Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[Tobbes]

I heard last night that the Welsh LibDems have voted to reopen the Carmarthen to Lampeter and over Strata Florida to Aberystwth at their recent Conference. Normally, I'd be a be a bit dubious about this from the LDs, but it *was* the LDs who got BordersRail as a issue for coalition support, and something that was beyond my wildest dreams reopens in part next year.

So... ignoring moving Gwili and overcoming the Carmarthen ring road for a second (both seem to be questions of money and engineering), how difficult would this actually be? And how much use would it be?

 

[Greenback]

It certainly isn't going to happen any time soon. The difficulties in reopening even the southern section will mean that such a project will be very costly.

As for use, the line never had much of a passenger service, which indicates that there isn't much demand in the area in the past. I don't think there would be much usage between Lampeter and Carmarthen, to be honest. There isn't much in the way of population between the two places.

 

[6Gman]

I wonder if there's anyone else on here who has actually used that line?

(I was very young )

It ain't going to happen.

Huge construction issues - little demand.

 

[Gareth Marston]

There's a campaign group based out of Lampeter with a website and they have got Plaid n board as well. Some of their claims are dubious such as the population served is greater than the Cambrian main line or that bus usage between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth shows the market when it's lower than the Brecon to Newtown or Rhayader to Shrewsbury buses.

 

[Greenback]

I don't think that their claim about bus usage is accurate, I'm afraid.

 

[Tobbes]

Many thanks. Who knows!

 

[Bevan Price]

I wonder if there's anyone else on here who has actually used that line?

(I was very young )

It ain't going to happen.

Huge construction issues - little demand.

Yes. A few trips whilst on holiday in Aberystwyth in 1964. Three trains a day, each way. Manor Class loco on my trains (a diagram originating at Carmarthen was a Hymek). Not many passengers, usually had much of one coach to myself.

Intermediate population very low - excluding Camrathen & Aberystwyth, I doubt if there are more than 30,000 along the entire route. Chances of a good financial case for reopening - zilch - unless someone plants a massive new town somewhere on the route. Just political spin before an election.

 

[Starmill]

There might not be a huge flow of passengers wanting to travel from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth, true. But there might be a lot of people who would travel from Carmarthen and west wales to all of Aberystwyth, Machynlleth, Newtown, Welshpool and Shrewsbury. Might this be a quicker route from Swansea and Llanelli to Shrewsbury than either of the current routes? It certainly would be for journeys to Aberystwyth and Machynlleth! OK, this still might not be very many people. But it's value as a link is perhaps being underestimated a little, much like Porthmadog and Bangor, these places are all a bit strangely cut off.

 

[Parallel]

The line could well be more popular than we might think. Both Aberystwyth and Lampeter have universities, but if you ran services between Swansea and Aberystwyth via. Carmarthen & Lampeter then you have three. Providing decent connections would mean everyone in south Wales who travels to Aberystwyth a far better service, and everyone in the South or using the Great Western Main line would get (persumably) a quicker route and wouldn't need to travel though either Birmingham or on the Marches. Also, those in Aberystwyth and the surrounding areas needing more assistance medically are often advised to go to Swansea etc. Actual stations in between may not have high levels of traffic but nor does the Barnstaple line; more or less just end to end traffic.

I agree it'd cost a huge amount of money and would potentially cost more than it's worth, however.

 

[rf_ioliver]

I agree it'd cost a huge amount of money and would potentially cost more than it's worth, however.

Depends upon your accounting model...just get the right accountant

I could imagine a 1tp2h local Aber-Swansea and a 1tp2h Aber-Cardiff (avoiding Swansea), but as most poster have already stated, even though this would be Wales's Jewel in the Crown of reopening, the political will is not there, and that's before we even get onto the subject of the costs and benefits.

Though if you take into consideration the increase in property prices, boost to local economies, green credentials* and and reduction in road traffic then this would be an overall good investment IMHO.

*it always amuses me that saving the environment is something we have do to "at all costs" but the moment you actually try to do something then suddenly it has a "price"

t.

