Longannet closure and SAK rail link

[najaB]

In light of the announcement that Longannet power station is to close next year, rather than in 2020:

Scottish Power has announced plans to close its huge coal-fired power station at Longannet in Fife early next year.
The move comes after the energy firm failed to win a crucial contract from National Grid.
Scottish Power said it was "extremely disappointed" at National Grid's decision.
It had previously indicated Longannet would have to shut if it lost out in a contest to help maintain voltage levels in the nation's electricity supply.
The SSE-operated gas-fired power station at Peterhead won the contract at the expense of Scottish Power and a third bidder.
The Scottish government said it would hold urgent discussions with Scottish Power, Fife Council and unions about Longannet, which employs about 270 people.
MSPs heard earlier this month that Longannet would close unless Scottish Power secured the £15m contract, which will run from April 2016 to September 2017.

Have we gotten our money's worth out of the reopening of the SAK route? Is their potential to upgrade the route to provide passenger servoces, or will it likely be abandoned?

 

[cf111]

Hunterston also supplies Drax, although in far smaller quantities than Longannet.

 

[Carlisle]

Surprised they are closing such a large plant so quickly if all the recent media frenzy about shortages the lights going out have any truth in them

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Surprised they are closing such a large plant so quickly if all the recent media frenzy about shortages the lights going have any truth in them

The contract they have lost is only 18 months long.
It's not at all obvious what will happen long term.
You would have thought there would be a longer-term contract to bid for.
If the Grid is against coal generation I would have thought conversion to biomass operation was a possibility, as at Drax.
That would actually require greater rail tonnages than coal.

 

[najaB]

Surprised they are closing such a large plant so quickly if all the recent media frenzy about shortages the lights going out have any truth in them

The location makes it expensive to get the power to the grid. Apparently the £15M contract was the difference between the station being viable or not since it was guaranteed income, it probably covered the fixed costs.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Hunterston also supplies Drax, although in far smaller quantities than Longannet.

Hunterston - Drax traffic doesn't use the SAK route though.

 

[cf111]

That's a fair point .

 

[kermit]

According to The Scotsman, passenger use is on the cards;

http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/longannet-plant-axe-could-be-green-light-for-trains-1-3718985

 

[380gk]

No news in that article, all speculation. And given that engineering and investment has been agreed for the next few years, dont hold your breath.

 

[Altnabreac]

In light of the announcement that Longannet power station is to close next year, rather than in 2020:
Have we gotten our money's worth out of the reopening of the SAK route? Is their potential to upgrade the route to provide passenger servoces, or will it likely be abandoned?

A full business case study would be needed but it's certainly been looked at a few times and not ruled out completely. Without the freight traffic it would be much easier to implement.

Fife Structure plan has this to say:

Passenger rail on Dunfermline-Kincardine-Alloa-Stirling line
Long term
Clackmannanshire Council/ Fife Council/ SEStran/ Scottish Government

A STAG Appraisal has been carried out looking at Freight and Passenger options, between Clackmannanshire and Fife, significant upgrading would be required on the line before it would be suitable for passenger use, including the implementation of the Charleston Rail Junction, Dunfermline- Additional Southern Link. Land envelope for the Charlestown Rail Chord is included in the Dunfermline and West Fife Local Plan.

The chord mentioned would only be necessary if you wanted to run a service direct to Edinburgh instead of a simple Glasgow - Alloa - Dunfermline service.

I don't think the line from Alloa - Kincardine would need too much spent to upgrade it to passenger usage. Suspect the Dunfermline - Kincardine section might need a bit more investment.

Call it £30m for upgrading track / formations.

4-5 stations at £2-3m each and you're still looking at less than £50m so it's potentially a relatively cheap intervention for the Scottish Government and Fife / Clacks councils.

Clackmannan 3,500
Kincardine 3,000
Culross 500 / Valleyfield 3,500
Cairneyhill 2,500

Add in another 5,000 people in the West Fife hinterland of Oakley, Saline, Blairhall and you're still only talking about 13,000 people.

I suspect to make a decent business case you'd need the Fife development plan to put a load more houses into some of these villages.

Not impossible to happen though especially as a response to the potential job losses in the area from the plant closing.

