Porterbrook Cl.769 'Flex' trains from 319s, initially for Northern

[AndrewE]

Well, dynamic implies some form of motion. That would imply at least turning wheels.

Roger Ford's reported that 'dynamic testing' will occur at the end of the next week. However, he's admitted that he doesn't know what the 'dynamic testing' will entail.

And ignores the fact that the end of next week is well into September...

 

[Skymonster]

Should enable the cranks to get a view at the GCR diesel gala during the weekend after next then - maybe they'll work it on the Mountsorrel branch!

 

[matt]

Looks Porterbrook have solved any traction issues, just stick a 37 on the front

Bi-Mode in the sun by Matt Spencer, on Flickr

Although more seriously 319424 was taken to Brush this evening.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Looks Porterbrook have solved any traction issues, just stick a 37 on the front

Bi-Mode in the sun by Matt Spencer, on Flickr

Although more seriously 319424 was taken to Brush this evening.

769 problem instantly solved!

 

[Jonny]

Looks Porterbrook have solved any traction issues, just stick a 37 on the front

Bi-Mode in the sun by Matt Spencer, on Flickr

Although more seriously 319424 was taken to Brush this evening.

So, if they're taking one in, does that mean that one is ready to go?

 

[matt]

Well they took the last one to Brush at the beginning of July without one emerging.

 

[MatthewRead]

769 problem instantly solved!

No it isn't solved they're meant to be travelling under there own power

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Well they took the last one to Brush at the beginning of July without one emerging.

Though if they keep taking new ones in they presumably are making progress... unless they're also developing TARDIS technology and having more success with that!

 

[The_Engineer]

Roger Ford's reported that 'dynamic testing' will occur at the end of the next week. However, he's admitted that he doesn't know what the 'dynamic testing' will entail.

Well Roger, we are still waiting. July came and went, so did August. End of next week did not happen either! Any sign of ANYTHING emerging from Brush yet??

 

[507021]

A completed Class 769 unit was seen outside at Brush a couple of weeks ago.

 

[The_Engineer]

A completed Class 769 unit was seen outside at Brush a couple of weeks ago.

Progress indeed!! Any sign of a movement to the Great Central Railway yet??

 

[EE Andy b1]

A completed Class 769 unit was seen outside at Brush a couple of weeks ago.

How do we know it was completed?

Just because it had a new 769 number and paintwork or because it was moving under it's own power with no overhead wires!!

Why no publicity proper on this ground breaking conversion of old rolling stock.

No news is not good news!

 

[LOL The Irony]

Why no publicity proper on this ground breaking conversion of old rolling stock.

Probably because they read all the forums and know what a laughing stock they are for this project. And it's also late so worsened the fact that Manchester - Bolton - Chorley - Preston electrification was delayed until December.

 

[SansHache]

The Class 769 Flex bi-mode is the subject for the first lecture of the season at the IMechE North Western Railway Division. The event takes place in the John Dalton building at Manchester Metropolitan University at 6:30 pm on Tuesday 11th September. A good opportunity to hear first hand from people closely involved in the project.
https://nearyou.imeche.org/near-you/UK/North-Western/north-western-rd-centre/event-detail?id=15558
All are welcome at the IMechE events.

 

[507021]

How do we know it was completed?

It was joined together as a four car unit, fitted with engines and exhausts.

It's also been reported in another thread the barrier coaches for the 769 testing have arrived at the GCR.

 

[Cardiff123]

The Class 769 Flex bi-mode is the subject for the first lecture of the season at the IMechE North Western Railway Division. The event takes place in the John Dalton building at Manchester Metropolitan University at 6:30 pm on Tuesday 11th September. A good opportunity to hear first hand from people closely involved in the project.
https://nearyou.imeche.org/near-you/UK/North-Western/north-western-rd-centre/event-detail?id=15558
All are welcome at the IMechE events.

"Helen Simpson and Simon Evans will take us through their development from concept to testing and production."

