North Wales coast passenger count slumps 7% from 2012-3 to 2016-7

[Penmorfa]

Can we dispel the myth that most trains are full and standing? A few are but many are embarassingly quiet. The problem is the fares charged which are very expensive. A selection of routes showing pence per mile for anytime return fares:

Prestatyn - Chester: 30.3
Llandudno Jct - Chester: 25.4
Chester - Shrewsbury: 16.5
Wrexham - Bidston 14.8
Cardiff - Swansea: 13.2
Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury: 12.8

To put it another way, if Prestatyn - Chester were charged at the same rate per mile as Cardiff - Swansea the cost would be £6.86 not £15.80. Therein lies the problem and i'm afraid that a promised 10% fares cut by Transport for Wales will be too little and too late.

 

[sw1ller]

I'd like to see the future WCML franchisee operating hourly to Holyhead/Bangor/Llandudno which would solve that a different way.

But yes, I agree, few people want to go to Cardiff from North Wales. North Wales cares about Chester, Liverpool and Manchester, not Cardiff.

Completely agree with this. North wales is an extension of Chester and Wirral, it should be treated as such in the railways.

How is it right that I live 4 stops away from Stafford and I need to get 4 separate trains?? There’s no stations in between but it’s a massive ball ache to get there. Turns out, if I want to get to Newport though, I’m only a train journey away!!!

 

[Bletchleyite]

It does? Whose job is it to provide regional services from Shropshire and Herefordshire to Manchester (a significant flow from very many large and small towns, to one of Britain's biggest cites and third busiest Airport) then? As far as I can see this has nothing to do with Wales?

That too. My point was that people from North Wales by and large don't want to go to Cardiff, and people from Cardiff by and large don't want to go to North Wales, so the politically driven obsession with serving this market with the best trains is illogical in the extreme.

 

[Penmorfa]

Completely agree with this. North wales is an extension of Chester and Wirral, it should be treated as such in the railways.

How is it right that I live 4 stops away from Stafford and I need to get 4 separate trains?? There’s no stations in between but it’s a massive ball ache to get there. Turns out, if I want to get to Newport though, I’m only a train journey away!!!

I think you've unintentionally given us a quiz question there!

 

[sw1ller]

Ok, A you’re wrong, B I’m right.

 

[johnnychips]

I think you've unintentionally given us a quiz question there!

How about (the station nearest to Shotton on the Bidston line) - Shotton - Chester - Crewe - Stafford.

EDIT: Damn, that doesn’t fulfil the Newport criterion though!

 

[Polarbear]

I’ve not used the North Wales lines for several years now, simply because the fares are too high. My sister lives in Llandudno & I used to visit by train in the 80’s & 90’s.

These days, I go by car as a) it’s cheaper and b) I have greater flexibility - especially on Sunday’s outside of the supposed peak season where there is no train service between Llandudno Junction & Llandudno. Add in the relatively early finish times for the eastbound services & the car becomes a no-brainer.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I think we've identified a number of factors many common with other parts of the UK but also some that are unique to the line its probably the combination of the factors that's responsible however a couple that nobody has mentioned are the lines not serving the major employment areas in North Wales (Deeside & Wrexham Industrial Estates) & the relatively non congested A55 Expressway as competition.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think we've identified a number of factors many common with other parts of the UK but also some that are unique to the line its probably the combination of the factors that's responsible however a couple that nobody has mentioned are the lines not serving the major employment areas in North Wales (Deeside & Wrexham Industrial Estates) & the relatively non congested A55 Expressway as competition.

Though the A55 opened in the 1980s (in stages) - this wouldn't explain a drop-off some 30 years later.

 

[sefyllian]

The fares have been recognised as a problem. Among the commitments of the new Transport for Wales franchise:

As part of our commitment to North Wales, we will:
• Reduce walk-up and season fares to, from and within North Wales by 10% to encourage travel.

 

[Polarbear]

I'd add that up until the early 1990's, the bus was also reasonably competitive between Chester and Llandudno, in that there used to be a semi-fast service X1 (L1 in Crosville days). OK, it took two hours to get from Chester to Llandudno, but it was cheap & for those with time to spare, a viable alternative.

Such a service would, I feel, have a market today, but until recently, there's been little incentive for Arriva to operate such a service as all it would have done is abstract revenue from the railway. Now that Arriva no longer have the rail franchise, I do wonder if they may consider such a service?

 

[OrangeJuice]

How about (the station nearest to Shotton on the Bidston line) - Shotton - Chester - Crewe - Stafford.

EDIT: Damn, that doesn’t fulfil the Newport criterion though!

I'm struggling here as I can't see where you'd need more than 3 trains but still have a direct service to Newport

 

[krus_aragon]

I'd add that up until the early 1990's, the bus was also reasonably competitive between Chester and Llandudno, in that there used to be a semi-fast service X1 (L1 in Crosville days). OK, it took two hours to get from Chester to Llandudno, but it was cheap & for those with time to spare, a viable alternative.

And that's nearly half the time it takes today (3hr 45min, with two changes)...

 

[Gareth Marston]

Though the A55 opened in the 1980s (in stages) - this wouldn't explain a drop-off some 30 years later.

