Porterbrook Cl.769 'Flex' trains from 319s, initially for Northern

[507021]

Replying to 47802:

I wasn’t trying to imply train operators should replace their respective Class 150 fleets with converted 455s or 769s, but rather have them in addition to the 150s to work alongside them to boost capacity. On the contrary, I expect a large diesel order for the Northern and Wales and Borders franchises upon their next renewals, with a smaller one for the Great Western franchise to see off their 150s.

However, I strongly believe converted units like "455 DEMUs" and the 769s also offer something to business cases for the re-opening of branch lines, which will almost certainly not justify brand new trains from day one. Why write off a project like the 230 or 769 when they could potentially be what helps re-open a vital rail link? Mid-life trains don't grow on trees.

I’m sorry, but I don’t buy the Class 455s weren’t designed to be DEMUs argument at all. The Class 319 was not designed to be a bi-mode and the D78 Stock was not designed to be mainline stock. This is a time where innovative rolling stock solutions are needed, and the Class 230 and Class 769 are just that.

The Class 230's market is much more limited, because it has a lower top speed and is a smaller train, hence it is only really suitable for branch lines. However, the 319s/769s have more capacity and a much better top speed, so their market is lot larger. Considering they haven’t even been tested yet, I think two orders for a total of sixteen units is good going.

Even after the 2020 PRM deadline, a lot of franchises will still have rolling stock shortages and I can’t see Northern being allowed to order more new trains until the next franchise beyond the potential for eighteen more 195/0s, and even then, they will most likely be Turbostars anyway. Taking on more 769s might well be the only option for Northern and/or the Wales and Borders franchise if demand continues to grow, so I wouldn’t be so quick to write the 769s off as soon as 2020 arrives. They’ll be around for a while yet.

 

[47802]

Replying to 47802:

I wasn’t trying to imply train operators should replace their respective Class 150 fleets with converted 455s or 769s, but rather have them in addition to the 150s to work alongside them to boost capacity. On the contrary, I expect a large diesel order for the Northern and Wales and Borders franchises upon their next renewals, with a smaller one for the Great Western franchise to see off their 150s.

However, I strongly believe converted units like "455 DEMUs" and the 769s also offer something to business cases for the re-opening of branch lines, which will almost certainly not justify brand new trains from day one. Why write off a project like the 230 or 769 when they could potentially be what helps re-open a vital rail link? Mid-life trains don't grow on trees.

I’m sorry, but I don’t buy the Class 455s weren’t designed to be DEMUs argument at all. The Class 319 was not designed to be a bi-mode and the D78 Stock was not designed to be mainline stock. This is a time where innovative rolling stock solutions are needed, and the Class 230 and Class 769 are just that.

The Class 230's market is much more limited, because it has a lower top speed and is a smaller train, hence it is only really suitable for branch lines. However, the 319s/769s have more capacity and a much better top speed, so their market is lot larger. Considering they haven’t even been tested yet, I think two orders for a total of sixteen units is good going.

Even after the 2020 PRM deadline, a lot of franchises will still have rolling stock shortages and I can’t see Northern being allowed to order more new trains until the next franchise beyond the potential for eighteen more 195/0s, and even then, they will most likely be Turbostars anyway. Taking on more 769s might well be the only option for Northern and/or the Wales and Borders franchise if demand continues to grow, so I wouldn’t be so quick to write the 769s off as soon as 2020 arrives. They’ll be around for a while yet.

I can see 2 franchises that might make use of 769's with regard to 2020 compliance, those being Wales and EMT. Wales might choose more over and above the 4 they are already getting as intrim solution depending what exactly is going to happen with the Cardiff Valleys, while EMT need to address what they are going to do with the 153 fleet. Although to stand any chance of getting these trains in time I would think they will have to order them now if not sooner and hope they work as Porterbrook say.

How many new lines are likely to open within a reasonable timeframe that these trains might be made say the next 5 years, well I expect the answer to that is very few if any while I suspect that even the increasingly cut price East West Rail Link will want better trains than these.

People keep saying that Northern will have to order more trains that what they getting is not enough and even the option to get more trains that is built into the franchise is still not enough, well I think we will see on that one especially as it would need the DFT to agree to that, and there seem to be some signs to suggest that growth in Rail Travel is starting to drop off, some it might be due to the strikes but we shall see.

 

[northwichcat]

while EMT need to address what they are going to do with the 153 fleet.

