General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[TheKnightWho]

No , I was talking about making things fairer. You seem to have this strange understanding of the word to include a concept of "fairer to someone" which is an oxymoron.

Perhaps you meant "favours someone" which isn't what I said.

I am aware that isn't what you said. I am implying that it's the consequence though.

Shocking. I might actually be disagreeing with you and calling you wrong. I'm not trying to tell you what you said.

 

[St Rollox]

Massive respect to David Cameron.
You got labour to take the flack in Scotland over the referendum and then sat back and watched them being wiped out.
You then used the SNP to frighten the life out of English voters.
So so simple.

 

[radamfi]

Labour almost exclusively win where the seat is totally or almost totally urbanised. At the moment, medium sized towns which aren't part of a conurbation typically have one seat covering the town itself with the surrounding countryside being a separate seat. That generally leads to one seat for Labour and another for the Conservatives.

The redrawing of seats benefits the Conservatives because more seats covering medium sized towns would have a greater amount of countryside in them. In the example above, the town will either have more countryside attached to it, or the town could be split into two with both halves having a lot of countryside attached.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Labour almost exclusively win where the seat is totally or almost totally urbanised. At the moment, medium sized towns which aren't part of a conurbation typically have one seat covering the town itself with the surrounding countryside being a separate seat. That generally leads to one seat for Labour and another for the Conservatives.

The redrawing of seats benefits the Conservatives because more seats covering medium sized towns would have a greater amount of countryside in them. In the example above, the town will either have more countryside attached to it, or the town could be split into two with both halves having a lot of countryside attached.

Fewer seats (650 vs. 600) supports this point, too.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Incidentally, what was the very best result that was gained by the Trades Union and Socialist Coalition in terms of votes cast in a constituency in the 2015 General Election and what was their percentage of the vote in that constituency?

 

[telstarbox]

It looks like 1,769 (3.9%) in Coventry North West.

 

[northwichcat]

Incidentally, what was the very best result that was gained by the Trades Union and Socialist Coalition in terms of votes cast in a constituency in the 2015 General Election and what was their percentage of the vote in that constituency?

Google News found the following:

The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) stood parliamentary candidates in seats across the country.

In some areas TUSC candidates received small but encouraging votes. The results were uneven.

TUSC chair Dave Nellist, standing in Coventry North West increased his share of the vote from 2010 to 3.9 percent. In Tottenham, North London, Jenny Sutton increased her share of the vote from 2.6 percent in 2010 to 3.1 percent.

http://www.socialistworker.co.uk/art/40493/TUSC+campaigners+vow+to+keep+fighting+against+austerity

I think if you click through Paul someone will be questioning Google Analytics stats saying someone from Prestbury visited the site.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Massive respect to David Cameron.
You got labour to take the flack in Scotland over the referendum and then sat back and watched them being wiped out.
You then used the SNP to frighten the life out of English voters.
So so simple.

He's an astute enough politician, although without all the media non-dom billionaires- Murdoch, Rothermere, Barclay and Lebedev- supporting him it wouldn't have been possible to play the game he's played. The Sun going in for the SNP in Scotland yet against the SNP in England helped him enormously. I wouldn't say it was The Sun wot won it, but when you have every single media oligarch in your corner it is a hell of a lot easier to get your message across.

He's got the Lib Dems to take the blame for the coalition failures- Clegg got attacked for the tuition fees, not the Tories. The Lib Dems have been wiped out purely because of the coalition, yet his share of the vote goes up.

He's got Labour to take the blame for the referendum. Labour have been wiped out in Scotland purely because of the no campaign.

It takes a certain amount of chutzpah to pull that one off. I almost have a grudging respect for him, something I didn't have in 2010 when he couldn't beat the most hated Prime Minister in living memory.

I work in higher education and my partner works in the NHS in mental health work. I'm absolutely dreading the next five years, they're going to be a disaster for my household.

 

[47802]

So Lefty trade unions you wanted a more left wing Labour Leader, so you got Ed. History shows when Labour move further left they loose, History shows when Labour have a Leader who isn't seen as having the stature to be Prime Minister they Loose, with Ed you got a bit of Both.

