Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[The Planner]

Just a study though isnt it, bung a consultancy a few grand to come up with something and then it gets put on a shelf. If all the studies ever came to fruition then I doubt there would be many disused lines left......

 

[swcovas]

Just a study though isnt it, bung a consultancy a few grand to come up with something and then it gets put on a shelf. If all the studies ever came to fruition then I doubt there would be many disused lines left......

This is so true. Example: In 2010 Jacobs Consultancy produced, at no little cost I am sure, a Heart of Wales Assessment WelTAG report. Then last year it was announced that the Heart of Wales Line Forum was to receive £150,000 "to undertake a further research into community rail development and potential alternative local management arrangements for rail services." The report will probably be virtually identical to what Jacobs produced 5 years ago! What IS the point?? Similar going on in Wisbech and, I think, Lewes-Uckfield. Consultancy companies must absolutely love these potential re-openings.

 

[pablo]

It used to be, if unsure, form a committee. Now it's, call for a report. Can't make a bas decision there!

Mind you, operational and functional reviews are a good idea, done occasionally. Otherwise peeps are prone to do the same old thing for fifty years and more, whether their service is required or not.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Just to let folk know its not gone dead by any means and no doubt the Borders opening in September will give encouragement to this and many more.

http://http://www.trawslinkcymru.org.uk/?p=623

TLC May update
Posted on May 14, 2015 by Hywel Rees

Traws Link Cymru members had a very positive meeting with Welsh Government civil servants in Cardiff on May 7th – election day of all days! Making the long trip were Mike Walker, Geraint Blayney, Nigel Bird, Flora McNerney and Gareth Walters. They met James Price, Director General of Science, Economy and Transport, his Deputy, Gareth Morgan and Simon Pickering, who is responsible for Transport and Franchising. This was a follow-up meeting to one that had been held in Lampeter in January between Traws Link Cymru and the Senedd (Welsh Assembly) Minister for Economy, Science and Transport, Mrs Edwina Hart.

At the meeting, which lasted an hour, Traws Link Cymru were able to put their case for re-openCardiff Meetinging the Aberystwyth to Carmarthen railway, based on an excellent set of documents which chair Adrian Kendon had compiled, and which Geraint had collated into a very professional-looking portfolio. The meeting was an opportunity for Traws Link Cymru to brief the Director General and his colleagues on the aims and success of the campaign to date and to press the case for a fully-funded Feasibility Study into the re-opening of the railway. The group’s presentation was warmly received and Traws Link Cymru were promised a response within the next few weeks.

Clearly this is a very positive development for the campaign, and a further step towards making the re-opening of the railway a reality – watch this space!

Other news: Pont Llanio station clearing has been going on steadily and the first group of visitors, from Aberaeron 41 Club,are due to visit the site on 11th May for a brief informal tour with Traws Link Cymru members.

In late June, date as yet not finalised, there will be a public meeting in Aberaeron to bring local people up to date with the campaign. There are also plans for further public meetings to be held in Lampeter, the Llandysul area and Machynlleth.

 

[sefyllian]

In a letter to Elin Jones AM, Edwina Hart has confirmed the Welsh government will provide £30,000 for an "initial scoping study" into reopening the line.

Short item in the Carmarthen Journal too.

 

[Greenback]

I could find a much better use for £30k than this!

 

[HarleyDavidson]

I could find a much better use for £30k than this!

You really could pay your bill at the den of inequity you know with that kind of money.

 

[Tumbleweed]

Good news - though I think this line if it is to be reinstated will be for political reasons not so much for economic reasons. Still, any chance of any line reopening is to be welcomed. Lets hope the line to Llantrisant/Beddau will also finally see the light of day soon then!

 

[ChiefPlanner]

This is so true. Example: In 2010 Jacobs Consultancy produced, at no little cost I am sure, a Heart of Wales Assessment WelTAG report. Then last year it was announced that the Heart of Wales Line Forum was to receive £150,000 "to undertake a further research into community rail development and potential alternative local management arrangements for rail services." The report will probably be virtually identical to what Jacobs produced 5 years ago! What IS the point?? Similar going on in Wisbech and, I think, Lewes-Uckfield. Consultancy companies must absolutely love these potential re-openings.

