Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

[Tetchytyke]

2. GWML electrification
3. North West Electrification
4. Midland Mainline Electrification

...none of which is remotely as extensive as was promised.

A bit like HS2 I'll wager.

Don't ask why people are against HS2 and then get arsey when we say why we are.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Agreed it isn’t the service they had before. On balance it’s better.

In some ways it is and in some ways it isn't. Rolling stock is worse, overcrowding is worse, again due to the piddly little trains that operate up there. Nuneaton, Lichfield and Tamworth did badly out of the change, although admittedly Atherstone and Rugeley did very well out of it.

Truthfully I expect Lancaster would keep flagship trains, as would Carlisle. Penrith and Oxenholme, unlikely. Maybe I'm too cynical.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But that is unlikely to happen as completely as you suggest. As I have commented elsewhere, there will still be a big demand for WCML expresses to/from places not served by HS2. Places like Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Rugby, Milton Keynes & Watford Jn. Most people are not going to use connecting services (or drive to somewhere like Crewe "New") when they can get to their destinations by direct (albeit slower) services.

Some will, some won't.

Between MKC and stations north of Crewe, you have a choice between the xx13 via Birmingham and the following xx40 North Wales service which comfortably connects with the same hour's xx13 at Crewe. The Trainline based planners at least (and I'd venture that well over 90% of VT passengers who book in advance use either the VT one or the Trainline itself) offer you both. I reckon, from observation, that about half go for the direct train and about half make the connection. The same thing occurs southbound where on approaching Crewe most VT guards announce the opportunity to save a bit of time by changing there if you have a walk-up ticket.

Or as another example, at least 50 passengers from Euston to Bletchley take the 1813 changing at Leighton Buzzard rather than wait for the following xx30 direct.

There will always be people who will only take direct trains, but there are plenty who will change if it saves them either (a) a load of time, or (b) a load of money.

 

[Bald Rick]

In some ways it is and in some ways it isn't. Rolling stock is worse, overcrowding is worse, again due to the piddly little trains that operate up there. Nuneaton, Lichfield and Tamworth did badly out of the change, although admittedly Atherstone and Rugeley did very well out of it.

Truthfully I expect Lancaster would keep flagship trains, as would Carlisle. Penrith and Oxenholme, unlikely. Maybe I'm too cynical.

Now I sometimes used Lichfield to commute to London. 2 trains in the morning peak, and realistically only one back in the evening. If you weren’t at Euston for the 1727, you went via Birmingham and took 2 1/2 hours. Next to no service in the off peak. If you wanted to head north, you had one train a day to each of Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow IIRC, or the occasional shaky shuttle to Stafford (when it ran). Otherwise you went via New St.

Now there’s 3 useful morning peak trains (the best is 1hr 15 for 116 miles), a fast service every hour in the evening peak, plus an hourly LNW service each way all day. Much, much better than pre upgrade.

Ps - overcrowding is worse because the service is more popular, and that is because it is better!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Don't ask why people are against HS2 and then get arsey when we say why we are.

We aren't getting "arsey", we're pointing out how the vast majority of your arguments are fallacious.

It is a valid argument to say "we should stop subsidising London commuters and just manage capacity by whacking the fares up, and instead spend the money on other things, such as giving Manchester a proper S-Bahn". I could be sold on that one, and it was my view prior to me getting a proper understanding of what the first phase could do for the south WCML.

But most of your arguments are that things that patently are true (e.g. how HS2 in your view won't enhance south WCML capacity, when it provably will) are not.

 

[tbtc]

But they may not, as evidenced by the statement to the Parliamentary committee quoted above.

Similarly, there's no guarantee that Lancaster will keep it's existing number of fast London trains in the 2030s if no HS2 is built - we may see more Euston - Glasgow services sped up by omitting the smaller stations (given the numbers that already skip Penrith/ Lockerbie/ Motherwell) - we may see fewer stops at smaller intermediate stops like Lancaster because someone decides that the time saved will attract more lucrative Scottish passengers and therefore be more economic.

I don't know - I'm only guessing - as are you - nothing is guaranteed about the timetable in twenty years time one way or the other - this outrage that things aren't guaranteed seems a bit misplaced!

Look at the timetables. See if you can run trains at different times. Look at running trains from different stations. Look at how technology will reduce passenger numbers. Increase the size of trains . Build new stations. Be more flexible with timetables.

There are no capacity problems on the WCML that couldn't be solved with better thinking

The people who do it for a living have failed if they're having to concede to a multimillion pound experiment connecting London to Birmingham with no intermediate stops.