Labour lost the day they elected Ed Miliband, so congratulations to the Lefty Trade Unions for electing a Conservative Government

 

[Tetchytyke]

Err, wrong again, I think a problem does exist, and if you bothered to do some research, you'd soon see why!

The Conservatives perceive there to be a problem with the current constituencies, of course they do. I remain to be convinced by the argument that the boundaries "favour Labour". Yesterday's election proves the opposite.

The smallest mainland constituency- Arfon- is a Conservative seat and the largest two mainland constituencies- East Ham and Manchester Central- are both Labour.

I understand why the Tories can't resist gerrymandering- you don't throw away Shirley Porter's skills in a hurry- but lets not insult people's intelligence by claiming it is about "fairness" or "restoring balance". It is gerrymandering, pure and simple.

Boundary reform- even if it is needed, which I don't agree- is simply fiddling with the deckchairs anyway. The real issue is voting reform, and I don't see the Tories (or Labour, for that matter) addressing this any time soon; they know they will both lose out big time.

I seriously dislike UKIP, but it is nothing short of a national disgrace that a party with almost 3.5m votes gets one single seat in Parliament, when the SNP obtained that same result with 8,600 votes in Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

History shows when Labour move further left they loose

Labour have been annihilated in Scotland because they weren't left-wing enough.

You have more of a point with Miliband- he simply wasn't strong enough to deliver his message against the sustained assault from the tax avoiding media moguls Murdoch, Rothermere, Barclay and Lebedev. I think his brother would have been stronger, although (and probably because) David Miliband is one of the most unpleasant people I've ever had the misfortune to meet.

 

[northwichcat]

He's got the Lib Dems to take the blame for the coalition failures- Clegg got attacked for the tuition fees, not the Tories. The Lib Dems have been wiped out purely because of the coalition, yet his share of the vote goes up.

The Lib Dems proposed axing tuition fees in their manifesto.

The Tories wanted a huge increase in tuition fees.

The compromise they'd reached was to go ahead with the full increase making repayment terms more favourable. The latter bit gets forgotten.

Cameron said multiple times in the election campaign with regards to Income Tax "we raised the personal allowance to... and during the next parliament we will raise it to..." He didn't say "I didn't want to raise the personal allowance but Nick Clegg persuaded me to. I then realised that it actually fits in with our own idea of making sure no-one is better off on benefits than in work, so during the next parliament we will raise it to..."

 

[me123]

The UK government doesn't control the Scotland legislature which has its own parliament which in turn has its own elections. As of today, the General Election just held, the parliament for the whole of the UK has just been chosen. At the moment, the boundaries between the four parts of the UK are not relevant in terms of the total number of MPs and their voting power, (however much any of us here think that FPtP does not give results that are proportionally representative of the UK electorate's wishes).
If Cameron honours the additional devolution promises given before the referendum last year, that situation will change for certain types of UK legislation. At the moment, as far as the formal functioning of the UK parliament goes, a group of seats held by one party in Scotland has no more significance than a group held in the south-west (as the Liberals have traditionally done) or the industrial north (as Labour has with differing success for decades). At Westminster, they are just geographical clusters of seats, like the virtually all blue map of non-metropolitan England south of a line drawn between the Wash and the Severn estuary

Reserved matters at Westminster do continue to have effects on the Scottish legislature. Examples of what Westminster can do include:

• Mobilisation of troops to support a military advance
• Changing rates of taxation (although I hope lots of this will be devolved in the next few weeks/months).
• Decrease benefits for the most vulnerable in our society.
• Restrict immigration
• Construct fossil-fuel burning power stations
• Remove us from the European Union

All of this affects Scotland's constitution, and will be decided by a party with only 1 MP in this country and supported by just 14.9% of the electorate. They can, and have in the past, passed bills in these areas relating solely to Scotland. (They can also still pass bills relating to devolved issues, but it would be highly unlikely that any party in Westminster would do this).