 

[jopsuk]

Certainly a much more likely re-opening than the Alloa-Dunfermline direct line- which has been completely taken up, is now a cycleway from Clackmannan to Dunfermline, has buildings on it at the Dunfermline end and only passes close to the village of Oakley (population 2300)- I belive that would fail all Altnabreac's tests for reopening!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's 17 miles of 30mph single track with no loops and minimal signalling, designed for heavy freight.
There will probably be a hefty price tag to upgrade it to a workable 70mph passenger line with an intermediate loop.

 

[me123]

I'm fully in support of extending the line to Dunfermline. Glasgow to Fife is served by just 1tpd at present, and I think a regular link to Glasgow would be of a great economic boost to the area. I would propose extending the 1tph Glasgow-Alloa on to Dunfermline Queen Margaret, with intermediate stations as appropriate (I don't know enough about the local area to make any educated suggestions).

I suggest the extension to Queen Margaret to allow links to Queen Margaret Hospital, Fife College and retail facilities in the area. There's also a ready-made turn back facility available at little to no additional cost.

I'm not overly convinced about running the trains to Edinburgh. Whilst it is a very important destination, it will require an additional chord and misses out Dunfermline. Furthermore, it adds an extra train across the busy Forth Bridge, with no plans for additional capacity. The Scotsman's article talks about Stirling-Dunfermline-Edinburgh trains, and seems to fail to realise that you'd need to reverse the train somewhere to make this happen! Let's make an attractive connection at Dunfermline Town instead - I see a subway exists which would provide step-free access.

 

[Altnabreac]

Certainly a much more likely re-opening than the Alloa-Dunfermline direct line- which has been completely taken up, is now a cycleway from Clackmannan to Dunfermline, has buildings on it at the Dunfermline end and only passes close to the village of Oakley (population 2300)- I belive that would fail all Altnabreac's tests for reopening!

It certainly would!

 

[Bodiddly]

I suspect the residents along the lineside who were moaning about the noise of the freight trains will be over the moon with this decision.

 

[me123]

158s whizzing past once an hour are considerably quieter than 66s and a half mile of coal wagons crawling through, and won't generate noise for as long. In fact, by the time anything gets going there'll probably be wires up making the noise even quieter.

So I'm sure they will have less to moan about. (Doesn't mean they won't moan, of course...)

 

[marks87]

The Scotsman's article talks about Stirling-Dunfermline-Edinburgh trains, and seems to fail to realise that you'd need to reverse the train somewhere to make this happen!

You can continue clockwise round the Fife Circle.

 

[me123]

You can continue clockwise round the Fife Circle.

True, and there would be a link to Kirkcaldy. To advertise it as a through train to Edinburgh would be a bit crazy, given that you'd be quicker changing at Dunfermline or indeed going back to Stirling.

You'd still have the issue of it taking up a path over the Forth Bridge. There's already 1tph over the whole Fife Circle in each direction, and this would be an additional path. (Well, that's not entirely true. You could run 2tph Cowdenbeath - Edinburgh and 2tph Glenrothes-Edinburgh, one of which comes from Stirling, but you'd be depriving the West Side of the circle of direct service to Edinburgh in the process).

 

[NSEFAN]

There's no need to overcomplicate this. Simply extend the Glasgow - Alloa services to Dunfermline where people can connect onto the service to Edinburgh.

 

[me123]

^Agree completely. Going beyond Dunfermline Queen Margaret has limited benefit, and if you time the services right you can arrange connections to both Edinburgh and, indeed, all the way around the Fife Circle for anyone who wants it.

(Although I wouldn't rule out terminating Cowdenbeath, where trains can turn back, if it wouldn't block the line).

 

[headshot119]

^Agree completely. Going beyond Dunfermline Queen Margaret has limited benefit, and if you time the services right you can arrange connections to both Edinburgh and, indeed, all the way around the Fife Circle for anyone who wants it.

(Although I wouldn't rule out terminating Cowdenbeath, where trains can turn back, if it wouldn't block the line).

