North Wales coast passenger count slumps 7% from 2012-3 to 2016-7

[70014IronDuke]

As a totally random exercise, I decided to look at the ORR passenger counts for the years 2013-4 to 2016-7 on the NWales coast route.
(I have been over the route - 30+ years ago, but it is not a route I know at all.)

To my amazement, all major stations along the route have seen a slump in passenger entries+exits in the last 5 years of published figures. In brief (taken off the wikipedia entries for the stations)

Rly Statn - 2016-7 pax %change (on 2012-3)
Holyhead - 211,000 - - 11%
Bangor 657,000 - 3.4%
Conway 48,832 + 26.0% (the one station with positive growth, but small numbers)
LLadno Jcn 320,000 - 7.2%
Colwyn Bay 278,000 - 10.3%
Rhyl 534,000 - 12.4%
Prestatyn 345,000 - 4.7%
Flint 261,000 - 3.7%

TOTAL reduction from 2,855,410 to 2,654,800 or 200,600/2855410 = - 7.0%

Apologies if this has come up on here before, but I haven't noticed it.This seems a serious fall in traffic. Considering most services have seen a rise in passenger counts - what is behind the falls on the NW coast? I was under the impression that the service has been improved.

Just for the complete picture - these last two are not 'pure' NW Coast (of course)
Shotton 234,124 - 4.9%
Chester 4.65 million + 54.0%

Apols for any mistakes in the calculations - I've only done them once.

 

[yorksrob]

Have there been any particularly onerous price rises/changes to conditions over this time ?

 

[alex17595]

Could it be something to do with the fares? I was looking through some of my old tickets and the last time I took the train from Tutbury and Hatton to Conwy it was around £16 with a CDR. Looking at the price now it is £30 for an Off Peak return, for that price I may as well drive.

 

[yorksrob]

Could it be something to do with the fares? I was looking through some of my old tickets and the last time I took the train from Tutbury and Hatton to Conwy it was around £16 with a CDR. Looking at the price now it is £30 for an Off Peak return, for that price I may as well drive.

How long ago was it that price ?

 

[PeterY]

I don't think short trains helps and the service is far from reliable. My daughter lives in Prestatyn and as had a few rail journeys disrupted due to trains skipping some stations, to make up lost time.

 

[alex17595]

How long ago was it that price ?

I have found the tickets.

31 May 2013
Tutbury + Hatton - Conwy Off Peak Day Return - YP Railcard
£17.45

 

[yorksrob]

I have found the tickets.

31 May 2013
Tutbury + Hatton - Conwy Off Peak Day Return - YP Railcard
£17.45

Cheers. According to the BoE inflation calculator, £17 in 2013 would only be £18.52 by 2017, so £30 is pretty inflation busting. I can see that putting off a lot of the discretionary trade.

 

[Gareth Marston]

All of the Welsh threads in recent years have of course commented on needing train services to be relevant and adverse comment has been made at the number of trains heading to Cardiff.

 

[alex17595]

Cheers. According to the BoE inflation calculator, £17 in 2013 would only be £18.52 by 2017, so £30 is pretty inflation busting. I can see that putting off a lot of the discretionary trade.

The day return has completely gone, there is just the Off peak return (valid on any train) or an Anytime Single.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I've noticed the fall-off in North Wales coast numbers over the years, and it continues down the line towards Shrewsbury.
But you aren't allowed to endorse "no growth", because it doesn't suit the lobbyists and politicians.
Chester, the main area hub, continues to grow strongly, so apparently in "English" directions.

There's just one complication round here.
Merseyrail's numbers also appear to be declining, but that seems to be linked to the PTE zonal fare structure which doesn't map well onto the ORR methodology.
Merseytravel talk about significant growth which is not what the station figures say.
I can't think there is a similar issue affecting North Wales passengers.

Local fares are high.
I sat through a presentation by ATW once where they admitted North Wales fares were significantly higher than those in South Wales, for historical reasons.
It came down to BR regional fares policy (ie RR NW versus RR Central in mid-Wales and RR W&W in South Wales), which is still reflected in the fare structure.

