Suggestions for Dawlish avoiding route(s)

[21C101]

Actually I believe that to be precisely wrong. I'm firmly of the belief that the Okehampton option is the only one that guarantees the survival of the route through Dawlish precisely because it could only complement, rather than replace the GW mainline. The idea that its existance would lead to the whole of Torbay neing cut off is absurd.

Quite. I think it is a bolt on certainty that if the GWR had built a cutoff line in the 1930s, Teignmouth, Dawlish, Dawlish Warren and Starcross would have joined the long list of controversial Beeching closures in Devon, with the high cost of maintaining the seawall for a local service used to justify closure of the line and all trains running fast from Exeter to Newton Abbot.

Torquay and Paignton would have found themselves with a branch shuttle to Newton Abbot (probably singled) with a handful of through intercity trains to Exeter and London a day.

Should in the future the cutoff option be built (rather than a single line reopened via Okehampton) then the same will happen next time a major financial crises hits the railways (which will inevitably be next time the government faces a major financial crisis). With the national debt being £1500bn and still rising at £100bn a year, that may not be as far off as many people think.

Imagine what would happen if the government held an emergency budget and announced a massive programme of spending cuts including immediate halving of the grant to Network Rail and subsidies to TOCs - and they could - because every budget is a primary act of parliament which would make previous contracts and commitments void.

 

[47802]

Actually I believe that to be precisely wrong. I'm firmly of the belief that the Okehampton option is the only one that guarantees the survival of the route through Dawlish precisely because it could only complement, rather than replace the GW mainline. The idea that its existance would lead to the whole of Torbay neing cut off is absurd.

I don't think it is absurd at all, and in any alternate route I would rather see a route that's abandons Dawlish and Teignmouth if nessesary than the whole of south Devon.

If the Okehampton route was to rebuilt properly then I think it could start to get mission creep particularly if the Dawlish route became increasingly unreliable with the Okehampton increasingly been seen as the main route.

Also in my view there is no chance that if the Okehampton route was rebuilt that a diversionary route for Dawlish would be built as well however unreliable the Dawlish route became.

Of course at the end of the day all this talk will be academic anyway as no doubt the chosen option will be to try maintain the Dawlish route.

 

[Altnabreac]

There's a lot of "spin" about how much Scotland has achieved, but (since re-openings appear to be your "thing"), there's only been a little in around fifteen years of devolution (around a dozen miles from Caldercruix to Bathgate, half that distance for Stirling to Alloa), plus stations on existing track (Newcraighall etc).

In northern England in the same period we've seen the Brighouse line reopened to passenger traffic, the "big bang" expansion to Manchester Metrolink...

...plenty more to come in the next five years too (Ordsal Chord etc)

I think you protest a little too much about Scotland not doing much in rail reopenings.

Since 1998 there have been 5 line reopenings:

2002 Newcraighall, 2 miles, 2 stations - Newcraighall, Brunstane
2005 Larkhall, 3 miles, 3 stations - Larkhall, Merryton, Chatelherault
2005 Maryhill - Anniesland, 1 mile, 1 station - Kelvindale
2008 Alloa, 7 miles, 1 station - Alloa
2010 Airdrie - Bathgate, 14 miles, 3 new stations, 2 relocated stations - Blackridge, Caldercuix, Armadale, Bathgate, Drumgelloch

Plus (re)opening 9 stations on existing lines: Dalgety Bay, Drumfrochar, Dunfermline Queen Margaret, Howwood, Beauly, Edinburgh Park, Gartcosh, Laurencekirk, Conon Bridge.

Then next year we have Borders Rail with another 31 miles of new track and 7 stations, Shawfair, Eskbank, Newtongrange, Gorebridge, Stow, Galashiels, Tweedbank.

Altogether thats 28 new stations and 58 miles of new track post devolution.

I'd be interested to see the comparable England outside Greater London figure...

