Cascading: What train will go where after electrification?

[Andy-mc]

MML will likely acquire 91's as there will be no point of running meridians on an electrified line and they want to rid of the HST's, East Coast will receive the new trains so the 91's will have to go somewhere
I've heard they are already looking at extending the platforms at some stations including Loughborough which was only recently done which to me would suggest creating capability for 9 full length 225 sets

 

[Class83]

MML will likely acquire 91's as there will be no point of running meridians on an electrified line and they want to rid of the HST's, East Coast will receive the new trains so the 91's will have to go somewhere
I've heard they are already looking at extending the platforms at some stations including Loughborough which was only recently done which to me would suggest creating capability for 9 full length 225 sets

I'd always assumed that the Mark 4s would go to Anglia as they'll be needing something to replace the Mark 3s which will be ~40 years old by the time MML electrification happens. MML will surely be either some kind of IEP variant or (if tilt can be done) some kind of Pendolino variant.

 

[corfield]

I too doubt the 225s will go to the MML, the obvious penchant for IEP orders associated with mainlines and newly electrified (GW) very strongly suggests a follow on order.

91s probably to scrap, Mk4s into the redundant coaching pool.

Replacing newish fast meridians with them seems daft. IEP in mixture of lengths seems blindingly obvious.


As for cascades, with EGIP occurring, what new EMUs (and when ?) will SR need and what DMUs does that free ?

My cascade, based largely on OCD is:
- New SR EMUs release 170/3s to Chiltern.
- Chiltern 172s to LM, with electrified Chase (which all 350 so 323s do XCity and Bromsgrove), releases some 170 /5/6 to XC which gives it's 170/3s to Chiltern.
- Ex GOBLIN 172s to LM / Ukfield (latter as 171s).

I'd like to see the 319s stay in the South where their DV capability can support DC to AC switchover. Not sure how to "make that happen".

Class 365s to North instead ? Or could South Eastern use them as 465s ?

 

[Manchester77]

I'd always assumed that the Mark 4s would go to Anglia as they'll be needing something to replace the Mark 3s which will be ~40 years old by the time MML electrification happens. MML will surely be either some kind of IEP variant or (if tilt can be done) some kind of Pendolino variant.

Unlikely since HS2 will replace much of the MML intercity services and therefore new stock wouldn't have much of a long life. However if you use mark IVs with new locos as was one of the suggestions from eversholt you could use them up to 2032 when the mark IVs could be scrapped and the locos moved over the freight workings.

 

[The Ham]

Why do people keep suggesting 91+Mk4 for the MML, which are slower and older than the current meridians, people for some weird reason, wouldn't be happy with years of disruption, so the government can replace the stock on the ECML, without writing off the value of the 91s / Mk4 and make their service slower...

They are only slower when they are running as full length sets, shorten them and they will speed up.
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Unlikely since HS2 will replace much of the MML intercity services and therefore new stock wouldn't have much of a long life. However if you use mark IVs with new locos as was one of the suggestions from eversholt you could use them up to 2032 when the mark IVs could be scrapped and the locos moved over the freight workings.

However if the IEP's are bi-modal sets (so can be brought in before the line is fully wired up and can run off the wires as needed) of both 5 and 9 coach lengths, then chances are by the time less of them are needed (as the MML will not close the day that HS2 opens, in fact passenger number are likley to fall to those seen in or around the year 2000) any spare sets could be used to strengthen other IEP services or to replace 22x's elsewhere on the network.

(which is a long winded way of saying when HS2 opens there is likely to still be a need for a significant number of the trains that would be replacing the 222's).

 

[Haydn1971]

I'm totally with you Manchester77 on this - MML will get the 225 fleet to start with, it's a no brainer and costs nothing, bar some clearance checks - I can also see the 91's being replaced at some point after moving to MML - the acceleration issues people keep talking about are going to be negated by the huge increase in seating capacity that a full 225 rake can bring to MML destinations.

