First Group: General Discussion

[158756]

I think the days of the bus company that does everything (a la NBC) are numbered, at least outside the mets and conurbations. Success is deciding what you do well, then concentrating on that and doing it to the best of your ability. And on that criteria I think the Shires, Herts and Essex aren't doing so badly at all. We all make mistakes (like the Hemel minibus) and it isn't not making the mistake, but then changing it that matters.

If we judge a bus company just by the size and dominance of its operation then First Essex is a success, and indeed until the recent losses, I suspect that was exactly how First Essex was judged. The trouble is that neglect was storing up problems for the future, and they've now hit, and hit hard. A stitch in time . . .

This may be the way forward from the perspective of the big operator's accountants, but it's bad for passengers and bad for overall public transport usage. Another example of why the current deregulated system needs to end, and not just in the big cities.

 

[Anthony ross]

Yes, although interestingly with the addition of the NIBS buses business late last year, which in turn took over Ensign’s Brentwood network a couple of months ago, they’re up to about 140 vehicles and I guess probably a £15m turnover. That’s considerably bigger than Go Ahead
(Hedingham plus Chambers) and now covers pretty much the whole of Essex with a (relatively) modern fleet.

Plus Stephenson’s also has Galloway coaches which is part owned by bill hiron the MD of Stephenson’s

 

[Cesarcollie]

This may be the way forward from the perspective of the big operator's accountants, but it's bad for passengers and bad for overall public transport usage. Another example of why the current deregulated system needs to end, and not just in the big cities.

And in the absence of any new money, what (positive) difference would that make exactly ?

 

[158756]

And in the absence of any new money, what (positive) difference would that make exactly ?

In this instance, an end to the multiple competing operators and the seemingly increasingly common situation of marginal or tendered routes run by random small companies with no through ticketing to the trunk routes.

 

[DragonEast]

Just briefly back to the original purpose of this thread. We know that First's ambition is to get the best deal for their shareholders, and to get on with it. What is something like First Essex worth in its present condition?

 

[Cesarcollie]

In this instance, an end to the multiple competing operators and the seemingly increasingly common situation of marginal or tendered routes run by random small companies with no through ticketing to the trunk routes.

Minimal on the road competition in Essex. Octopus in Southend, Colchester Boroughcard, Essex Saver all provide multi-operator ticketing. I think no through ticketing to trunk routes is largely a red herring, and mostly covered by area tickets where needed.

 

[Cesarcollie]

Just briefly back to the original purpose of this thread. We know that First's ambition is to get the best deal for their shareholders, and to get on with it. What is something like First Essex worth in its present condition?

Good question. Assuming break even net asset value would be the starting point. But with pension liabilities and the need for extensive capex on fleet replacement, probably even less than that. Ultimately, it’s only worth what someone is willing (and able) to pay for it. And there aren’t exactly queues of buyers out there...... (whether in Essex or anywhere else!)

 

[158756]

Minimal on the road competition in Essex. Octopus in Southend, Colchester Boroughcard, Essex Saver all provide multi-operator ticketing. I think no through ticketing to trunk routes is largely a red herring, and mostly covered by area tickets where needed.

A £10 countywide ticket is hardly good value for the length of most bus journeys. Of course though there isn't much interest in making these routes any use to anyone who actually pays for the service.

 

[DragonEast]

Minimal on the road competition in Essex. Octopus in Southend, Colchester Boroughcard, Essex Saver all provide multi-operator ticketing. I think no through ticketing to trunk routes is largely a red herring, and mostly covered by area tickets where needed.

... a plethora of tickets, all with different eligibility, compared to the single travelcard in London. The online maps aren't always clear, and even less so on a mobile phone, on the go.

If it's confusing for passengers it's even more so for the staff. My experience with an Essex Saver illustrates the point: a First driver swearing blind it was "the same" as a First Day, and upon explaining to an independent driver who had "never heard of it" that have it was an Essex County Council ticket promoted in accordance with a scheme published on their website, helpfully informed me (in no uncertain terms) that they are bunch of liars from whom you cannot believe anything and that they always get everything wrong. Alas, the best intentions of mice and men...

 

[Delenn]

First Essex is my local OpCo and I travel a good way across Essex several times a week on First All Essex Day tickets.

