East-West Rail (EWR): Consultation updates [not speculation]

[muddythefish]

DarloRich has it spot on in Post #1496. This is the reality - it is as true for public procurement just as it is for private purchases. Although I might like a 58" TV with all the bells and whistles - if the money only stretches to a 32" set then that is what is has to be.

It is a very simple concept to understand.

So is short-termism and not planning for the future.

 

[coppercapped]

So is short-termism and not planning for the future.

The further away the future is, the less likely are predictions to be right.

It is very likely that you will be wasting your money, in fact the further away your 'future' is it is a cast iron racing dead-certainty that you will waste your money. That is, you spend it on things you might need in 15 years time when you could have spent it on something badly needed now. That way lies madness.

 

[HowardGWR]

I haven't been able to look at any details yet of the proposals. Are they capable of being expanded to double track main line standards, without extensive rebuild of what is now proposed? The mistake with the Borders line was to build single track bridges, etc, when it would have been marginally more expensive to have built for double.

 

[Verulamius]

Page 17 of Network Rail’s December 2017 update to its enhancement project sets out the revised scope of phase 2 of east West Rail (Bicester to Bedford etc)

https://cdn.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Enhancements-Delivery-Plan.pdf

Upgrading the existing Bicester Village to Bletchley freight line as a double track 100mph multi-functional railway capable of accommodating three passenger services each way per hour.
• Upgrading the existing Aylesbury to Claydon Junction freight single-line to be capable of accommodating one passenger service per hour.
• Retention of existing freight capacity and identification of opportunities to enhance capability.
• Minor upgrading of the existing Bletchley to Bedford passenger railway to accommodate one additional fast passenger service each way per hour
• New station at Winslow
• New high-level platforms and track remodelling at Bletchley
• New overline structures to be constructed to W12 + electrification loading
gauge

 

[richieb1971]

We live in a country where the Prime minister has often stated there is no money. When her job was at risk she paid £1Billion to the Irish to secure her job. What does she do now that she has secured her job? She says our country has to continue austerity measures because we have no money.

Thats the world I live in. Where I am misled, often deceived and regularly lied to.

But yeah, I need a reality check.

 

[muddythefish]

The further away the future is, the less likely are predictions to be right.

It is very likely that you will be wasting your money, in fact the further away your 'future' is it is a cast iron racing dead-certainty that you will waste your money. That is, you spend it on things you might need in 15 years time when you could have spent it on something badly needed now. That way lies madness.

Madness is not providing for future growth, and having to pay £3 in the future for investment that would cost £1 today. An example is the single track overbridges on the Borders line.

It's called looking past the end of your nose.

 

[muddythefish]

We live in a country where the Prime minister has often stated there is no money. When her job was at risk she paid £1Billion to the Irish to secure her job. What does she do now that she has secured her job? She says our country has to continue austerity measures because we have no money.

Thats the world I live in. Where I am misled, often deceived and regularly lied to.

But yeah, I need a reality check.

Exactly.

Whether it's' £6bn aircraft carriers with no aircraft, or tax cuts for millionaires, the "magic money tree" always delivers when necessary.

 

[DarloRich]

But also wrong. Countries, unlike households, can print money and for countries which, like the UK, can borrow in their own currency this may be a wise thing to do if the end result is improved infrastructure.

but if the government don't want to do that ( and this one don't) it is like suggesting the UK government could put a man on the moon. They can. But they wont. Therefore it offers nothing to help. We could borrow more money but we wont. We have what we have. Do you want a railway line or no railway line?

So the money isn't there to build a double track railway line but £7bn plus is around to build a gold-plated road expressway. In the real world, and contrary to what politicians say (well done for quoting them by the way), money is always available.

Perhaps the government investment compass is off but who cares? We cant change that. The real world is very different to the fantasy world many of you seem to live in

Scaling back EWR smacks of expediency and will inevitably lead to the problems that have afflicted the Border railway, another reopened line descoped to save costs in the short term but now shackled with regards to future long term growth because of cost cutting.

I am sure that this will cause problems in the future but that is tough. We have what we have today. That might not be enough to deliver the gold plated super special railway spotters desire but it might deliver a badly needed railway.

BTW Money is NOT always available. Money is finite and constrained in the investment context it must be spent where it will create the best return. Network Rail get a certain amount to spend. Choices have to be made because there isnt any more money coming. That is reality.