What I'm saying is that traffic levels on the A55 are not at the same level you find around urban areas elsewhere in the UK so there's no push factor toward rail nor is there any commuting driving growth.

 

[Polarbear]

And that's nearly half the time it takes today (3hr 45min, with two changes)...

In reality, it’s only one change at Rhyl. The 11 from Chester to Rhyl is one of those services that’s ‘split’ at Holywell, but normally it’s a through bus.

Still an almighty stagger though!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

TfW exists to provide service for Wales not Manchester or Liverpool, the airport for all of Wales is Cardiff, the administrative centre of Wales is Cardiff, train services should correctly go through Shrewsbury not Crewe.

Not true.
TfW (the franchise holder, Keolis Amey) has as much responsibility for its English routes, and services for Chester, Shrewsbury and Hereford, as its Welsh routes.
It's the Wales & Borders franchise.
WG and TfW (the WG transport agency) are well aware of that, and have agreements with the UK DfT to deliver services in England.
Places like Newton le Willows, Nantwich, Telford and Wilmslow depend on TfW services for their commuting to Manchester and Birmingham (with revenues going to Cardiff).
Cardiff Airport is totally irrelevant if you live in North Wales, whose residents use Manchester, Liverpool (and maybe Birmingham) airports - or even Heathrow.
That's why TfW has through trains to Manchester Airport and Birmingham International (and soon to Liverpool South Parkway for LPL).

 

[MDB1images]

Wouldn't by any stretch say I'm a regular on these services but catch the Class175's going to/from chasing the Class 67's and services always seem very busy and have had to stand frequently so surprised to see they have lost patronage.

 

[KevinTurvey]

Re Holyhead passenger numbers - When I worked there 20 + years ago there was huge investment in both ships and port facilities (including Dun Laoghaire) with big plans for the future. The Stena Hibernia and Cambria (both then nearly 20 years old) were replaced with the HSS which halved crossing times. Irish Ferries also replaced their old ship with a much bigger new one and supplementary services.

The rail timetable to Holyhead was improved as well, back in the early 1990's the service really was quite poor at certain times of day.

All seemed to look good for a few years with rising passenger numbers, but have the low cost airlines since taken most of the Irish traffic? The ferries in my opinion now seem much more geared around the freight operation, rather than foot passengers, which may explain declining railway passenger numbers.

In reality, Holyhead is not a large town and would not generate significant flows on its own.

The other point concurs with what other posters have said about fares. In early First North Western days there were still some very cheap day returns about. I can't remember when Arriva took over but those fares have become roughly 2-3 times more expensive since.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The HSS was slowed to reduce fuel consumption, made seasonal for a spell and then axed completely a few years ago.
Stena closed Dun Laoghaire as a ferry port and moved over to Dublin port with its classic ferries.
Irish Ferries still has its smaller Jonathan Swift fast ferry, but the times generally favour Dublin-Holyhead traffic.
Meanwhile the A55 is full of trucks heading for Ireland.
Rail/ferry connections at Holyhead are generally poor (with two sets of sailings to serve), though Virgin still runs a double Voyager on the mid-day London train.
TfW also has its loco hauled service from/to Manchester at similar times, otherwise it's the hourly 175/158 to Birmingham/Cardiff.
Night rail services have gone completely, so some sailings (the one-time Irish Mail) have no rail connection.
I don't think the once-popular day rail/ferry trips from Chester/North Wales to Dublin are feasible any more with the current timetables.
A lot of fresh air must be carried across Anglesey these days.
Having said that, I've seen decent loads on the Euston-Holyhead in summer, so there is still some demand.

 

[driver_m]

Obvious quick win for the North Wales would be to prioritise reconnecting Caernarfon. The road is a nightmare through there most of the day, and probably should reopen a few of the stations to capitalise on tourist traffic. Talacre in particular for some of those huge caravan sites that are next door.

A lot of people still get caught out by the 0150 being missing. Still get that look of horror regularly when someone comes up on nights and asks when the next London is and get told 0448.

Even opening a couple of commuter stations such as around Sandycroft or Queensferry would help drive up revenue. Trouble is most of the people travelling would want the 3 English cities in the NW and that doesn't suit the narrative for Cardiff politicians .Daft when you think it's helping the Welsh economy by taking money out of England to spend in Wales and a Welsh operator can collect a lot if not all of that income stream .

 

[kieron]

It's still generally the same frequency/ stock as it was in 2012 - about the only real change I can think of (as an outsider) is the direct services to Manchester Airport

The change which affected me the most over that period was the introduction of loco-hauled trains between Manchester and Holyhead. These trains operate in the path of the all-station stopper, but don't stop everywhere. This makes the timetable more irregular, and thereby makes the railway less of a practical proposition for someone travelling from, or changing at, Shotton, but I'm sure it's not a major driver for these figures.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The change which affected me the most over that period was the introduction of loco-hauled trains between Manchester and Holyhead. These trains operate in the path of the all-station stopper, but don't stop everywhere. This makes the timetable more irregular, and thereby makes the railway less of a practical proposition for someone travelling from, or changing at, Shotton, but I'm sure it's not a major driver for these figures.