 

[47802]

Labour have been annihilated in Scotland because they weren't left-wing enough.

You have more of a point with Miliband- he simply wasn't strong enough to deliver his message against the sustained assault from the tax avoiding media moguls Murdoch, Rothermere, Barclay and Lebechev. I think his brother would have been stronger, although (and probably because) David Miliband is one of the most unpleasant people I've ever had the misfortune to meet.

That's the perceived view with regard to Scotland but while there may be some truth in it I think that fact that Miliband wasn't perceived as strong candidate had some bearing on it.

Scotland is now a difficult situation, but if the SNP want another referendum, still 50% didn't vote for the SNP, and presumably some voted for the SNP who perhaps still don't want independence, although that may a case of be careful what you wish for.

The next Battle is the EU and those that believe in the EU really need to start and focus on the potential implications for Jobs and the economy. Will many Multi Nationals move their Manufacturing Industries, Service Industries, EU Headquarters etc. out of the UK. All we hear at the moment is the Immigration issue.

Today we celebrate VE day and the EU has its roots in wanting to prevent another War so maybe we should reflect on that.

 

[northwichcat]

Today we celebrate VE day and the EU has its roots in wanting to prevent another War so maybe we should reflect on that.

According to UKIP the EU will want to form a European Army.

 

[Senex]

Boundary reform- even if it is needed, which I don't agree- is simply fiddling with the deckchairs anyway. The real issue is voting reform, and I don't see the Tories (or Labour, for that matter) addressing this any time soon; they know they will both lose out big time.

I agree with you both on the need for voting reform and the unlikeliness of its happening as long as it seems so clearly against the interests of the two big parties. As to boundary reform, are you arguing that constituencies of greatly differing sizes can possibly be fair, even under the present clapped-out system?

On the subject of numbers of seats, we do seem to have a awful lot in comparison with a number of other "advanced" countries. (And if you look at the House of (so-called) Lords, it all gets utterly ridiculous ...)

 

[Tetchytyke]

That's the perceived view with regard to Scotland but while there may be some truth in it I think that fact that Miliband wasn't perceived as strong candidate had some bearing on it.

My friends in Glasgow tell me the SNP made huge ground in denouncing Labour as "Red Tories", and lost Glasgow as a result. The no campaign, fighting alongside the Tories, was a huge mistake. They got too close and have been wiped out as a result. I believe Lynton Crosby- who really is that cynical- intended for them to get tarnished during the campaign.

The next Battle is the EU and those that believe in the EU really need to start and focus on the potential implications for Jobs and the economy.

Now this is where Cameron's gamble there would be a coalition again backfires. I don't think he ever wanted a referendum but said yes, thinking he'd duck out of it through coalition negotiations. Now he's going to have to follow through with it.

I will be astounded if the electorate vote to remain in the EU.

And anyone who thinks we will be allowed to quietly leave the EU and carry on trading with them as normal is naive or deluded. They will still sell to us, of course they will, but they will not buy from us. There will be consequences of leaving the EU; there will be no Poles here anymore, but there'll be no jobs either.

Cameron has said he won't fight a third term. Expect him to stand down after the referendum, leaving the economic ruin for somebody else to tidy up.

 

[ExRes]

According to UKIP the EU will want to form a European Army.

There's no 'according to UKIP' about it, European President Jean-Claude Juncker made a well reported call for such an army earlier this year, a call which was dismissed by a number of key European states

There are a large number of google links to this should anyone believing this story to be a UKIP fairy story wish to visit them

 

[47802]

My friends in Glasgow tell me the SNP made huge ground in denouncing Labour as "Red Tories", and lost Glasgow as a result. The no campaign, fighting alongside the Tories, was a huge mistake. They got too close and have been wiped out as a result. I believe Lynton Crosby- who really is that cynical- intended for them to get tarnished during the campaign.



Now this is where Cameron's gamble there would be a coalition again backfires. I don't think he ever wanted a referendum but said yes, thinking he'd duck out of it through coalition negotiations. Now he's going to have to follow through with it.

