Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

[EM2]

I still refuse to believe the WCML is full.

I'll set you the same challenge that I set PR1Berske a while ago.
Download the Timetable Planning Rules from the Network Rail website.
Open up Real Time Trains for a whole day's movements from Euston.
Get some graph paper.
Plot all those movements on a graph, following all the rules, and then show us the results.
If you can find capacity, apply for a very well paid job in operational planning management.

 

[underbank]

First train South from Preston to london on a Sunday is 11am. Doesn't matter how fast it is, it's ridiculously late for first train of the day and nothing to do with capacity - completely useless for people wanting a "day trip" to the capital which is a disgrace in this modern 7 day world. People keep going on about freight - why can't they be shifted more to the quiet parts of the day/week, i.e. overnight and Sundays? Building a new line without proper reform is crazy - it just perpetuates the poor working practices from a bygone age.

 

[EM2]

First train South from Preston to london on a Sunday is 11am. Doesn't matter how fast it is, it's ridiculously late for first train of the day and nothing to do with capacity - completely useless for people wanting a "day trip" to the capital which is a disgrace in this modern 7 day world. People keep going on about freight - why can't they be shifted more to the quiet parts of the day/week, i.e. overnight and Sundays? Building a new line without proper reform is crazy - it just perpetuates the poor working practices from a bygone age.

Question - is the market there for an earlier departure?
As for freight, it has as much right as every other service to use the railway. And freight has time and cost pressures too. If the ship with the containers docks at 11am on Wednesday, why should the customer have to pay extra port charges for their containers which won't be picked up until 8pm?

 

[si404]

First train South from Preston to london on a Sunday is 11am.

People keep going on about freight - why can't they be shifted more to the quiet parts of the day/week, i.e. overnight and Sundays?

Maybe the problem in the first sentence of your post is due to the 'solution' in the third?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

First train South from Preston to london on a Sunday is 11am. Doesn't matter how fast it is, it's ridiculously late for first train of the day and nothing to do with capacity - completely useless for people wanting a "day trip" to the capital which is a disgrace in this modern 7 day world. People keep going on about freight - why can't they be shifted more to the quiet parts of the day/week, i.e. overnight and Sundays? Building a new line without proper reform is crazy - it just perpetuates the poor working practices from a bygone age.

That's because the railway needs engineering access to the railway late Sat early Sun to keep it in good shape for intensive use during the week.
It's also why the WCML shuts up shop most bank holiday weekends for an even longer maintenance period for bigger jobs.
HS2 will give some valuable alternatives for this sort of engineering work, and in any case will be built with bi-di signalling to keep trains moving.
So (eg) Preston-London services will become more reliable than now, and might even have a service before 1100 on Sundays!

Freight, by the way, is often as time-sensitive as passenger trains, and they pay for their paths on the network.
Try telling the "just in time" brigade they can just use slower routes and quiet times of day.
The WCML is largely a 2-track railway north of Crewe, so all types of traffic have to be accommodated.
I do object to single class 66s struggling up Grayrigg, Shap and Beattock with big container trains though, this seems to be needless capacity-eating.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not the 87s?

Errr, probably, my memory falls me on that!

It's quite rare these days to pass freight too. If freight is the issue, build a line for freight at a fraction of the cost of HS2. It isn't.

It isn’t rare at all, unless you travel on a Sunday. Or on a very specific or short part of the route. South of Crewe there are roughly two freights each way per hour. And whilst you could build a freight only line for a fraction of the cost, tha fraction is likely to be in the region of 8/10 to 9/10, and would not carry anywhere as nearly a smuch traffic.

As far as I'm aware, the DC lines don't interact with the WCML at all save for the Euston throat and a connection to the Down Fast at Watford Junction.

correct!

They really don't. Not a single person will have ever not gone from Preston to London or vice versa because it takes 30 minutes too long.

That’s a huge claim! Have you spoken to every single person who might want to travel between Preston and London?

Funnily enough I have just spoken to my mother in law who always drives from (near) Preston to (near) London as it is quicker than the train and having to change. However if the train was half an hour quicker, she’d be much more likely to get the train. That’s one person from a sample size of one. Accepting that the sample may not be typical of everyone who wants to travel on that route, it does show that a half hour improvement in journey time will encourage at least one more person to use the train. And I strongly suspect it will be more than one.