People keep talking of more IEP/SET orders, but I don't see that happening other than exercising extensions for ECML & GWML - the IEP/SET is a product created from a PFI to satisfy a specification specific for the PFI - follow on orders of 125mph express trains for the Hitachi factory will come I'm sure, but based on a new generation of Hitachi's rolling stock, not IEP/SET

The questions are now, will a 11 vehicle long 225 set fit at all MML stations and exactly what will happen to the Class 222's - I suspect a bump to XC, there's an option that they could go to Virgin then bump their Voyagers to XC to give XC a compatible fleet, but that means Virgin can't use a 222 to pull a 390, which isn't that big a problem in my eyes... Alternatively, could some 222's go to fit the "express" cross Pennine services of Norwich-Liverpool and Newcastle-Liverpool - that last one is a shot in the dark I know, but a 7 car service on these would be sweet

 

[Manchester77]

(as the MML will not close the day that HS2 opens, in fact passenger number are likley to fall to those seen in or around the year 2000)

I'm not saying it would, I was meaning the type of traffic would shift from intercity to more freight and local commuter stuff.
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People keep talking of more IEP/SET orders, but I don't see that happening other than exercising extensions for ECML & GWML - the IEP/SET is a product created from a PFI to satisfy a specification specific for the PFI - follow on orders of 125mph express trains for the Hitachi factory will come I'm sure, but based on a new generation of Hitachi's rolling stock, not IEP/SET

I imagine if we do see any further orders of IEP stock then they won't come with the surrounding PFI 27.5 year contracts as the ECML and GWML ones have.

 

[Haydn1971]

To add, IEP/SET deliveries are set to continue into 2019 by which time MML electrification should be complete thus Hitachi couldn't supply IEP/SET units for the interim period whilst MML is being wired

 

[Manchester77]

Good point, and if new EMUs really are wanted then surely we should be seeing some kind of mobilisation to buy new stock.

 

[corfield]

IEP is the new standard for intercity, there is a political imperative to occupy the factory and the MML will not drop from 222 timings and comfort to clapped out Mk4s and 91s.

Nah, they're off the mainline and IEP everywhere is it. HS2 is unlikely to affect this decision any more than it has WC / EC rolling stock plans.

The fuss over 319s to the North is a case in point, cast off intercities dont go to the other main intercity routes, and the East Midlands wont take old 225s no matter how enthusiastic the enthusiasts are.

 

[Qwerty133]

The only station on HS2 in the East Midlands will be in the middle of no where so journey times will be no quicker, and will require changes, can't see many passengers liking that idea either :roll:
Can't see there being room for 2+9s at Leicester, St Pancras, Loughborough, East Midlands Parkway, Beeston, Long Eaton, Nottingham, Derby and Sheffield.
222s don't have tilt so can't go to Virgin (another thing that's been suggested on numerous occasions). Also hopefully XC will get the 221s, after the next WCML franchise has been let, I believe all the bidders last time were planning to replace them.
If anything the MML should receive the IEPs with the mk4s staying on the ECML if no more trains can be ordered, however personally I'd like to see a mix of 6 and 10 coach Pendolinos, if possible some being bi-modes, which could be ordered at the same time as an order to replace the voyagers at Virgin, which hopefully could also be bi-modes reducing the need for Locos.

 

[Haydn1971]

any spare sets could be used to strengthen other IEP services or to replace 22x's elsewhere on the network.

There will be loads of spare IEP/SET from ECML once HS2 starts running classic compatables on the York-Edinburgh services, leaving a small requirement for some Doncaster-London express services, but mostly the ECML south of Peterborough will be commuter style rolling stock

(which is a long winded way of saying when HS2 opens there is likely to still be a need for a significant number of the trains that would be replacing the 222's).

I see where you are going, but there's lots of life in the 222's yet, common sense would suggest that replacements for the 222 fleet are procured towards 2030 (end of life) rather than 2020 when there's still a decade of life in the 222's, by which time we will have a better idea of the true passenger impact of HS2 and what exactly needs to replace the 22x fleets, specifically with respect to XC which will effectively become the second largest franchise after GWML because ECML/WCML will cease to offer the same degree of express service as today due to direct replacement of most service needs by HS2 via captive and classic compatible routes.

 

[Qwerty133]

The fuss over 319s to the North is a case in point, cast off intercities dont go to the other main intercity routes, and the East Midlands wont take old 225s no matter how enthusiastic the enthusiasts are.

interestingly it's normally enthusiasts that live away from the MML that suggest it. Have absolutely no idea as to why that may be .