Ian

 

[Greenback]

There are some tough questions that have to be asked:

How many people travel from south Wales to Aberystwyth and vice versa?
Is this daily travel?
How much daily travel can be extracted from the population fo this rural area?
How big is the market for travel between south Wales and Newtown, Weslhpool or Machynlleth?

In my opinion, none of the answers to these questions give a great deal of help to those who look to reopen the line. Even with freight such as the milk traffic and rural commodities the route wasn't a moneyspinner in the heyday of the railways.

There are far greater priorities for pubic transport and funding in Wales than this project.

 

[PaulHarding150]

Just political spin before an election.

If its political spin it would be before the 2016 election not the 2015 election, but that's by the by.

The motion passed was a wider economic motion which included one line, added as an amendment, to look at the viability of reopening the line - so not quite what the opening poster said.

There has been a lot of talk about this lately, a Plaid AM held a 'short debate' (similar to a Westminster ten minute rule bill) in the Assembly a while back, the transcript is here: http://www.yoursenedd.com/debates/2014-03-12-short-debate-build-it-and-they-will-come

As mentioned, realistically this is going to cost millions, it would be lovely if it happened but I think it's unlikely.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I wonder if Plaid will play on the "to go between North and South Wales you have to go via England" thing.

 

[PaulHarding150]

I wonder if Plaid will play on the "to go between North and South Wales you have to go via England" thing.

One of they very silly arguments that not only Plaid are guilty of.

The latest line from Carwyn Jones when talking about Labour's record regarding rail in general is that back in 1999 there was barley no direct service from Cardiff to North Wales now it's almost hourly.

Wonderful. Meanwhile the North Wales economy still looks towards Liverpool where there is no direct service.

 

[Emyr]

Rail provision in North Wales is so far from useful, travelling by car is the default choice, hence Chester, Ellesmere Port and Liverpool.

 

[Greenback]

I wonder if Plaid will play on the "to go between North and South Wales you have to go via England" thing.

That is probably the strongest argument in favour of the reopening, as bizarre as it may seem!

Rail provision in North Wales is so far from useful, travelling by car is the default choice, hence Chester, Ellesmere Port and Liverpool.

Do you think that the expensive improvements to the A55 have contributed to this?

 

[Tobbes]

If its political spin it would be before the 2016 election not the 2015 election, but that's by the by.

The motion passed was a wider economic motion which included one line, added as an amendment, to look at the viability of reopening the line - so not quite what the opening poster said.

There has been a lot of talk about this lately, a Plaid AM held a 'short debate' (similar to a Westminster ten minute rule bill) in the Assembly a while back, the transcript is here: http://www.yoursenedd.com/debates/2014-03-12-short-debate-build-it-and-they-will-come

As mentioned, realistically this is going to cost millions, it would be lovely if it happened but I think it's unlikely.

Thanks for the clarification, Paul.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

That is probably the strongest argument in favour of the reopening, as bizarre as it may seem!

Does anyone have an idea of comparative travel time from Bangor - Cardiff via reinstated line Bangor-Afon Wen and Aber-Carmarthen versus Gerald's current timings? The Cambrian coast is very pretty, but I can't see it being very fast.

 

[Blamethrower]

If you factor in the place like Cardigan and Newcastle Emlyn (Perhaps even Aberaeron and New Quay) then the potential to use the line grows. Add in the previous mentioned University towns and through routes then I think it's a great idea.

I will never comment about cost as none of us truly knows what it would be, saying things like "we can't afford it" is moot.

Anything can be afforded, there is no either/or scenario, it's just that the accountants are in charge meaning that BCMs rule projects like this. Which is a shame because social aspects of re-opening such a prominent through route are huge.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Cue the imminent arrival of the "Let's reopen the Mid-Wales Railway" debate as supplementary to the line in question, which will conveniently forget the flooding that was not kind to that line.