(In other news, when the West Coast upgrade was completed, and Manchester was 30 minutes closer to London, passenger numbers between London and Manchester trebled in a few years).

Given we've established that a 120mph railway is 9% cheaper than a High Speed railway, and I would guess that it is unlikely that a 80mph railway would be much cheaper (if at all) than that, the cost savings aren't that great.

To be fair I’m not sure we have established that 9% figure, as that is overly precise, however the point is well made.

I'll set you the same challenge that I set PR1Berske a while ago.
Download the Timetable Planning Rules from the Network Rail website.
Open up Real Time Trains for a whole day's movements from Euston.
Get some graph paper.
Plot all those movements on a graph, following all the rules, and then show us the results.
If you can find capacity, apply for a very well paid job in operational planning management.

 

[The Planner]

I still refuse to believe the WCML is full. Anyone who's spent a reasonable amount of time using it knows it can't be. Fast line trains pass surprisingly few trains on the slow lines. The number of trains per hour from many stations is not high. The DC lines from Harrow and Wealdstone to Watford Junction are only 3 trains an hour. For tracks alongside this supposedly full railway that's pitiful, but also explains the real "problem", which is everyone south of Milton Keynes wants a fast train to London. The actual problem is so many people wanting or needing to commute to London.

DC lines will be going to 4tph soon, but how do you solve south of Harrow and Wealdstone once LUL are involved?

 

[Clip]

Funnily enough I have just spoken to my mother in law who always drives from (near) Preston to (near) London as it is quicker than the train and having to change. However if the train was half an hour quicker, she’d be much more likely to get the train. That’s one person from a sample size of one. Accepting that the sample may not be typical of everyone who wants to travel on that route, it does show that a half hour improvement in journey time will encourage at least one more person to use the train. And I strongly suspect it will be more than one.

If im still travelling up north when this line gets built ill be more than happy at saving an hour off my travels per day and can put that time to use with my misses and friends. Win Win.

 

[underbank]

That's because the railway needs engineering access to the railway late Sat early Sun to keep it in good shape for intensive use during the week.

That's the generic reason for the poor Sunday service but doesn't seem to apply in this case. There are Euston to Manchester/Liverpool services running a couple of hours earlier and a Glasgow to Manchester service a couple of hours earlier, so most of the WCML is clear of blockades. My original comment of saving 30 minutes being irrelevant when there are no trains still stands. Same with how the Man airport services start too late and finish too early for lots of people in the North West. The rail industry doesn't seem to realise that not everyone is a commuter wanting to travel M-F at peak times and does a very poor job in some cases for other types of passenger. With that attitude, there's no guarantee that HS2 will improve things for those passengers who already don't fit into the rail industry's "preferred passenger" box. If HS2 means that we will be moving towards a 24/7 rail system then I'm all for it, but I suspect it won't be.

 

[Lucan]

When HS2 is cancelled, as it will, I'll be on this thread with a spring in my step and song in my heart.

That song might turn into Wagner's Götterdämmerung*, because there will then be intense pressure to build a Hyperloop along the alignment. And Hyperloop will have been spared most of the planning costs too : the taxpayers will have alread paid for that and it will just be a windfall for Hyperloop. With snake-oil salesman Elon Musk wheeled in to talk to the media and politicos (who are technically clueless), it will be even harder to stop.

* Sounds best if you don't translate from the German

 

[6Gman]

It's quite rare these days to pass freight too. If freight is the issue, build a line for freight at a fraction of the cost of HS2. It isn't.

Not my experience. On the 90 minute journey from Crewe to Euston not unusual to pass 4 or 5 * , and then note 2 or 3 standing at Wembley - presumably waiting for a chance to venture onto the Down Slow.

* And to overtake 1 or 2 at Rugby, waiting for a gap on the Up Slow.

 

[6Gman]

They really don't. Not a single person will have ever not gone from Preston to London or vice versa because it takes 30 minutes too long.



Which as you say benefited places other than London. HS2 will do nothing for anywhere north of Birmingham.