So how are the new HoW services doing ....?


PS - someone I know might have done some kitchen table planning for free - which resulted in some real changes ..

 

[JohnB57]

You really could pay your bill at the den of inequity you know with that kind of money.

Was that deliberate or have you accidentally coined a really useful phrase?

 

[The Planner]

Was going to say, £30K isn't going to get you much in the way of a consultants report, quite possibly telling you what you could easily find out yourself such as what bits are built on and what bridges are missing.

 

[steamybrian]

Was going to say, £30K isn't going to get you much in the way of a consultants report, quite possibly telling you what you could easily find out yourself such as what bits are built on and what bridges are missing.

I agree.
Compared to the £100k being budgeted for the latest study into Uckfield to Lewes reopening a distance of only about 7 miles.

 

[6Gman]

Good news - though I think this line if it is to be reinstated will be for political reasons not so much for economic reasons. Still, any chance of any line reopening is to be welcomed. Lets hope the line to Llantrisant/Beddau will also finally see the light of day soon then!

Have to disagree with that.

A reopening which is a disaster - "£300M to reopen railway, and now it only carries 20 passengers a day!" - will set back the prospects of worthwhile projects.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Have to disagree with that. A reopening which is a disaster - "£300M to reopen railway, and now it only carries 20 passengers a day!" - will set back the prospects of worthwhile projects.

Cold hard facts do indeed tend to speak for themselves.

 

[Tumbleweed]

Have to disagree with that.

A reopening which is a disaster - "£300M to reopen railway, and now it only carries 20 passengers a day!" - will set back the prospects of worthwhile projects.

Well, I was being hopeful

 

[Tobbes]

I expect report publication w/c 9 May 2016.

 

[Delta558]

Have to disagree with that.

A reopening which is a disaster - "£300M to reopen railway, and now it only carries 20 passengers a day!" - will set back the prospects of worthwhile projects.

Well the other comparable line in the area which has been 'reopened' of sorts, the Fishguard branch (regular services through the day and one re-opened station) is now seeing a passenger loading which is comparable to that seen on the Pembroke Dock branch 'next door', so to speak. It'll never match the summer loadings for Tenby (unless we have another volcano incident) but it is well used even if some of the timings could be better. That line only ever used to have boat passengers, so it's gone from zero to what could reasonably be expected from the line in a very short space of time. I'd suggest that your comment of '20 passengers a day' would swiftly be exceeded and the line would reach usage levels similar to other rural lines around the country. It might not pay for itself in the short term, perhaps not even until the very long term, but it would be providing a much-needed service to the local communities as well as jobs in the area and I really don't think that your suggestion it may affect other schemes is anything more than scaremongering.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It might not pay for itself in the short term, perhaps not even until the very long term, but it would be providing a much-needed service to the local communities as well as jobs in the area and I really don't think that your suggestion it may affect other schemes is anything more than scaremongering.

It is for those very same reasons of NOT paying for itself either in the short term or even to the long term, that such a project has to be measured in financial terms when compared with other projects competing for the same pot of finance.

 

[edwin_m]

The big difference with Fishguard is that the capital cost of restoring that service was about £0.5m for Goodwick station. Carmarthen to Aberystwyth would be in the hundreds of millions.

 

[Greenback]

Paul and Edwin have already replied effectively to the points raised by Delta558, but I'd like to add a little more of my own thoughts.

Firstly, I believe that if the line was still extant, there would be a real chance of restoring services, as ahs been the case with Aberdare, Maesteg and the more recent reopenings.

Ebbw Vale and Bridgend - Barry ahs required plenty of expenditure to upgrade, build new stations and so on, but the cost of those is going to pale into insignificance compared to Carmarthen - Aberystwyth. Even when open, the route was never fast, never busy and even with the greater population of today it doesn't really pass through any decent sized settlements except for the start and origin points and Lampeter. Not even these three places are going to generate enough traffic to justify any rebuilding, probably not even just reinstating the river bridge at Carmarthen!

I think sometimes we forget that railways like this one were constructed not for the transport of people, but for the transport of agricultural products out of an area, and other items, such as coal and manufactured goods, in. even then, many of them didn't make money.