14 x 156s off-lease by 2019 with no future home would seem like a good solution to that problem. I'm not sure 4 car commuter trains are really what EMT needs.

 

[Domh245]

I'm not sure 4 car commuter trains are really what EMT needs.

No, but it needs something, and if that is all that is available quickly...

 

[YorkshireBear]

14 x 156s off-lease by 2019 with no future home would seem like a good solution to that problem. I'm not sure 4 car commuter trains are really what EMT needs.

I am almost certain these will end up with EMT as the logic is there.

It doesn't need lots of 4 car commuter trains but as time goes on it will probably start to need more 4 car trains overall in the peaks.

 

[507021]

I can see 2 franchises that might make use of 769's with regard to 2020 compliance, those being Wales and EMT. Wales might choose more over and above the 4 they are already getting as intrim solution depending what exactly is going to happen with the Cardiff Valleys, while EMT need to address what they are going to do with the 153 fleet. Although to stand any chance of getting these trains in time I would think they will have to order them now if not sooner.

How many new lines are likely to open within a reasonable timeframe that these trains might be made say the next 5 years, well I expect the answer to that is very few if any while I suspect that even the increasingly cut price East West Rail Link will want better trains than these.

The Class 769s aren't just about the 2020 PRM compliance deadline, because if that's what they were intended for, why would Porterbrook bother going to the expense converting them for a maximum of five years of service? They will offer a decent solution to the recently cancelled electrification project, which have had an effect Northern's initial rolling stock plans.

Porterbrook aren't going to be scrapping their off-lease 319s any time soon either. If local authorities see it's a concept that works once they have entered service, then it's entirely possible (but not a certainty) they could look to the 769 as an option for any cases they may want to put forward to re-open a line. Yes re-opening a line takes time, but it's a solution that would be ready to go when a line has been reinstated, and not dependent on other TOCs releasing DMUs in time.

I could be entirely wrong on the above, but I think it's far too early to dismiss the prospect of further Class 769 orders before they've even turned a wheel in service.

 

[47802]

14 x 156s off-lease by 2019 with no future home would seem like a good solution to that problem. I'm not sure 4 car commuter trains are really what EMT needs.

Probably not but those depend on things like the Stadler Gizzmo's entering service on time.

 

[northwichcat]

They will offer a decent solution to the recently cancelled electrification projects, which have had an effect Northern's initial rolling stock plans.

Other than Windermere (where 769s can't be used long term because of not meeting the Northern Connect standard), what electrification projects in the North have been cancelled? I'm under the impression Wigan-Bolton and Manchester-Stalybridge have been delayed, while if Grayling's idea for discontinuous electrification on North TPE goes ahead it won't make much difference to Northern given the Manchester-Huddersfield and Huddersfield-Leeds stoppers are being replaced by semi-fasts operated by TPE.

 

[507021]

Other than Windermere (where 769s can't be used long term because of not meeting the Northern Connect standard), what electrification projects in the North have been cancelled? I'm under the impression Wigan-Bolton and Manchester-Stalybridge have been delayed, while if Grayling's idea for discontinuous electrification on North TPE goes ahead it won't make much difference to Northern given the Manchester-Huddersfield and Huddersfield-Leeds stoppers are being replaced by semi-fasts operated by TPE.

That was the one I was referring to, in Northern's case anyway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Other than Windermere (where 769s can't be used long term because of not meeting the Northern Connect standard)

The standard can be met through refurbishment, can it not?

 

[samuelmorris]

I don't think the 769s were to be fitted with A/C, and I think that's one of the requirements of Northern Connect.

 

[Mathew S]

I don't think the 769s were to be fitted with A/C, and I think that's one of the requirements of Northern Connect.

It is, they aren't.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Doesn't mean they can't be, nor does it mean that the requirement cannot be relaxed in light of changing circumstances which are not Northern's fault.

 

[northwichcat]

The standard can be met through refurbishment, can it not?

Doesn't mean they can't be, nor does it mean that the requirement cannot be relaxed in light of changing circumstances which are not Northern's fault.

The official DfT announcement confirmed 769s will be used as an interim measure on Windermere services until December 2019 when 195s will take over, with the option of DfT funding a trial of an alternative fueled train an option on the table.

 

[47802]

Doesn't mean they can't be, nor does it mean that the requirement cannot be relaxed in light of changing circumstances which are not Northern's fault.