 

[yorksrob]

The day return has completely gone, there is just the Off peak return (valid on any train) or an Anytime Single.

A pretty hefty "stealth" rise in that case.

 

[Starmill]

By Welsh standards, the fares are unusually high. e.g. a Colwyn Bay to Chester ticket is £20.40 for less than 40 miles. A cheaper, time-restricted ticket is usually not an option for this route. Advance tickets are available but always very limited in numbers. The one way to save money on the route, a Virgin Trains Only ticket, has become less useful recently. For example, for Chester to Llandudno Jn, Off Peak Return valid only on Virgin Trains now costs £22.90, despite the fact that the same ticket valid on all trains is £22.40. I am not sure how many of those are sold... Some Virgin Trains only tickets seem to have simply been deleted. Even where a saving is available, e.g. a Chester to Holyhead return, there are not that many of these trains.

 

[yorksrob]

I've noticed the fall-off in North Wales coast numbers over the years, and it continues down the line towards Shrewsbury.
But you aren't allowed to endorse "no growth", because it doesn't suit the lobbyists and politicians.
Chester, the main area hub, continues to grow strongly, so apparently in "English" directions.

There's just one complication round here.
Merseyrail's numbers also appear to be declining, but that seems to be linked to the PTE zonal fare structure which doesn't map well onto the ORR methodology.
Merseytravel talk about significant growth which is not what the station figures say.
I can't think there is a similar issue affecting North Wales passengers.

Local fares are high.
I sat through a presentation by ATW once where they admitted North Wales fares were significantly higher than those in South Wales, for historical reasons.
It came down to BR regional fares policy (ie RR NW versus RR Central in mid-Wales and RR W&W in South Wales), which is still reflected in the fare structure.

It's easy to justify "no growth" if you implement massive stealth rises.

If the underlying fares differential is due to a BR era anomaly, why hasn't it been changed in the twenty odd years since then ?

 

[DarloRich]

Could it be something to do with the fares? I was looking through some of my old tickets and the last time I took the train from Tutbury and Hatton to Conwy it was around £16 with a CDR. Looking at the price now it is £30 for an Off Peak return, for that price I may as well drive.

Cheers. According to the BoE inflation calculator, £17 in 2013 would only be £18.52 by 2017, so £30 is pretty inflation busting. I can see that putting off a lot of the discretionary trade.

Are you comparing discounted student railcard prices with non discounted adult prices?

 

[alex17595]

Are you comparing discounted student railcard prices with non discounted adult prices?

Both of those are discounted with a railcard.

 

[Gareth Marston]

By Welsh standards, the fares are unusually high. e.g. a Colwyn Bay to Chester ticket is £20.40 for less than 40 miles. A cheaper, time-restricted ticket is usually not an option for this route. Advance tickets are available but always very limited in numbers. The one way to save money on the route, a Virgin Trains Only ticket, has become less useful recently. For example, for Chester to Llandudno Jn, Off Peak Return valid only on Virgin Trains now costs £22.90, despite the fact that the same ticket valid on all trains is £22.40. I am not sure how many of those are sold... Some Virgin Trains only tickets seem to have simply been deleted. Even where a saving is available, e.g. a Chester to Holyhead return, there are not that many of these trains.

The new franchise has a commitment to reduce some fares on the North wales coast. The SDR from Newtown to New St 76 miles is £20.70 as a comparison.

 

[Higginsafcb]

My regular line. Feels like the most expensive line in the UK with limited discounts. There's a poor late night service in either direction & the stock(175) is knackered & needs a good refurb. I often drive from Rhyl to Chester or Crewe to increase my fare options, comfort & flexibility.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Merseyrail's numbers also appear to be declining, but that seems to be linked to the PTE zonal fare structure which doesn't map well onto the ORR methodology.