 

[cle]

Is there any freight demand? It seems strategically that it could make sense - but that is just 'join the dots' - agree on the uni traffic though. Plus growth of Cardiff overall might cause more demand from outlying places.

With the curve at Aber, could it be useful to access the Cambrian line? Or even the Barmouth route too? I know it's mainly northerners who holiday in North Wales though.

Long term, some sort of connection onto the Conwy Valley line could be interesting.

 

[Greenback]

Does anyone have an idea of comparative travel time from Bangor - Cardiff via reinstated line Bangor-Afon Wen and Aber-Carmarthen versus Gerald's current timings? The Cambrian coast is very pretty, but I can't see it being very fast.

It isn't fast, and neither would a reopened line to Carmarthen be quick either. It may be quicker to get from some places in south and west Wales to north west wales, but how big is the market?

If you factor in the place like Cardigan and Newcastle Emlyn (Perhaps even Aberaeron and New Quay) then the potential to use the line grows. Add in the previous mentioned University towns and through routes then I think it's a great idea.

Sorry, but the population of the whole area including the aforementioned towns is still pretty small. And, with relatives in that particular area, I doubt they will be any more likely to drive to Newcastle Emlyn and pick up an infrequent train than they are to drive to Carmarthen and get a more frequent one.

Anything can be afforded, there is no either/or scenario, it's just that the accountants are in charge meaning that BCMs rule projects like this. Which is a shame because social aspects of re-opening such a prominent through route are huge.

I agree with you, but that's the way things are. I'd love to see some of the Beeching cuts, like this one, reversed, but realistically, we are a long, long way away from it in reality.

 

[tadhatter]

Do you think that the expensive improvements to the A55 have contributed to this?

Yes, of course the A55 improvement have contributed to this. In exactly the same way a new railway will attract new usage. Rail useage is growing hand over fist at present and now is the time to capitalise on that. It will also offer an alternative route to mid wales (albeit a long way round) when that bridge near Newtown collapses or floods again as it did in the mid 90s when I was at uni in Aberystwyth!

 

[Tobbes]

It isn't fast, and neither would a reopened line to Carmarthen be quick either. It may be quicker to get from some places in south and west Wales to north west wales, but how big is the market?

Sorry, but the population of the whole area including the aforementioned towns is still pretty small. And, with relatives in that particular area, I doubt they will be any more likely to drive to Newcastle Emlyn and pick up an infrequent train than they are to drive to Carmarthen and get a more frequent one.

It's clearly never going to make a return on the capital investment of reinstatement, but I suppose the question is could it cover it's operating costs? With ETCS and minimal station staff, the operating costs could be held down, I suppose.

And since CPOs would be required to get the trackbed back, you could always buy the trackbed to Newcastle Emlyn and offer that to Gwili as compensation!

 

[40907]

A friend of mine who works for the police in a specialised role and is based in Cardiff has to attend meetings in Bangor. He had been using an airline flight that went from Cardiff to RAF Valley on Anglesey, and said the main other users of this flight were Welsh Assembly people who I suspect have duties in either Caernarfon or Bangor.
Point is, I deduce from this activity that the main road up the coast to Aber maybe isn't too good, and as others have mentioned it is a long way round to go via the Welsh Marches line and down the North wales coast.
But whether a reinstated line would generate traffic en-route is a different matter. Otherwise, South Wales to Caernarfon and Bangor is presumably a "time" issue.

 

[Greenback]

Yes, of course the A55 improvement have contributed to this. In exactly the same way a new railway will attract new usage. Rail useage is growing hand over fist at present and now is the time to capitalise on that. It will also offer an alternative route to mid wales (albeit a long way round) when that bridge near Newtown collapses or floods again as it did in the mid 90s when I was at uni in Aberystwyth!

I agree that a reinstated line would attract new usage, but I don't think it will be anywhere near a level required to justify the huge expense that would be involved.

This is not comparable tot he Borders reopening in Scotland. Carmarthen isn't Edinburgh!