Well possibly it could, but its already been indicated that it will go to 195's when available, although 195's are not forced to work all trains on the branch anyway, and supposedly some alternate fuel tech train whatever that is, anybody for the GWR steam railmotor

 

[northwichcat]

I don't think the 769s were to be fitted with A/C, and I think that's one of the requirements of Northern Connect.

It's rumoured Porterbrook ruled out a/c for the 319s as it would affect the train's performance too much so if that's true the chance of it happening on a 769 is very slim.

 

[northwichcat]

Well possibly it could, but its already been indicated that it will go to 195's when available, although 195's are forced to work all trains on the branch anyway, and supposedly some alternate fuel tech train whatever that is, anybody for the GWR steam railmotor

I imagine it'll end up being a few 331s converted to IPEMU with DfT funding the extra work involved.

 

[Viscount702]

Traction & Rolling Stock

I imagine it'll end up being a few 331s converted to IPEMU with DfT funding the extra work involved.

In the long run it would be cheaper to
put the wires up

 

[edwin_m]

I have to be pessimistic about the chances of 455s being converted to DMUs, simply because new build DMUs now appear to be available at reasonable cost from CAF. Converting a 319 creates a bi-mode, the only alternatives currently available being from Hitachi (optimised for intercity duties and unsuitable for other roles) and Stadler (a regional train but door size/spacing and the length taken up by the power packs may make them unsuitable for busy commuter routes). So the 769 has its own niche in the market. A diesel 455 would be an old train with no aircon, relatively poor performance, and a lease rental set to recover conversion costs within perhaps no more than five years of remaining life. It would have to compete for lease money against new units with aircon, better acceleration and 100mph capability.

 

[tbtc]

Traction & Rolling Stock


In the long run it would be cheaper to
put the wires up

Ideally, but given Network Rail delays, I'm not convinced any Government will trust them with another big electrification project any time soon.

I was a big fan of electrification but ... things became complicated.

I have to be pessimistic about the chances of 455s being converted to DMUs, simply because new build DMUs now appear to be available at reasonable cost from CAF. Converting a 319 creates a bi-mode, the only alternatives currently available being from Hitachi (optimised for intercity duties and unsuitable for other roles) and Stadler (a regional train but door size/spacing and the length taken up by the power packs may make them unsuitable for busy commuter routes). So the 769 has its own niche in the market. A diesel 455 would be an old train with no aircon, relatively poor performance, and a lease rental set to recover conversion costs within perhaps no more than five years of remaining life. It would have to compete for lease money against new units with aircon, better acceleration and 100mph capability.

Good points.

Given the failure to electrify, I'd settle for using the surplus of 1980s EMUs to create bi-mode "Provincial" trains as a "Plan B" - we need to do something and we will have plenty of redundant EMUs (once the Greater Anglia/ SWR orders are built).

Before electrification became "too hard", I was a supporter of 230s as a temporary measure (to get us through the accessibility deadline and keep lines going until the "main line" electrification like MML/TPE was followed up by "branch line" electrification as the obvious next step).

Now though, my priority would be to have one big fleet of bi-modes created from the redundant EMUs. If that means 319s (rather than 321s or 455s) then so be it. The negative thing would be if the different ROSCOs started each doing their different conversion programmes - given they will each have hundreds of unwanted EMU carriages.

If we just focus on a fleet of (maybe) fifty 769s then there are plenty of places we could use them - a number of services that spend a significant period of the service under wires - let's crack on and convert them.

I just hope we don't waste energies trying to find separate solutions at three separate TOCs - but the muddle of the private railway means we may well see a lot of time/money wasted in this manner.

 

[samuelmorris]

The wasted money in my mind is more the modern units going off-lease. It's a bit wasteful to be retiring the 455s so soon after re-tractioning but they will at least have mostly done 4-5 years in that guise before retirement and in that time delivered hopefully better reliability and, in my opinion, a much smoother ride than the traction system that was replaced. Apart from that the units will be pretty much end of life by the time they are retired, at 35-39 years. The 319s may be slightly newer but most of the second batch are back in service with Northern, and the remainder are, apart from being 30 years old, also seemingly rather unreliable in practice, from what I've heard regarding the WMT units. The 321s will be 30-32 years old by the time they're retired and most of them have had minimal refurbishment.

What I do have a problem with, is the 458/5s, 350/2s, 360/1s, 379s and 707s being off-lease. This is where it seems madness to be ordering brand new DMUs while they sit gathering dust.