Not the PTE - I think it could well be linked to the zonal day tickets that Merseyrail themselves promote - near enough all off peak travel is done either on those or on Saveaways, and I don't think they are recorded in the same way, not least because the destination is not known. I don't know if they are recorded against the origin - if they are, that might cause the drop-off at the suburban stations to be lower than that at Liverpool Central.

It also wouldn't be surprising to see a drop-off in numbers on commuter networks generally as "Friday from home" is becoming near universal[1] and many people are working from home even more than that.

Having said that I just looked at Wiki and it showed solid growth for the last 5 years at both Liverpool Central and Aughton Park to pick two.

[1] If you don't believe me, try the 0713 Bletchley to Euston on a Monday, then again on a Friday. On a Monday it'll be all seats taken with a fairly heavy standing load departing Watford. On a Friday there will be seats for everyone.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Back on track - (?) , it is well known about the fragility of the sea traffic from / to Holyhead.

Has anything changed down along the coast from a tourist trade point of view ? - does anyone actually market the use of the train services for example.

It should have been a bumper season with hot weather - though I suspect the "caravan coast" is more geared to the family or other car.

 

[Envoy]

If a tourist walked into Euston station today and purchased a one way ticket to Llandudno, it would cost a whopping £91.90. If that same tourist walked into London Euston and purchased a one way ticket to Dublin (using the same trains - apart from the couple of miles into Llandudno), it would cost £47.60 - including the ferry from Holyhead. No wonder passenger usage of the north Wales coast line is down! Presumably, the Dublin fares are cheaper because of low cost airlines on the route? The Welsh Government have failed to take action on this: presumably, they are promoting tourism in Ireland?

Now, before anyone comes on here and says that the Welsh Government can’t do anything about this because the route is mainly on English territory, I would like to point out that a similar thing occurs using their own ’Transport for Wales’ trains. A person walks into Cardiff station this morning and purchases a one way ticket to Bangor = £90.60. If that same person were to ask for a one way ticket to Dublin and leave the train at Bangor - it would ‘only' cost them £45.60 - as long as they could avoid getting caught by the rail gestapo for not making the full journey.

So, what would happen to someone who was wise to this and purchased the ticket to Dublin and left the train at a station in north Wales? Would the rail gestapo have them arrested for ‘travelling short’?

 

[Parallel]

I’ve never actually seen the Green Gestapo in North Wales actually. They must be there on occasion, or maybe that’s the problem - A lot of ticketless travel and nobody there to stop it!

Trains are generally well loaded on the North Wales Coast when I’ve used them, with a fair amount of long distance passengers too but the fares are proportionately high.

 

[johnnychips]

Back to the original post: if passengers fell by 7% over four years, but fares income increased by more plus inflation (as some posts suggest) then actually that means more profit/less loss for the railway. Not good for the passengers though.

 

[yorksrob]

Back to the original post: if passengers fell by 7% over four years, but fares income increased by more plus inflation (as some posts suggest) then actually that means more profit/less loss for the railway. Not good for the passengers though.

Nor the taxpayer either !

 

[507 001]

The fairs are expensive and have been like that for years, I used to use the train occasionally between Bangor and Chester around 2009, and can remember it being around £30 return then!

Add to that the absolutely dire state the 175s are in (ATWs internal cleaning reigime was awful) and you have a recipe for declining numbers. Shame really.

 

[Llandudno]

Yes, the fares charged are ridiculously expensive for the quality of service on offer.
There are no off peak day returns over most of the route.
Evening peak restrictions have been introduced on many sections of the route, including on contra flow peak travel
No marketing of the route to encourage discretionary travel
Should be attractive day return fares to Liverpool and Manchester
No inclusive ticketing arrangements with tourist attractions, ie Conwy Castle, Chester Zoo, etc
Last Eastbound train, circa 2030 from Bangor
No late Coast bound service on Saturday evening
Dreadful Sunday service, one train per hour
No Sunday trains to Llandudno after 11 September
No bus/rail integration at any station along the route, through tickets to Caernarfon etc
Trains regularly replaced by buses on Blaenau branch
Tickets not checked on trains, plenty of free riders not accounted for
Non clock face timetable, trains bunched at certain times of day
The trains need an internal makeover, like EMTs 158’s
Llandudno Junction Station is a dump

But as many trains are full and standing, perhaps it is a deliberate ploy to discourage travel!

