EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[ExRes]

It's not "Project Fear" when it comes back to bite as it already has. You're just burying your head in the sand.

I have yet to hear anyone say something resoundingly positive about leaving yet, because there isn't any.

I'm not burying my head at all, I happen to have been employed from 1971 until 2010 and I've seen recessions, inflation and deflation many times over, you either give up and hide or you fight through it as this country has done on each occasion. Do you really think that Germany will refuse to sell us their Audis, Mercedes and Volkswagens, the French their Peugeots and Renaults because we don't want to be in their club?, a club that many Germans and French don't want to be in either may I add

The money markets?, they're doing as they always do, making profits on anything and everything while they have the chance, as soon as they see profits in talking up the pound they'll be in there like a Jack Russell

If anyone didn't expect this to happen on the announcement of a leave result then they deserve a good kick

 

[TheKnightWho]

I'm not burying my head at all, I happen to have been employed from 1971 until 2010 and I've seen recessions, inflation and deflation many times over, you either give up and hide or you fight through it as this country has done on each occasion. Do you really think that Germany will refuse to sell us their Audis, Mercedes and Volkswagens, the French their Peugeots and Renaults because we don't want to be in their club?, a club that many Germans and French don't want to be in either may I add

The money markets?, they're doing as they always do, making profits on anything and everything while they have the chance, as soon as they see profits in talking up the pound they'll be in there like a Jack Russell

If anyone didn't expect this to happen on the announcement of a leave result then they deserve a good kick

You know, I think I'll trust the markets over your gut instinct. Currently the markets aren't quite as optimistic as you.

Saying "they'll still want to sell us stuff!!!!!" is wildly over-optimistic. I'm sure they'd love to sell a car each to every person in India, but that doesn't mean they've got the wealth to pay for them, regardless of how willing they are.

You might not have to worry about mortgages, job prospects or whether a third of your friends are going to be able to stay in the UK long-term, but not all of us are so lucky.

 

[Geezertronic]

You know, I think I'll trust the markets over your gut instinct. Currently the markets aren't quite as optimistic as you

The FTSE 100 is up on the week and 600 points better than when the EU Referendum was announced in February. Could have been worse but is not all the doom and gloom you seem to want

 

[TheKnightWho]

The FTSE 100 is up on the week and 600 points better than when the EU Referendum was announced in February. Could have been worse but is not all the doom and gloom you seem to want

I don't want it at all.

 

[jon0844]

There are people on the news and on social media who voted out and are now regretting it. Did these people think they were voting in a reality TV show? Did they think it was similar to voting someone out of the Big Brother house?

Loads on the net now. Here's a few more.

https://twitter.com/jmcomms/status/746388389646245889

 

[DarloRich]

I'm not burying my head at all, I happen to have been employed from 1971 until 2010 and I've seen recessions, inflation and deflation many times over, you either give up and hide or you fight through it as this country has done on each occasion. Do you really think that Germany will refuse to sell us their Audis, Mercedes and Volkswagens, the French their Peugeots and Renaults because we don't want to be in their club?, a club that many Germans and French don't want to be in either may I add

The money markets?, they're doing as they always do, making profits on anything and everything while they have the chance, as soon as they see profits in talking up the pound they'll be in there like a Jack Russell

If anyone didn't expect this to happen on the announcement of a leave result then they deserve a good kick

The markets don't like change and uncertainty. What will be interesting is how quickly they return to normal. However to pretend there is not worrying uncertainty is naive in the extreme. The markets and the economy are in flux after today. That puts us at risk of unpleasant changes to interest rates, employment prospects, financial security, economic performance etc.

To pretend it will certainly all be fine is silly. We don't know that.

 

[Geezertronic]

I don't want it at all.

Then take a look at the markets and even the Euro and Dollar rates are not as bad as they have been. Yes the Euro markets took a hit but they never expected a Leave vote so didn't prepare. At least Carney etc did and I hope Osbourne has been busy today as well. Next week will be important for the market and the economy.

 

[jon0844]

I seem to remember that there were plenty of Labour supporters saying it was alright when Brown took over from Blair

Because it is. We vote for individual MPs that form a Government, not what positions they will hold. PM is just a position, and someone else will be picked by the party to take that role.