Until there's a completely different method of assessing the benefits of railways then schemes like this will never get off the ground. That's why giving £30,000 towards a report is such a waste of money. Give half the money to me and I'll give the you exactly the same conclusion as the report will!

 

[Tumbleweed]

Paul and Edwin have already replied effectively to the points raised by Delta558, but I'd like to add a little more of my own thoughts.

Firstly, I believe that if the line was still extant, there would be a real chance of restoring services, as ahs been the case with Aberdare, Maesteg and the more recent reopenings.

Ebbw Vale and Bridgend - Barry ahs required plenty of expenditure to upgrade, build new stations and so on, but the cost of those is going to pale into insignificance compared to Carmarthen - Aberystwyth. Even when open, the route was never fast, never busy and even with the greater population of today it doesn't really pass through any decent sized settlements except for the start and origin points and Lampeter. Not even these three places are going to generate enough traffic to justify any rebuilding, probably not even just reinstating the river bridge at Carmarthen!

I think sometimes we forget that railways like this one were constructed not for the transport of people, but for the transport of agricultural products out of an area, and other items, such as coal and manufactured goods, in. even then, many of them didn't make money.

Until there's a completely different method of assessing the benefits of railways then schemes like this will never get off the ground. That's why giving £30,000 towards a report is such a waste of money. Give half the money to me and I'll give the you exactly the same conclusion as the report will!

You are correct, I suppose many people like myself romantically believe that any rail reopening is a good thing, but you're absolutely right if the sums don't add up then its a no-go.

The recent rail reopenings had the advantage of the track still being in use as freight or still had the track beds intact (obviously they have a sizeable populations around them as well).

 

[ChiefPlanner]

You are correct, I suppose many people like myself romantically believe that any rail reopening is a good thing, but you're absolutely right if the sums don't add up then its a no-go.

The recent rail reopenings had the advantage of the track still being in use as freight or still had the track beds intact (obviously they have a sizeable populations around them as well).

Which might make Llangefni and (a long shot) - the Amman Valley line contenders at some point - the latter serves a population of around 10,000 or so and it would add onto the (improved - from a low base) , HoW services at the sooth end of the route.

A more optimistic one might be Hirwaun (Pond) to Neath - though I thnk the upper end of the former line might be challenging.

 

[Greenback]

The recent rail reopenings had the advantage of the track still being in use as freight or still had the track beds intact (obviously they have a sizeable populations around them as well).

Exactly right on both counts. The money for this study would not have been given were it not for the elections next year. No doubt the Labour Party thinks it's worth it in terms of votes they may not lose by making this cash available. I disagree with them, and I feel it's another example of party politics coming first, rather than common sense being employed.

Which might make Llangefni and (a long shot) - the Amman Valley line contenders at some point - the latter serves a population of around 10,000 or so and it would add onto the (improved - from a low base) , HoW services at the sooth end of the route.

A more optimistic one might be Hirwaun (Pond) to Neath - though I thnk the upper end of the former line might be challenging.

In my humble and completely untrained opinion, all of these will have better chances of being a success than Carmarthen - Aberystwyth.

 

[Tumbleweed]

Exactly right on both counts. The money for this study would not have been given were it not for the elections next year. No doubt the Labour Party thinks it's worth it in terms of votes they may not lose by making this cash available. I disagree with them, and I feel it's another example of party politics coming first, rather than common sense being employed.



In my humble and completely untrained opinion, all of these will have better chances of being a success than Carmarthen - Aberystwyth.

Has the population in that area grown much since closure?
I know the government has been talking about Aberdare-Hirwaun, Beddau-Cardiff via Pontyclun or Creigiau, Bedlinog etc but I think these were kicked into the long grass, surely these would have more merit?

 

[edwin_m]

As well as the population on the route, another factor is whether there is a largeish place within a reasonable journey distance to act as a destination for commuters and shoppers - especially if roads are congested so it is difficult to get to by other modes of transport. Valley Line extensions benefit from the proximity of Cardiff. Amman Valley is just about close enough to Swansea, but Swansea is a lot smaller than Cardiff with a station that is poorly located for most of the city. Carmarthen-Aberystwyth is a lot further from any "big city" so any commuting trips would essentially be into the towns either end, neither of which has much commuter potential.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I wouldn't expect any further commitment from the Welsh Government this side of the next election for the Bay on anything transport wise. Whoever comes to power will have some serious thinking to do on the long long list of proposed schemes versus the funds available. M4 Relief road versus anything else?

