Northern rail have 393 units, 93 new units capable of DCO operation still leaves 300 that aren't. Even if you include the 333's that knock around the Leeds North West area it would still leave 284, and nobody is sure if 333001 that has gone for upgrade is being fitted with cameras, it's been missing for three month. It is also widely rumored that another of the 333s is being cannibalised and used for spares.
With such a multitude of units, and many routes operating with a selection of units, it is palpable nonsense to even think that the whole of Northernrail will be DCO anytime soon. This leads to other issues that nobody seems able to answer. If you take Barrow depot as an example. If DCO units head south to Manchester, and non DCO units head north to Carlisle, how on earth do you roster that with some staff Safety Critical and others not. What do they do if they need to operate a non DCO unit to replace in new set in for repair. More palpable nonsense.
We all know more chaos is looming this May. More timetable changes and a promise that the new sets will be operating is simply pie in the sky. It takes 9 days to train up a driver on the sets, that is once again a lot of drivers missing from running trains. ASLEF have agreed an extension of the overtime agreement, it won't stop the chaos. Rostering in the early days will be a nightmare for Northern management. Good luck.
The only effective way of running DCO with limited stock capable is if you have the sets on dedicated routes. This is Northern's plan initially. However, rostering doesn't work like that. On the Leeds North West only 8 sets are planned to operate, they need a minimum of I believe 15 to 18 depending on the time of day. How do you roster that if half the crews are not safety critical? More palpable nonsense.
I seriously think non of this has seriously been thought about. I also seriously think Northern truly needed the RMT input and a working agreement to get this underway. Since nothing is forthcoming, I see trouble ahead.
Now for the RMT.
It is utter rubbish to pretend that these strikes are faultlessly supported. As many commentators on here have rightly pointed out, scrap overtime working and you will get cancelled trains, but you will also get a steady stream of guards coming back, and many will breath a sigh of relief. If you think this isn't the case then answer me this. "If guards really wanted to cause massive disruption in the union strongholds of the west, why are more services not cancelled on a Sunday". Their agreement is such that they could bring the whole show to a grinding halt, but it doesn't happen does it.
Northern are frightened of saying " No rest day working" because they are unsure of the response. They are being battered that much by a poor service generally, provoking more would be a disaster.