To add, IEP/SET deliveries are set to continue into 2019 by which time MML electrification should be complete thus Hitachi couldn't supply IEP/SET units for the interim period whilst MML is being wired
I was more thinking about the fact that there would still be services beyond the MML which are not included in electrification yet.
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Once again you are posting on a railway line of which you clearly have very little knowledge. For many peak time services on the MML six coaches is simply not enough. The fact is HS2 is likely to have very little affect on the MML which is something that NR / DfT have already stated. By using 225's on the MML you are simply staving off the inevitable purchase of new trains. EMU's will always be quicker than 225's and five car EMU's will of course be far more flexible.
When it comes to capacity there's 6 coaches and 6 coaches. In that 6 mark 4's have potentially more capacity than a 6 coach 222.
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There will be loads of spare IEP/SET from ECML once HS2 starts running classic compatables on the York-Edinburgh services, leaving a small requirement for some Doncaster-London express services, but mostly the ECML south of Peterborough will be commuter style rolling stock
I'm not so sure, as there will still be about the year 2000's number of passengers looking to use the ECML and WCML, OK they are not going to be going end to end, but there will still be plenty of people wishing to travel fairly fast between key points not served by HS2.
Also there are only so many paths on HS2, so it may only be an hourly service for some CC services. Meaning that there will be demand to get to HS2 stations or even either side of HS2 stations.
Yes that is unlikely to need all the IEP's, but there is likely to be a significant prepotion of them in use.
Then of course an bi-modal IEP's could find a use on the outer edges of the IC network were electrification could not have reached. (Scotland, Cornwall, etc.) and/or on lines where OHLE is difficult and has been put in the too dificult to do yet pile (i.e. southern end of Chiltern).
I see where you are going, but there's lots of life in the 222's yet, common sense would suggest that replacements for the 222 fleet are procured towards 2030 (end of life) rather than 2020 when there's still a decade of life in the 222's, by which time we will have a better idea of the true passenger impact of HS2 and what exactly needs to replace the 22x fleets, specifically with respect to XC which will effectively become the second largest franchise after GWML because ECML/WCML will cease to offer the same degree of express service as today due to direct replacement of most service needs by HS2 via captive and classic compatible routes.
However it is likely that XC would require significant numbers of trains to replace their 22x's as they become life expired at that point. Also anyone else who has taken on any of the 22x's would also be looking for new stock at that time.
As I have said before I could see the 22x's being reformed to provide longers sets once they start to be less heaverly used so as to keep them being of use (i.e. leasing company would find it better to lease a 6 coach 220 and store/scrap 2 end coaches than not lease 2 x 4 coach 220's).
I could even see them being used on services like Exeter to Waterloo (depending on electrification) as a 9 coach set (or a pair of 5 coach sets) would have a similar number of seats as a 10 coach 158/159 train.
Alternitively the IEP's could find a use on HS3 (or at the very least TPE), as they would be able to benefit from any linespeed improvements above 125mph.
Failing all of that there is the possibility that the GWML services could be looking to lengthen their trains beyond 9 coaches, which would could reduce the number of 9 coach sets by 5 (assuming a minimum lenght of 5 coaches on the shortened sets) and use up 20 of the "spare" coaches.
I don't think that we need to worry about work for about 900 coaches of intercity class trains (some of which are able to run away from the wires) which as yet haven't been delivered and most of which (easily 500; as 369 will still be in use on the core GWML services and there will still be a need for the Scotish Highland services) will still be in day to day use on the lines for which they were ordered. Before any are used on any other suitable routes.