1) Dunfermline Town - You can turn round in the platform back towards Alloa
2) Dunfermline Queen Margaret - You'd have to shunt via Townhill loops to turn back
3) Cowdenbeath - You can turn round in the platform back towards Alloa
4) Glenrothes with Thornton

I'd say in order of sense it's probably 1,3,4,2.

 

[me123]

I don't think it's as simple as ranking them. You'd need to see the provisional timetable to see what you need to do.

For example, if the train gets to Dunfermline Town and can turn back in 5-10 minutes without blocking the line, then that's a good place to turn back. Same goes for Cowdenbeath. However, if you're looking at, say, 30 minutes between turns, you'll be better to turn back at Queen Margaret. This clears the unit off the main line, letting other passenger and freight trains pass unimpeded whilst the unit awaits its return journey to Glasgow.

As I've said as well, I think there could be some economic benefit in linking to Queen Margaret station, with Queen Margaret Hospital and Fife College in close proximity. Assuming, of course, that it fits in with the timetable.

A quick glance at RTT shows that a freight service runs the route in about an hour. Currently, Alloa services sit in the station for about 30 minutes. Unless the journey time is about 20 minutes to Dunfermline Town from Alloa, I think it would be operationally better to run to Queen Margaret and clear the line (although with EGIP we could be looking at a completely different timetable).

 

[Altnabreac]

I don't think it's as simple as ranking them. You'd need to see the provisional timetable to see what you need to do.

For example, if the train gets to Dunfermline Town and can turn back in 5-10 minutes without blocking the line, then that's a good place to turn back. Same goes for Cowdenbeath. However, if you're looking at, say, 30 minutes between turns, you'll be better to turn back at Queen Margaret. This clears the unit off the main line, letting other passenger and freight trains pass unimpeded whilst the unit awaits its return journey to Glasgow.

As I've said as well, I think there could be some economic benefit in linking to Queen Margaret station, with Queen Margaret Hospital and Fife College in close proximity. Assuming, of course, that it fits in with the timetable.

A quick glance at RTT shows that a freight service runs the route in about an hour. Currently, Alloa services sit in the station for about 30 minutes. Unless the journey time is about 20 minutes to Dunfermline Town from Alloa, I think it would be operationally better to run to Queen Margaret and clear the line (although with EGIP we could be looking at a completely different timetable).

The other complicating factor is electrification.

By Dec 2018 there will only be electric services running to Alloa and a diesel service won't be able to keep to the new accelerated timings on Glasgow - Stirling.

So the options are:

1. Cut back Glasgow - Alloa services to Stirling and run a diesel Stirling - Dunfermline service.
2. Run separate electric Glasgow - Alloa and diesel Stirling - Dunfermline services. Additional dynamic loop infrastructure needed for this.
3. Electrify Alloa - Dunfermline and run Glasgow - Dunfermline services.
4. Electrify Alloa - Dunfermline - some of Fife Circle and run Glasgow - QM/Cowdenbeath/Glenrothes services
5. Wait until Fife circle electrified from Edinburgh and then electrify Alloa - Dunfermline and run services from Glasgow to preferred location on Fife Circle.

1 would be politically unacceptable.
2 would probably have a very poor business case because of not providing a direct Glasgow - Fife connection.
3 would be expensive but probably the best option.
4/5 are a long way off timewise so wouldn't fit as a quick fix for local economy from power station closing.

 

[me123]

Fife Circle is 2024(?) at present, so if there was a promise of a service from Glasgow I don't see why the wires couldn't be extended down to Dunfermline/Cowdenbeath/wherever in the interim. If indeed Longannet closes, the line is going to be extremely quiet which would allow the work to take place with minimal disruption. I suspect that at least some of the line needs upgrade work for passenger services anyway, so we're not looking at services starting in the next few months anyway.

 

[cb a1]

Is it just me that would find it deeply ironic if the SAK line had to be electrified in order to have passenger trains?

 

[Altnabreac]

Fife Circle is 2024(?) at present, so if there was a promise of a service from Glasgow I don't see why the wires couldn't be extended down to Dunfermline/Cowdenbeath/wherever in the interim. If indeed Longannet closes, the line is going to be extremely quiet which would allow the work to take place with minimal disruption. I suspect that at least some of the line needs upgrade work for passenger services anyway, so we're not looking at services starting in the next few months anyway.