I would love to have the opportunity to rewrite the timetables, to prove there's another way than HS2.

You remind me of the Brexitters who say that, maybe if we all just believed in Britain then all of the food shortages and job losses would be resolved - amazing magical thinking!

It's almost like running a high speed train every three minutes (that's over two hundred metres long and running at over a hundred miles an hour) on Victorian infrastructure is quite complicated, especially when you add in the junctions, the freight services...

It seems that it's not just regarding the EU where people don't trust experts...

My thoughts exactly - HS2 is like the EU - easy for people to criticise but when you ask them to come up with an alternative they either go strangely quiet or they come up with a Unicorn Based Solution.

Withdrawing most of the "direct" services between "non-HS2" stations will just drive people away from rail services. (As happened in the 1960s, when Dr Beeching mistakenly thought that - when a branch closed - people would drive, or use rail replacement buses - to the nearest major railhead; they didn't and were mostly lost to rail.

It's funny how the argument in favour of re-opening old lines often features the idea that opening a rural station will be a railhead for a wide geographic area - e.g. Tweedbank for the while Borders, Tavistock would serve a huge area of Devon... yet this railheadding doesn't work when it happens in reverse

A sense a Forum Meet in the offing with all this hat eating being threatened!

I think that, instead of the Forum donating money to a worth preservation project, we should use the next "surplus" to send a jumbo packet of Crayola to Preston so that @PR1Berske can show us all how to run a smarter/ flexible/ Unicornier railway...

 

[Bletchleyite]

Truthfully I expect Lancaster would keep flagship trains, as would Carlisle. Penrith and Oxenholme, unlikely. Maybe I'm too cynical.

Oxenholme (as a junction for the Windermere branch) is a prime holiday destination and removing direct services, at least in summer, would mean even more cars in the National Park. Of the stations between Preston and Carlisle, it probably has the best justification for direct services from London of the lot as a result. Having said that, it would to me be equally acceptable to remove the stop from the HS2 services but also extend *all* Windermere branch services back to Preston (or ideally Manchester Airport). As there needs to be a change anyway to get into the Park, as long as it remains as one change only (and is well-timed) that's fine.

 

[The Ham]

Funny, that's not what was told in evidence to Parliament:

After years of speculation, HS2 Ltd technical Director Andrew McNaughton has finally admitted that towns and cities in the Midlands, Scotland, Wales and The North West could lose direct services to London if HS2 goes ahead, for the benefit of commuters in Milton Keynes.

Giving evidence to the HS2 Hybid Bill Committee of MPs, McNaughton said;

“We take off the main line most of the long-distance non-stop services, because the purpose of HS2 is to serve cities on the long-distance network. That means in the peak we see at least 10 totally new services are available in the capacity that we released on the West Coast Main Line. We [HS2 Ltd] basically introduce 10 long-distance services, which means all those services come off the main lines.”

Towns and cities which are could see slower, reduced or no services at all to London if HS2 goes ahead are; Rugby, Nuneaton, Coventry, Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton, Telford, Shrewsbury, Tamworth, Lichfield, Crewe, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Wilmslow, Stockport, Runcorn, Warrington, Wigan, Blackpool, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Chester, Flint, Prestatyn, Rhyl, Colwyn Bay, Llandudno, Bangor and Holyhead.

Before the long list of towns the quote is "Towns and cities which are could see slower, reduced or no services".

That means that if the list some MAY lose their direct services all together.

Others MAY lose some of their direct services.

Finally some MAY see longer journey times (which could just be an extra 3 minutes).

As such, somewhere like Preston with Scott 4.8 million passengers a year is unlikely to lose all it's direct services. However it could see slower direct services and fewer direct services.

However, what if those slower services call at 3 more places (adding all of about 9 minutes) however it then allows passengers to connect to other locations benefiting people's journey times to a wider range of locations. Would that benefit the people of Preston more or less than getting to London 10 minutes faster?

Now if, by changing at Crewe you could still get to London 10 minutes faster than the old journey time, as well as the improved connectivity. What would that do to the amount of benefits for Preston?

If I were to have the choice of 1tph taking 2:12 and 1tph taking 3:16 or 1tph taking 2:25 and 1tph taking 3:16 both of which connected with HS2 services at Crewe which resulted in a journey time to London of 2:00-2:09 then I know which I would prefer.

Especially if the train which took 2:25 stopped at a station which was of use to connect with other locations (for instance Nuneaton).

