Bridge to Ireland possible rail link and tunnel

[Starmill]

As the Channel Tunnel has demonstrated, a rail only tunnel is almost useless.
I am almost certian that given recent advances in technology, the bridge solution offers a superior BCR to the tunnel solution.

The Channel Tunnel's operational model doesn't really allow it to capture market share though does it?

Eurostar's operations are constrained by:
- All of the disadvantages of security and passport control that airlines face, and the subsequent check-in 'fever'
- No through services at all in the UK, and very, very slow expansion of through services in the Schengen area as result of the juxtaposed controls. Still nothing to Koln and no plans for it, despite it being both within economic journey time and also moving a huge number of new cities to one change from London
- The excessive costs created by Tunnel's financial model which penalises an additional passenger getting a ticket at a cheap rate
- An appalling lack of combined-rail ticket retail at both ends (although NRCoT with tickets to London International doesn't give such bad rights as the Continental split does, you still have to know about that)
- Actually quite slow journey times and quite a thin timetable until 2007, and still not that many trains even now (no late evening services and no early morning service to Brussels)
- General business decisions to provide a high-cost high-price service as a route to profitability (likely the right choice), and not to pursue anything at the lower end of the market. Le Shuttle do this too: Valentine's Day weekend saw them charging car fares in excess of £200 single. Profit is an economic cost that both firms must pay to continue trading

Put another way: Eurostar and Getlink are out for short run profit maximisation. And who can blame them? They aren't out to make the most tunnel-wards shift that's possible.

None of those economic constraints need to apply to a UK Domestic service between, say, Belfast and Glasgow - as long as the UK government were keen to ensure that they didn't. Government is quite at liberty to contract its rail operators to achieve maximum market share rather than maximum returns. They will dutifully do as they're told if that's the spec.

 

[berneyarms]

What is the political problem with reguaging Belfast to Dublin? The Spanish did it.
You can’t practically gauge change freight, and there would surely be a big demand to get the freight trains all the way into Dublin?

Who would pay for regauging a railway and rolling stock in Ireland to suit the whims of a UK government?

How would you cope with the enormous disruption it would cause to a two track railway that is a key commuter route into both Belfast and Dublin (both carrying far greater numbers than would benefit from through services over the bridge) and the extended time that rolling stock would be taken out of use to reguage them?

This is a nonsense that ain’t going to happen.

 

[The Ham]

Who would pay for regauging a railway and rolling stock in Ireland to suit the whims of a UK government?

How would you cope with the enormous disruption it would cause to a two track railway that is a key commuter route into both Belfast and Dublin (both carrying far greater numbers than would benefit from through services over the bridge) and the extended time that rolling stock would be taken out of use to reguage them?

This is a nonsense that ain’t going to happen.

Why would you reguage the existing trains, surely it would be better to cascade then to other lines and get new (assuming that there's other lines that they could go to).

Although chances are if you had a Scotland Ireland rail link then chances are that other lines would see an uplift in use, so even if there wasn't a need for extra trains now there could well be once it was done.

It's also worth considering that any through trains from the rail link are likely to be electric and so there would be a need to electrify the line, which then would reduce the cost of reguaging of the line as it would be having significant engineering works on it anyway.

 

[berneyarms]

Why would you reguage the existing trains, surely it would be better to cascade then to other lines and get new (assuming that there's other lines that they could go to).

Although chances are if you had a Scotland Ireland rail link then chances are that other lines would see an uplift in use, so even if there wasn't a need for extra trains now there could well be once it was done.

It's also worth considering that any through trains from the rail link are likely to be electric and so there would be a need to electrify the line, which then would reduce the cost of reguaging of the line as it would be having significant engineering works on it anyway.

Whether you order new stock or not, this isn't going to happen. The disruption would be massive to commuter services which simply rules it out. That's before you even look at the cost.

What Irish government would survive telling commuters that your rail service is going to be removed for an extended period to facilitate reguaging the track to allow through services across a bridge to Scotland that tiny numbers would use from Ireland by comparison, and that millions of Euro of Irish taxes would have to be unnecessarily spent doing?

Politically that's suicide.

Getting governments to invest in rail in Ireland is like pulling hens teeth. This kind of nonsense is just that. Nonsense.

 

[Meerkat]

Who would pay for regauging a railway and rolling stock in Ireland to suit the whims of a UK government?

How would you cope with the enormous disruption it would cause to a two track railway that is a key commuter route into both Belfast and Dublin (both carrying far greater numbers than would benefit from through services over the bridge) and the extended time that rolling stock would be taken out of use to reguage them?

“Whims of the UK government” sounds like political bias - a fixed link would be a game changer for RoI and an improved link to NI at the same time.
They could probably get a big EU grant for it.
As it’s double track you could do one at a time to keep a restricted service moving.

 

[berneyarms]

“Whims of the UK government” sounds like political bias - a fixed link would be a game changer for RoI and an improved link to NI at the same time.
They could probably get a big EU grant for it.
As it’s double track you could do one at a time to keep a restricted service moving.

