Why wasn't HS2 phase 1 four-tracked to Birmingham?

[mmh]

I can imagine Brum-Manchester for one being accelerated to the extent that it will be would make quite a severe dent in M6 road congestion.

So long as it is cheap enough to be compete against the convenience of door-to-door transport. So a fair chance it won't!

 

[Meerkat]

Of course, many of the "new" journeys may be instead of driving. And many people will change onto local rail services.

No, they won’t be. In the business case ex car journeys would be modal change journeys.
New journeys are those that wouldn’t otherwise have been made, ie a big negative in green terms.
The business case was that most journeys were new or abstracted from classic railway services.
So the best (hard to prove) argument on your lines would be that the capacity freed up on classic routes might be modal change from cars.

 

[Deerfold]

So long as it is cheap enough to be compete against the convenience of door-to-door transport. So a fair chance it won't!

If the pricing is as suggested, it should. There'll be lots of space to fill.

 

[mmh]

If the pricing is as suggested, it should. There'll be lots of space to fill.

I'd suggest it'd need to be significantly cheaper than the current prices to have any significant effect on road traffic, and I really don't imagine it will be!

 

[sprinterguy]

...but with passengers driving a fair distance to parkway stations rather than shorter, possibly bus, trips to their local station.

There will be hardly any 'Parkway' stations on HS2:

London Euston, Birmingham, and Manchester are all inner city locations integrated with or with short links to the classic rail network, so little change compared to changing from a local train or bus onto an inter-city train at a major station. The same goes for Leeds if the eastern branch of Phase 2 gets completed, and similar can be said for Crewe. And, admittedly away from the HS2 network itself, HS2 trains will serve existing stations at Stoke, Macclesfield, Liverpool, Preston and stations north to Glasgow on the WCML, and subsequently stations between York and Newcastle on the ECML, again if the eastern arm of Phase 2 is completed.

And I thought that the point behind Old Oak Common was that it would be integrated into the local commuter rail network in the form of Crossrail (and possibly LU?), rather than encouraging car use, though I could be mistaken.

The only 'Parkway' stations would be Birmingham Interchange and Manchester Airport, both sites that already have an infrastructure in place for the park and ride journeys that are made (Not to deny that HS2 services would probably result in an increase in such), and Toton on the eastern leg of Phase 2, which represents the only entirely 'new' parkway station site.

 

[Meerkat]

Toton is effectively Parkway.
The new Commuters will buy houses where they can drive to Birmingham Interchange.
I really don’t think many business customers will drive/bus to local station then get local train to HS2 station when they can just drive directly to Brum Parkway, Manchester Airport, Toton.

I admit I am biased as I think it is a white elephant that will increase London’s influence and commuter zone rather than boost the regional cities. The money should have been spent on incremental inter city improvements, NPR, and regional city commuter networks. And I am Home Counties Born and bred so this isn’t a bitter northern chip on shoulder rant......

 

[Railwaysceptic]

I admit I am biased as I think it is a white elephant that will increase London’s influence and commuter zone rather than boost the regional cities. The money should have been spent on incremental inter city improvements, NPR, and regional city commuter networks. And I am Home Counties Born and bred so this isn’t a bitter northern chip on shoulder rant......

Most Londoners agree with you. I've yet to meet anyone in London who has any enthusiasm for HS2.

Obviously most Londoners are not railway enthusiasts, but you'll have real difficulty persuading Londoners that the southern part of the WCML is especially congested and requires a £50 billion duplication.

 

[HowardGWR]

I admit I am biased as I think it is a white elephant that will increase London’s influence and commuter zone rather than boost the regional cities. The money should have been spent on incremental inter city improvements, NPR, and regional city commuter networks. And I am Home Counties Born and bred so this isn’t a bitter northern chip on shoulder rant......

I suppose that one would have to look at the GWML, post HST, for instance. Bristol Swindon and Reading have boomed. Lots of London business moved to Bristol and people too.

 

[Chester1]

Most Londoners agree with you. I've yet to meet anyone in London who has any enthusiasm for HS2.

Obviously most Londoners are not railway enthusiasts, but you'll have real difficulty persuading Londoners that the southern part of the WCML is especially congested and requires a £50 billion duplication.