How can they give a lecture on production when they haven't even started testing yet? They still seem to be trying to get the concept to work.

 

[js1000]

Well Roger, we are still waiting. July came and went, so did August. End of next week did not happen either! Any sign of ANYTHING emerging from Brush yet??

This project is so quiet - something isn't right. I'm starting to wonder if it is even "active" and just part of a smokescreen by Porterbrook. The Porterbrook chairman moaning about new franchises in The FT was clearly targeted at West Midlands Trains - they took the 323s off Northern in the expectation the new WM franchise would want them - but they were wrong and they ordered new trains.

Now the 43 323s have no home after next year. So it will be interesting to see what happens to the Northern 323s as they all due for C6 exams end of this year and next. If they return to Northern then something is up. If Northern can secure the future of the entire 323 fleet post-2020 then I see the 769 trial canned in favour of some new bi-modes. The 769 project has serious inherent risks and could end up wasting Porterbrook's time and money if it doesn't work.

The 319s have been maximised - most of them entered service in 1987/88 and are past the 30 year mark that rolling stock is usually amortised to - whereas most of the 323s only entered service in 1995 and should be going until at least 2025. As far as I'm concerned the only franchise who would be interested in the 323s at all is Northern - but if they don't want them then Porterbrook may have to write them off to keep EMU leasing costs profitable and will have no option but to keep the existing 319s and pray the 769 project actually works. If they play it wrong they could end having to write off the 323s, the 769 project failing due to structural/unreliability issues and end up with clapped out 319s with only a few years left in them. Porterbrook have already messed it up once with assuming the new WM franchise would take all the 323s so I'm sure they're wary of not making another mistake.

My point is the 769 project is just a back-up business plan for Porterbrook - hence why nothing is happening fast. They want Northern to take the 323s for another 10 years. They know full well the 323s are far more suited to Northern routes - they have superior acceleration than the 319s and can operate as a 6 coach service on some Northern routes if needs be.

The revenue from Northern taking the 323s long term can be guaranteed against 30-40 new bi-modes from Stadler for Northern, ATW & GWR if the sums add up. Northern sign a lease agreement to take the 323 early next year and Stadler offer Porterbrook a good deal on the 755s once they've finished their tranche for Greater Anglia. I know it's conjecture and reading between business lines but this whole Flex saga has the feel of "the reason this is taking so long is that it is not actually our Plan A and we are waiting on others to make a decision - namely Northern".

 

[ic31420]

A lot of speculation there.. . What about the other proposed 769 users?

 

[The Ham]

A lot of speculation there.. . What about the other proposed 769 users?

Quite, and I don't think the government will be too happy given that they have invested money in the project.

 

[a_c_skinner]

They want Northern to take the 323s for another 10 years.

I imagine they do, but the 769s are about the unwired routes or have I missed something?

 

[Cardiff123]

A lot of speculation there.. . What about the other proposed 769 users?

Keolis Amey W&B only intended to use the 769s until mid-2022 at the latest. The whole point of Wales getting 769s was to allow sufficient cover for Wales' long overdue PRM modifications program to start. ATW, who are gone in Wales in 5 weeks time, contributed £1 million to the 769s ordered for Wales as it was assumed the 769s would be in operation in Wales by late Spring this year, to cover for trains that have now had to be released for PRM mods with no cover resulting in short forms and overcrowding. I should imagine ATW have got that £1 million back.

If it's true that Wales is getting Northern 144s early next year instead of 769s to provide PRM cover, will Porterbrook really want to spend money on 769s for Wales that will have a maximum of 2.5 years in service? It would be easier to just allow derogations on 144s and 143s to allow Keolis Amey to keep them running until Wales' new Stadler and CAF trains start arriving in 2022/23.