It's clearly never going to make a return on the capital investment of reinstatement, but I suppose the question is could it cover it's operating costs? With ETCS and minimal station staff, the operating costs could be held down, I suppose.

And since CPOs would be required to get the trackbed back, you could always buy the trackbed to Newcastle Emlyn and offer that to Gwili as compensation!

Dealing with the Gwili isn't the greatest problem! The biggest problem is that since hardly any line in wales covers its operating costs, there is now ay that any government of nay political hue is going to sanction this at the moment or in the short or medium term.

There is no way on earth that the reopened line will cover its costs, so quite apart from funding the track relaying, purchase of land and construction of stations, the government would be basically committing itself to increasing the money required to run the railway every year on top of that.

A friend of mine who works for the police in a specialised role and is based in Cardiff has to attend meetings in Bangor. He had been using an airline flight that went from Cardiff to RAF Valley on Anglesey, and said the main other users of this flight were Welsh Assembly people who I suspect have duties in either Caernarfon or Bangor.
Point is, I deduce from this activity that the main road up the coast to Aber maybe isn't too good, and as others have mentioned it is a long way round to go via the Welsh Marches line and down the North wales coast.
But whether a reinstated line would generate traffic en-route is a different matter. Otherwise, South Wales to Caernarfon and Bangor is presumably a "time" issue.

The point is that anyone driving from Cardiff to Bangor wouldn't go via Aberystwyth in any case.

Time wise, a traveller from Cardiff would have to go to Carmarthen ( say 2 hours) then up the reopened line to Aber (say 1.5 hours, then on to Machynlleth to connect with the Cambrian Coast line (say another 0.5 hours, then up to somewhere unspecified (maybe Afon Wen and another expensive reopened line to Caernarfon and Bangor (another 2 hours?) so at 6 hours to Bangor the route wouldn't even be that competitive time wise with going via Shrewsbury!

There's simply no justification for this reopening in the way these things are currently looked at. Other projects will have greater benefits and lesser costs attached to them. That's just the way it is, sorry.

 

[Chester1]

I agree that a reinstated line would attract new usage, but I don't think it will be anywhere near a level required to justify the huge expense that would be involved.

This is not comparable tot he Borders reopening in Scotland. Carmarthen isn't Edinburgh!



Dealing with the Gwili isn't the greatest problem! The biggest problem is that since hardly any line in wales covers its operating costs, there is now ay that any government of nay political hue is going to sanction this at the moment or in the short or medium term.

There is no way on earth that the reopened line will cover its costs, so quite apart from funding the track relaying, purchase of land and construction of stations, the government would be basically committing itself to increasing the money required to run the railway every year on top of that.



The point is that anyone driving from Cardiff to Bangor wouldn't go via Aberystwyth in any case.

Time wise, a traveller from Cardiff would have to go to Carmarthen ( say 2 hours) then up the reopened line to Aber (say 1.5 hours, then on to Machynlleth to connect with the Cambrian Coast line (say another 0.5 hours, then up to somewhere unspecified (maybe Afon Wen and another expensive reopened line to Caernarfon and Bangor (another 2 hours?) so at 6 hours to Bangor the route wouldn't even be that competitive time wise with going via Shrewsbury!

There's simply no justification for this reopening in the way these things are currently looked at. Other projects will have greater benefits and lesser costs attached to them. That's just the way it is, sorry.

The time could be significantly less than 6 hours if track speeds were better. Its nearly 2 hours from Cardiff to Carmathen but its only about 80-90 miles. At least 45 minutes could be cut just on this leg. Whole journey could be equal or faster than the current route.

Economically it will never make sense but politically it could. Wales needs proper north south rail and road links and an economy that is intergrated together rather than with parts of England if it ever has any hope of becoming independant (which I would hate to see happen). Two or three new towns between Carmarthem and Aber and reopening the line (plus Bangor-Afon Wen) would be a good move for Plaid Crymu in a future Welsh goverment coalition.