Its £56bn for all parts, including contigency and for the whole project not London to Birmingham. Crossrail below its original budget and slightly above its revised budget showing that budgets for new lines can be met but that does not stop people making up figures for HS2.

 

[quantinghome]

...but you'll have real difficulty persuading Londoners that the southern part of the WCML is especially congested and requires a £50 billion duplication.

You'll have real difficulty persuading Londoners that anything exists outside Zone 6.

I admit I am biased as I think it is a white elephant that will increase London’s influence and commuter zone rather than boost the regional cities. The money should have been spent on incremental inter city improvements, NPR, and regional city commuter networks. And I am Home Counties Born and bred so this isn’t a bitter northern chip on shoulder rant......

Strange that Birmingham, Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester and Liverpool councils all disagree with your view. They are all pushing very strongly for HS2 - Sheffield City Council pushed hard to change the route to serve their city centre and fell out with surrounding towns in the process.

Regarding NPR, here's a quote from TfN director of NPR Tim Wood (https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...rticle?blocktitle=Top-Stories&contentID=18359 - paywall):

But with six touch points to High Speed 2 (HS2) and a shared section of track, Wood said it would be “catastrophic” if HS2 phase 2 did not go ahead to give the north to south connections.

 

[mmh]

Its £56bn for all parts, including contigency and for the whole project not London to Birmingham. Crossrail below its original budget and slightly above its revised budget showing that budgets for new lines can be met but that does not stop people making up figures for HS2.

Is that 56bn in Actual Pounds or Railway Pounds?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/27/hs2-high-speed-rail-budget-danny-alexander :

Sun 27 Oct 2013

HS2 high-speed rail project will not go over budget, insists Danny Alexander
Treasury secretary insists costs will not exceed £42.6bn as government faces crucial week for controversial line

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...-works-1bn-above-target-cost/10031999.article :

12 June 2018

Initial costs for High Speed 2 (HS2) main civil works are coming in around £1bn over budget, New Civil Engineer can reveal.

Multiple sources close to the project have confirmed that interim costs submitted by contractors are currently above HS2’s target cost of £6.6bn.

While one source said that the collective price was coming in at “around £1.2bn” over budget, another said that some bids were “as much as 30% to 40% higher” than their individual target price.

 

[Meerkat]

Strange that Birmingham, Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester and Liverpool councils all disagree with your view.

That is strange to me. I guess they know that this cash wouldn’t be really available for anything they might prefer (the risk is that if it goes over budget the non HS2 budget will be squeezed and rail enhancements will get nothing for ages). There is also politicians love of big white elephants they can unveil (particularly if they aren’t paying for it) and this ridiculous “Everyone else has high speed, so we must have it too” attitude.

 

[Ianno87]

So long as it is cheap enough to be compete against the convenience of door-to-door transport. So a fair chance it won't!

Road pricing might become reality between now and then too.

2hrs drive vs c.40-45 minutes on HS2 will be quite some physchological disincentive - a bit like London-Manchester today.

 

[Meerkat]

Road pricing might become reality between now and then too.

I can’t see road pricing ever working. It’s an enormous IT project and has significant civil liberties implications.

2hrs drive vs c.40-45 minutes on HS2 will be quite some physchological disincentive - a bit like London-Manchester today.

As usual this depends on where you start and finish - very rare to drive from city centre to city centre. The speed of HS2 does justify longer connections at each end though.

 

[Chester1]

Is that 56bn in Actual Pounds or Railway Pounds?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/27/hs2-high-speed-rail-budget-danny-alexander :



https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...-works-1bn-above-target-cost/10031999.article :

It doesn't state if they are at a level that would indicate exceeding the primary budget or the 40% contingency too. £56bn includes the contigency. Much of the supposed increased cost is just inflation in the 10 years since the project was annouced.

 

[Andy25]

I can imagine Brum-Manchester for one being accelerated to the extent that it will be would make quite a severe dent in M6 road congestion.

Once fully built I will be able to get from Wigan to New Street in 40 mins, that makes a major city other than Manchester and Liverpool commutable. Can imagine the same will be true for many others.