Political bias?

More like personal knowledge of Irish attitudes.

I’m an Irish citizen living in Dublin in Ireland.

With due respect I think I’m more aware of the political realities in Ireland and the infrastructure than you. Closing the rail line is NOT going to happen. That would be politically suicidal.

I’ve seen no enthusiasm for this proposal in Ireland - Leo Varadkar’s comments were tongue in cheek - he certainly does not think it’s realistic.

I have seen no serious commentary here that suggests it is seen as a realistic plan.

How is it a game changer for Ireland?

A massive detour north versus a much shorter flight from Dublin where incidentally a second runway is under construction to facilitate more flights.

That doesn’t equate to an improvement to me.

 

[HSTEd]

Does the Channel Tunnel require two drivers to be embarked to allow the splitting of the train or does it allow the driver to move through the train during the incident?

 

[33Hz]

Does the Channel Tunnel require two drivers to be embarked to allow the splitting of the train or does it allow the driver to move through the train during the incident?

I believe the train manager is qualified to drive the rear section.

 

[d9009alycidon]

Maybe this is why Talgo are keen to build a factory at Longannet, they could build a UK and Ireland version of the Talgo 250 Hybrid variable gauge unit!

 

[33Hz]

If the EU put money towards a Dublin - Belfast high speed line, or in 5+ years from now the sea crossing itself, would they mandate standard gauge?

 

[berneyarms]

If the EU put money towards a Dublin - Belfast high speed line, or in 5+ years from now the sea crossing itself, would they mandate standard gauge?

I don’t want to be unduly negative, but a reality check is needed here.

That is not even remotely on the political radar in Ireland, not are any other high speed lines.

 

[Glenn1969]

No EU money will come to Northern Ireland for transport or any other project because UK has now left the EU

 

[Meerkat]

No EU money will come to Northern Ireland for transport or any other project because UK has now left the EU

The money would go to the RoI work - they pay for the EU sides of improvements going through Switzerland don’t they?

Political bias?
More like personal knowledge of Irish attitudes.

The phrase “political whims” implied bias against the British (imo)

Closing the rail line is NOT going to happen

who said it would close?

How is it a game changer for Ireland?

I am thinking trainload freight rather than passengers - but passenger trains to Scotland might be competitive.

 

[33Hz]

No EU money will come to Northern Ireland for transport or any other project because UK has now left the EU

And once we get a united Ireland and independent Scotland it will pay for the bridge as well.

 

[berneyarms]

The money would go to the RoI work - they pay for the EU sides of improvements going through Switzerland don’t they?



The phrase “political whims” implied bias against the British (imo)



who said it would close?



I am thinking trainload freight rather than passengers - but passenger trains to Scotland might be competitive.

I have no bias against the UK government, I’m merely stating what the entire Irish political class (all parties) have said about this.

It’s not seen as a realistic project, full stop, in Ireland. It is viewed as a whim of the current PM and not taken remotely seriously.

That’s reflecting the political realities in Ireland rather than any bias.

My reference to a closure was a response to your suggestion about closing one track at a time on the Dublin-Belfast line to reguage it. It’s a busy commuter railway at either end and there’s no scope for closing one line to reguage it.

But that’s an entirely moot point as I just don’t see this ever happening.

 

[Elwyn]

I agree with berneyarms. Here in Northern Ireland there’s little or no interest in a bridge to Scotland, with or without a railway. The trains here are mostly bursting at the seams and if there is any spare money available we’d rather see it spent on enhancing the existing “domestic” facilities, perhaps with some redoubling and some re-openings of commuter lines into Belfast.


The current ferry services from Belfast & Larne seem to serve freight operators well enough and everybody else flies. I wouldn’t waste these monstrous sums of money on this sort of project.


I notice from recent articles in the Scottish press that Cairnryan is struggling a bit, with the port operators commenting that a lot of the freight is now travelling Belfast to Liverpool with commercial freight operators having adapted their business models to cater for the longer crossing time. A lot of the traffic to England has been lost. They’ll always have the traffic to Scotland of course but if they are struggling to break even, I doubt a bridge is going to look like a very cost effective proposition.

 

[d9009alycidon]

I notice from recent articles in the Scottish press that Cairnryan is struggling a bit, with the port operators commenting that a lot of the freight is now travelling Belfast to Liverpool with commercial freight operators having adapted their business models to cater for the longer crossing time. A lot of the traffic to England has been lost. They’ll always have the traffic to Scotland of course but if they are struggling to break even, I doubt a bridge is going to look like a very cost effective proposition.

And the reason for this is likely to be the close on 100 miles of almost continuous single carraigeway A75 road between Cairnryan and the M74/M6 at Gretna and 45 miles of the even worse A77 to Ayr. I wonder if indeed the commercial freight operators are adapting their business models to cater for the longer crossing time then the Troon route coult be ressurected for Scottish traffic.
This is the elephant in the room of any bridge project, poor road and rail link from Glasgow, poor road and no rail link to Dunfries, and no money to improve the roads to a standard befitting the 21st century

 

[HSTEd]

I agree with berneyarms. Here in Northern Ireland there’s little or no interest in a bridge to Scotland, with or without a railway. The trains here are mostly bursting at the seams and if there is any spare money available we’d rather see it spent on enhancing the existing “domestic” facilities, perhaps with some redoubling and some re-openings of commuter lines into Belfast.