On the first, if that's the case why does custom increase when journey times are reduced? (I go to London more often now it's 90 minutes rather than 110-120")

On the second, how can you say that a railway between Birmingham and Manchester "will do nothing for anywhere north of Birmingham"? Just don't make sense!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I still refuse to believe the WCML is full. Anyone who's spent a reasonable amount of time using it knows it can't be. Fast line trains pass surprisingly few trains on the slow lines. The number of trains per hour from many stations is not high. The DC lines from Harrow and Wealdstone to Watford Junction are only 3 trains an hour. For tracks alongside this supposedly full railway that's pitiful, but also explains the real "problem", which is everyone south of Milton Keynes wants a fast train to London. The actual problem is so many people wanting or needing to commute to London.

WCML capacity would be massively improved if, for example, people commuted northbound to Milton Keynes instead of going to London from, say, Hemel Hempstead. It'd be quicker and more pleasant

How do you propose that to happen?

By the way, more people commute into MK than out of it already.

 

[underbank]

On the first, if that's the case why does custom increase when journey times are reduced?

How do we know the reason is the journey time reduction? What about the increasing population? What about increased air fares? What about the horrendous traffic congestion around Manchester over the last few years which has now spread to the M6 meaning people are looking for alternatives to the roads? What about Manchester's regeneration and all the new firms who've opened offices there. It's impossible to pick one possible reason and claim it's the only reason.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

How do we know the reason is the journey time reduction? What about the increasing population? What about increased air fares? What about the horrendous traffic congestion around Manchester over the last few years which has now spread to the M6 meaning people are looking for alternatives to the roads? What about Manchester's regeneration and all the new firms who've opened offices there. It's impossible to pick one possible reason and claim it's the only reason.

Did the population of Manchester suddenly and dramatically increase during the couple of years after the WCML upgrade completed and journeys were suddenly faster, before levelling off over the following 10 years?

 

[PeterC]

How do you propose that to happen?

By the way, more people commute into MK than out of it already.

The thing about commuting to any new town is that they have all been designed to disperse emplpyment around the perimiter with an underlying ethos that everybody lives and works within the town. A central station does little for incoming commuters. In London my destination station was always within walking distance of my work.

 

[Clip]

What about increased air fares?

Looking on skyscanner for monday morning and the earliest departure is 0700 and the return seems to be 1905 which is pretty late if you finish at 1600-1700 and the air fares are reasonable in comparison to the train. However - it seems the only flights are to Heathrow so a lot who may use these flights would the still have a bit of a trek across town to their place of work in the city and docklands let alone the trip into Manchester airport anyway so that could be an extra hour each way added to your journey or you generally turn up and go with the train and its 2 hr -ish time each way and 3 departures an hour you can pick and choose when you go and come back. generally the train wins which is probably why there are so few flights now - not the price.

 

[PR1Berske]

For the good of my sanity, I'm going to "unwatch" this thread, for a while. Just to stop going back to it like a habit or routine.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

High speed rail in France is certainly working - the current edition of "Today's Rlys Europe" has the first full year traffic figures for the 'Sud Europe Atlantique' LGV since opening in July 2017. Paris to Bordeaux passengers have increased by 70% and Paris to Toulouse by 60% - the latter is very commendable as the journey time is c 4hrs 15mins and still needing to use the classic line from Bordeaux to Toulouse. One third of passengers were won from other modes. In Spain the very succesful Madrid - Barcelona AVE services have seen year on year passenger increases and the airline business between the two cities virtually destroyed.

 

[liam456]

For the good of my sanity, I'm going to "unwatch" this thread, for a while. Just to stop going back to it like a habit or routine.

Awwwh! I think a lot of us will miss you, PR1Berske! Come back soon!

 

[MarkyT]

That song might turn into Wagner's Götterdämmerung*, because there will then be intense pressure to build a Hyperloop along the alignment. And Hyperloop will have been spared most of the planning costs too : the taxpayers will have alread paid for that and it will just be a windfall for Hyperloop. With snake-oil salesman Elon Musk wheeled in to talk to the media and politicos (who are technically clueless), it will be even harder to stop.

Hype loop is utterly unproven technology. The vacuum tube element is just batsh*t crazy fruitloopery of the highest order, although some of the companies involved might develop some useful 'alternative supplier' maglev and linear induction motor capability as a spin off. I'm sure maglev interests will attempt to exploit a failure if it happened, but all that was studied to the nth degree years ago. Maglev, although potentially a little faster and maybe saving some whole life maintenance costs by removal of wheel/rail friction from the equation, did not offer the same BCR as a rail based solution because it requires far more guideway to serve the same number and spread of destinations, as the mode is clearly totally incompatible with through running onto the conventional rail network, and would screw up the phased construction strategy. Conventional rail compatibility is the basis of nearly all incremental European HS network development over the last four decades.