 

[Bald Rick]

I can’t see road pricing ever working. It’s an enormous IT project and has significant civil liberties implications.
.

Road pricing has worked for almost as long as there have been decent roads, they are known as tolls.

It would be rather straightforward to have road pricing on motorways, in the same way as the Dartford Crossing or London C / T charge. This is done on several tolled motorways in the States.

More comprehensive, variable road pricing covering the whole network would need more IT, but no more than is currently on a smartphone. It would be as simple as clicking google maps, selecting destination, and as well as it telling you how long it will take, it would also say how much it would cost.

 

[Meerkat]

Tolls on motorways work when it is a long way with no alternative, but our motorways are there to take pressure off main roads. Put tolls on them and traffic on all other routes would drastically increase.
So how does the charging system know what journey you have actually done? The BBC once showed the amount of data kicked out by a delivery company tracking its vans - it was huge. The volume of data to track millions of vehicle on every possible route would be mind boggling. Then you have to bill everybody, collect the money, chase the non-payers, and deal with challenges....
And it’s a Big Brother nightmare.

 

[Bald Rick]

Tolls on motorways work when it is a long way with no alternative, but our motorways are there to take pressure off main roads. Put tolls on them and traffic on all other routes would drastically increase.
So how does the charging system know what journey you have actually done? The BBC once showed the amount of data kicked out by a delivery company tracking its vans - it was huge. The volume of data to track millions of vehicle on every possible route would be mind boggling. Then you have to bill everybody, collect the money, chase the non-payers, and deal with challenges....
And it’s a Big Brother nightmare.

It’s just the same as Strava, just on a smaller scale.

 

[Meerkat]

not Really. They aren’t going to rely on where your mobile goes. Either some secure (how?) box has to go in every car (how is smart meter installation going?) or it’s ANPR cameras (Big Brother)

 

[The Ham]

not Really. They aren’t going to rely on where your mobile goes. Either some secure (how?) box has to go in every car (how is smart meter installation going?) or it’s ANPR cameras (Big Brother)

Given that very few people care about the London congestion zone, it could be possible to scale it up. Maybe have an outer zone, say the M25, where anyone going along or across the boundary would be charged with inner nodes to pick up those who travel only within the zone.

It wouldn't need to get everyone, maybe just anyone who crosses or uses any of the Motorways, key A roads (A1, A3, A11, etc.) and the North/South Circular. That would mean that people popping to the shops could avoid the charge, but those traveling longer distances wouldn't.

Due to the reduction in traffic you could then close, to through motor vehicles, some of the roads. This would provide safe cycling routes to accommodate the increase in cycling that could be seen.

To provide easy access to people who live on some roads but cutting through traffic you could charge £50 for any private motor vehicle that drives the length of certain roads in less than an hour, so that residents could still access those roads from either end but anyone who drive through pays a lot for the privilege.

 

[urpert]

Every train stopping at Old Oak Common sounds very sensible to me, not least because of the connections it will provide to Heathrow from the north. It will be an interesting feature though. Can anybody think of another high speed line in Europe where trains stop at an interchange style station like this so close the final destination? How long will the journey time from OOC to Euston be?

I hope the design of Old Oak Common is extremely friendly to passengers who are transferring from HS2 to Elizabeth line trains for the airport. For instance by having multiple connections from HS2 platform level to Elizabeth Line level. You want an experience as close to the Northern Line - Victoria line transfer at Stockwell as possible rather than a half mile walk from the end of the HS2 train to your Elizabeth line train. Maybe the platforms should have travelators as well.

I would much prefer that money is spent on making the interchange experience as near to perfect as possible than on any grand statement station. One of the failings of some high speed stations on the continent for me is that they concentrate on grand statement rather than the passenger transfer experience, especially considering the length of the trains.

I’d say Frankfurt Flughafen (Fernbf) is in almost exactly the same situation.