Chances are it will be Boris, who I doubt will do anything too radical. He just said what he had to say to get into power, and it seems to have paid off perfectly.

The other thing 'we' can't do anything about is if, say, a councillor defects to another party. You voted for the person, not the party.

If we don't like it, I guess we could try and change it - but for whatever reason we haven't.

 

[anme]

So, you did it. You actually did it. I mean, as regular readers will know I don't rate the intelligence of the British people, but even I didn't really believe you would be this stupid. More fool me.

Anyway, two questions:
- What should Boris (or whoever) try to achieve in the leave negotiations? Would you like to see, for example, a Norway-style arrangement? If not that, then what? What compromises can be made, and what are the "red lines"?

- What would you say to immigrants in the UK from elsewhere in the EU tonight? And to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU?

 

[jon0844]

At the same time, not everyone wanted to leave outright. There also seem to be reports of people casting protest votes because they expected Remain to win, as well as quite a lot of people who have instantly regretted it now that they see that "Project Fear" was Project Reality...

Far too many it seems. But I can't see it prompting a new referendum, even though I am staggered that people voted leave to get at Cameron.

It wasn't a bloody general election! There was a time and the place for that, and this wasn't it. Sure, it did work but at what price? Boris as PM and in control of the Tories until 2020?
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If 28% of the actual electorate cannot be bothered to vote then 37% certainly does dictate the outcome

We can't know who the non-voters would have voted for. They have to be ignored. It's the same mistake people make when trying to make out that so few people voted for a party. NON VOTERS don't count and are irrelevant.

But it's always scary when people vote who didn't really understand what they were doing.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I am sure there are a few of those who voted "Leave" would not have had an inkling of what time period would actually take place before the desired effects that they voted for would actually come into force.

 

[jon0844]

I'm not burying my head at all, I happen to have been employed from 1971 until 2010 and I've seen recessions, inflation and deflation many times over, you either give up and hide or you fight through it as this country has done on each occasion. Do you really think that Germany will refuse to sell us their Audis, Mercedes and Volkswagens, the French their Peugeots and Renaults because we don't want to be in their club?, a club that many Germans and French don't want to be in either may I add

The money markets?, they're doing as they always do, making profits on anything and everything while they have the chance, as soon as they see profits in talking up the pound they'll be in there like a Jack Russell

If anyone didn't expect this to happen on the announcement of a leave result then they deserve a good kick

Depends how our currency does. Will we have to pay more for said Audi, Mercedes or Volkswagen? Will petrol prices go up? Will some electronic goods get more expensive?

Will people who voted leave start blaming the EU for the higher cost for things on their Spanish holiday next month?

 

[Senex]

You voted for the person, not the party.

Such is the theory, and it's the rock on which all the great admirers of the constituency MP/councillor/etc set-up base their arguments. But how many of us have the remotest clue of what the candidates presenting themselves to us are like, or indeed have ever met any of them?

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

In a democracy, it's very important that the electorate get to choose the prime minister, correct? (You might argue the head of state as well, but let's save that for another day)
How should I do this if I only think about the local candidate and party?

I'm not sure that's strictly correct...if one votes for the policies of that party, then any person leading it should be implementing those policies, surely? - perhaps with the odd tweak here and there....but I stand to be corrected.

 

[ExRes]

Because it is. We vote for individual MPs that form a Government, not what positions they will hold. PM is just a position, and someone else will be picked by the party to take that role.

Chances are it will be Boris, who I doubt will do anything too radical. He just said what he had to say to get into power, and it seems to have paid off perfectly.

The other thing 'we' can't do anything about is if, say, a councillor defects to another party. You voted for the person, not the party.

If we don't like it, I guess we could try and change it - but for whatever reason we haven't.

I refer you to my reply in post 543

 

[miami]

I'm not sure that's strictly correct...if one votes for the policies of that party, then any person leading it should be implementing those policies, surely? - perhaps with the odd tweak here and there....but I stand to be corrected.

Indeed, and Carswell and Reckless were both honourable in resigning when switching to ukip last parliament.

And I have nothing wrong per-se with the largest party in parliament choosing the PM, and him choosing the government.