If, in the future, more investment is needed to improve a line you have to ask again under a different funding round. Money will not be assigned now to provide for the future when that money can be better spent on issues today. It may seem short term but it is a reality.

We live in a country where the Prime minister has often stated there is no money. When her job was at risk she paid £1Billion to the Irish to secure her job. What does she do now that she has secured her job? She says our country has to continue austerity measures because we have no money.

Thats the world I live in. Where I am misled, often deceived and regularly lied to.

But yeah, I need a reality check.

That's one of the reasons why we haven't got enough money for everything we would like. If you don't like that vote for the other guy...........................

Madness is not providing for future growth, and having to pay £3 in the future for investment that would cost £1 today. An example is the single track overbridges on the Borders line.

It's called looking past the end of your nose.

With respect it is called cutting your cloth accordingly. That single track bridge might be the difference between a railway line and no railway line. Want to gamble for more or stick with what you have?

Exactly.

Whether it's' £6bn aircraft carriers with no aircraft, or tax cuts for millionaires, the "magic money tree" always delivers when necessary.

but the aircraft carriers do have aircraft with more on order..............................

 

[cle]

Page 17 of Network Rail’s December 2017 update to its enhancement project sets out the revised scope of phase 2 of east West Rail (Bicester to Bedford etc)

https://cdn.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Enhancements-Delivery-Plan.pdf

Upgrading the existing Bicester Village to Bletchley freight line as a double track 100mph multi-functional railway capable of accommodating three passenger services each way per hour.
• Upgrading the existing Aylesbury to Claydon Junction freight single-line to be capable of accommodating one passenger service per hour.
• Retention of existing freight capacity and identification of opportunities to enhance capability.
• Minor upgrading of the existing Bletchley to Bedford passenger railway to accommodate one additional fast passenger service each way per hour
• New station at Winslow
• New high-level platforms and track remodelling at Bletchley
• New overline structures to be constructed to W12 + electrification loading
gauge

Ok so the main losses are the wires, the 3tph (does that include the existing freight bin-liners and potential new freight?) - and the Marston Vale.

3tph via Winslow I am guessing include 2tph to MKC and 1 tph to Bedford, referenced. The MKC assumptions being the Marylebone and then a E/W from Reading/Oxford. Nothing long distance seemingly - with the Bedford being a future Cambridge. I wonder if they could extend to Corby or Northampton on these routes - and do a little more.

Real shame, but better than nothing. Hopefully the signalling can be upgraded easily enough - at least to Bletchley as a start.

 

[The Planner]

It is being built to deliver that train spec but it will have enough to put more in if there is space on the graph. If it doesn't deliver at least a 4 minute headway on the main line I will eat items of clothing.

 

[muddythefish]

It's all rather pathetic that supposedly one of the richest countries in the world refuses to invest in its rail infrastructure properly. In the past year, we've had cancellation and cutting back of key electrification schemes and now a reopened rail line linking two of the fastest growing cities in the country is being scaled back through short term thinking and cost cutting expediency. Still, at least the £7bn expressway isn't suffering the same fate......

 

[The Planner]

Is the £7Bn expressway committed and funded or is that just your normal speculation?

 

[DarloRich]

It's all rather pathetic that supposedly one of the richest countries in the world refuses to invest in its rail infrastructure properly. In the past year, we've had cancellation and cutting back of key electrification schemes and now a reopened rail line linking two of the fastest growing cities in the country is being scaled back through short term thinking and cost cutting expediency. Still, at least the £7bn expressway isn't suffering the same fate......

Complain to your MP then!

 

[BucksBones]

I am saying, really rather obviously, that only a finite amount of money is available. Sometimes you have to settle for what you can get rather than what you want. I live in the real world. You don't. You live in a fantasy world where money grows on trees and can just be spent as you wish. You really have no idea.



If I have £500 and your "good, workable and relatively inexpensive ideas" cost £675 they cant be built. That is the reality. And yes I am sure we will pay for that in the future but money can not just be pulled out of thin air. That is the world we live in. Cash is constrained more than ever and under greater political control. If the budget changes then what you can deliver has to change. It is no good whining that you might need that bit of kit tomorrow when there is barely money to pay for the kit you need, for certain, today.

You have to deliver what you can not what you might like. What can be delivered for the available cost is a simple railway. That is it. Sadly not everyone here understands ( or even wants to know) about those challenges.

