetable. I sincerely doubt 185s would have enough capacity to replace 175s off marches services, even the 2 car 175s probably have more seats than a 185.

The only thought I have had about the 175s is if it'd be possible to take a carriage out of a 180 and insert it into a two car 175 to increase the number of 3 car 175s.

 

[edwin_m]

which begs the uestion - why is their a pantograph car on the NMT, is it to measure tensions in the ole?

I think the pantograph can be used to detect "hard spots" where the OLE is its normal position with no pantograph present but doesn't deform evenly as the pan passes along it. Obviously this can't be measured on the same run as static position.

 

[Qwerty133]

Why do people keep suggesting 91+Mk4 for the MML, which are slower and older than the current meridians, people for some weird reason, wouldn't be happy with years of disruption, so the government can replace the stock on the ECML, without writing off the value of the 91s / Mk4 and make their service slower...