As with most locations I think a full “Takt” is needed, which the likes of these services, along with Gerald (and VTWC), mess up.

 

[Starmill]

Worth pointing out that most of the justifications/ excuses discussed here are things that haven't changed since 2012/2013 - we can blame high fares/ free bus passes for the pensioners/ the obsession with through services to Cardiff/ short trains/ lack of through tickets to Chester Zoo/ poor late night services etc but things haven't changed that much in that timescale - other routes in the UK have seen ticketing validity changes (so that cheaper "day" tickets are scrapped, forcing people to buy more expensive "period" returns... or "off peak" services suddenly become "peak"), so this isn't unique to the coast.

I agree that fares are probably a relatively small part of it. Insomuch as they are I expect that fares do put people off, and have done increasingly as fares have risen much more quickly than average incomes over the period in question, but this is probably a small effect. I expect market share is usually low on this flow.

If I were commissioning a study into this I would want to make my priorities the following:

- Bona fide usage figures gained from counts to eliminate some of the statistical implications of the ORR estimates

- The attractiveness of ferry services and train-ferry itineraries and bundled products, including marketing and ease of retailling

-The impact of ticketless travel

-Train-bus connections throughout the region

These are things where there has been at least scope for change since 2012ish. Exactly what the answers to the problem are likely depend on different things.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I speak from some experience about the attempts to fit train services (OK - pre 2004 TT) , with "ships" at Holyhead - raised at the very highest levels by stakeholders and operators. When a compromise was nailed down - the marine operator went off pattern for their own reasons.

Very difficult in the 21stC to rely on ferry operations to boost rail loadings. We of course, know this from Fishguard and Stranraer.

I suppose - a very through look at actual demand and potential is needed.

Does not auger well for any aspirations for electrification IMHO.

 

[CambrianCoast]

From a personal perspective, driving has become a cheaper option in many cases on the north Wales coast. £44.90 for a return from Bangor to Manchester, £97 for a return from Bangor to London on top of the parking charges at stations (not that I’m advocating for parking to be free by any means) and no sign of these fare rises slowing down any time soon. It also doesn’t help on Sundays with seemingly silly operations like running Manchester to Chester and no through service along the coast, then having to rush a train-full of passengers from platform 5 to platform 3 where the train is already packed to the rafters usually with a 2 coach service. There may well be a logical operational reason for this but to the passenger it just looks daft. People are fed up, and rightly so and will take to their cars if this is an option they have available to them. That’s what I’d personally attribute as one of the causes to the drop in passenger numbers.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Odd really - compare another "Coastway" service - Southern , which although serving "London on Sea - Brighton" , goes through a string of what were - not very good coastal towns in both directions towards Hastings and Southampton , yet carries really good off and peak services patronage.

Maybe someone ought to do a quick comparitor on ticket pricing etc , certainly there appears to be some excellent fares available on these routes.

I am tending to think that a bit of "sparkle" on this route would pay off , something for the new operators to get hold of. Not much point in "laissez faire" - with what seems like falling use - and unaffordable fares.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not sure I'd compare Coastway with the North Wales Coast line. The former is more of a kind of "Merseyrail-on-Sea" than it is the NWC.

As to the NWC itself, I agree it needs a bit of "sparkle". It's a run-down, sometimes overcrowded and half-hearted operation that is nothing more than just "OK", and not even that at times. Which TBH describes the former ATW operation to a tee. Just a bit rubbish, really. As the A55 isn't "just a bit rubbish", you can see why people desert it for the car.

Fares coming down would massively help, but in the end the service needs to be actually good.

 

[Dr Day]

Not wishing to spoil a good rant about fares, but....

Are trips to Ireland actually included in the ORR data, as the ticket destination on through tickets isn't Holyhead? I couldn't immediately spot anything one way or the other in the Background Information on the data spreadsheets. Also do tickets sold in Ireland feature in the ORR data at all?

Looking further back at the data, there appears to be a strong increase (28%) in the period 2007/8-2011/12, so perhaps the more recent decline is some adjustment back to 'normal' levels, or changes in the way tickets to/from Ireland are treated within the data capture over time?

On a similar theme, maybe rail journeys on the various integrated transport tickets are also a factor? IIRC, certain local rail journeys at one time around 2011 were cheaper on the zonal integrated fares than the same journey on a rail point-to-point fare.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I suspect the "Irish" traffic is a bit of confusion - time maybe for a proper review on the strengths and weaknesses of the present operation and markets.

Sort of thing that a BR Business Manager would have done , - but then , what do I know ...

 

[ChrisC]

The fall in passenger numbers must also have hit businesses in the holiday towns along the coast. Prestatyn, Rhyl and Llandudno must be missing out on trade from day trippers throughout the summer who can’t afford to pay the high fares. All three of these towns seem ideal destinations for day tips from the Stoke on Trent and Manchester areas, but now with no Day Return fares people will not pay over £40 for a day out. However without more capacity bringing back the Day Return fares at around £20 would only result in overcrowding. The withdrawal of the Day Return fares for this type of journey was a hefty stealth price increase.