There is no doubt that traffic is a big problem. Over the last few weeks, Chelmsford in particular has been a nightmare. I agree with whoever said their stubborn insistence on not cutting longer routes in two causes them big problems. Exhibit A - the 100. This is a 15 minute frequency trunk route from Chelmsford to Lakeside. If you get a problem anywhere, the timings fall to pieces in minutes. Bunching is a regular problem. I heard from some drivers they were planning on splitting the route in two at Basildon in a hope to improve reliability. That would have been a good idea. Yet the new timetable has just tinkered with the timings they can never hold.

I think this demonstrates an attitude from the management not to do what needs to be done. Instead, they tinker with timings and cut evening buses (for example, the 71 northbound losing 2 through services, leaving only 2 left after 6:15). The situation has reached the point that if the 100 is too late, I risk being stranded in Chelmsford for 2 hours - something I don't need after a hard day at work. All those cuts have done is make me less likely to use the bus.

They are trying with cleanliness and the drivers are making a big effort to be friendly (which is much appreciated). There have always been a good core of drivers who will go the extra mile.

Another thing that really annoys me is their seeming inability to put a route branded bus on the correct route. Yesterday for example, a 100 branded bus was on the 8A, and an unbranded one was on the 100. Last month, we had a 100 branded bus on the X10, an X10 branded bus on the 5 and an unbranded bus on the 100. Really, if you can't put the right bus on the right route, don't bother with the branded routes. It just makes you look like a farce.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Looked at on paper Arriva Herts and Shires and Essex have contracted majorly, and they've had longstanding staffing issues in Hemel and Stevenage, and Harlow, and the minibus disaster. BUT their contraction was largely due to withdrawing from the services they didn't do well (the rural links and smaller towns) and concentrating on their interurban network which they can do well. They co-exist with Uno, Red Eagle and Centrebus who have stepped in on less renumerative routes (and Uno's concentration on a student network) and I don't see that as any source of problem, it's what I meant earlier by "sharing the burden". It was mostly a sensible plan/strategy not force of circumstance. I don't think of that as bad business, rather as good business. Ensign and Reading (and numerous of the better local operators, think Lynx and Borderbus in East Anglia) do the same. Back to First Essex who try to do everything, and do it badly. A couple of years ago I feared for the future of Arriva too when they looked like may be they were under threat, but they've come back.

Well, not really looking at it on paper but in reality. A number of acquaintances worked for Arriva Shires and they have remarked about how the business has declined from the late British Bus/early Arriva days.

Also, are First Essex trying to do everything? Surely the closure of Braintree and Clacton highlights are examples of First pulling back from the margins and ceding territory to others and concentrating on their core hubs?

If First Essex just withdrew they'd seem to be well-positioned to pick up business, but I just suspect they'd be very hesitant about the volume urban stuff, just because of the costs and nightmare logistics. That's again what I was thinking about operators that are careful with what they don't do.

Of course, there are some important issues that people may wish to consider. The business will be worth something, even if it has been mismanaged, because it has potential to be better. Remember that the Bolton and Manchester depots were sold despite being part of a loss making business and despite the spectre of franchising. First Essex recorded an operating loss but it was near break-even when you consider that £3.1m were in relation to restructuring, exit costs from Clacton, and the writing off of the old ticket machines. What they then send back to the group (in terms of central overhead - can't see what that might be) then it may be turning a profit. Hence, I don't see First simply withdrawing. Remember that whilst Stephenson's or Ensign can recruit with lower terms and conditions but were they even able to buy an operation, the issue of TUPE would still restrict the ability to affect the cost base.

First Essex is my local OpCo and I travel a good way across Essex several times a week on First All Essex Day tickets.

There is no doubt that traffic is a big problem. Over the last few weeks, Chelmsford in particular has been a nightmare. I agree with whoever said their stubborn insistence on not cutting longer routes in two causes them big problems. Exhibit A - the 100. This is a 15 minute frequency trunk route from Chelmsford to Lakeside. If you get a problem anywhere, the timings fall to pieces in minutes. Bunching is a regular problem. I heard from some drivers they were planning on splitting the route in two at Basildon in a hope to improve reliability. That would have been a good idea. Yet the new timetable has just tinkered with the timings they can never hold.

