So is there any serious alternative other than to cut down quite markedly the number of trains running through Manchester by way of the MSJ?
Yes. Make it look more like Thameslink and you could get more trains through - the number of trains and number of people is tiny compared with what City Thameslink does on platforms that are almost as narrow. You need trains of consistent layout with wide circulation areas for quick boarding, and probably no seat reservations so people board quickly and take any seat. The CAF DMUs and EMUs are ideal.
So how about:
- All TPE to Victoria unless running into P1/2 in the main trainshed instead and terminating there
- TfW to Victoria (though once their CAF DMUs arrive they could transfer back, but they do have a different door layout with doors at 1/4 and 3/4 rather than thirds)
- Liverpool to East Midlands to Victoria, then on via Denton to Stockport, having the added benefit of adding a useful hourly service to Denton and Reddish South. Passengers wanting this from Picc would change at Stockport.
And the following services at 13/14, operated using CAF units only in formations of 3 or 6 coaches; 2 cars to be used elsewhere. No seat reservations, no First Class, so any door will do for any passenger so orientation is unimportant:
- Blackpool North to Manchester Airport 1tph EMU
- Blackpool North to Hazel Grove 1tph EMU
- Liverpool via Warrington to Manchester Airport 1tph DMU
- Southport to Manchester Airport via Bolton (2tph clockface half-hourly, same pattern on both to allow perfect half hourly except one would do New Lane and Bescar Lane and the other Hoscar, after Wigan all do Ince, Hindley, Westhoughton, Bolton, Salford Crescent, Deansgate then whatever pattern to the Airport. If only one to the Airport is desirable, terminate the other in the Picc reversing siding.)
- Stalybridge bay to Manchester Airport via Ordsall 2tph, DMU now, EMU once electrified
- Windermere/Barrow to Manchester Airport 1tph DMU
That's 8tph with two on the Ordsall Chord for connectivity, though admittedly wasting the wires on there until Stalybridge gets wired (when is that?)
The high performance of the DMUs could furthermore allow all trains to serve all stations on the way to the Airport, thus implementing the "Manchester S-Bahn" on that stretch and growing patronage.