I will be astounded if the electorate vote to remain in the EU.

And anyone who thinks we will be allowed to quietly leave the EU and carry on trading with them as normal is naive or deluded. They will still sell to us, of course they will, but they will not buy from us. There will be consequences of leaving the EU; there will be no Poles here anymore, but there'll be no jobs either.

Cameron has said he won't fight a third term. Expect him to stand down after the referendum, leaving the economic ruin for somebody else to tidy up.

I'm not sure there will be no Poles either quite a few I know have now got British Citizenship.

 

[radamfi]

Maybe the UK could become like Norway in status after the EU referendum. Cameron could claim that we have left the EU but we would still be part of the EU in all but name, and thus keeping freedom of movement and full trade links.

 

[Tetchytyke]

As to boundary reform, are you arguing that constituencies of greatly differing sizes can possibly be fair, even under the present clapped-out system?

There are extremes at either end. Na h-Eileanan an Iar having an electorate of 21,000 and the Isle of Wight having an electorate of 110,000 are both clearly absolutely ridiculous situations.

But most constituencies have a size of somewhere between 65,000 and 75,000; the average is 71,000. Labour constituencies tend to be marginally smaller- around 70,000 compared to the Tories' 71,500- but that isn't enough to really affect anything. And as I said, the two largest mainland constituencies are both Labour. Most of the biggest constituencies are in urban London, which is also predominantly Labour.

Constituency results have far more to do with demographics than they do population size. And that's really what the crux of the issue is. I firmly believe the "reform" is simply a way of grouping Conservative electoral wards together in constituencies and splitting up Labour electoral wards across constituencies. Gerrymandering, in other words.

There's an interesting blog from the LSE I found looking up the stats for this post: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/electoral-bias/

 

[47802]

Maybe the UK could become like Norway in status after the EU referendum. Cameron could claim that we have left the EU but we would still be part of the EU in all but name, and thus keeping freedom of movement and full trade links.

But of course Its the Freedom of movement which is the biggest problem for those against the EU

 

[Tetchytyke]

Maybe the UK could become like Norway in status after the EU referendum. Cameron could claim that we have left the EU but we would still be part of the EU in all but name, and thus keeping freedom of movement and full trade links.

And all of that would be dependent on the EU agreeing to let us keep all the benefits of EU membership without any of the obligations.

Can't see that one happening personally. We're not Norway. It isn't 1994.

 

[bb21]

It takes a certain amount of chutzpah to pull that one off. I almost have a grudging respect for him, something I didn't have in 2010 when he couldn't beat the most hated Prime Minister in living memory.

You call it chutzpah, I call it conniving ***** where the second word probably wouldn't be suitable on the forum. He totally shafted Clegg and failed to stick to his side of the bargain, while cunningly got the biggest Tory agenda item out of the way with LibDem help at the very beginning, creating losers in both the students and higher education institutions (which many people seem to be unaware of) both at the same time. (Higher education institutions actually got less funding per student overall with the fees going up to £9000 compared to when they were £3000.)

I work in higher education and my partner works in the NHS in mental health work. I'm absolutely dreading the next five years, they're going to be a disaster for my household.

Good luck I think is all I can say.

Labour lost the day they elected Ed Miliband, so congratulations to the Lefty Trade Unions for electing a Conservative Government

That I can probably agree with. He probably did try his best (not that I kept any close watch as the guy's voice drives me to sleep) but he never were the right person to start with and stood very little chance right from the start - wrong "image", wrong voice, wrong (or lack of) personality, etc. I remember saying to myself, "What the heck?" when he was elected, and that opinion has never changed.

Boundary reform- even if it is needed, which I don't agree- is simply fiddling with the deckchairs anyway. The real issue is voting reform, and I don't see the Tories (or Labour, for that matter) addressing this any time soon; they know they will both lose out big time.

There is the heart of the issue. Turkeys voting for Christmas coming to my mind. All this talk about boundary changes are attempts at diverting people's attention away from the real problem. They talk about "fairness" but refuse to acknowledge the biggest joke about the system. They talk about saving 10% of the MPs to save money, but don't really talk about how much it would cost in the first place to implement these comprehensive changes...