 

[mushroomchow]

Sorry to douse the flames, but there isn't a single route EMT operate which would see use of a 769's bi-mode capabilities.

The routes bandied around currently operated by 153s will remain diesel-powered throughout for the duration of the franchise unless, at a stretch, you take into account a small stretch at the end of Derby-Crewe services, or the short stretch through Grantham for Nottingham-Skegness trains. There's zero point in replacing these services with a bi-mode unit primarily designed for electric operation.

They may be slightly more useful on the Norwich - Liverpool diagram, but the units themselves are completely unsuited to such a long-distance route, even compared to the less-than-ideal 158s currently in use. That route is far more likely to eventually end up in the hands of a 222, but that is assuming it even stays in the EM franchise - there's talk of it being transferred to a different franchise, probably XC, with the trade-off being Birmingham-Stansted for EMT or its successor. Which, again, has electrified provisions which are patchy at best.

That just leaves the Corby-London service, which will be entirely electrified by the time the franchise is retendered. In any sense, the DfT has refused to include the line in the Thameslink franchise against all better logic, because, and I quote from what their representative told me at the public consultation meeting in Leicester, "passengers won't accept the use of suburban stock as opposed to the current standards of the Meridians in use on the line". Which, of course, rules out the suburban 769s (and most other electric stock going off lease apart from 91s and Mk 4's). Whatever is chosen would form a tiny non-standard fleet with bespoke maintenance requirements for the franchise to have to deal with, but that's another issue for another thread.

In short, 769s to the East Midlands franchise would be entirely pointless.

 

[Roast Veg]

Running through the next round of franchise announcements (ignoring W&B):
- Southeastern - no lines that are not electrified, so unlikely
- West Coast - 125mph tilting trains are required, so that's a no from them
- East Midlands - limited electric lines with most of the distance of the wires being for 125mph services, so fairly unlikely
- Cross Country - 125mph stock mostly required although the other routes could also benefit from extra stock however reducing top speed from 100mph would unlikely to work well, so again a no.
- Great Western (post 2020 start date) - there could be done places where the 769's could work well (i.e. North Downs Line, where they would increase capacity a little and improve loading/unloading times for busy services), but without a higher top speed or electric sections (or at least ejected sections due within a few years) they could be a bit of a bad fit, so a few could be a possibility.
- Thameslink/Southern/Great Northern - a limited of routes that are not electrified but given the risk of knock on delays of something goes wrong an unlikely home for them, so probably a no
- Chiltern - with their use of bubble cars there could be a case for a few, but again other options would be better, so likely to be a no
I could go on, but given that anything beyond that would be starting in 2023 (even then the possible franchise, i.e Northern, would be 2025) it is unlikely that the units would be stored for that long and if they are their condition could mean that they were costly to convert.

Southeastern may take over the Hastings to Ashford line as part of the new franchise, and bidders have been invited to consider options for the route as points towards their bid. 769s might not be the HS1 extension Hastings wants, but I don't believe they're out of scope (though it has been a while since I read the ITT). Similarly if the line is kept with Southern then they may be able to do the same, though they cannot operate in the Oxted tunnel so replacement of all the Selhurst diesels is not possible.

Although neither EMT nor XC are particularly good candidates, the Birmingham to Stansted route would benefit from the increased capacity and bi-mode capabilities of the 769, though only because it would allow the use of alternative platforms at Stansted Airport and would take an idling diesel engine out of New Street. Still a microfleet for a limited purpose, however, and they would not be suitable for the Nottingham to Cardiff service under XC.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What I do have a problem with, is the 458/5s, 350/2s, 360/1s, 379s and 707s being off-lease. This is where it seems madness to be ordering brand new DMUs while they sit gathering dust.

I'd figure it would probably be a lot more difficult to convert any of those to DMU, though? It's probably far easier with a "classic" and fairly supply-tolerant 750VDC EMU than any modern kit.

In any case I'm sure those EMUs will end up somewhere as EMUs, other than possibly the 458s which are very early post privatisation EMUs and aren't even that good (like the similarly mediocre Classes 175/180). In particular I'd expect GTR (Southern) to end up with the 707s allowing 455s to be scrapped. 379s similarly I'd expect to have third rail gear fitted and go to Southern, or if not there then C2C.

IOW, I'd expect a bonfire of ex-BR EMUs (even quite new ones like Networkers) but the above will all find a home with the possible exception of the 458s.

