HS2: Have we passed the point of no return?

[bringbackcrouc]

with Grayling’s position looking less and less secure, there may need to be a new SoS who presumably will need to be convinced of the merits of HS2.

I know the treasury are far more important in these decisions.

However, I was wondering if the amount spent already and the amount which would need to be spent of the project was cancelled me that it is now effectively impossible to cancel st least to Birmingham.

 

[higthomas]

with Grayling’s position looking less and less secure, there may need to be a new SoS who presumably will need to be convinced of the merits of HS2.

I know the treasury are far more important in these decisions.

However, I was wondering if the amount spent already and the amount which would need to be spent of the project was cancelled me that it is now effectively impossible to cancel st least to Birmingham.

Although I support HS2, I'd hope politicians/the treasury are well aware of the gambler's fallacy. Given the amount t of money left to spendi it shouldn't be guaranteed.

But I hope we do get it built.

 

[AM9]

Although I support HS2, I'd hope politicians/the treasury are well aware of the gambler's fallacy. Given the amount t of money left to spendi it shouldn't be guaranteed.

But I hope we do get it built.

Well the gambler's fallacy doesn't apply here. That concept assumes that past bets are investments and indicators of the future when in fact there are a succession of random events. HS2 has a positive usiness case that has improved in its own right since 2009 through traffic growth alone. Add to that the fact that most of the budgeted capital spent to date makes the business case more positive, so cancelling would be even less justified (on a pure economic basis) when the benefits remain the same.

 

[Bald Rick]

Also this isn’t a Secretary of State decision. It’s a cabinet decision.

Just as well that we have a ‘strong and stable’ cabinet then!

 

[GreatAuk]

I think now they've actually started building the negative headlines around the cost of winding it all up and putting all spending to date on a bonfire will put the government off cancelling it fully.

However given the negative press it is still receiving currently I wouldn't be surprised if some 'cost cutting' were brought in to act as a short term distraction for some other large national news. The likely outcome of the cost cutting being increased costs and HS2 being handicapped for decades until it gets fixed at further great expense is neither here nor there.

I'm pretty sure it will get to Birmingham, and probably Crewe now. However, wouldn't be surprising if the Manchester branch gets delayed to coincide with HS3 (which may or may not ever be built....), and I think the Birmingham-Leeds section is most likely to get cut in its entirity, as it seems to be the part of HS2 with the most poor compromises, from my point of view.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Also this isn’t a Secretary of State decision. It’s a cabinet decision.
Just as well that we have a ‘strong and stable’ cabinet then!

It's a bi-(tri-?)partisan project.
There would probably have to be a serious national financial meltdown before it was cancelled.
But who knows what our elected representatives are capable of at the moment.

 

[Busaholic]

The worst scenario is that billions are spent at Euston and in Birmingham, with the huge disruption to rail travellers, only for the project to then be cancelled. Given this country's well-deserved recent reputation for opting for the worst possible outcomes, I have no doubt this will come to pass. When the true extent of NHS, care provision and education underfunding grabs the attention that the Brexit nonsense currently has, it will be dropped, I have no doubt of that whatever, so better to do it now in order to at least save the odd few tens of billions, which we are going to be desperate for.

 

[DarloRich]

However, I was wondering if the amount spent already and the amount which would need to be spent of the project was cancelled me that it is now effectively impossible to cancel st least to Birmingham.

i think HS2 phase 1 could not be easily cancelled. Beyond Birmingham is up for debate!

 

[matacaster]

I suspect that London - Birmingham (ie London commuter belt extension, which I have always thought was the only bit which politicians were interested in) will get built. However, Phase 2 to me always looked like a non-starter and will, in my opinion, be scrapped - probably to coincide with the general election (unless one happens before then!).

Perhaps the Central Railway freight only plan might have been a cheaper alternative to provide extra capacity for passengers by removing much freight from WCML. However, freight only railways don't capture the public's imagination like SPEED and (later) CAPACITY.

