The estimates normally come with a fairly comprehensive methodology report from the consultancy that has prepared them for ORR. As ‘Official Statistics’ I think they have to.Do they automatically include all of the season tickets on a 5 in 7 basis, or actual? WAT and therefore SWR will be down so so much this year. Given the sea change in habits caused by strikes and Network Rails seemingly interminable cornucopia of failure on SWR routes it could well be a lot closer to 90m than the almost 100m... that would be a huge change ....
2018 has not been a good year for passengers. And 2019 doesn’t look like being much better.
I looked so hard for this page and couldn't find it. Gah! Anyway thank you. Seems we will all have to come back in a month. They seem to like moving the date around a bit!They're due out on 11 December - see http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/publication-dates
Bag... Worms...
but every station that has less than 500 people a year should just close.
The Office for Rail and Road (ORR) will release the ever popular Estimates of Station Usage figures on the 11 December.
I know that the most popular used stainsst are often overlooked in favour of which stations are barely used; this year will include the All the Stations period, so some statistical quirks among the lesser used places are to be expected.
I was going to create a separate prediction thread, but it seems silly to duplicate:
I think the station with the lowest patronage will be British Steel Redcar. I'm predicting this as the bottom 10 (in roughly the following order):
1. British Steel Redcar
2. Teesside Airport
3. Reddish South
4. Coombe Junction Halt
5. Havenhouse
6. Stanlow & Thornton
7. Golf Street
8. Kildonan
9. Barry Links
10. Buckenham
You forgot Breich!
Bag... Worms...
but every station that has less than 500 people a year should just close.
Roman bridge?I was going to create a separate prediction thread, but it seems silly to duplicate:
I think the station with the lowest patronage will be British Steel Redcar. I'm predicting this as the bottom 10 (in roughly the following order):
1. British Steel Redcar
2. Teesside Airport
3. Reddish South
4. Coombe Junction Halt
5. Havenhouse
6. Stanlow & Thornton
7. Golf Street
8. Kildonan
9. Barry Links
10. Buckenham
No reason why that would make any difference. They used rover tickets rather than actually buying tickets to Berney Arms / Coombe Junction etc.
That's what I was thinking of, didn't write the message correctlyIt will impact Shippea Hill.
Roman bridge?
I think a lot of people will have visited in the period when it was under the threat of closure.You forgot Breich!
I don't think it will have declined far enough.And IBM!
No.Roman bridge?
I think a lot of people will have visited in the period when it was under the threat of closure.
I don't think it will have declined far enough.
No.
This period is April 2017 to April 2018. Breich was scheduled to close in December 2017.It will be interesting to see if IBM has declined
As for Breich, when did the announcement come out that Network Rail wanted to close the station? As it might have been after the cut-off for the stats [so might see a boost next year from both those wanting to visit in case it did close, and those visiting to see the shiny new platforms]
Outside the bottom 10 are stations which perhaps benefited from publicity stunts, local promotion, and staged visits, of I can put it that way.
That is not how station usage is calculated in these statistics.There is always an argument about accuracy of estimates. For example last week I made three return journeys from my local station to Birmingham Snow Hill, That means that my footfall at each station was 6 but because I have a pass and there are no barriers at my local station the only time that I was counted was as I passed through the barriers at Snow Hill and about half the time the barriers were open and unattended so I probably just counted as 3 passengers at Snow Hill for the whole week.
I think it's more likely that the figures will be skewed on lines where customers buy tickets to/from a station that has a longer journey because its the same price; this will be especially likely on routes where tickets are issued by staff on-board trains.As Britain does not have a fully gated rail network, a complete recording of passenger flows through stations is not possible. As a result, use of stations has to be estimated and there are some limitations on the data.
The estimates of station usage dataset is derived from the Origin Destination Matrix (ODM), a comprehensive matrix of passenger flows between stations throughout Great Britain.
The ODM is largely based on data produced for the MOIRA2.2 rail planning tool, which is produced for the rail industry by Resonate. MOIRA2.2 is a matrix that provides an estimate of journeys in the rail network in Great Britain for the duration of a financial year (1 April to 31 March). It is predominantly based on information from LENNON, the rail industry’s ticketing and revenue system. MOIRA2.2 includes all journeys associated with point to point flows and includes additional information to reflect travel on other products, such as London Travelcards and multi-zonal tickets in other major urban areas.
The production of the ODM requires some further adjustments to address known issues with the MOIRA2.2 data. These include an allocation of tickets sold to ‘London Terminals,’ allocation of demand between individual stations in group stations outside of London, such as Manchester group stations and a number of cases where adjustments are made to selected stations to account for specific known issues, for example Digby & Sowton.
A complete overview of the methodology can be found in the executive summary of the methodology report.