And of course First tickets are accepted on the 349.
Here's a bit of a take on the 51. Discuss
1. Is it because First bus are losing money on the 51?
Well no-one on this forum knows the reality or not of that statement. Only First and James Freeman know the truth but a couple of things to consider. If they were making a tidy sum, why would they withdraw it? Or do we actually think that JF (who is a well-respected individual) is actually lying? There are other things that could’ve been said rather than that?
2. How can it be losing money when there are full buses at peak?
Well, fair point and we’ve all seen these in peak. However, anecdotally, an off peak trip from the BroadWalk to Hengrove usually has the odd farepayer and a number of free passes. That means you’re probably running at a loss during the day (a bus usually needs to take £30-35 per hour on average) so even the peak may not be outweighing that.
Now it does beg the question as to whether the 2 and 376 will be swamped at peak. Clearly, First believe that there is sufficient capacity to cope with that element of traffic from the city centre to BroadWalk from the 51. Well, that is the great imponderable and we just don’t know. First, of course, have the information and data and today’s ticket machines now provide a greater wealth of management and passenger information than we’ve ever seen in the past. Whether that is robust, or fundamentally flawed, none of us know at the moment. We can only hope that First have got their sums right.
3. It’s to create capacity to take on the P&R
Well, it certainly does help in enabling a further dozen vehicles into Hengrove, but is that really such an issue? Surely parking space could be obtained? It could also be about drivers but those currently employed by CT Plus have the right under TUPE to transfer across on the same terms.
4. Is it about a shortage of drivers?
Well, that is definitely a problem and may well be a factor. First have been struggling, resorting to bringing drivers in from other depots and OpCos as well as a number of agency drivers. This adds to the cost of operation directly (driver wages plus agency fee) and indirectly (as agency staff typically have higher levels of accidents and MPG)
5. Is it because the route has been systematically destroyed by years of poor service and high fares?
That may be an issue certainly. However, in recent years, First have sought to redress this by increasing frequencies and lowering fares. This has benefitted many of the other city services but clearly not this one. Why?
6. Is there something in the demographics of the area?
Perhaps this is a major point. Some interesting issues highlighted in this study of the main ward -
https://www.bristol.gov.uk/document...Park.pdf/24bc4b46-509b-4db8-88a2-34efda4de0e4
Look at the population pyramid and you see that the Hengrove and Whitchurch population is weighted much more to older people. That means ENCTS is likely a higher proportion. This is backed up with few areas of deprivation (and consequently above average life expectancy) and high levels of social care. Also, people are better off; more people own their own homes than the city average (by some distance) and the number of households without a car is well below the city average. Those with one car are average but more than one is considerably higher than the city average.
It could be argued that the poor service in the past has forced people to buy cars. However, that is rarely borne out by research.
7. Should JF/First have expected this backlash?
Yes, and to be honest, they’ve not really handled it as well as they could’ve.
8. What can be done next by First?
Well, they could back down but somehow don’t see that happening and reinstating the 51. They could put a vehicle into the 36 and extend it to Fortfield Road and Wharnecliffe Gardens to link with the SBH and Hengrove Park and it would provide a circuitous route to BroadWalk (but Walsh Avenue would still be unserved).
9. What about another operator?
Well, my point before with the 20, 52 and 57 is that the same lines were trotted out before. We could see Wessex or Abus come in but on what terms? Also remembering that the 50 will mop up most of the city bound traffic so it’s about the Whitchurch to BroadWalk bit and how lucrative that is? Wessex could come in and compete on the Wells Road but then again, do that and you may as well compete over the 2. That might be regarded as wasteful competition but that market is probably more reliable?
Of course, we have the curate’s egg that is CityFox. The attendance at protests and Twitter led pronouncements were seen when the 20 got pulled and came to nought, and we’ve seen the same here. Mr Hand has on one hand denounced First (3rd Aug) and stated it’s a ploy to get the council to “pay up”, whilst then stating that they are discussing options with various councillors (13th Aug). It’s an open market – they could just run commercially unless….they want the council to pay up, just to them not to First. Perhaps Phil Stockley, who I do rate and respect, could perhaps convince Rhys to stop tweeting and undertake things in a more professional manner?
10. What next?
My personal gut feel? The BCC will rummage down behind the sofa and some money will be found for some sort of replacement. At best, it might be some hourly service with one bus dedicated and another wrapped around existing schools requirements, similar to Abus’ 57.
Just my thoughts on the subject