 

[camflyer]

It's a bi-(tri-?)partisan project.
There would probably have to be a serious national financial meltdown before it was cancelled.
But who knows what our elected representatives are capable of at the moment.

It also has the support of the rail industry, rail unions and the city councils along the route. Billions have already been spent on planning, design and land. To cancel the whole thing now would should absolutely no return on that spending. I suspect that it is too late to scrap Phase 1

The next option is only going as far as Birmingham or kicking Phase 2 into the long grass. I can see the political attraction of doing this but it would only perpetuate the complaint that HS2 was only about getting between London and Birmingham quicker. The real value in HS2 is in the capacity it adds to routes north of Birmingham. Cancelling that would be a travesty.

Also, if the Treasury's hands are on this and they are worried about the cost then I can't see how they would then divert the budget into other rail schemes, the funding would just be lost forever.

 

[Gems]

Let's be honest here.

This country has a history of 'plug pulling' From NHS computer systems to London garden bridges. We have a political system where people like Grayling can cost the taxpayer zillions and are accountable to nobody. So don't let anybody think that pulling the plug on HS2 would be any different.

 

[deltic]

It will be very easy to pull the plug on HS2 Phase 1 - a large proportion of the money has to date been spent on land purchase and demolitions and could be partially recouped if the project is cancelled and the land sold. Very little actual construction work has been done.

 

[bringbackcrouc]

It will be very easy to pull the plug on HS2 Phase 1 - a large proportion of the money has to date been spent on land purchase and demolitions and could be partially recouped if the project is cancelled and the land sold. Very little actual construction work has been done.

How much physical construction has to be done before we have passed the HS2 rubicon?

 

[camflyer]

It will be very easy to pull the plug on HS2 Phase 1 - a large proportion of the money has to date been spent on land purchase and demolitions and could be partially recouped if the project is cancelled and the land sold. Very little actual construction work has been done.

It would be interesting to know what the cancellation clauses say in the contracts already signed.

 

[diffident]

It would be interesting to know what the cancellation clauses say in the contracts already signed.

That's the key point, the cost of cancelling could be very very expensive. So much so that pulling out now would be financially and politically prohibitive.

 

[deltic]

It would be interesting to know what the cancellation clauses say in the contracts already signed.

I assume standard conditions apply as set out in
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/requ.../6/FOI15 1369 contract termination clause.pdf

In essesence HS2 has to pay fair and reasonable compensation for work-in-progress at the time of cancellation but that does not include loss of profits or any consequential losses.

 

[JamesT]

Though if we do get an economic slowdown, it's widely considered that the best response is for the government to provide an economic stimulus by spending on infrastructure. Which would be a reason to keep going rather than cancel it.

 

[Ken H]

Let's be honest here.

This country has a history of 'plug pulling' From NHS computer systems to London garden bridges. We have a political system where people like Grayling can cost the taxpayer zillions and are accountable to nobody. So don't let anybody think that pulling the plug on HS2 would be any different.

1st channel tunnel?

 

[jfisher21]

I suspect we will get Phase 1 + Crewe. I expect the new line from there to Manchester will get scrapped, just use the existing line!

As for the eastern arm, I expect them to scrap that too! Too much of a detour via birmingham airport. But you never know .....

 

[NotATrainspott]

The primary problem with pulling the plug on HS2 is that it won't actually fool anyone. Plenty of major nationwide infrastructure schemes have been delayed or cancelled, but unless there's a fundamental shift which makes them unnecessary, they have a tendency to come back with a vengeance. The most important pinch-points along the route, where there's the least scope for changes to be made, would be drowned in a sea of uncertainty as people didn't know if the scheme would come back or not. For instance, the people living on Wells House Road will almost certainly not want to return to their homes because they may well just get kicked out again in future. Just letting the scheme go ahead means there will be a date when it's all sorted and the uncertainty is gone. For a lot of people along the route, it's the construction process rather than the end result which causes them the most pain, so anything that extends the earliest date construction can be done for good is not going to help them much.