 

[6Gman]

If you factor in the place like Cardigan and Newcastle Emlyn (Perhaps even Aberaeron and New Quay) then the potential to use the line grows. Add in the previous mentioned University towns and through routes then I think it's a great idea.

How many of those places are on the route?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Is there any freight demand?

No.

It seems strategically that it could make sense - but that is just 'join the dots'


-No it doesn't.

agree on the uni traffic though.

Few dozen students each weekend.

Plus growth of Cardiff overall might cause more demand from outlying places.

Outlying is the word. Even Carmarthen is a long way from Cardiff!

With the curve at Aber, could it be useful to access the Cambrian line?

No.

Or even the Barmouth route too?

No.

I know it's mainly northerners who holiday in North Wales though.

Long term, some sort of connection onto the Conwy Valley line could be interesting.

Rebuild the Ffestiniog Railway to Standard Gauge?

Sorry, not being facetious - but this is mega, mega money for a pretty small number of people. Arriva tried to set up a commercial bus network in the area. And failed.

 

[Greenback]

The time could be significantly less than 6 hours if track speeds were better. Its nearly 2 hours from Cardiff to Carmathen but its only about 80-90 miles. At least 45 minutes could be cut just on this leg. Whole journey could be equal or faster than the current route.

Economically it will never make sense but politically it could. Wales needs proper north south rail and road links and an economy that is intergrated together rather than with parts of England if it ever has any hope of becoming independant (which I would hate to see happen). Two or three new towns between Carmarthem and Aber and reopening the line (plus Bangor-Afon Wen) would be a good move for Plaid Crymu in a future Welsh goverment coalition.

Politically it would be close to election suicide to spend the amount of money that is required to benefit such a small number of people.

We are talking about reconstructing two lines, and now improving others for higher speeds just so that we can have a competitive link between south and north Wales without entering England. I'm a nationalist, but even I find this idea beyond sense.

(If I did want to propose such a scheme it would be a more direct reopening such as the lines through to the Cambrian via Builth Road, and even that is a bit far fetched)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Sorry, not being facetious - but this is mega, mega money for a pretty small number of people. Arriva tried to set up a commercial bus network in the area. And failed.

Absolutely right.

 

[Bevan Price]

It isn't fast, and neither would a reopened line to Carmarthen be quick either. It may be quicker to get from some places in south and west Wales to north west wales, but how big is the market?

Some pre-closure quickest journey times.
Bangor - Caernarvon: 14 mins
Caernarvon - Afon Wen: 46 mins.**
Afon Wen - Dovey Jn: 1hr. 59 mins**
Dovey Jn - Aberystwyth: 33 mins **
Aberystwyth - Carmarthen: 2hr. 12 mins **

** - Some journeys might take 10 - 20 mins longer if they involved longish waits at passing loops, etc.

On the Afon Wen - Dovey Jn line, steam times were only marginally slower than current times for services operated by Class 158 dmus. Add a minimum 10 mins for reversals at Aberystwyth & Dovey Jn - plus another 10 mins if they reversed at Machynlleth (easier than trying this at Dovey Jn) and you get a Bangor - Carmarthen journey time of just over 6 hours. Add another 45 - 50 mins. for Carmarthen to Swansea, and you are approaching 7 hours.

In the current timetable, an 11:07 from Bangor reaches Swansea in 5 hours 8 mins. So - no contest - via Hereford & Chester is much quicker. Even allowing for track improvements on the coast route (if it still existed throughout), I doubt that you would get journey times much below 6 hours from Bangor to Swansea.

 

[Gareth Marston]

One of they very silly arguments that not only Plaid are guilty of.

The latest line from Carwyn Jones when talking about Labour's record regarding rail in general is that back in 1999 there was barley no direct service from Cardiff to North Wales now it's almost hourly.

Wonderful. Meanwhile the North Wales economy still looks towards Liverpool where there is no direct service.

I thought the A55 Expressway was the magic answer to economic development in N Wales! Ynys Mons GVA per head actually went down after it's completion so maybe not.