I wasn't going to come back on this and haven't looked at it all day but looking at it now I must protest - it's not my "good workable ideas" I'm defending (I haven't got any!) but other people's right to have them without being shouted down. Can't we have a civilised discussion and air opinions without resorting to black and white, right and wrong "you people have no idea" sledging and accusing people who happen to disagree with you of "whining"? This is a public forum and I have always believed that a modicum of civility is essential in these environments. I'm sure (or at least I hope) you wouldn't speak to anybody like that in person.

 

[edwin_m]

With the Electric Spine beind dead, if it was ever realistic in the first place, I think we have to accept that EWR will carry very little freight in the short to medium term. What it does carry is likely to be 75mph intermodal, which can get quite a long way before it is caught up by a 100mph passenger train that stops every 10-20 miles.

I think de-scoping is OK so long as it's reasonably easy and not too expensive to add the de-scoped items later if it turns out that they were needed after all (or they became necessary later on). So I hope the construction makes that sort of passive provision and where necessary a moderate amount of what ought to be called "active provision". For example a new overbridge on a single line that might eventually be doubled should being be built for double (as Borders Rail didn't) because that costs very little extra and far less than replacing it later. On the other hand things like earthworks can be added to with relatively little "abortive spend" if more tracks are needed.

 

[aylesbury]

The first bypass for Aylesbury was suggested in the 1940s, but was killed off by shop keepers on the town council frightened they would lose trade and since then the county council has ignored our town.The district council are hell bent on filling every square yard of our area with houses and providing connecting roads (single lane) that will supposedly take traffic away from the town .If you suggested a dual carriageway round the north of town now it would have to pass well north of Bierton due to house building and HS2 is going to get in the way near Waddesdon and people there are not happy about anything that affects the village.A rail link to Oxfordvia Thame is out of the question due to cost and houses ,we have an efficient bus service(280 X80) every fifteen minutes comfortable and an interesting journey its well used.Bicester is not well served by buses but frankly there never has been a big demand for it the car is the favoured mode of travel. The Expressway is something that has gone quiet lately making me wonder if its on the back burner .but it faces years of protests and delays so don't expect anything for twenty years and even then it will not happen (the treasury wont allow the money).Bring on EWR we need it and I hope the penny pinching civil servants can be defeate so as we a fit for purpose travel link.

 

[B&I]

I wasn't going to come back on this and haven't looked at it all day but looking at it now I must protest - it's not my "good workable ideas" I'm defending (I haven't got any!) but other people's right to have them without being shouted down. Can't we have a civilised discussion and air opinions without resorting to black and white, right and wrong "you people have no idea" sledging and accusing people who happen to disagree with you of "whining"? This is a public forum and I have always believed that a modicum of civility is essential in these environments. I'm sure (or at least I hope) you wouldn't speak to anybody like that in person.

Quite. There seems to be a particular tendency to open up on people with both barrels if they challenge any aspect of the railway status quo. Isn't part of the point of this site discussing how people think things should be, rather than just discussing how they are?

 

[67018]

Quite. There seems to be a particular tendency to open up on people with both barrels if they challenge any aspect of the railway status quo. Isn't part of the point of this site discussing how people think things should be, rather than just discussing how they are?

I really can't understand the level of complaints on here. It looks like this project might actually happen, and the descoping could have been much worse - for example the Aylesbury line could have been dropped altogether if money really was being cut to the bone.

All these comments about 'the richest country in the world' and a 'great country', not to mention aircraft carriers, are just distractions that don't add much to the debate.

As for "one of the richest countries in the world refuses to invest in its rail infrastructure properly" - what about the vast amounts of cash spent on the railways in recent years? Not before time I might add, but given the limited return so far on the money spent and the cost overruns on major projects, I'm more worried that the politicians will realise that they are wasting taxpayers' money on something that doesn't deliver and which people are always going to complain about - in which case there are plenty of deserving places elsewhere they can spend the money on.

Incidentally, spending £1 now to save £3 in the future may not be worth it, depending on how far in the future and what happens with inflation and interest rates.

 

[DarloRich]

I wasn't going to come back on this and haven't looked at it all day but looking at it now I must protest - it's not my "good workable ideas" I'm defending (I haven't got any!) but other people's right to have them without being shouted down. Can't we have a civilised discussion and air opinions without resorting to black and white, right and wrong "you people have no idea" sledging and accusing people who happen to disagree with you of "whining"? This is a public forum and I have always believed that a modicum of civility is essential in these environments. I'm sure (or at least I hope) you wouldn't speak to anybody like that in person.