That does appear to be one of the things that leaps out when you look at Chelmsford. As someone not familiar with the area, it looks like a complex network of cross town services that would be susceptible to congestion. One that caught my eye is the 42 corridor that seems to involve a cross town service AND then extensions to either Stansted or Braintree. Now I appreciate locals may well explain that there's very good reasons for this in terms of passenger flows and certain links. However, it seems like something that combines some clever routeing and maximises resources but may well be a b***er to operate.

 

[DragonEast]

something that combines some clever routeing and maximises resources but may well be a b***er to operate.

The last word! You've just summed up the entire First Essex network.

 

[DD12]

http://forum.midlandred.net/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=4546

I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this news / rumour !!

Latest news from Staff Manager.

No part of First Bus has actually been put up for sale yet.

First Bus is being re-organised into three areas, Scotland, North and South, he said that no-one is sure which area Worcester would be in!

Once this is completed, the areas would be put up for sale either individually, or as a whole. He said that he thought the most likely outcome would be a Pension/Hedge fund company, with the aim of making money.

He also gave some interesting if rather worrying news ,about the pension fund, which means no-one is likely to consider putting in a bid for any part of FirstBus

.

 

[overthewater]

Already know part of that Scotland had been Reorganized into one area last year with Mr Javis controlling it all.

IF the pension fund is that bad could it lead to First defaulting?

 

[Bluebirdscot66]

I happened to look on the first app on the terms and conditions it mentions first bus north limited company no.03261484 and first south limited 03261587.
I don’t understand about pension things but What would it mean if first default on pension

 

[Jordan Adam]

http://forum.midlandred.net/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=4546

I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this news / rumour !!


.

Ignoring the last part most of that is stuff we already know about or has already happened. Firstbus have been operating as FirstBus North and South for quite some time too.

 

[PaulMc7]

Going by the info we have what is everyone's predictions for the sale structure and timeframe? Personally I'm thinking we could be waiting around a year for the sale and I think operations will need to be sold separately as some will be far easier to shift than others

 

[freetoview33]

Going by the info we have what is everyone's predictions for the sale structure and timeframe? Personally I'm thinking we could be waiting around a year for the sale and I think operations will need to be sold separately as some will be far easier to shift than others

Well that is why they are trying to shift it as a package as there some ops that no one would ever buy! Like Somerset even though it is doing better, it will never be profitable. So if it is sold as part of a package I can probably see it being closed down.

 

[PaulMc7]

Well that is why they are trying to shift it as a package as there some ops that no one would ever buy! Like Somerset even though it is doing better, it will never be profitable. So if it is sold as part of a package I can probably see it being closed down.

Yeah I'm just hoping for it to go smoothly so we know what is going on. They've been my main operator for almost all of my life as I'm still only 25. Not easy knowing the biggest operator in my city(Glasgow) is going and nobody knows what we could end up with. As long as it's not council run I'm happy

 

[CD]

Well that is why they are trying to shift it as a package as there some ops that no one would ever buy! Like Somerset even though it is doing better, it will never be profitable. So if it is sold as part of a package I can probably see it being closed down.

Especially as BoS this week increased many singles and returns by up to 25%. Certainly not doing things by halves, its make or break time,

 

[PaulMc7]

Especially as BoS this week increased many singles and returns by up to 25%. Certainly not doing things by halves, its make or break time,

Ouch that's an unnecessarily big increase

 

[Jordan Adam]

Going by the info we have what is everyone's predictions for the sale structure and timeframe? Personally I'm thinking we could be waiting around a year for the sale and I think operations will need to be sold separately as some will be far easier to shift than others

Que the much anticipated "Stagecoach to buy out First" rumour...

Jokes aside i note Go-Ahead have shown further interesting in purchasing "FirstGroup's Uk bus arm", although i assume in reality they're more referring to individual OpCos rather than all of FirstBusUk in one go. The changes in Scotland currently proposed tell me that any buy out will probably be early next year at the soonest, however i do suspect we'll hear something in the coming weeks.

Yeah I'm just hoping for it to go smoothly so we know what is going on. They've been my main operator for almost all of my life as I'm still only 25. Not easy knowing the biggest operator in my city(Glasgow) is going and nobody knows what we could end up with. As long as it's not council run I'm happy

My money is still on National Express. They've shown clear signs of wanting to expand in Scotland and as mentioned before there has been closed door talks with NX and First management at Caledonia.