I seriously dislike UKIP, but it is nothing short of a national disgrace that a party with almost 3.5m votes gets one single seat in Parliament, when the SNP obtained that same result with 8,600 votes in Na h-Eileanan an Iar.

The only saving grace for me, is that had we had proportional representation this time round, we would likely have ended with a majority Tory-UKIP coalition, so thank goodness that weren't the case, but in the long run, PR has to be the way forward to ensure that every single vote counts. This should also then help boost turnout and instil public confidence in the system.

But of course Its the Freedom of movement which is the biggest problem for those against the EU

...whilst conveniently forgetting the benefits the UK get out of the Freedom of Movement.

And all of that would be dependent on the EU agreeing to let us keep all the benefits of EU membership without any of the obligations.

Can't see that one happening personally. We're not Norway. It isn't 1994.

Anyone like to bet on the EU making an example of the UK for daring to take the lead in causing such turmoil, not that I expect such a referendum to result in us leaving the EU?

 

[CC 72100]

The only saving grace for me, is that had we had proportional representation this time round, we would likely have ended with a majority Tory-UKIP coalition, so thank goodness that weren't the case, but in the long run, PR has to be the way forward to ensure that every single vote counts. This should also then help boost turnout and instil public confidence in the system.

I don't support the minor parties which lose the most from the system (the UKIPs and Greens of the world), but 3,881,129 votes = 1 MP (UKIP), 1,157,613 = 1 MP (Green), while 1,454,436 = 56 MPs (SNP) means that so many people's voice goes unheard.

I think this result firmly puts voting reform back on the agenda.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Higher education institutions actually got less funding per student overall with the fees going up to £9000 compared to when they were £3000.

One saving grace is that we're not going to get Labour cutting fees to £6000. I know many of my colleagues were worried about that, as naturally students would have chosen to defer and pay £6000 rather than join us immediately and pay £9000. The funding gap would have put many HEIs into serious debt, or even out of business entirely.

The Tories want higher education to be a marketplace. I think they understand the repercussions of this, in terms of cost as well as student standards, they just don't care. Weaker universities are already not choosy enough about the students they admit, shall we say, and with a marketplace you're just going to see more students being pushed into spending the thick end of forty grand on something they don't want, don't need, and won't help them in their careers.

The irony is the strongest universities- the likes of Oxford or Durham- make most of their money from research funding. They don't need to charge £9000 to make ends meet. They charge £9000 simply because they can. It's the weaker universities that have to charge £9000 simply to make ends meet, something that plenty of the weaker universities are already struggling to do (to a large extent due to their own mismanagement, to be fair).

That said, the vice chancellors can still give themselves 10% pay rises whilst telling us lot that there is "no money" and we'll have to settle for a 0.9% rise this year, making in ten years since we got a pay rise that matched- never mind exceeded- inflation.

 

[radamfi]

But of course Its the Freedom of movement which is the biggest problem for those against the EU

I think business would lean on Cameron to insist that freedom of movement is retained.

 

[47802]

I think business would lean on Cameron to insist that freedom of movement is retained.

Maybe but In that case there is little point in being out of the EU, and is the biggest issue for those that want out.

 

[TheKnightWho]

According to UKIP the EU will want to form a European Army.

Presumably that would be a good thing, as it would prevent Europe going to war with itself...

 

[radamfi]

Maybe but In that case there is little point in being out of the EU, and is the biggest issue for those that want out.

True, but I'm trying to come up with a way of leaving the EU that would allow Cameron to claim that he met the manifesto pledge.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I think business would lean on Cameron to insist that freedom of movement is retained.

Freedom of Movement (or "those Roomaniuns comin' 'ere, takin' our jobs") is the main problem most people have with the EU. Whilst I'd enjoy the irony of leaving the EU but still having open-door immigration, the only way to describe that would be "political suicide".

All of these conversations also depend on the EU being jolly good sports and letting us leave without a fight and without retribution.