 

[Agent_Squash]

The revenue from Northern taking the 323s long term can be guaranteed against 30-40 new bi-modes from Stadler for Northern, ATW & GWR if the sums add up. Northern sign a lease agreement to take the 323 early next year and Stadler offer Porterbrook a good deal on the 755s once they've finished their tranche for Greater Anglia. I know it's conjecture and reading between business lines but this whole Flex saga has the feel of "the reason this is taking so long is that it is not actually our Plan A and we are waiting on others to make a decision - namely Northern".

Do Porterbrook know where they are sending the 350s yet?

 

[northwichcat]

Keolis Amey W&B only intended to use the 769s until mid-2022 at the latest. The whole point of Wales getting 769s was to allow sufficient cover for Wales' long overdue PRM modifications program to start. ATW, who are gone in Wales in 5 weeks time, contributed £1 million to the 769s ordered for Wales as it was assumed the 769s would be in operation in Wales by late Spring this year, to cover for trains that have now had to be released for PRM mods with no cover resulting in short forms and overcrowding. I should imagine ATW have got that £1 million back.

If it's true that Wales is getting Northern 144s early next year instead of 769s to provide PRM cover, will Porterbrook really want to spend money on 769s for Wales that will have a maximum of 2.5 years in service? It would be easier to just allow derogations on 144s and 143s to allow Keolis Amey to keep them running until Wales' new Stadler and CAF trains start arriving in 2022/23.

Remember the Northern 769s have no guaranteed long term future, if Wigan-Bolton and Manchester-Stalybridge get wired then alternative options need to be looked at. Southport-Bolton-Alderley Edge has been suggested but I don't think that's a confirmed plan.

 

[FGW_DID]

A lot of speculation there.. . What about the other proposed 769 users?

Quite so, let’s not forget that the GWR 769s are required so that ultimately a number of GW 387s can take over HEX duties, which will see the withdrawal of the 332 fleet which will free up OOC HEX depot which is needed for the development of the new OOC station (Crossrail/HS2??).

So I would say, rather a lot rides on the success of the project!

 

[Chester1]

This project is so quiet - something isn't right. I'm starting to wonder if it is even "active" and just part of a smokescreen by Porterbrook. The Porterbrook chairman moaning about new franchises in The FT was clearly targeted at West Midlands Trains - they took the 323s off Northern in the expectation the new WM franchise would want them - but they were wrong and they ordered new trains.

Now the 43 323s have no home after next year. So it will be interesting to see what happens to the Northern 323s as they all due for C6 exams end of this year and next. If they return to Northern then something is up. If Northern can secure the future of the entire 323 fleet post-2020 then I see the 769 trial canned in favour of some new bi-modes. The 769 project has serious inherent risks and could end up wasting Porterbrook's time and money if it doesn't work.

The 319s have been maximised - most of them entered service in 1987/88 and are past the 30 year mark that rolling stock is usually amortised to - whereas most of the 323s only entered service in 1995 and should be going until at least 2025. As far as I'm concerned the only franchise who would be interested in the 323s at all is Northern - but if they don't want them then Porterbrook may have to write them off to keep EMU leasing costs profitable and will have no option but to keep the existing 319s and pray the 769 project actually works. If they play it wrong they could end having to write off the 323s, the 769 project failing due to structural/unreliability issues and end up with clapped out 319s with only a few years left in them. Porterbrook have already messed it up once with assuming the new WM franchise would take all the 323s so I'm sure they're wary of not making another mistake.

My point is the 769 project is just a back-up business plan for Porterbrook - hence why nothing is happening fast. They want Northern to take the 323s for another 10 years. They know full well the 323s are far more suited to Northern routes - they have superior acceleration than the 319s and can operate as a 6 coach service on some Northern routes if needs be.

The revenue from Northern taking the 323s long term can be guaranteed against 30-40 new bi-modes from Stadler for Northern, ATW & GWR if the sums add up. Northern sign a lease agreement to take the 323 early next year and Stadler offer Porterbrook a good deal on the 755s once they've finished their tranche for Greater Anglia. I know it's conjecture and reading between business lines but this whole Flex saga has the feel of "the reason this is taking so long is that it is not actually our Plan A and we are waiting on others to make a decision - namely Northern".