 

[Busaholic]

It is a great shame, nay, scandal, that no politician in the area west of Exeter, certainly at a national level, is trying to get to grips with the long-term rail strategy of the region. With a General Election at last on the horizon and so many MPs with small majorities you might have thought some of them could have spent their long recesses boning up on the subject. It seems with some that once the Sleeper was safe that was the end of their involvement: the cynical might say their self-interest had been served. The Lib Dems in particular must consider theirs is now a cause beyond hope, for why else with wafer-thin majorities would you not get stuck in? UKIP seem to think they have winnable seats down here, including George 'Useless' Eustice's Camborne, but Nigel Farage hasn't been able to spare a fag packet yet to write on the back of, so no discernible transport policy.Labour's not got a cat in hell's chance, other than some of Plymouth and, possibly, Camborne, which must be why they insult our intelligence by proffering some dire candidates.Anyway, UKIP's answer to Dawlish would probably be that the water emanated from France and once we left the EU that problem, along with all others, would simply disappear.

 

[HowardGWR]

It is a great shame, nay, scandal, that no politician in the area west of Exeter, certainly at a national level, is trying to get to grips with the long-term rail strategy of the region.

The rest of your post was political comment. The group chaired by Ben Bradshaw has already been cited. I do accept that reincarnation of the Okehampton route (note spelling, sigh) could have been promoted whether there had been problems at Dawlish, or otherwise. Having had experience of dealing with the local politicians, I find that the enthusiasm for building roads has pushed rail to the background for decades, and only now is beginning to find some recognition. Devon County Council has given serious consideration to the Okehampton to Exeter line, including the proposal for a new parking station at Okehampton East. The developer assisted Plymouth to Tavistock link is on its way.

So it's just the bit in between the two places that is the major project and I believe a good case for it can be made on housing development, environmentally-sustainable connectivity and ditto tourism. The diversion function is a welcome bonus and that's how it should be viewed.

Four tracking from Exeter to NA, via a separated trajectory, is another project and deserves a separate justification. I do notice that the bottleneck between NA and Dawlish Warren gives daily operational problems, as others have mentioned - and that is just with a recently improved half hourly local service.

 

[21C101]

Expanding Okehampton into a 30,000 population garden city might be an option.

 

[deltic08]

Beeching just lied in his Report to justify closing as many lines as possible even ones that were marginally profitable. If he could do it for Harrogate-Ripon-Northallerton with operating costs of £15k and revenue of £18k generated at Ripon station per annum, but his Report records revenue of only £13k, he could have done it for any line.

Devon and Cornwall was badly hit by Beeching and is understandably still bitter because he was ignorant of or disregarded contributory revenue. The likes of Padstow, Bude, Ilfracombe, Bideford, Seaton, Sidmouth, Budleigh Salterton and Lyme Regis were destinations for thousand of holidaymakers who bought their return tickets at inland stations. This did not show in revenue generated at these resorts. Not even the return half of it. Closing more than one branch on any route causes that route to wilt and die. This revenue was lost forever to BR post Beeching and amounted to £millions per annum as cars and road coaches were used instead. Clever or ignorant? Clever if he knew and chose to disregard it but also a liar and a cheat. Can you believe his dishonesty was rewarded with a peerage?

Considering the Afghan war has cost this country £19billion, and the lives of 450 soldiers, £2-£300m should be spent to reopen the LSWR route regardless of whether Dawlish is secure or not. Reinstating 31 miles from Edinburgh to Tweedbank has only cost £300m including quite large structures and many bridges.

 

[paul1609]

Quite drastically since Plymouth Airport closed in December 2011.

If you ever flew to Plymouth you'd have know how little the air service would have affected rail traffic. The only IC trains to/from Plymouth that are busy are the through trains from Cornwall.It has always been the case in my 25 years experience that you could get a whole standard class coach to yourself on a midday departure from plymouth outside of the school holidays.

 

[HarleyDavidson]

Beeching just lied in his Report to justify closing as many lines as possible even ones that were marginally profitable. If he could do it for Harrogate-Ripon-Northallerton with operating costs of £15k and revenue of £18k generated at Ripon station per annum, but his Report records revenue of only £13k, he could have done it for any line.

Devon and Cornwall was badly hit by Beeching and is understandably still bitter because he was ignorant of or disregarded contributory revenue. The likes of Padstow, Bude, Ilfracombe, Bideford, Seaton, Sidmouth, Budleigh Salterton and Lyme Regis were destinations for thousand of holidaymakers who bought their return tickets at inland stations. This did not show in revenue generated at these resorts. Not even the return half of it. Closing more than one branch on any route causes that route to wilt and die. This revenue was lost forever to BR post Beeching and amounted to £millions per annum as cars and road coaches were used instead. Clever or ignorant? Clever if he knew and chose to disregard it but also a liar and a cheat. Can you believe his dishonesty was rewarded with a peerage?