What I do have a problem with is the hypocrisy of claiming this is democracy, and calling the commission "unelected bureaucrats", as the president of the commission is elected by the european parliament, the commissioners are appointed by national governments just like our pensions secretary is, and the whole lot is approved by the parliament.

Not that it matters as we genuinely will have an unelected (or at least not elected by us) parliament overseeing our laws after we join the EEA.

 

[Tim R-T-C]

I think there is a real anti-establishment trend, particularly on social media these days, spreading from the European left-wing and the American right-wing, meaning that any real experts on a topic (economists, political lecturers, business leaders) who give an opinion are viewed as biased and the opinions of well written but unsourced social media patrons are viewed as being The Truth™. Hence when the major party leaders said they supported 'Remain', it instantly turned off a lot of people.

I do think there was a lot of irony in the Leave campaign saying "Take Back Control", but at the same time that control would be in the hands of those people who wanted to leave that control with Brussels...

 

[krus_aragon]

Middle aged solvent English man

You are made out of glue...?

He's the Solvite Man!

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Interestingly, Plaid Cymru, who have done well recently in some of those areas, have always based their policies on placing Europe as very central core of their beliefs

Not always, but have for a long time. They were opposed to joining the common market at first, but soon came round to it.
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It'll settle down in the long term. By jove, short term uncertainty is a price worth paying for self-governance.

If you say that too loud, Scotland might hear, and go do the same thing.
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What he said was that he would go to the European Council next week to'explain the decision the British people have taken' and has said it should be up to the next prime minister to decide when to activate Article 50.

Ah, he has changed his position then... Not unsurprising

No, that's what he said in his speech at ~8:30 this morning. I don't think he'd made any pronouncements before then.

 

[jon0844]

I think there is a real anti-establishment trend, particularly on social media these days, spreading from the European left-wing and the American right-wing, meaning that any real experts on a topic (economists, political lecturers, business leaders) who give an opinion are viewed as biased and the opinions of well written but unsourced social media patrons are viewed as being The Truth™. Hence when the major party leaders said they supported 'Remain', it instantly turned off a lot of people.

I do think there was a lot of irony in the Leave campaign saying "Take Back Control", but at the same time that control would be in the hands of those people who wanted to leave that control with Brussels...

Just as it's more likely a celebrity will be able to tell his/her million plus followers how to vote - and succeed. Because they 'tell it like it is'.

We've definitely lost our way by allowing ourselves to think ALL people in politics are corrupt, and that everyone high up in business is corrupt, and that everyone who works for a bank is corrupt... It's laughable that people actually said in this campaign that it was time to stop listening to experts...

But, nevertheless, I had to tweet earlier that democracy did win the day...

https://twitter.com/jmcomms/status/746415229668450306

 

[krus_aragon]

Anyway, two questions:
- What should Boris (or whoever) try to achieve in the leave negotiations? Would you like to see, for example, a Norway-style arrangement? If not that, then what? What compromises can be made, and what are the "red lines"?

As many people made immigration a big part of the campaign, I can't see the Leave Negotiators settling for full free movement. Can a compromise (the legendary "cap") be reached? I don't know. I do, however, feel that full leave to remain for all UK citizens currently resident elsewhere in the EU, and for all non-UK EU citizens currently here, is an absolute necessity. Restrict new arrivals, but don't send back those that are here/there already.

Everything else (staying within the EEA, for example) depends on what can be done on this issue. As for everything else, there's so much to be sorted out, I can't even begin to address it this evening.

- What would you say to immigrants in the UK from elsewhere in the EU tonight? And to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU?

After Cameron's renegotiation, I felt angry and disappointed. I thought he'd gone to seek reform of the EU, and he came back with a handful of UK-oriented opt-outs. I felt it was a selfish approach, and was quite ready to apologise to any and all citizens of the other 27 EU states.

But now? I don't know what I'd say to anyone living here on an EU passport. I've no idea.

 

[Groningen]

You have to love the Pound Sterling; still worth the same in the UK.

 

[Johnuk123]

Izzard and Geldof are to blame, between them they probably lost a million votes.

 

[Railops]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/683188/European-Union-bigger-more-controls-German-MEP-EU-expansion

EUROPE appears to have learnt nothing from Brexit, with two of the EU’s leading figures calling for even GREATER expansion of the EU and more control over its member states.German MEP Elmar Brok, chairman of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs, denigrated the democratic decision of the British people to leave.