After spending money on repainting and refurbishing 319s for Northern it would be odd if they then went off lease with no likely opperator. I think most of the rumours about 323s are wishful thinking, the time to change plans was straight after the West Midlands franchise was awarded, not now.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Remember the Northern 769s have no guaranteed long term future, if Wigan-Bolton and Manchester-Stalybridge get wired then alternative options need to be looked at. Southport-Bolton-Alderley Edge has been suggested but I don't think that's a confirmed plan.

As I've said many times before, Barrow and Windermere are the obvious targets, though it would require a franchise agreement change (which isn't out of the question given the precedents for this happening) to allow a lower standard of stock to operate on Northern Connect services than presently required.

 

[Chester1]

As I've said many times before, Barrow and Windermere are the obvious targets, though it would require a franchise agreement change (which isn't out of the question given the precedents for this happening) to allow a lower standard of stock to operate on Northern Connect services than presently required.

The CLC stoppers would be another option, especially if platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly are built, allowing the services to extend past Oxford Road. 4 coach units would be the right size too. If they can manage the gradients on the Buxton line then they would significantly reduce running under the wires and again 4 coaches would be about right. Northern has plenty of options for them long term.

 

[js1000]

I know it's conjecture and speculation but I just think there is something more than meets the eye. Particularly if you consider Arriva Trains Wales have thrown £1 million of taxpayers' money at it for just 5 units - as well as potentially support from the DfT and other franchises and still very little progress. Either they are not confident the 319 can work as a bi-mode or Porterbrook see the 769 Flex project as inherently risky or as a Plan B.

As others have said, the 769 Flex could be a very short term project. They are a stop gap for ATW until 2022. I highly doubt Northern's 769s will see service past 2024 - the government will save the next tranche of electrification on services which would be operated by the 769 (Windermere, Wigan & Stalybridge) and commit to them as part of plans for the next General Election. GWR will more than likely order 20 purpose built bi-modes as part of the new franchise bid in 2020. So Porterbrook could be flogging a dead horse and they will never see a decent return on the investment in the 769.

After spending money on repainting and refurbishing 319s for Northern it would be odd if they then went off lease with no likely opperator. I think most of the rumours about 323s are wishful thinking, the time to change plans was straight after the West Midlands franchise was awarded, not now.

Porterbrook commenced refurb and repaint of the 319s in late 2016 prior to the new West Midlands franchise being awarded in August 2017 in the expectation Northern would take the 319s until mid-2025s (hence why they refurbished them) and the new West Midlands franchise would take all of the 323s. However it has not worked out like that.

Do Porterbrook know where they are sending the 350s yet?

Class 350/2s could go to Northern although I imagine leasing costs would be prohibitive compared to let's say 319s/323s as much more modern rolling stock.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Class 350/2s could go to Northern although I imagine leasing costs would be prohibitive compared to let's say 319s/323s as much more modern rolling stock.

Unless the Thais want them for their airport metro thingy (the stock they presently have is basically Class 360s with a slightly different seating layout[1] and beefier aircon units) they will no doubt reduce the price until someone takes them. They won't get scrapped, that would be plain silly; it'll be one of the 1980s Mk3 based fleets that are scrapped instead.

[1] Basically 2+2 seating in 3+2 width a bit like the Class 700, but using the Grammer E3000 used in other Desiros - and with exactly the same colour scheme as the 350/1, or side-facing in the stopping train units.

 

[northwichcat]

As I've said many times before, Barrow and Windermere are the obvious targets, though it would require a franchise agreement change (which isn't out of the question given the precedents for this happening) to allow a lower standard of stock to operate on Northern Connect services than presently required.

There's no reason why the 769s have to be internally cascaded if and when Wigan-Bolton and Stalybridge get electrified. I guess it will end up being Southport if they do remain at Northern given the objections to Southport losing direct services to Bolton and Piccadilly and running DMUs under the wires, even for peak time only services won't be popular either.