Considering the Afghan war has cost this country £19billion, and the lives of 450 soldiers, £2-£300m should be spent to reopen the LSWR route regardless of whether Dawlish is secure or not. Reinstating 31 miles from Edinburgh to Tweedbank has only cost £300m including quite large structures and many bridges.

Well said that man.

 

[HowardGWR]

I don't think Beeching lied about the data, but the data that was gathered was sometimes faulty. However, in those days, the branch trains were mostly nearly empty, sometimes with only OCS bods and an occasional trainspotter. A summer saturday would see a bit of a flurry, that's all.

It's different now and people travel 50 miles and more for work and pleasure. That's why rail in the west country can fulfill a need, as elsewhere in semi-rural areas.

 

[snowball]

On a semi-related note, if the Dawlish route ever were to be electrified with overhead, would sea spray, or watch crashing over the sea wall cause any problems with the overhead, such as short circuits or any safety issues?

I think it is fairly safe to say that it is unelectrifiable.

At the time of the Dawlish collapse at least one picture was posted on here of an electric train in Ayrshire running successfully through coastal storms.

 

[LateThanNever]

Expanding Okehampton into a 30,000 population garden city might be an option.

It was 26,000 in 2009 and there has been a lot more house building since, so I reckon we are already there. The garden bit will be Dartmoor!

Nigel Farage hasn't been able to spare a fag packet yet to write on the back of, so no discernible transport policy. Anyway, UKIP's answer to Dawlish would probably be that the water emanated from France and once we left the EU that problem, along with all others, would simply disappear.

I like it! With these well thought through ideas I think you should volunteer as Farage's fag packet carrier and transport minister!

 

[deltic08]

At the time of the Dawlish collapse at least one picture was posted on here of an electric train in Ayrshire running successfully through coastal storms.

The only problem with that amount of water is arcing through the spray either to the loco/coach or trackside structures and tripping out supply but apart from that as you say Ayrshire and Craigendoran have some spectacular washovers of electric trains without failures. Would Dawlish be any worse?

 

[HSTEd]

It is doubtful.

In Ayrshire they just increased the clearances to values more normally associated with 50kV equipment.

 

[Rapidash]

Surely in this age of 'last mile' diesel engines or batteries, you'd just avoid leccyfying the bit between Dawlish Warren and Teignmouth? You'd be reducing speed a bit, sure, but I'll take a brief slow down over over nothing at all.

 

[yorksrob]

The idea that we can build a 30mph/50mph (predominantly) single track line on a shoestring *and* have something capable of being a diversionary route for HSTs etc is naive.

Can't have it both ways.

Yet again, you ignore the fact that the single track West of England mainline has proved its value in terms of diversions again and again. Yes there's a limit to how rustic such a route could be, but it doesn't have to be an all singing, all dancing double track racetrack.

I agree - an Okehampton route should stand/ fall on its own merits - trying to piggyback upon the Dawlish issue is desperate - if Okehampton is to go ahead then it needs to be based upon what happens 99% of the time (regardless of the line at Dawlish)

Last time you posted, you wanted the Okehampton route to be considered in little bits and pieces, one to Tavistock, a bit to Okehampton and a bit in the middle. Is this an admission that benefits of Plymouth - Tavistock - National Park - Okehampton - Crediton - Exeter transport corridor should be considered as a whole ?

Reopening Bere Alston to Tavistock is going to annoy the "traditional" element because the Tavistock to Plymouth market is the cherry on the cake of full reopening. Take that away and the remaining "cake" isn't that remarkable.

It would indeed be a shame (and typical of the blinkered attitude to reopenings in England) if the Tavistock reopening were to signal the end of aspirations for the whole route. Nevertheless, I think the vast majority of us supporting an expansion of the railway network would see it as a great move forward, particularly given the pitiful record of England on line reopenings.

Selby is a great example.