He said: "Unfortunately it seems that a mood shaped by lies and slander has won over factual arguments.”

In an interview with Berliner Zeitung, he called for even greater powers for the EU. He said: “We have to reform the Union and deepen it.”

Mr Brok also demanded "closer cooperation" between member states.

He said: “Europe isn't the problem. Citizens don't complain about the EU regulating too much…we have to strengthen the EU the way it exists today.”

This is the EU in a nutshell, come across a problem and the answer is more EU.

 

[Dave1987]

I'm quite angry at the EU politicians. I don't think any of them ever truly believed the UK would vote for Brexit so Cameron came away with some piecemeal guarantees during the negotiations which just fuelled the likes of Farage. I think only now do they realise that the UK is serious about being fed up with the EU and this "ever closer union" nonsense. They benefit from the UK being part of the EU just as much as we benefit from being in the EU. But certain countries who have a net gain from the EU (i.e get out more than they pay in) just weren't willing for the UK to get a better deal than they were. Poland was trying to make sure Britain could not reduce the child benefits their citizens claimed in the UK but then sent back to Poland which amounted to a pretty substantial income in Poland. Well they really won't like it now the UK has voted for Brexit! As much as I wanted us to Remain I believe it's only now that the EU members will take stuff like this seriously.

 

[anme]

As many people made immigration a big part of the campaign, I can't see the Leave Negotiators settling for full free movement. Can a compromise (the legendary "cap") be reached? I don't know. I do, however, feel that full leave to remain for all UK citizens currently resident elsewhere in the EU, and for all non-UK EU citizens currently here, is an absolute necessity. Restrict new arrivals, but don't send back those that are here/there already.

Everything else (staying within the EEA, for example) depends on what can be done on this issue. As for everything else, there's so much to be sorted out, I can't even begin to address it this evening.

Good points. If the economy takes a turn for the worse in the coming months, EEA membership may be seen as worth any compromise. And let's be clear, if it's allowed at all it will be a Norway-style arrangement - i.e. you accept the full free movement of people, goods, services and capital, with the UK losing the opt outs it has, e.g. to protect the city of London, and you have no say in the running of the single market (in the commission, the parliament, etc). It's not a good arrangement by any rational judgement, but it's better than your isolation which is the only alternative. It actually proves popular with the public in Norway because a) the country is very rich, with good distribution of wealth, so no-one has too much to worry about; and b) very few people actually have any idea how even the basics of government work.

The loss of freedom of movement would be a real tragedy for the British people, too many of whom were not bright enough to see that it was not a threat, but an amazing right and privilege.

 

[bussnapperwm]

How about 50% of the total eligible voters going for change in order to enact changes?

Just like what the government wanted to do with the unions?

A bit of consistency wouldn't hurt.

Well said that man

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

An interesting point has been raised after the result was announced about how much EU money is sent to the Welsh Valleys on account of their peripheral poorness to the EU yet the percentage of those voting "Leave" in the Welsh Valleys was quite high.

Now that source of EU money will now eventually come to an end, will the WAG expect the Treasury to make up that particular shortfall?

 

[DarloRich]

the rowing back is happening in earnest:

Some Tory type on the radio representing leave: We didn't promise to spend on health, we didn't promise that the economy wouldn't suffer and perhaps most tellingly: We didn't promise to reduce the numbers of immigrants!

Farage on GMB ( GMB for gods sake!) : https://twitter.com/GMB/status/746218028195426305

 

[dgl]

An interesting point has been raised after the result was announced about how much EU money is sent to the Welsh Valleys on account of their peripheral poorness to the EU yet the percentage of those voting "Leave" in the Welsh Valleys was quite high.





Now that source of EU money will now eventually come to an end, will the WAG expect the Treasury to make up that particular shortfall?

There will be a phone call from the EU to Wales where they will claim all the money they were given was actually a loan and that they want all their money back

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You have to love the Pound Sterling; still worth the same in the UK.

I am not sure if a certain saying by a British Prime Minister is known in your country but on 19th November 1967, Harold Wilson in a television appearance about sterling devaluation said....

"It does not mean that the pound in Britain, in your pocket or your purse or in a bank has been devalued."