 

[Manchester77]

IEP is the new standard for intercity, there is a political imperative to occupy the factory and the MML will not drop from 222 timings and comfort to clapped out Mk4s and 91s.

It may well be the DfTs pet project but if they're serious about keeping out of the rolling stock procurement process then new intercity trains for the MML would have to go out to competitive tender and IEP sounds like it would have competition; especially after alstom seem to want to re enter the UK market with intercity stuff and avoid the highly competitive commuter stuff.

 

[Qwerty133]

I see where you are going, but there's lots of life in the 222's yet, common sense would suggest that replacements for the 222 fleet are procured towards 2030 (end of life) rather than 2020 when there's still a decade of life in the 222's.

I know some people dislike them but the end for 222s, if they are needing to be replaced (as no one can reliably look that far into the future), will be the late 2030s at the very earliest. Class 143s entered service in 1985, and Porterbrook have said that it's possible for them to be modified to stay in service past 2019, which they wouldn't do for a year or 2, so must think they can last until around 2023 at the earliest, which would be a service life of 38 years.
Applying that to the 222s would take us to 2043, before even considering that pacers weren't built as long term units.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

To add, IEP/SET deliveries are set to continue into 2019 by which time MML electrification should be complete thus Hitachi couldn't supply IEP/SET units for the interim period whilst MML is being wired

Perhaps I should re-quote what I said near the start of this thread regarding what stock I think will operate the MML post electrification.

Now this is a really interesting area. IC225's are one option that has been discussed for the MML, not sure tilt is economic to fit now given the age of the units and lack of tilt on the MML. However the mangers at East Midlands Trains have stared they would prefer new build Electric Multiple Units. By time electrification reaches Nottingham and Derby in 2018 (I think?) the EMT franchise will be re-let but procurement for electric trains will have to start under the current franchise in order to have them available in time. The Hitachi factory being built at Newton Acyliffe I believe has capacity to open a second production line so a fleet of IEP's could be built for the MML alongside the GW and ECML orders. As for where the 222's end up no one has said anything concrete but there has been a lot of speculation on this forum about them ending up on Cross Country or replacing the remaining HST's on West of England services.

To me IEP looks like the preferred option of the people currently running the franchise and 225's are less likely.

 

[Haydn1971]

The Mk4's are certainly not clapped out - I don't know enough about locos to comment on the Class 91's, but one thing is sure, government has no stake in the Hitachi factory, if it cannot win orders, it will shut, simple.

I've yet to see a good argument that spending about £1Bn on new EMU's for MML is economic against using existing stock (91+Mk4's) for 10 years until HS2 changes the dynamic of the rail industry for anything heading remotely north-west from London against a few minutes of lost time, which again, is assumed on the basis of anecdotal evidence that the 222's can accelerate faster than the 225 fleet - which as mentioned above, a drop to 6-7 carriages on a 225 could balance out the difference

 

[Manchester77]

but one thing is sure, government has no stake in the Hitachi factory, if it cannot win orders, it will shut, simple.

If we have any kind of tory government in 2015 I doubt they'd let the factory putting together plant shut since it's their hit thing for creating jobs in the north east which is important because Cameron doesn't seem to know where it is so he feels he'll need to prove he knows that the region exists.

(http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/25/david-cameron-tees-tyneside-interview_n_5620350.html the awkward interview)

 

[Qwerty133]

The Mk4's are certainly not clapped out - I don't know enough about locos to comment on the Class 91's, but one thing is sure, government has no stake in the Hitachi factory, if it cannot win orders, it will shut, simple.

I've yet to see a good argument that spending about £1Bn on new EMU's for MML is economic against using existing stock (91+Mk4's) for 10 years until HS2 changes the dynamic of the rail industry for anything heading remotely north-west from London against a few minutes of lost time, which again, is assumed on the basis of anecdotal evidence that the 222's can accelerate faster than the 225 fleet - which as mentioned above, drop to 6-7 carriages could balance out the difference

Just keeping the 222s for another 10 years would be preferable to getting slower, older trains.
Do you work for Eversholt? Can't think of any other reason, why you'd like slower journeys (unless of course your location is wrong).