British Rail decided to solve a problem by building a new alignment that gave longer distance passengers a faster journey (than the existing service through Selby).

If this Forum had been around in the 1980s then we'd have seen people suggesting that the best way of dealing with the Selby subsidence would have been to re-open the line from York to Teesside via Pickering and Goathland instead (and said that no long distance passengers would be bothered about the time saving of the route that BR chose)

Selby was a great example of many things, however there is one key difference between that case and Dawlish. It was built because the Selby coalfield was expected to permanently undermine the ECML. If it was thought that the route at Dawlish was about to be permanently undermined in such a way, I would, regretfully have to concede that a new alignment further inland would have to be built to replace it. Happily, this is not the case and NR have made an assessment that fundamentally the coastal route at Dawlish is maintainable. What Dawlish suffers is not a terminal issue, rather a periodical problem with the weather. For this, an alternative secondary route is more than adequate.

The froth about LSWR/ GWR just makes the Okehampton supporters look like they are more interested in fighting historic battles than providing modern solutions.

I really don't care whether the current Exeter - Plymouth line was built by the GWR or LSWR (or UKIP or HSBC or anyone else) - it matters not, in terms of "solving" the Dawlish issue.

I've lain my cards on the table in that I believe the central Devon route is, and should remain the main line, just as the route through Newbury should East of Exeter. However, as with the East, there is a need for an alternative, serving settlements in central Devon.
Given that there are dozens/ hundreds of investments that we *could* be making, the BCR is the best benchmark that we have for some sober comparison/ analysis.

If you don't want to trust the analysis then fair enough, but we need to find a way compare the various different projects - otherwise we get into an emotive mess where everyone wants their own pet project to have some special case.

There is an element of truth to that. We certainly need a methodology that prioritises journey opportunities that currently do not exist at all, over ten minute savings which, in reality, will have very little impact on whether the majority of people contemplating that journey, will either choose the train, or chose to travel at all.

The long branchlike nature of the main line west of Exeter does lead to a particular risk of a large portion of the country being cut off from the railway network. Local Authorities in the area recognise this, champers of commerce recognise this, as do local enterprise partnerships. The methodology should recognise this as well.

Yes - and it serves a decent number of people day in/ day out (given the population of Yeovil etc) - which is why I think that it'd be more useful 99% of the time than the Okehampton route.

The Okehampton route would serve Tavistock, Okehampton, Crediton, a national park and probaly Launceston as well. It would serve a decent hinterland.

The fact that some insist on Okehampton having a year round service, but are happy for South Devon to be abandoned at times of disruption is a strange thing.

I think it's more likely that Okehampton would experience disruption every now and again due to weather and engineering works etc, and this would probably require some short bustitutions. However, the prospect of the whole of the West of England west of Exeter being cut off from the rest of the network for weeks on end again would fortunately be highly unlikely
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I think you protest a little too much about Scotland not doing much in rail reopenings.

Since 1998 there have been 5 line reopenings:

2002 Newcraighall, 2 miles, 2 stations - Newcraighall, Brunstane
2005 Larkhall, 3 miles, 3 stations - Larkhall, Merryton, Chatelherault
2005 Maryhill - Anniesland, 1 mile, 1 station - Kelvindale
2008 Alloa, 7 miles, 1 station - Alloa
2010 Airdrie - Bathgate, 14 miles, 3 new stations, 2 relocated stations - Blackridge, Caldercuix, Armadale, Bathgate, Drumgelloch

Plus (re)opening 9 stations on existing lines: Dalgety Bay, Drumfrochar, Dunfermline Queen Margaret, Howwood, Beauly, Edinburgh Park, Gartcosh, Laurencekirk, Conon Bridge.

Then next year we have Borders Rail with another 31 miles of new track and 7 stations, Shawfair, Eskbank, Newtongrange, Gorebridge, Stow, Galashiels, Tweedbank.

Altogether thats 28 new stations and 58 miles of new track post devolution.

I'd be interested to see the comparable England outside Greater London figure...

Absolutely. A very impressive list of achievements that puts England to shame.

 

[21C101]

Worth noting that the Selby Diversion was completed in May in 1983 at a cost of £63 million (reference#1). Using the bank of England inflation calculator; that equates to £185 million in 2013 money.