The trains would be slower, however by being short they are of more use, yet it would still be possible to get to London in broadly the same time as before (of not sightly faster) by changing trains.

The combination of options would suit most people and wouldn't result in a big loss of people from the railways. Yet the extra connectivity would attract more people and probably way more than may be lost.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is absolutely inconceivable that Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith and Carlisle will lose all direct London services post HS2. It won’t happen. If it does, I’ll eat another hat, this time on the Euston concourse on opening day.

I'd agree that that is very unlikely. There is a very good chance that a classic InterCity service such as the present Euston-Birmingham-Scotland will continue to exist in order to provide better connectivity from Watford, MK and Rugby to Scotland not to mention Birmingham. I've also seen one proposal a while ago that suggested there would instead be an hourly Euston-Manchester-Scotland instead of via Birmingham, which would basically do the same thing, though in the context of what's happened to TPE since I think this is less likely.

It is slightly more conceivable that they might never gain HS2 services. It's even more conceivable that HS2 may do something like extend the proposed Preston terminator to run all stations to Carlisle and terminate there.

A sense a Forum Meet in the offing with all this hat eating being threatened!

Do they do chocolate hats?

 

[The Ham]

Unicorn Based Solution.

...or HSUK to use its other name...

 

[Bald Rick]

Oxenholme (as a junction for the Windermere branch) is a prime holiday destination and removing direct services, at least in summer, would mean even more cars in the National Park. Of the stations between Preston and Carlisle, it probably has the best justification for direct services from London of the lot as a result. Having said that, it would to me be equally acceptable to remove the stop from the HS2 services but also extend *all* Windermere branch services back to Preston (or ideally Manchester Airport). As there needs to be a change anyway to get into the Park, as long as it remains as one change only (and is well-timed) that's fine.

+1 for that. In my regular trips up and down the WCML Oxenholme, and to a lesser extent Penrith, do great trade to / from London. Particularly first class at weekends it seems.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ps - overcrowding is worse because the service is more popular, and that is because it is better!

Part of it is caused by price-dumped fares which really should be increased a bit until the capacity is there. I maintain no Advances should ever be sold on any train that will have all seats taken as a matter of course.

 

[Tetchytyke]

We aren't getting "arsey", we're pointing out how the vast majority of your arguments are fallacious.

That comment was directed at that person.

I'm intetested in @Bald Rick and @The Planner's views as it's intetesting to hear the other side. You too. It is three years since I came back north.

I still don't think having to stand from Watford to Euston justifies the expense though!

 

[Bald Rick]

That comment was directed at that person.

I'm intetested in @Bald Rick and @The Planner's views as it's intetesting to hear the other side. You too. It is three years since I came back north.

I still don't think having to stand from Watford to Euston justifies the expense though!

It’s the people that stand from Preston that I’m worried about (and theres plenty of them on some trains).

 

[Train Maniac]

Since about 1917 - (though one of my drivers , wrongly signalled out of Platfrom 9 way back - made a break for freedom on his 6 car 501 unit - good man realised he was going the wrong way onto the fast lines and accelerated - cleared the throat but rolled to an undignified stand off the juice - pushed back in by an engine and had another go. Known for the rest of his career as "Fast line Phil" !)

I digress ....But a good tale from the real world.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!
That sounds like it was fun!
I must say, this thread is making for an interesting read and im not actually up to date yet....

I personally am niether here nor there.
If they got the whole project one then i would consider it worthwhile. London Euston to to Birmingham though? Well im smart enough not to completely dismiss it judging by the amount of back and forth going on.
If it was up to me i would certainly think about stringing up the wires between London Marylebone and Birmingham Moor Street for starters.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That comment was directed at that person.

Ah, apologies, I thought it was wider than that.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Oxenholme (as a junction for the Windermere branch) is a prime holiday destination and removing direct services, at least in summer, would mean even more cars in the National Park.

There's a three hour gap in the middle of the day in the down direction (1108 to 1408) at Oxenholme and Penrith in the up direction has one direct train between 10am and 5pm. Even Lancaster has gaps.

Maybe I'm cynical but I can't see DfT letting places like Kendal or Penrith slow down their shiny trains. Look at France to see how stations fare away from the LGVs.

 

[Tetchytyke]

It’s the people that stand from Preston that I’m worried about (and theres plenty of them on some trains).

Fair point, but Virgin managed to squeeze in extras to Blackpool to stop Open Access. Im sure they could squeeze more in.