Quite. There seems to be a particular tendency to open up on people with both barrels if they challenge any aspect of the railway status quo. Isn't part of the point of this site discussing how people think things should be, rather than just discussing how they are?

Your "good ideas" cant be delivered within the available budget. That is the key issue you seem unable to grasp. I wish you could.

 

[coppercapped]

If you want to borrow money, you are effectively reducing your future income. The money has to be repaid together with a payment as a ‘thank you’ for the loan.

There are clearly differences between people and countries, two of them being that countries can print more money and can tax their inhabitants. However there is no fundamental difference in the effects of borrowing on the person or body doing the borrowing.

The UK Treasury borrows money through the money markets; the money suppliers are mainly rich organisations and people, many of these are based abroad. The Treasury then has to pay the interest to these people for the amount it borrowed. As Government generally does not spend the borrowed money on activities which return a profit (the true meaning of ‘investment’) there is no income from this source. The only way a Government can pay the interest is by taxing its citizens.

This means that the average person is taxed to make the rich even richer. It’s even worse than that - your children and grandchildren will be taxed to pay the interest on the money borrowed which has been spent on you, now.

This is, in my book, indecent, immoral and an almost criminal attack on your children’s future.

It is of course, possible to avoid having to repay the sum borrowed at the end of the term by the expedient of rolling it over into new borrowings. This avoids the repayment issue, but the interest has till to be paid. If the money markets lose confidence in a country’s ability to pay then the price of the money borrowed (the interest rate) goes up. It is quite possible that the rate goes up on money already borrowed - so the taxpayer will have to pay more.

Why not print money to pay for the interest payments? It doesn’t work - at least in the middle and long term. All that happens is that the greater volume of cash sloshing around the system promotes inflation - prices rise in money terms. I am aware that many of the posters here are too young to remember but we have enjoyed an unrivalled period of over a quarter of a century with low inflation in the range of 2% to 3%. (Although it did reach peaks of over 4% after the financial crisis of 2008 (when ‘quantitative easing’ was the vogue) and another peak of just over 5% in 2011). In 1975 however inflation reached 25% which was scary - pay rates couldn’t keep up. At the end of the year you were 20% poorer than at the start. It took more than 10 years to get inflation back to a ‘tolerable’ level of 5% or less.

I do not have a problem with Governments borrowing if needed to maintain demand during an economic downturn - but borrowing during the better times as well simply builds up difficulties for the future.

So, if you want to get money out of the hands of the average person in the country into the hands of rich people - demand, among other things, that East-West Rail is future proofed.

 

[richieb1971]

I will tell you why I am angry. I am angry because this country built so much before without much a do. Affordability is often not about "We haven't enough money" as it is "your charging far too much in the first place". Countries that are flourishing at the moment aren't charging £1 billion for a Wembley stadium, £6 billion for an aircraft carrier and half a million for a decent sized house. I am pretty sure the kitty is empty for railways because all these infrastructure projects are extremely expensive compared to other places in the world. This country should be able to build this railway to spec and easily within a reasonable budget. To opt for cut backs just screams bad management and penny pinching to me. Mind you, Carillion made sure their top dog management got paid even when they were not able to build to spec and to the agreed budget. It makes you wonder what all this money gets spent on.

 

[muddythefish]

So, if you want to get money out of the hands of the average person in the country into the hands of rich people - demand, among other things, that East-West Rail is future proofed.

Thanks for that. Given me my biggest laugh for a long time.

 

[muddythefish]

I will tell you why I am angry. I am angry because this country built so much before without much a do. n.

Quite right. Dig up the directors of the Midland Railway. I wonder how the visionaries who built St Pancras station would view a country now that cannot "afford" to build a piddling 2-track cross-country railway.

 

[absolutelymilk]

£6 billion for an aircraft carrier

£3 billion per aircraft carrier (there are two), which compares fairly favourably to the new American carrier which cost over $10 billion (even excluding development costs)

But in general, yes project costs are far higher than in the 1800s because land and planning costs as well as costs imposed by regulation are far higher.

 

[DarloRich]

Quite right. Dig up the directors of the Midland Railway. I wonder how the visionaries who built St Pancras station would view a country now that cannot "afford" to build a piddling 2-track cross-country railway.

You do realise the MR were a private company don't you? You do understand the difference in funding a private and public company don't you?

£6 billion for an aircraft carrier

How much do you think a USN Gerald R. Ford class aircraft carrier costs?