That £185 million (in 2013 money) got the following:

• Purchase of all the land to build the railway on
• 14 miles of double track main line railway suitable for 125mph running on an entirely new alignment
• 4 aspect signalling throughout
• New high speed junctions at both ends
• A grade separated double junction in the middle at Hambleton.
• 14 new road under or overbridges
• New embankment/cutting for approaches to new road bridges
• 1.5km of new construction of road for diverted roads
• 16 new foot bridges or underpasses
• 18 new culverts for streams/small rivers
• 2 new bridges over major rivers
• 2 new viaducts
• Excavation of numerous cuttings
• Construction of numerous embankments

This year we are told that reopening 20 miles of single line railway on a two track existing formation, with two small structures missing and one major viaduct needing strengthening or replacing, but otherwise all other major structures likely to be in good condition (since they were made of granite and most of them are open to the public as a cycleway), will cost £655 million to £700 million (Reference #2)

But of course BR were incompentent numpties, not worth regarding, as we keep being told here.


(#1) http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/content/article/10.1680/iicep.1986.746

(#2) http://www.networkrail.co.uk/public...lience/west-of-exeter-route-resilience-study/

 

[Bald Rick]

I think you protest a little too much about Scotland not doing much in rail reopenings.

Since 1998 there have been 5 line reopenings:

2002 Newcraighall, 2 miles, 2 stations - Newcraighall, Brunstane
2005 Larkhall, 3 miles, 3 stations - Larkhall, Merryton, Chatelherault
2005 Maryhill - Anniesland, 1 mile, 1 station - Kelvindale
2008 Alloa, 7 miles, 1 station - Alloa
2010 Airdrie - Bathgate, 14 miles, 3 new stations, 2 relocated stations - Blackridge, Caldercuix, Armadale, Bathgate, Drumgelloch

Plus (re)opening 9 stations on existing lines: Dalgety Bay, Drumfrochar, Dunfermline Queen Margaret, Howwood, Beauly, Edinburgh Park, Gartcosh, Laurencekirk, Conon Bridge.

Then next year we have Borders Rail with another 31 miles of new track and 7 stations, Shawfair, Eskbank, Newtongrange, Gorebridge, Stow, Galashiels, Tweedbank.

Altogether thats 28 new stations and 58 miles of new track post devolution.

I'd be interested to see the comparable England outside Greater London figure...

Doing this from memory, no doubt others will chip in. Starting 1/4/94 - ie post railway break up when this all supposedly got a lot more difficult. Can't be bothered to check stations, perhaps someone else can do that.

1995? Birmingham Snow Hill - Smethwick
1995 Newstead - Mansfield
1998 Mansfield - Worksop
2000? Halifax - Huddersfield
2003 Folkestone - Fawkham Jn
2007 Fawkham Jn - Greater London Boundary (to fit with the question...)
2010? Aylesbury - Aylesbury VP

I'm sure I've missed one. Plus plenty of new stations across the network.

Then of course, Manchester, Nottingham, Sheffield and the West Midlands chose to build tram lines on some routes as a more appropriate answer than heavy rail. And in these cases, arguably the tram is better than the railway would have been. Now I don't have the figures to hand, but I guess Manchester's network alone is larger than all of Scotland's new lines to date plus the Edinburgh tram.

The other point is that all of Scotland's openings have been accompanied by proposals (usually realised) for major housing development and/or business development on the route to generate the traffic to help justify the railway.

 

[yorksrob]

The other point is that all of Scotland's openings have been accompanied by proposals (usually realised) for major housing development and/or business development on the route to generate the traffic to help justify the railway.

Just as the Okehampton route is having a substantial amount of new housing itself in the Tavistock area.

Personally, I'm not sure I'd count HS1 as it doesn't really serve anywhere that wasn't on the railway network beforehand (except Ebbsfleet I suppose, but that seems to have been built largely because of the railway rather than the other way round).

 

[Bald Rick]

Worth noting that the Selby Diversion was completed in May in 1983 at a cost of £63 million (reference#1). Using the bank of England inflation calculator; that equates to £185 million in 2013 money.