Preston has a terrible service. It's forgotten about because of Manchester. I don't think HS2 would change that. Same with Liverpool.

And I've stood to Preston before now too (thanks to those bloody electronic reservations).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Fair point, but Virgin managed to squeeze in extras to Blackpool to stop Open Access. Im sure they could squeeze more in.

Preston has a terrible service. It's forgotten about because of Manchester. I don't think HS2 would change that. Same with Liverpool.

And I've stood to Preston before now too (thanks to those bloody electronic reservations).

I think Preston has an adequate London service (1tph fast, 1tph via Brum). The gap on that stretch is *Crewe* to points north, which sorely needs another TPH. The thing that's *really* inadequate is the capacity on TPE services.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It’s the people that stand from Preston that I’m worried about (and theres plenty of them on some trains).

Actually that does bring up one thing that worries me a little.... I don't think there's any doubt that HS1 phase 1/2a will, thanks to the shorter journey times, attract many more passengers travelling between London and stations north of Crewe on the WCML. The better likely connectivity on the Southern WCML will doubtless also add new passengers doing journeys like Preston-Watford and Lancaster-Milton Keynes etc. But there won't be any new capacity on the WCML North of Crewe.

Phase 2b is likely to do much the same thing on the ECML North of York. On the WCML it may relieve pressure between Crewe and Wigan, but will likely further increase passenger numbers on the WCML North of Wigan.

Presumably something is going to have to give at some point. But what? Maybe the DfT will figure in good time that the Government will need to invest in capacity improvements on those stretches of line, but I haven't seen any indication yet that the Government has thought about that?

 

[Aictos]

...none of which is remotely as extensive as was promised.

A bit like HS2 I'll wager.

Don't ask why people are against HS2 and then get arsey when we say why we are.

Don't start backtracking now, YOU said HS2 is damaging to rail investment yet when I point out that rail investment is still going on with the network you suddenly decide to turn a blind eye to the truth!

The reason why the Electrification programmes have all been cut back to less then what was originally promised is nothing to do with HS2 but why let a good rant get in the way?

It's to do with the fact that Network Rail and the DfT went over budget with the GWML Electification which had a knock on effect on other schemes if the GWML schemes actually stayed well within budget then I can't see the other schemes being cut back.

 

[Tetchytyke]

YOU said HS2 is damaging to rail investment yet when I point out that rail investment is still going on with the network you suddenly decide to turn a blind eye to the truth!

Except it isn't. It's been cut back for financial reasons because HS2 is now already approaching double the original estimated cost and construction is yet to begin.

Funnily HS2 smashing its budget to smithereens doesn't seem to be thesame issue.

 

[underbank]

Oxenholme (as a junction for the Windermere branch) is a prime holiday destination and removing direct services, at least in summer, would mean even more cars in the National Park. Of the stations between Preston and Carlisle, it probably has the best justification for direct services from London of the lot as a result. Having said that, it would to me be equally acceptable to remove the stop from the HS2 services but also extend *all* Windermere branch services back to Preston (or ideally Manchester Airport). As there needs to be a change anyway to get into the Park, as long as it remains as one change only (and is well-timed) that's fine.

There are also strong user groups on the Lakes Line and S&C which will hopefully be kicking up a fuss about the potential loss of services (or slower services due to stopping at more stations). That's why WCRC provided the free trains on the Windermere line when Northern stopped them due to the May timetable fiasco.

At the moment, North Lancashire/Cumbria stations have a good service to London - they're not going to be happy to accept less frequent, or slower services, or having to change. Taking away services or increasing journey times is never going to be popular and doesn't help garner support for HS2!

If Preston becomes the regional hub for high speed trains, then the WCML north of Preston will get a lot busier as all the Furness line, the Windermere line, the Morecambe line and the Leeds/Skipton trains from the Bentham line will all have to carry on down the WCML to Preston instead of stopping at Lancaster/Oxenholme (Windermere line) which act as current termini for those services. Can the WCML between Preston and Lancaster carry all those Sprinters as well as the TPE from Man Airport to Scotland, as well as freight and as well as the High Speed London<>Scotland services? I don't think it has the capacity on the line between Preston and Lancaster/Oxenholme. People having to change twice, i.e. firstly at Lancaster/Oxenholme to TPE and then again at Preston, isn't acceptable.

 

[liam456]

I don't think HS2 blowing through its budget is much of a point; pretty much all infrastructure projects of a comparable scale end up being overbudget. I don't get why those guys at HM Treasury come up with a budget, then just add an extra 20% on! They might find themselves being accurate for once!

