A viable business case for a new generation of tilting trains post-HS2 looks unlikely, to say the least.
I've suggested before (in the West Coast Franchise thread) that a new order of 6 coach tilting trains this side of HS2 could be beneficial. The reasons for this are:
- WCP being able to partly replace their 221's
- WCP maybe being able to run extensions to some of their services which currently start/end at Birmingham
- WCP maybe being able to run more services to Liverpool (either as part of the above and/or by splitting services to Manchester
- WCP maybe being able to run to other places, such as extending one of their Manchester services northwards and include Bolton onto their network
- WCP could then run shorter units after HS2 opens and/or more services that split on route to provide more paths for other services on the WCML (for instance Manchester may have 2tph after HS2, but these are paired with services to Liverpool over the southern part of the WCML, which means that London could gain two additional commuter/semi fast services which it couldn't otherwise have)
Yes it could be that this means that there's too many units, but then it could be that others (open access operators and XC to babe a few) could then use the existing 390's which are then no longer needed by WCP.
As an example by 2026 XC should be able to run Reading to Manchester by 390, with the possibly (depending on funding for the conversion of 3rd rail between Basingstoke and Southampton and for the electrification of Reading to Basingstoke) of being able to get Southampton. This would require between 9 and 11 units depending on extent of the service.
That could mean a straight 1 for 1 replacement of 20 existing units (10*221's and 10*390's) for the new 6 coach units.
20*6 is 120 coaches which is a good sized order so that the costs per coach aren't too high. It also means that there's still scope for some 125mph services after about 2040 when the 390's may need to be retired, without the need to order more at that point, but still with a large enough potential order at that point if needed.
20 units is probably also feels about the right number of units (effectively 5 extra full length 390's if you assume 10 are being used to replace 10*221's) without it being too many. That could then mean 10*221's for use by XC.
It should be remembered that in 2040 if there's an average annual growth rate of 2.5% that there could be over 70% more rail passengers than there is now and so if there's 100 passengers between Rugby and London now that could be 170 in 2040. Bearing in mind that those 100 passengers are currently on a train with 500 passengers from Birmingham (of whom 150 may still need to use that service now and so 255 in 2040) in 2040 that could still be 425 rather than 600, add in demand from a few other stations as well as allowing for future growth and it could still be worth running 9 or 11 coach 125mph tilting units beyond 2040. Yes there is likely to be need for fewer units but it's entirely possible that there could be more tilting trains running after HS2 opens.