That £185 million (in 2013 money) got the following:

• Purchase of all the land to build the railway on
• 14 miles of double track main line railway suitable for 125mph running on an entirely new alignment
• 4 aspect signalling throughout
• New high speed junctions at both ends
• A grade separated double junction in the middle at Hambleton.
• 14 new road under or overbridges
• 16 new foot bridges or underpasses
• 18 new culverts for streams/small rivers
• 2 new bridges over major rivers
• 2 new viaducts
• Excavation of numerous cuttings
• Construction of numerous embankments

This year we are told that reopening 20 miles of single line railway on a two track existing formation, with two small structures missing and one major viaduct needing strengthening or replacing, but otherwise all other major structures in good condition (since they were made of granite), will cost £655 million to £700 million (Reference #2)

But of course BR were incompentent numpties, not worth regarding, as we keep being told here.


(#1) http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/content/article/10.1680/iicep.1986.746

(#2) http://www.networkrail.co.uk/public...lience/west-of-exeter-route-resilience-study/

True.

Being slightly nit picky, the £60m was not the May 1983 price but a couple of years earlier, so it's more like £220m in current prices. And, as with all things costed back then, a lot of it was not included as it was a corporate overhead or lost in the system, eg design (a mate of mine did a couple of the bridges), engineering trains. So call it £280m. No requirement for TPWS, Train-shore radio, safe cess for staff, or relocating a bike track. £300m. No need to pay the train operators for the disruption caused to build those new junctions at either end, or the junctions / bridge at Hambleton. £310m.

Also, if you could pick somewhere to build a new railway that would be it: almost flat, hardly any neighbours to worry about to compensate, easy access, loads of cheap labour nearby.

But yes, the numbers quoted are too high - but that's risk management for you.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Just as the Okehampton route is having a substantial amount of new housing itself in the Tavistock area.

AIUI 750 new homes for Tavistock. Larkhall (as an example) had at least 1750.

 

[21C101]

True.

Being slightly nit picky, the £60m was not the May 1983 price but a couple of years earlier, so it's more like £220m in current prices. And, as with all things costed back then, a lot of it was not included as it was a corporate overhead or lost in the system, eg design (a mate of mine did a couple of the bridges), engineering trains. So call it £280m. No requirement for TPWS, Train-shore radio, safe cess for staff, or relocating a bike track. £300m. No need to pay the train operators for the disruption caused to build those new junctions at either end, or the junctions / bridge at Hambleton. £310m.

Also, if you could pick somewhere to build a new railway that would be it: almost flat, hardly any neighbours to worry about to compensate, easy access, loads of cheap labour nearby.

But yes, the numbers quoted are too high - but that's risk management for you.

And outsourcing all your designers - although that has been reversed in part in recent years, I've had little or no involvement with NR or its predecessor since the turn of the century, but there is no doubt that a lot of things have got immeasurably better since Railtrack collapsed and was replaced by NR.

 

[Altnabreac]

The other point is that all of Scotland's openings have been accompanied by proposals (usually realised) for major housing development and/or business development on the route to generate the traffic to help justify the railway.

This point can't be emphasised enough to people or groups trying to promote reopenings. New housing creates a virtuous circle of funding to help pay a reopening's capital costs and passengers to make it a revenue success.

Equally a new station can kickstart housing growth in a previously unfashionable area. In Scotland Armadale is a fantastic example of this with hundreds of new houses following on the heels of the Airdrie - Bathgate line.

The other lesson is that it's all about Travel to Work areas. A 45-60 minute (75 at a push) connection to a big employment centre is key. The relevance here is that Okehampton - Exeter and Tavistock - Plymouth both have a decent business case on this basis. The bit in the middle - not so much.

 

[HowardGWR]

The other lesson is that it's all about Travel to Work areas. A 45-60 minute (75 at a push) connection to a big employment centre is key. The relevance here is that Okehampton - Exeter and Tavistock - Plymouth both have a decent business case on this basis. The bit in the middle - not so much.

I suppose it could be well argued that a full connection would offer both town's residents job opportunities in both cities and also equalise flows to some extent, similar, I imagine, with intermediate stations on the Glasgow to Edinburgh run. There is substantial housing developed planned for Okehampton too, by the way.