I am pretty sure the kitty is empty for railways because all these infrastructure projects are extremely expensive compared to other places in the world. This country should be able to build this railway to spec and easily within a reasonable budget. To opt for cut backs just screams bad management and penny pinching to me. Mind you, Carillion made sure their top dog management got paid even when they were not able to build to spec and to the agreed budget. It makes you wonder what all this money gets spent on.

back to this again?

 

[coppercapped]

I will tell you why I am angry. I am angry because this country built so much before without much a do. Affordability is often not about "We haven't enough money" as it is "your charging far too much in the first place". Countries that are flourishing at the moment aren't charging £1 billion for a Wembley stadium, £6 billion for an aircraft carrier and half a million for a decent sized house. I am pretty sure the kitty is empty for railways because all these infrastructure projects are extremely expensive compared to other places in the world. This country should be able to build this railway to spec and easily within a reasonable budget. To opt for cut backs just screams bad management and penny pinching to me. Mind you, Carillion made sure their top dog management got paid even when they were not able to build to spec and to the agreed budget. It makes you wonder what all this money gets spent on.

You do, of course, realise that the headline cost of the electrification of the Euston- Birmingham - Manchester - Liverpool route in 1966 was around £180 million. That seemed a lot of money at the time - and it was. In todays money this is the equivalent of £2,600 million.

The UK is not unique in the costing of large projects.

In Germany there is a project (Stuttgart 21) to rebuild the terminus station in Stuttgart as a underground station and to connect it to the existing high speed line towards Mannheim to the northwest and to the high speed line - now under construction - eastwards towards Ulm, Augsburg and Munich. First conceived in 1988, the project has gone through several permutations. The new station and urban redevelopment project originally had a price tag of €2.6 billion ($3.3 billion), but the likely outturn costs will be around €10 billion and it will be completed several years late. This is for 6 platforms and the connecting tunnels...

And the US aircraft carrier Gerald R Ford cost $10.4 billion (without aircraft) when completed last year...

 

[richieb1971]

I don't know how much the revamped Bletchley with extra platforms would cost, but I'd ditch that idea first. You already have a station with more than enough platforms as it is. Put some points in south of the station, let the passenger trains cross all the tracks and join it up at Swanbourne (or thereabouts). Freight goes over the top. This way all services operate as normal. The MKC service can opt to stop at Bletchley or go over the top for a quicker end to end time.

 

[class26]

You do, of course, realise that the headline cost of the electrification of the Euston- Birmingham - Manchester - Liverpool route in 1966 was around £180 million. That seemed a lot of money at the time - and it was. In todays money this is the equivalent of £2,600 million.

The UK is not unique in the costing of large projects.

In Germany there is a project (Stuttgart 21) to rebuild the terminus station in Stuttgart as a underground station and to connect it to the existing high speed line towards Mannheim to the northwest and to the high speed line - now under construction - eastwards towards Ulm, Augsburg and Munich. First conceived in 1988, the project has gone through several permutations. The new station and urban redevelopment project originally had a price tag of €2.6 billion ($3.3 billion), but the likely outturn costs will be around €10 billion and it will be completed several years late. This is for 6 platforms and the connecting tunnels...

Not to mention Berlins new airport which should have opened in 2014 and is still nowhere near opening, is massively over budget and when (and IF ) it opens is already out of date and too small. Makes the Great Western electrification look competent !

 

[DarloRich]

Not to mention Berlins new airport which should have opened in 2014 and is still nowhere near opening, is massively over budget and when (and IF ) it opens is already out of date and too small. Makes the Great Western electrification look competent !

I remember working with a German project manager who talked about this - his pay off was that everyone thinks the Germans are this beacon of efficiency and perfect delivery. He said they were as bad as us but had better PR!

 

[coppercapped]

I don't know how much the revamped Bletchley with extra platforms would cost, but I'd ditch that idea first. You already have a station with more than enough platforms as it is. Put some points in south of the station, let the passenger trains cross all the tracks and join it up at Swanbourne (or thereabouts).

I don't know whether you are being serious or not.

Do you know how many fast line trains use the Down Fast line through Bletchley in an off-peak hour? And similarly how many trains use the Up Fast per off-peak hour? Have you worked out how much time a crossing move such as you describe would require? Where would you fit in a gap of this size, plus a minute or so for delays and so on, through the opposing streams of fast trains, let alone those also using the Slow lines in each direction?

Freight goes over the top. This way all services operate as normal. The MKC service can opt to stop at Bletchley or go over the top for a quicker end to end time.