There is a realistic chain of events that I can foresee though. The demographics of Northern Ireland are changing year by year as the Catholic community has a higher birth rate and lower emigration rate. If recent figures are to be believed a majority of those of working age are now Catholics. Equating voting intentions to religious persuasion is, even in NI, over simplistic as opinion polls have shown that the majority in favour of the current arrangement is higher than a sectarian headcount would suggest, but nonetheless the percentage of the population disposed to reunification is only going to increase over time. Once opinion polls show a consistent majority in favour of reunification on both sides of the border a referendum will follow. As to when or indeed if this happens is anybody's guess.
I largely agree with this as your rationale makes perfect sense. I’ve highlighted part of your quote in bold though, not because I disagree with it but because that’s the main reason why I believe that Irish reunification is unlikely at any point in the foreseeable future.
There will always be large percentages of people in NI who identify as either British or Irish but in addition to that there’s an ever increasing number who consider themselves to be Northern Irish as a unique identity all of it’s own. And the percentage in this third category increases with each generation. Anecdotal evidence I’ve had from people who identify as Northern Irish as to why they choose to do so mainly comes from that they’re sick of the sectarian past, want no more violence/trouble and feel that a single Northern Irish identity is useful at helping to break down religious/political divides.
Saying that, the ones I’ve met have no intention of wanting to change the power-sharing institution or the constitutional status of Northern Ireland because the status quo has created a form of lasting peace and that’s the most important thing to them.
I can foresee events in which an independent NI could happen, with the two main ones being a hard border as a result of Brexit or Scottish independence causing the breakup of the UK into its component nations but I think that there would still be too much unrest from the Unionist community if Irish reunification was attempted to make it palatable to the majority of the NI population. Saying that, I suspect that this unrest wouldn’t be as strong if NI independence was the end result rather than reunification.
Of course my NI theory above is partly reliable on anecdotal evidence from a small sample size in real terms but there is further reading available on the subject that reinforces my opinion. For anyone interested this Wiki page is a good starting point:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_of_Northern_Ireland
As you’ve already mentioned though, Northern Irish politics is an incredibly complex subject (probably worthy of it’s own thread) and considering this is the Brexit thread I don’t want to stray too far from the topic already under discussion.
So bearing that in mind, but whilst also keeping NI in the current discussion I’d like to ask the Brexiters on this thread how they propose managing the UK’s border post Brexit because I can’t think of any good solution.
Unsurprisingly the EU have rejected the Chequers agreement border proposals because they’re unworkable, so as far as I can see we’re left with two options:
1. We continue to follow all EU regulations indefinitely in order to maintain an open border in Northern Ireland and so that we continue to have minimal checks at UK ports.
2. We impose a hard border, but how can this be done without creating unrest in NI and huge traffic problems in/around our port cities and probably Kent as a whole?
Or is there a third way? If there is please enlighten me!