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Yes, the fares charged are ridiculously expensive for the quality of service on offer.
There are no off peak day returns over most of the route.
Evening peak restrictions have been introduced on many sections of the route, including on contra flow peak travel
No marketing of the route to encourage discretionary travel
Should be attractive day return fares to Liverpool and Manchester
No inclusive ticketing arrangements with tourist attractions, ie Conwy Castle, Chester Zoo, etc
Last Eastbound train, circa 2030 from Bangor
No late Coast bound service on Saturday evening
Dreadful Sunday service, one train per hour
No Sunday trains to Llandudno after 11 September
No bus/rail integration at any station along the route, through tickets to Caernarfon etc
Trains regularly replaced by buses on Blaenau branch
Tickets not checked on trains, plenty of free riders not accounted for
Non clock face timetable, trains bunched at certain times of day
The trains need an internal makeover, like EMTs 158’s
Llandudno Junction Station is a dump

But as many trains are full and standing, perhaps it is a deliberate ploy to discourage travel!

Truly an advert then for the innovations and marketing enterprise of "privatised" rail services.

(I fondly recall "deeply inefficient" BR selling in the late 1970's , Cambrian Coast evening rovers after 1700 for about 60 pence and £7 day returns to London - First class too for that price. Even in the dark days of a railway under threat , they were assiduously trying to get some - any money into the system. Not just on the Celtic fringes either - 66p all day rover on the (threatened) Broad Street to Richmond route.)

 

[al78]

Yes, the fares charged are ridiculously expensive for the quality of service on offer.
There are no off peak day returns over most of the route.
Evening peak restrictions have been introduced on many sections of the route, including on contra flow peak travel
No marketing of the route to encourage discretionary travel
Should be attractive day return fares to Liverpool and Manchester
No inclusive ticketing arrangements with tourist attractions, ie Conwy Castle, Chester Zoo, etc
Last Eastbound train, circa 2030 from Bangor
No late Coast bound service on Saturday evening
Dreadful Sunday service, one train per hour
No Sunday trains to Llandudno after 11 September
No bus/rail integration at any station along the route, through tickets to Caernarfon etc
Trains regularly replaced by buses on Blaenau branch
Tickets not checked on trains, plenty of free riders not accounted for
Non clock face timetable, trains bunched at certain times of day
The trains need an internal makeover, like EMTs 158’s
Llandudno Junction Station is a dump

But as many trains are full and standing, perhaps it is a deliberate ploy to discourage travel!

Some might say if the trains are full and standing, passengers accept the fare price, therefore it is not too high.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Some might say if the trains are full and standing, passengers accept the fare price, therefore it is not too high.

Or that capacity is utterly inadequate (and will remain so, with the DMUs on order - I had hoped for an hourly long LHCS train, probably to Crewe, on the Coast as part of the new franchise).

 

[Llandudno]

Yes, like I said, I think it is a deliberate ploy to price people off the trains, as many of the trains only have two carriages so can’t shoe horn too many more people in!

TfW have a fantastic opportunity to integrate long distance TrawsCymru bus services with the rail network with through ticketing, reliable connections etc - but will they?
Imagine a rail map of Wales, with four or five key long distance bus routes added, may even a place for Aberystwyth to Carmarthen!

 

[gnolife]

Yes, the fares charged are ridiculously expensive for the quality of service on offer.

Tickets not checked on trains, plenty of free riders not accounted for

Some might say if the trains are full and standing, passengers accept the fare price, therefore it is not too high.

Or possibly that the passengers are willing to take the gamble on whether the guard can make it through to check their ticket before they get off?