 

[northwichcat]

What I do have a problem with, is the 458/5s, 350/2s, 360/1s, 379s and 707s being off-lease. This is where it seems madness to be ordering brand new DMUs while they sit gathering dust.

To me that sounds like DfT thinking. Electrification projects were supposed to keep 319s, redundant from Thameslink, in service but as it's been shown electrification of a few routes takes far longer than procuring new trains. The ROSCOs are also responsible for some of the stock going off-lease e.g. the high 379 leasing costs and Porterbrook preventing Northern leasing 323s in the hope the West Midlands franchise would be a better option. If the ROSCOs create a problem why should passengers on non-electrified routes be squeezed like sardines on to tatty old 142s because there's surplus stock for electrified routes?

 

[edwin_m]

Sorry to douse the flames, but there isn't a single route EMT operate which would see use of a 769's bi-mode capabilities.

The routes bandied around currently operated by 153s will remain diesel-powered throughout for the duration of the franchise unless, at a stretch, you take into account a small stretch at the end of Derby-Crewe services, or the short stretch through Grantham for Nottingham-Skegness trains. There's zero point in replacing these services with a bi-mode unit primarily designed for electric operation.

They may be slightly more useful on the Norwich - Liverpool diagram, but the units themselves are completely unsuited to such a long-distance route, even compared to the less-than-ideal 158s currently in use. That route is far more likely to eventually end up in the hands of a 222, but that is assuming it even stays in the EM franchise - there's talk of it being transferred to a different franchise, probably XC, with the trade-off being Birmingham-Stansted for EMT or its successor. Which, again, has electrified provisions which are patchy at best.

Reading that I do wonder about the Derby-Crewe service. The "small stretch" at the Crewe end actually goes all the way to Stoke, 14 miles including a section where the units could use a 100mph capability to help keep out the way of Pendolinos, and it would reduce diesel fumes in the covered station at Crewe and possibly Stoke as well depending where they start the engines. That's about 30% of the journey length, not enough to charge up a battery but maybe enough to justify use of a 769? However, since Mr Grayling deployed the wire cutters there won't be a "short stretch" of electrification at the Derby end.

If someone could come up with a bi-mode adaptation of one of the newer off-lease units, and include more diesel power for 100mph capability and aircon, then this would be useful on many routes currently worked by 158s (assuming an interior similar to a 185/170 would be fitted as well). However I think this is very unlikely because newer units have only one car (none at all on three-car units) that doesn't have either electric traction packages or a transformer underneath. A 769 has all the traction equipment in one car, so three cars are potentially free for fitting of diesels and two are actually being used.

 

[A0]

I'd figure it would probably be a lot more difficult to convert any of those to DMU, though? It's probably far easier with a "classic" and fairly supply-tolerant 750VDC EMU than any modern kit.

In any case I'm sure those EMUs will end up somewhere as EMUs, other than possibly the 458s which are very early post privatisation EMUs and aren't even that good (like the similarly mediocre Classes 175/180). In particular I'd expect GTR (Southern) to end up with the 707s allowing 455s to be scrapped. 379s similarly I'd expect to have third rail gear fitted and go to Southern, or if not there then C2C.

IOW, I'd expect a bonfire of ex-BR EMUs (even quite new ones like Networkers) but the above will all find a home with the possible exception of the 458s.

The 379s have been mentioned a few times as possible to head to EMT to operate the Corby services - for which they'd be ideally suited.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The 379s have been mentioned a few times as possible to head to EMT to operate the Corby services - for which they'd be ideally suited.

Agreed there. I'd imagine the Bedford commuters would also like them.

 

[samuelmorris]

Yeah 379s to Corby would make a lot of sense, though I can't see that using the entirety of the fleet.
I also agree that the newer units would be much more difficult to convert to DEMUs, I'm not necessarily advocating doing that, just remarking that the situation we are in with still desperately needing 150s yet having 350/2s laid up is laughable and government policy should probably be preventing that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Unless you mean they shouldn't have canned a load of electrification, how do you propose those 350/2s are used to replace 150s?

FWIW the 350/2s are rather a special case. They're going off lease because of the ludicrous price and conditions of said lease (the same lease that results in them staying in on weekends and 4-car sets being run around full and standing). The other 350s which are remaining are on far better terms. I think what was done needed to be done for them to be offered to another TOC on better terms.