 

[yorksrob]

The other lesson is that it's all about Travel to Work areas. A 45-60 minute (75 at a push) connection to a big employment centre is key. The relevance here is that Okehampton - Exeter and Tavistock - Plymouth both have a decent business case on this basis. The bit in the middle - not so much.

I understand that the end to end journey between Exeter and Plymouth (via Okehampton) could potentially be around 75 minutes, so Okehampton - Plymouth and Tavistock - Exeter could both represent travel to work areas.

 

[HowardGWR]

I understand that the end to end journey between Exeter and Plymouth (via Okehampton) could potentially be around 75 minutes, so Okehampton - Plymouth and Tavistock - Exeter could both represent travel to work areas.

That's wot I wrote!

 

[LateThanNever]

This point can't be emphasised enough to people or groups trying to promote reopenings. New housing creates a virtuous circle of funding to help pay a reopening's capital costs and passengers to make it a revenue success.

Equally a new station can kickstart housing growth in a previously unfashionable area. In Scotland Armadale is a fantastic example of this with hundreds of new houses following on the heels of the Airdrie - Bathgate line.

The other lesson is that it's all about Travel to Work areas. A 45-60 minute (75 at a push) connection to a big employment centre is key. The relevance here is that Okehampton - Exeter and Tavistock - Plymouth both have a decent business case on this basis. The bit in the middle - not so much.

Well in fact there is certainly a lot of commercial travel between Exeter and Plymouth (me included) but if Okehampton - Exeter could be double track (pretty much existing) and Tavistock - Plymouth reinstated (much existing) then with a single track across Dartmoor as a start we'd have a good beginning to better connections. Can't really believe we are being so cautious when the route 90% exists already and the only real major criticism seem to be that clearances for maintenance are not modern. But then of course nor are they in most of the UK rail network!

 

[yorksrob]

That's wot I wrote!

oops, pipped me to the post !

 

[Altnabreac]

I understand that the end to end journey between Exeter and Plymouth (via Okehampton) could potentially be around 75 minutes, so Okehampton - Plymouth and Tavistock - Exeter could both represent travel to work areas.

I'm not saying there won't be any demand but there will be less demand to the secondary TTWA as existing commute patterns are strongly engraved.

With Airdrie - Bathgate we see the central section is much quieter than the ends and you're looking at both faster journey times and much larger populations (100,000 or so at each end) to generate West Lothian - Glasgow and North Lanarkshire - Edinburgh traffic.

This can change slowly over time especially as new people move in to the area but I suspect the numbers just won't be enough to make a decent BCR for the central section even if the costs came down.

 

[Bald Rick]

Can't really believe we are being so cautious when the route 90% exists already and the only real major criticism seem to be that clearances for maintenance are not modern. But then of course nor are they in most of the UK rail network!

Let's stick to facts; little more than half exists already, and rather more than half of that is single track, or low speed, or knackered, or all of the above. There's at least 40 miles of railway to upgrade or build to run even the most basic of services for a diversion.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

This point can't be emphasised enough to people or groups trying to promote reopenings. New housing creates a virtuous circle of funding to help pay a reopening's capital costs and passengers to make it a revenue success.

Quite. Not a popular tactic in East Sussex though.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not saying there won't be any demand but there will be less demand to the secondary TTWA as existing commute patterns are strongly engraved.

With Airdrie - Bathgate we see the central section is much quieter than the ends and you're looking at both faster journey times and much larger populations (100,000 or so at each end) to generate West Lothian - Glasgow and North Lanarkshire - Edinburgh traffic.

This can change slowly over time especially as new people move in to the area but I suspect the numbers just won't be enough to make a decent BCR for the central section even if the costs came down.

But had you been starting from scratch with Airdrie - Bathgate and you were contemplating either re-building or rejuvenating the ends of the route as well, I think you would be better off rebuilding the whole route than just two dead end branches because the route as a whole would be more use to the area than individual sections. This is the logic that Scotland has grasped but so many on here haven't.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Let's stick to facts; little more than half exists already, and rather more than half of that is single track, or low speed, or knackered, or all of the above. There's at least 40 miles of railway to upgrade or build to run even the most basic of services for a diversion.

Let's also not forget that a considerable amount of that section needing upgrading, would be of great benefit to North Devon services as well.