If only that were true. Sadly I don't think mass-motoring will go away by itself. Petrol and diesel cars will start to disappear, but I fear at least as many Ultra Low Emmision Vehicles (ULEVs, as electric cars often seem to be called) are likely to replace them. We might see the utopian reduction in car use you predict if Highways England and the Welsh and Scottish equivalents stop creating more road capacity to encourage traffic, cuts to bus services are reversed and plans for driverless cars on motorways (which might allow the use of mobile devices) are scrapped. Car culture will not be easily banished.This discussion just seems to assume rail will continue to compete against a motorcar fleet that remains largely the same as is, just gradually switch to various sorts of low emissions engines. And will continue to be used as such. Wrong! Even without a government mandated ban on traditional types of engine, the age of mass motoring is drawing to a close. I am willing to predict that resource scarcity, desire for better and safer public environments, and general apathy of young people towards the whole motoring experience will lead to a 'mass dieback' of cars in general. Ditto lorries.
I wouldn't say the idea of railcards is in-itself idiotic. The present range of cards has some near-idiotic characteristics but the basic principle of a relatively low-cost purchase that then encourages future journeys by reducing costs is a sensible one. They just need to simplify the range (instead of having Senior, Disabled, 16-25 and 25-30 with different peak-time restrictions, just have one 'bronze' railcard with the peak restrictions and a 'silver' one without them). Granted the basic (without railcard discount) fares level is generally on the high side, but I'd argue that without a limitless subsidy pot it is better to use any additional funding for improving the quality and availablity (frequency) of the public transport product (buses as well as trains) and possibly reduction in bus fares.Frankly the rail network is far too expensive and totally unfit to bear a larger proportion of our transport needs, and expecting people to accept a return to the 1940s lifestyle is absurd.
Cut fares by three quarters if you want to build the world you imagine. And abolish idiotic railcards.
I wonder, what would emmit more greenhouse gas:As for freight, moving any significant quantity of freight on the UK rail network would require essentially building an all new network - the existing one simply is not suitable in any real sense.
Trains are too short and too gauge restricted.
- the current distribution model with (diesel) HGVs for trunk haul but with electric rather than diesel vans for local distribution or
- larger numbers of electric vans carried on trunk haul sections on trains behind class 66s.
That may be true of the climate change experienced so far; however we are being warned of 'tipping points' which could accelerate climate change. If we hit one of those, it could be a very bad thing - an extinction level event - particularly if that triggers more such 'tipping points'. Climate change has been the cause of several of the mass extinctions we are aware of, perhaps even all of them.There also seems to be an assumption that climate change is a 'bad thing'. It is also possible to consider that it might have benefits - warmer weather in our latitudes could make farming more productive and would lead to a reduction in the use of energy needed to keep houses warm in winter.
I'm not sure how to weigh up passenger vs freight decarbonisation, so I will focus on passenger services (this may not be the best approach). Running at 125mph probably uses a fair bit more fuel than lower speeds, particularly since the Voyager family are high-performance units with large amounts of power to deliver rapid acceleration. For this reason we desperately need to avoid procuring a new fleet for XC but also cascade bi-mode stock to XC to reduce running diesels under the wires. So, I would suggest (not necessarily in this order):Indeed, now Assuming that we're going to need a rolling program of Electrification where would be good candidates to be within the early stages of this program (please note this isn't looking for the correct order of those projects, just the main projects which should be within that list).
As a starter is suggest that some of these would probably be good candidates (not in any particular order, other than the MML would likely be fairly high on most people's lists so that's been put first):
- Didcot - Oxford, Filton Bank and Swindon - Bristol via Bath
- done fairly close together to enable EMU introduction to release class 800s to XC, reformed as 8-car units with six diesel engines each to hopefully maintain Voyager timings (six engines = two 5-car class 800s for each 8-car unit cascaded to XC spare driving vehicles used in the 'new' EMUs)
- Midland Main Line including XC's main routes from Sheffield to both Doncaster and Leeds
- MML bi-modes cascaded to XC, helping make the case for
- Derby - Birmingham - Bristol - Plymouth (between Taunton and Plymouth this would also cut GWR's class 802 diesel mileage)
- Bristol - Plymouth (also useful for GWR)
- Crewe - Holyhead and Wolverhampton - Shrewsbury
- Cascade WCML bi-modes to XC
- Oxford - Banbury - Birmingham
- Newbury - Westbury
Is it that it can't be done, or just that it hasn't been done?While you can't get 25kV 2-car EMUs,
A bi-mode 331 would be another subfleet... Is a bi-mode 331 offered though; CAF's website does offer bi-mode but can they do it for the UK loading guage?Northern don't want another sub fleet, they would either electrify and use 331/323s, use 195/158s or get a bimode 331 which is similar for maintainence, CAF do offer it along with battery options.
Could electric cars not be fitted with a compulsory energy meter and tax motorists based on the amount of power used? The main advantage of that over road pricing is that a energy meter would encourage motorists to drive in a manner which minimises the electricity consumed.The problem with which is electric cars. It could however be placed onto a new road pricing system instead, and I'd be in broad support of that for many reasons (not least it making borrowing a car if you're not the policyholder on another policy to use the third party extension easier)....which is a very good argument for putting the costs of insurance and "tax" onto fuel. NOT as VAT, which is claimed back by people running their cars on their "businesses" but as Excise Duty. It would go a little way towards making the apparent costs of driving a bit more comparable with the immediately obvious cost of buying a train (or other public transport) ticket.
A national insurance scheme (bought in from a consortium of insurance companies if necessary) would also stop people driving uninsured, the costs of which are currently picked up by the rest of us.
Personally I think this "it is running anyway so my carbon footprint is near-zero" argument should only be used for services which are run because they are considered 'social necessary' - so many bus services and the odd railway (like the Heart Of Wales Line) that exists because there are no buses in the area would count but most rail services wouldn't.It's also worth noting that using existing train services do not result in extra emissions until extra services are provided, add those emissions will happen almost whether there's passengers on them or not. Whilst every car journey results in extra emissions, as they don't produce emissions if they are not being used.
Some questions I would like to see answered, which have nothing to do with percentages; what is the absolute value (tonnes of CO2e) of greenhouse gas emmisions from diesel engines in the UK rail sector and if that increases slightly (due to large fleets of new DMUs for Northern and Wales & Borders) or remains the same until 2050 does that mean we fail to reach 'net zero'? And even if it doesn't, is cutting that figure by X tonnes of CO2e easier / more cost-effective than cutting emmisions elsewhere by that amount?rail emissions are less than 2% of that from all road transport (cars, HGVs, buses & vans) added together. On that basis, I hope that no rational, logical decision maker would spend any significant extra money on reducing rail carbon emissions, as they are almost insignificant in relation to the UK carbon emissions problem (and the transport sector was only around 27% of the total UK carbon emissions anyway in 2016).
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