True, my guess though would be that if electrified services would initially only run to Dunfermline Town or perhpas QM and then potentially be extended to Cowdenbeath or Glenrothese later once full Fife Circle electrification comes on stream.

Electrifying of these sort of lines is going to have an effect on the viability of reopening schemes if it forces reopening schemes to be electrified from the outset.

I always mention Altnabreac's 4 golden rules of a successful rail reopening:

1. Population of 10,000+
2. 60 minutes (75 at a push) journey time of a major employment centre.
3. Extant or mainly unobstructed trackbed
4. Ability to extend an existing service so more terminal capacity is not required.

Rule 4 means that new reopenings from electrified lines may need to be electrified from the outset.

If we look at the 12 most likely Scottish rail reopenings of the next 20 years:

Levenmouth
Extension of Fife Circle
Would need to be electrified if done after mid 2020s

Grangemouth
Extension of Glasgow - Falkirk Grahamston
Service electrified from 2018 but electrification includes Grangemouth

Dunfermline - Alloa
Extension of Glasgow - Alloa
Would need to be electrified if done after 2018

Penicuik
New service required
Could be diesel

Bridge of Weir
New service required
Almost certainly needs to be electrified to fit in busy Paisley - Glasgow corridor

Renfrew / Braehead
New service required
Almost certainly needs to be electrified to fit in busy Paisley - Glasgow corridor

Hawick
Extension of Edinburgh - Tweedbank service
Diesel for foreseeable future

Glasgow Airport
New service required
Almost certainly needs to be electrified to fit in busy Paisley - Glasgow corridor

Banchory
New service required
Could be diesel

Edinburgh South Suburban
New service required
Line probably electrified as diversion / freight route

Peterhead
New service required
Could be diesel

St Andrews
New service required
Would need to be electrified if done after mid 2020s

8 out of 12 probably need to be electrified (although 2 lines are being done anyway). This will make it more expensive and difficult to get reopening schemes off the ground in future.

Levenmouth especially would do well to try and get itself reopened prior to Fife electrification as the capital cost of electrifying would then come under the rolling electrification plan rather than a reopening expense.

 

[Class 170101]

Edinburgh South Suburban
New service required
Line probably electrified as diversion / freight route

Why not extend the Fife Circle services beyond Edinburgh to South Suburban stations?

Peterhead
New service required
Could be diesel.

Why not extend either the Glasgow to Aberdeen or Edinburgh to Aberdeen services here?

 

[najaB]

Peterhead
New service required
Could be diesel.

Why not extend either the Glasgow to Aberdeen or Edinburgh to Aberdeen services here?

At the very least this would require a couple of additional units as Aberdeen to Peterhead and back can't be done in the time that the units currently doing those services layover at Aberdeen.

 

[me123]

That means HSTs will be working up to Peterhead. I don't think there's likely to be enough of them to do that. And I doubt running a 5-car train (with one car of FC accommodation) along a new suburban line is the best use of resources, where a 158 would probably be perfectly adequate in the first instance.

You've also got the Aberdeen - Inverurie - Inverness services (soon to be 2tph to Inverurie and 1tph to Inverness). These services already have pretty limited capacity to turn back on Aberdeen platforms 6 and 7. Unless these was a new platform at Aberdeen (? reopen Platform 8), services running through to Peterhead could potentially be obstructed by trains awaiting their next run over to the Highlands.

 

[Altnabreac]

By new service I mean that additional capacity into the constrained big city station is required.

At through stations like Waverley and Aberdeen this can be done by extending other terminating services but this is at the risk of performance pollution and timetabling dificulties.

Borders Rail has been kept separate from Fife Circle for this reason.

I don't think Peterhead (or more likely Ellon) is very likely to reopen but if it did my bet would be on it running through to Banchory which almost certainly has a better business case so would have reopened first.

I also see little prospect for South Sub but the capacity shortage is more at the west side than the east side so through running to Fife wouldn't solve that problem.

 

[clc]

You could reduce the need for additional capacity at Central by making Bridge of Weir an extension of Paisley Canal. Also, would it not be possible to extend the Renfrew/Braehead line to the airport, thereby saving more precious paths?