 

[Manchester77]

Eversholt do seem to want a future for their mark IVs hence why we saw the refurbishment options mock up last year. And really it does seem foolish to get rid of the mark IVs when they're perfectly good carriages. With the options put forward I could see the option of refurb + new loco being accepted.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Eversholt do seem to want a future for their mark IVs hence why we saw the refurbishment options mock up last year. And really it does seem foolish to get rid of the mark IVs when they're perfectly good carriages. With the options put forward I could see the option of refurb + new loco being accepted.

There are other options for MK IV's than just the MML, replacing MK III's on the GEML for example

 

[Manchester77]

There are other options for MK IV's than just the MML, replacing MK III's on the GEML for example

Yes however more mark IVs would be used on the MML - less would be scrapped

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Yes however more mark IVs would be used on the MML - less would be scrapped

No reason why they couldn't be split between two operators 15 to GEML and 15 to XC for services from Mancester to the south coast for example.

 

[Haydn1971]

Do you work for Eversholt? Can't think of any other reason, why you'd like slower journeys (unless of course your location is wrong).

Haha, cynical I work for a very large Civil Engineering consultancy and often get involved with the costing and economics of all forms of transport schemes, but mostly design roads, traffic signs, signals and get involved in road safety.

You know that running diesel units under wires isn't going to happen - given that the IEP program started in about 2010 (putting aside early pre contract stuff) and that delivery is for 2017-2019, that puts a similar contract for MML into circa 2021-2023 timeframe if the DfT awarded this week, leaving a 2-4 year period of key routes electrification, longer if you take into account that wires will reach Corby by 2017, albeit Sheffield gets wires by 2020. I'll await with baited breath for the DfT announcement of the £1Bn train order for MML - second thoughts, I'll just jump on a new liveried 225 set in 2020 in Sheffield and take the predicted few minute delay on the nose.

 

[Qwerty133]

No reason why they couldn't be split between two operators 15 to GEML and 15 to XC for services from Mancester to the south coast for example.

What's the point in each TOC getting 1.6 recurring train sets worth of Mk4s

 

[MidlandMainlie]

What's the point in each TOC getting 1.6 recurring train sets worth of Mk4s

Oops forgot to mention one set spare, although at 9 carriages long you cold take one carriage from each rake to make 34x 8 carriage rakes and 1x 7 car rake which would help them to fit into more platforms without lengthening.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

To add, IEP/SET deliveries are set to continue into 2019 by which time MML electrification should be complete thus Hitachi couldn't supply IEP/SET units for the interim period whilst MML is being wired

MML electrification reaches Nottingham/Derby in Dec 2019 and Sheffield in Dec 2020.
The new East Midlands franchise starts in Oct 2017.
IEP/SET on ICEC will be introduced from December 2019, but MK4 sets may not be released until after the HSTs have left.
I doubt if there is any rush to decide MML rolling stock until the 2017 bids are judged, except possibly for the Corby services and they won't be Mk4s.
There is no obvious market for cascaded 222s. They are no use to West Coast because they don't tilt and are incompatible with Voyagers/390s (Alstom TMS etc).
XC is a possibility but they need a capacity solution before 2020.

 

[WatcherZero]

My bet would be Mk4's off to Scotland being paired with a new diesel locomotive.

 

[RichmondCommu]

The Mk4's are certainly not clapped out - I don't know enough about locos to comment on the Class 91's, but one thing is sure, government has no stake in the Hitachi factory, if it cannot win orders, it will shut, simple.

I've yet to see a good argument that spending about £1Bn on new EMU's for MML is economic against using existing stock (91+Mk4's) for 10 years until HS2 changes the dynamic of the rail industry for anything heading remotely north-west from London against a few minutes of lost time, which again, is assumed on the basis of anecdotal evidence that the 222's can accelerate faster than the 225 fleet - which as mentioned above, a drop to 6-7 carriages on a 225 could balance out the difference

Once again you are posting on a railway line of which you clearly have very little knowledge. For many peak time services on the MML six coaches is simply not enough. The fact is HS2 is likely to have very little affect on the MML which is something that NR / DfT have already stated. By using 225's on the MML you are simply staving off the inevitable purchase of new trains. EMU's will always be quicker than 225's and five car EMU's will of course be far more flexible.

 

[Manchester77]

My bet would be Mk4's off to Scotland being paired with a new diesel locomotive.

As the 'tourist trains' talked about by transport Scotland?