 

[Aictos]

Except it isn't. It's been cut back for financial reasons because HS2 is now already approaching double the original estimated cost and construction is yet to begin.

Funnily HS2 smashing its budget to smithereens doesn't seem to be thesame issue.

Wrong again on both accounts and HS2 IS starting construction unless you think that the work at Euston and Birmingham is fantasy?

GWML HAS gone over budget which is why it HAS meant the others had have to cut back on their schemes as the money has gone on the GWML scheme not to mention that until Network Rail prove they can deliver on budget, future schemes past the ones already being done are more at risk then HS2 will make them at risk.

Still as you like to rant and rave about HS2 being a disaster despite others telling you that your points are null and void as well as why, you go ahead and bury your head in the sands....

 

[Ianno87]

Preston has a terrible service. It's forgotten about because of Manchester. I don't think HS2 would change that. Same with Liverpool.

You mean the HS2 that will add an extra hourly fast train to each of Preston and Liverpool, but not to Manchester? That one?

 

[The Ham]

Except it isn't. It's been cut back for financial reasons because HS2 is now already approaching double the original estimated cost and construction is yet to begin.

Funnily HS2 smashing its budget to smithereens doesn't seem to be thesame issue.

Do you have any evidence to back this up?

Of you look at the NR accounts for the last financial year they have spent circa £4bn on Enhancements (this is in addition to their other spending). This is more than at any time since 2009.

Since 2009 they have spent about £25bn on Enhancements (again in addition to their other spend).

Where's your evidence of this cut back?

 

[Aictos]

Do you have any evidence to back this up?

Of you look at the NR accounts for the last financial year they have spent circa £4bn on Enhancements (this is in addition to their other spending). This is more than at any time since 2009.

Since 2009 they have spent about £25bn on Enhancements (again in addition to their other spend).

Where's your evidence of this cut back?

Funny how the accounts back up that rail investment is ongoing and hasn't been affected by HS2 but of course these anti HS2 lot know better...

 

[agbrs_Jack]

long-suffering commuter towns like Congleton can get the service that they need and deserve.

Wooo! About time it is too!

But that is unlikely to happen as completely as you suggest. As I have commented elsewhere, there will still be a big demand for WCML expresses to/from places not served by HS2. Places like Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Rugby, Milton Keynes & Watford Jn. Most people are not going to use connecting services (or drive to somewhere like Crewe "New") when they can get to their destinations by direct (albeit slower) services.

HS2 removes the faster services from the main lines (eg: Manchester-Stoke-Brum/London) and makes capacity for 'semi-fast' services.
I would think something like: Man Picc, Stockport, (Cheadle/Poynton?), Macclesfield, Congleton, Stoke, Tamworth (maybe another Trent Valley station), Rugby, MK, Watford, Euston.
and similarly: Man Picc, Stockport, (Cheadle/Poynton?), Macclesfield, Congleton, Stoke, (Stone?), Stafford, Wolves, (a couple of the local stops), Birmingham NS.

These would increase connections and provide more direct services from more stations and are possible if HS2 is done right.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Where's your evidence of this cut back?

When GW electrification gets to Bristol Temple Meads and Swansea get back to me.

The MML electrification is now going all the way to, er, Kettering.

Sounds like a cut to me!

I don't think HS2 blowing through its budget is much of a point; pretty much all infrastructure projects of a comparable scale end up being overbudget.

The original estimate was £40bn, now it's £75bn and construction hasn't even started. How much will the final bill be? Being Nostradamus, I'll join in the hat eating if we get change from £150bn, and that's taking into account the proposed reduction in build quality.

I think it IS relevant because the business case was developed on the lower price. If they can't stick to the lower price then maybe it's not viable.

What seems to be happening is that the developers are pushing it through on a hopelessly optimistic (and borderline disingenuous) estimate and then shrugging afterwards in the ultimate sunk-cost fallacy.

For me, there are too many ifs, buts and maybes in the proposals to ever get behind them. The documents for phases 2 and 3 are littered with "we hope" and "our ambition is". My ambition is to marry Emily Browning, it doesn't nean it'll happen.

I'm happy to be proven wrong if people can give actual concrete examples of what WILL happen, not what might happen if all the stars align. Given that HS2 haven't even decided how frequent and how fast the trains will be, I'm all ears.

And before you say "we don't know yet", the first rule of anything is to plan exactly how you will use the new toy before you put the cash down.