 

[w1bbl3]

The critical clause will be "the Consultant completes Work Packages ordered before the notification" which is something for the legal teams to argue over later in terms of what comprises an order and work package scope.

Half built bridges or tunnels won't happen but equally completed bridges or tunnels to nowhere will be politically unacceptable, so these things if cancelled end up in negotiation phase with the contractors around how much they'll get paid to not do something.

 

[Chester1]

I suspect we will get Phase 1 + Crewe. I expect the new line from there to Manchester will get scrapped, just use the existing line!

As for the eastern arm, I expect them to scrap that too! Too much of a detour via birmingham airport. But you never know .....

I agree about Crewe, I have never understood the view that it will never get past Birmingham. The extension to Crewe would be great value for money and obtain most of the benefit of the Western branch. If phase 1 is built then phase 2a certainly will be.

 

[6Gman]

I suspect we will get Phase 1 + Crewe. I expect the new line from there to Manchester will get scrapped, just use the existing line!

As for the eastern arm, I expect them to scrap that too! Too much of a detour via birmingham airport. But you never know .....

Which is already full!

 

[Mathew S]

I think, at this point, cancelling would be politically suicidal. Especially since they would end up doing it at the same time as spending an arm and a leg to get CrossPurpLizLineRail up and running.
The only way, politically, I think HS2 would be canned is if there were some massive, and I mean massive, change in the circumstances of the country that dramatically reduced demand for rail travel e.g. mass unemployment, currency depreciation, economic recession, etc.

 

[bramling]

with Grayling’s position looking less and less secure, there may need to be a new SoS who presumably will need to be convinced of the merits of HS2.

I know the treasury are far more important in these decisions.

However, I was wondering if the amount spent already and the amount which would need to be spent of the project was cancelled me that it is now effectively impossible to cancel st least to Birmingham.

I’d say in normal political times yes it would be too much of a political climb down to cancel it now. However in these current times I’d say anything could happen.

I tend to agree with the general view that London to Birmingham will likely happen, perhaps late. I don’t think it will go further than Birmingham for a while though, if ever.

 

[al78]

Although I support HS2, I'd hope politicians/the treasury are well aware of the gambler's fallacy. Given the amount t of money left to spendi it shouldn't be guaranteed.

But I hope we do get it built.

Don't you mean the sunk cost fallacy?

https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-sunk-cost-fallacy/

 

[exile]

I'm of the opinion, and have been for a while, that HS2 won't see the light of day in its original form. I see a lot of examples of the "sunk cost fallacy" above! My current theory is that it will be parked in a siding as part of an emergency budget following a no-deal Brexit.

 

[diffident]

I'm of the opinion, and have been for a while, that HS2 won't see the light of day in its original form. I see a lot of examples of the "sunk cost fallacy" above! My current theory is that it will be parked in a siding as part of an emergency budget following a no-deal Brexit.

I very much doubt it would be parked on the basis of an emergency budget following a no-deal Brexit. In-fact, quite the opposite. The Govt will want to be seen as presenting an image of business as usual, we can crack on, we can deliver big infrastructure projects etc etc.

 

[Geezertronic]

Round by me, they already look to be doing something in Balsall Common, A452, the old Olympia Motorcross track, by Junction 4 of the M6, Birmingham Road, and by Water Orton

 

[MarkyT]

I suspect we will get Phase 1 + Crewe. I expect the new line from there to Manchester will get scrapped, just use the existing line!

As for the eastern arm, I expect them to scrap that too! Too much of a detour via birmingham airport. But you never know .....

Which is already full!

Cheadle Hulme - Stockport - Slade Lane Jn - Piccadilly is very busy indeed and hobbled by flat junction conflicts which would be difficult to solve by grade separation. The new Manchester approach tunnel solves all of this and provides a great fast corridor for future NPR trains as well as the HS2 services.