 

[Greenback]

I know the government has been talking about Aberdare-Hirwaun, Beddau-Cardiff via Pontyclun or Creigiau, Bedlinog etc but I think these were kicked into the long grass, surely these would have more merit?

I do think that all of these schemes have more merit than Carmarthen - Aberystwyth. The rail enthusiast in me would love to see lines like these reopened, but it's a bit of a basket case. If it had never closed, it would be similar to the HoW in terms of service provision.

As well as the population on the route, another factor is whether there is a largeish place within a reasonable journey distance to act as a destination for commuters and shoppers - especially if roads are congested so it is difficult to get to by other modes of transport. Valley Line extensions benefit from the proximity of Cardiff. Amman Valley is just about close enough to Swansea, but Swansea is a lot smaller than Cardiff with a station that is poorly located for most of the city. Carmarthen-Aberystwyth is a lot further from any "big city" so any commuting trips would essentially be into the towns either end, neither of which has much commuter potential.

It's a rural area, and where there commuters who travel into Carmarthen or Aberystwyth, I feel it's likely that they would still drive rather than take a train, as they will probably live some distance away from any station they could use.

There will be some traffic, naturally, but in my view it will be insignificant.

I wouldn't expect any further commitment from the Welsh Government this side of the next election for the Bay on anything transport wise. Whoever comes to power will have some serious thinking to do on the long long list of proposed schemes versus the funds available. M4 Relief road versus anything else?

Agreed.

 

[Cardiffian]

I agree entirely with the cost/benefits analysis of the Carmarthen route. If the main aim is to regain the lost access for Aberystwyth back to the South Wales coastal railway, then it seems expensive and unfeasible in the short term.

The schemes mentioned to revitalise existing but unused or underused industrial railways on Anglesey and the Amman valley are much more worthwhile. Also the Pontyclun/Beddau/Creigiau route in Cardiff needs to happen as the city expands westwards.

An idea that I previously mentioned on this thread was that a southerly connection for Aberystwyth could be created by rebuilding the historic route that once linked the Heart of Wales Line and the Cambrian Line.

This ran from Builth Road to Moat Lane Junction (east of Caersws) and connected Rhayader, Llanidloes and Llandinam.

Although some of the trackbed is now used by the A470, a new route from (say) Llandrindod Wells via these towns to the Cambrian Line is much shorter than Carmarthen to Aber. Also it would create another rail link through mid-Wales and open the potential for running Aberystwyth to Swansea. The original route followed the course of the River Severn; this might have to take a different tack due to the A470.

Of course the line speeds along the HOWL would have to be raised, the track upgraded... etc etc. A pipe dream of course!

 

[Tobbes]

This is at heart either a lovely (if fanciful) dream, or it is a wholly political project with some broader (arguably nationalist with a small 'n') aims. I'd love to see Carmarthen - Aber rebuilt, but it isn't ever to provide a compelling business case.

*If* you were to build it, Lampeter (pop 4,000 including students) is the obvious first target from Carmarthen. It's not that big (unless the university grows significantly, of which there is no sign) but it's the only thing to aim for. Phase 1 to Lampeter, Phase 2 to Aber?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
This is at heart either a lovely (if fanciful) dream, or it is a wholly political project with some broader (arguably nationalist with a small 'n') aims. I'd love to see Carmarthen - Aber rebuilt, but it isn't ever to provide a compelling business case.

*If* you were to build it, Lampeter (pop 4,000 including students) is the obvious first target from Carmarthen. It's not that big (unless the university grows significantly, of which there is no sign) but it's the only thing to aim for. Phase 1 to Lampeter, Phase 2 to Aber?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Has there been any recent OFFICIAL statements made by the WAG on the matter of this thread, as I am sure some AM have had this matter put to them by members of this website couched in terms of strategic area planning for the west coastal regions of Cymru.