 

[PR1Berske]

Awwwh! I think a lot of us will miss you, PR1Berske! Come back soon!

Haha, well I've not left the forum, this isn't a flounce! Just trying to stop returning to this thread quite so often.

 

[mmh]

I'll set you the same challenge that I set PR1Berske a while ago.
Download the Timetable Planning Rules from the Network Rail website.
Open up Real Time Trains for a whole day's movements from Euston.
Get some graph paper.
Plot all those movements on a graph, following all the rules, and then show us the results.
If you can find capacity, apply for a very well paid job in operational planning management.

Ah, the planning challenge again - "replicate the status quo, and look! It looks exactly the same as now!"

 

[mmh]

Firstly, there will be people who wouldn't be inclined to go to London because they can't get their early enough without getting up earlier, or wouldn't go because their train gets them home too late for when they need to get up the next day.

Secondly either HS2 is saving 30 minutes or there's no benefit North of Birmingham, the two statements can't both be true.

Both can be true because a 30 minute saving on the journey time to London is largely irrelevant (and won't come without disadvantages either)

 

[mmh]

Indeed, there's plenty which could reasonably be leveled at HS2 as being negative, however you need to consider what happens without it or what the alternitve is to cope with the pressures which it is trying to solve.

For instance the environmental impact:
- if we do nothing would likely mean more traffic congestion adding more pollutants into the atmosphere. Quite possibly with more traffic looking to use local road rather than Motorways, which could lead to more traffic driving through Chiltern villages (probably not from further afield, but probably more local traffic which would find the hop one junction trips that they make aren't quicker anymore)

- the alternative may include a new motorway (it would probably need to be 2 lanes in each direction) which would at least require a corridor of 25.7m (edge of hard shoulder to edge of hard shoulder, Vs 22m for HS2), however chances are it would need to be upgraded to 3 lanes which would widen the corridor to 33m.

Why would not building HS2 have any effect on traffic driving through Chiltern villages, and why is the alternative a motorway on the same corridor? HS2 won't serve anywhere between London and Birmingham.

 

[JamesT]

Why would not building HS2 have any effect on traffic driving through Chiltern villages, and why is the alternative a motorway on the same corridor? HS2 won't serve anywhere between London and Birmingham.

As has been repeatedly noted, HS2 takes the express trains off the legacy routes which frees up capacity for more trains which do stop between London and Birmingham.
If we don’t implement something to provide more capacity, then the obvious alternative for many people is to drive instead. That directly leads to the additional traffic and pollution in Chiltern villages.
A motorway seems somewhat unlikely, but it is a potential answer to what to do instead of HS2 to provide additional transport capacity. As the charge from the antis appears to be that HS2 has been presented as the answer to all ills without any consideration of any alternatives.

 

[mmh]

Firstly, there will be people who wouldn't be inclined to go to London because they can't get their early enough without getting up earlier, or wouldn't go because their train gets them home too late for when they need to get up the next day.

I just don't accept that argument. If you need to be in London you'll get up 30 minutes earlier; if the 30 minute saving is to generate new traffic then the argument that HS2 is to satisfy natural growth falls over if it's actually to generate new traffic by its existence.

 

[mmh]

As has been repeatedly noted, HS2 takes the express trains off the legacy routes which frees up capacity for more trains which do stop between London and Birmingham.
If we don’t implement something to provide more capacity, then the obvious alternative for many people is to drive instead. That directly leads to the additional traffic and pollution in Chiltern villages.

Where are these people driving to and from, and what were they doing before they switched to driving?

A motorway seems somewhat unlikely, but it is a potential answer to what to do instead of HS2 to provide additional transport capacity. As the charge from the antis appears to be that HS2 has been presented as the answer to all ills without any consideration of any alternatives.

 

[EM2]

Ah, the planning challenge again - "replicate the status quo, and look! It looks exactly the same as now!"

If there's a better way, surely you'll find it? After all, the WCML isn't full...

 

[mmh]

If there's a better way, surely you'll find it? After all, the WCML isn't full...

Yes. Step 1: throw away the constraints and start again.