 

[Meerkat]

you could charge £50 for any private motor vehicle

We better agree to disagree as we are way off topic, but I will just point out that even if you could find a technically practicable solution it would be political suicide. Just look at how petrified Government’s are of increasing fuel duty

 

[Mordac]

The politically palatable alternative is to implement this for commercial vehicles only, or possibly only heavy goods vehicles, even. These cause a disproportionate amount of the wear and tear to roads, and congestion as well. As they are trade vehicles, they don't have any expectation of privacy in their movements, and fitting a tracker device could be a condition of their haulage license.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

We better agree to disagree as we are way off topic, but I will just point out that even if you could find a technically practicable solution it would be political suicide. Just look at how petrified Government’s are of increasing fuel duty

I'm in sympathy with your general stance but the reason successive Governments have been interested in road pricing is that they know that electric or hybrid vehicles will seriously reduce the revenue from fuel tax. This would be a disaster, something ignored by those obsessed with getting people out of their cars.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

You'll have real difficulty persuading Londoners that anything exists outside Zone 6.

What a silly generalisation! The Londoners you know are clearly not those I meet every day.

 

[Railguy1]

You'll have real difficulty persuading Londoners that anything exists outside Zone 6.

Please avoid making baseless comments which generalize a large group of people.

 

[NotATrainspott]

The politically palatable alternative is to implement this for commercial vehicles only, or possibly only heavy goods vehicles, even. These cause a disproportionate amount of the wear and tear to roads, and congestion as well. As they are trade vehicles, they don't have any expectation of privacy in their movements, and fitting a tracker device could be a condition of their haulage license.

That might not have the desired effect. What is a commercial vehicle? Until fairly recently, it was something that was obviously a lorry or a van. Now, with the dawn of the 'gig economy' it can include people's normal everyday vehicles, being used for simple delivery work. While there are plenty goods which can't avoid being carried in a large and obvious commercial vehicle, there are plenty others which are on the border line where the imposition of regulations for one type of vehicle makes it worthwhile to switch to a less regulated vehicle. If you started road charging for normal transit-style vans, it'd push the balance in favour of these 'gig economy' delivery services, just as vans are currently used to move larger goods, avoiding the tachometer and other lorry-specific regulations.

At a minimum we should be switching to a vehicle taxation system that takes into account the mass of the vehicle. It's nonsense that a 2.5 tonne Tesla Model X has cheaper road tax than a 1.0L supermini. I can't remember the exact equation but I recall that damage done to the road surface is proportional to the square or cube of the vehicle mass - hence why cycle lanes essentially never need to be re-surfaced. The damage done to others in a collision would also be proportional to the mass.

 

[Mordac]

That might not have the desired effect. What is a commercial vehicle? Until fairly recently, it was something that was obviously a lorry or a van. Now, with the dawn of the 'gig economy' it can include people's normal everyday vehicles, being used for simple delivery work. While there are plenty goods which can't avoid being carried in a large and obvious commercial vehicle, there are plenty others which are on the border line where the imposition of regulations for one type of vehicle makes it worthwhile to switch to a less regulated vehicle. If you started road charging for normal transit-style vans, it'd push the balance in favour of these 'gig economy' delivery services, just as vans are currently used to move larger goods, avoiding the tachometer and other lorry-specific regulations.

At a minimum we should be switching to a vehicle taxation system that takes into account the mass of the vehicle. It's nonsense that a 2.5 tonne Tesla Model X has cheaper road tax than a 1.0L supermini. I can't remember the exact equation but I recall that damage done to the road surface is proportional to the square or cube of the vehicle mass - hence why cycle lanes essentially never need to be re-surfaced. The damage done to others in a collision would also be proportional to the mass.

I appreciate the well thought out response. I'd argue that the issue is not the type of vehicle precisely, but the use to which it is put. Obviously this is going to miss some things, but I'd say use the requirements for haulage licensing which are already in place, and tack road pricing on to them. Obviously, this should take into account the type of vehicle: a 7ton+ lorry should pay more than a light goods vehicle.

 

[Meerkat]

At a minimum we should be switching to a vehicle taxation system that takes into account the mass of the vehicle.

It’s not just me then!
Tax = length x mass x pollution (relative factors to be decided).
Surely if you reduce the average vehicle length significantly then you reduce traffic jams and parking areas required as well as pollution. Less mass also means less serious accidents, less volume makes them less intimidating to cyclists.
I like the kei car concept from Japan. Make them massively tax efficient, and change lots of parking to be kei only, and it would make a massive difference.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kei_car