Well that is why they are trying to shift it as a package as there some ops that no one would ever buy! Like Somerset even though it is doing better, it will never be profitable. So if it is sold as part of a package I can probably see it being closed down.

I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to flog Somerset as a package along with Kernow and/or Bristol.

 

[PaulMc7]

Que the much anticipated "Stagecoach to buy out First" rumour...

Jokes aside i note Go-Ahead have shown further interesting in purchasing "FirstGroup's Uk bus arm", although i assume in reality they're more referring to individual OpCos rather than all of FirstBusUk in one go. The changes in Scotland currently proposed tell me that any buy out will probably be early next year at the soonest, however i do suspect we'll hear something in the coming weeks.



My money is still on National Express. They've shown clear signs of wanting to expand in Scotland and as mentioned before there has been closed door talks with NX and First management at Caledonia.



I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to flog Somerset as a package along with Kernow and/or Bristol.

Yeah I really don't expect it to be Stagecoach. Minus their Cumbernauld services and the X19 the things they've tried in Glasgow lately haven't been great. Would obviously be different with no major competitor except Mcgills though. Yeah would definitely be interesting to see National Express. I really don't know much about them though so it will be new to me and I'm sure a lot of others too

 

[Jordan Adam]

Yeah I really don't expect it to be Stagecoach. Minus their Cumbernauld services and the X19 the things they've tried in Glasgow lately haven't been great. Would obviously be different with no major competitor except Mcgills though. Yeah would definitely be interesting to see National Express. I really don't know much about them though so it will be new to me and I'm sure a lot of others too

NX's Dundee operation seems well run and the runaway success of the new X90 is quite something to admire given that most new ventures these days seem to fail (cough 360).

 

[PaulMc7]

NX's Dundee operation seems well run and the runaway success of the new X90 is quite something to admire given that most new ventures these days seem to fail (cough 360).

Yeah I think whoever comes in will do well with Glasgow tbh because the tools are there to do well but First have dropped the ball over the last 7/8 years. Prices need to be kept reasonable and I think things would do well. I think a route refresh could also help out Glasgow. We've had the same routes for too long minus a few small tweaks. Simplicity was a great idea that was poorly executed and I think if the buyout of Glasgow does happen early 2020 it could be the right time for something fresh

 

[Volvodart]

IF the pension fund is that bad could it lead to First defaulting?

There are really only two options. If First bus gets sold as a whole, it would be "expected" that Firstgroup would get rid of the pension liability. If it is sold in bits and pieces, it will be left with Firstgroup to sort out the deficit. They recently gave themselves 6 more years to eliminate the deficit by 2035. It would be expected that at least some of the disposal proceeds would go against the deficit.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Yeah I really don't expect it to be Stagecoach. Minus their Cumbernauld services and the X19 the things they've tried in Glasgow lately haven't been great.

Surely the fact that Stagecoach have so much of the Scottish bus market AND were barred from owning SB on competition grounds is much more important as a factor??

There are really only two options. If First bus gets sold as a whole, it would be "expected" that Firstgroup would get rid of the pension liability. If it is sold in bits and pieces, it will be left with Firstgroup to sort out the deficit. They recently gave themselves 6 more years to eliminate the deficit by 2035. It would be expected that at least some of the disposal proceeds would go against the deficit.

There is a third way in which First give any purchaser a dowry (either in cash terms or a discounted purchase price) to take on the pensions liability. However, suspect that the long term plan is the most likely as it maximises short term benefits and they can deal with the pain over a longer term.

 

[Volvodart]

The fact Firstgroup have just had to fork out £20 million for the recent court decision may put someone off accepting a dowry without some sort of recourse guarantee.

 

[PaulMc7]

Surely the fact that Stagecoach have so much of the Scottish bus market AND were barred from owning SB on competition grounds is much more important as a factor??



There is a third way in which First give any purchaser a dowry (either in cash terms or a discounted purchase price) to take on the pensions liability. However, suspect that the long term plan is the most likely as it maximises short term benefits and they can deal with the pain over a longer term.

I totally forgot about that not going to lie. Yeah that definitely wouldn't allow it to happen

 

[mic]

buses 33732 / 69171 and 69224 have returned from lease to Diamond bus north west not sure where they are now