Well the project comes with full double track and electrification pretty much all the way to Larne Harbour.... so in that regard it does improve the domestic network.
(Once you reach the bridge jumping off point its about six miles to Larne, so little point not just converting the Larne line to electric operation).

The current ferry services from Belfast & Larne seem to serve freight operators well enough and everybody else flies. I wouldn’t waste these monstrous sums of money on this sort of project.

What happens when your flights aren't available because of restrictions on aviation fuel consumption?

I notice from recent articles in the Scottish press that Cairnryan is struggling a bit, with the port operators commenting that a lot of the freight is now travelling Belfast to Liverpool with commercial freight operators having adapted their business models to cater for the longer crossing time. A lot of the traffic to England has been lost. They’ll always have the traffic to Scotland of course but if they are struggling to break even, I doubt a bridge is going to look like a very cost effective proposition.

A drive through crossing is orders of magnitude more convenient however, so I would expect a significant fraction of the traffic to return.
We see this in various places where people go around rather than take ferries.

Would Cairnryan be struggling if the ferry crossing took 24 minutes and a ferry left every minute?

You could drive, even with existing roads to the bridge, from Liverpool to Belfast in about 5.5 hours.
The ferry crossing takes 8 and there are only two sailings a day.

With the current system the travel time via Stranraer will be slower than the Liverpool Ferry much of the time.
If the bridge is on the via Stranraer route, they will go via Stranraer.

 

[Elwyn]

What happens when your flights aren't available because of restrictions on aviation fuel consumption?

My view is that if there are fuel constraints then that will drive research into alternative forms of propulsion. So folk will still fly.

 

[HSTEd]

My view is that if there are fuel constraints then that will drive research into alternative forms of propulsion. So folk will still fly.

The only feasible alternatives for anything larger than a utility plane is going to be synthetic fuels.
And the pricetag for synthetic fuels will be much higher than existing prices for jet fuel, factor of at least two and probably more than that.
And even then the infrastructure will take decades to build.

(The electric airliner thing is unlikely to deliver anything suitable for commercial passenger operations outside the overgrown bushplane market any time soon).

A lot of people are just hoping for magical low-cost zero carbon aviation fuel to appear so they can get out of spending on any alternative infrastructure.

 

[berneyarms]

What happens when your flights aren't available because of restrictions on aviation fuel consumption?

Like Elwyn, I suspect that is a some time away.

Aviation access will remain crucial to Ireland’s economy for the foreseeable future, given our location on the periphery of Europe, something that the Irish government has recognised with the ongoing construction of a new runway at Dublin Airport to facilitate more connectivity.

 

[HSTEd]

Like Elwyn, I suspect that is a some time away.

Aviation access will remain crucial to Ireland’s economy for the foreseeable future, given our location on the periphery of Europe, something that the Irish government has recognised with the ongoing construction of a new runway at Dublin Airport to facilitate more connectivity.

Well then the climate truly is stuffed.

But I suppose that is the way it is.


On a technical note, you might be able to put together a route jumping off on Anglesey and coming ashore in the vicinity of Kilkeel.
However that is nearly 110km at sea, although the water is much shallower.
Might be difficult to avoid going into ROI territorial waters/EEZ.

EDIT

There is also the via Isle of Man route, which is also way longer.
But it has the advantage that the section between ~Barrow in Furness and the Isle of Man is shallwo enough for an immersed tube tunnel or simple viaduct without significant engineering challenge.

These routes have the disadvantages of abandoning tying Northern Ireland and Scotland closely together, but have the advantage of much shorter approach infrastructure on the GB side, no hundred+km long HSLs through empty terrain.

 

[berneyarms]

Well then the climate truly is stuffed.

But I suppose that is the way it is.

On a technical note, you might be able to put together a route jumping off on Anglesey and coming ashore in the vicinity of Kilkeel.
However that is nearly 110km at sea, although the water is much shallower.
Might be difficult to avoid going into ROI territorial waters/EEZ.

EDIT

There is also the via Isle of Man route, which is also way longer.
But it has the advantage that the section between ~Barrow in Furness and the Isle of Man is shallwo enough for an immersed tube tunnel or simple viaduct without significant engineering challenge.

With all due respect the climatic effect that aviation in/out of Ireland makes is miniscule in the global context. Let’s not get carried away here.

As an island on the periphery of Europe,
aviation is critical to our economy, particularly tourism.

That can be offset in different ways.

But I’ll leave you to your crayons regarding bridges and tunnels across the Irish Sea.

 

[HSTEd]

With all due respect the climatic effect that aviation in/out of Ireland makes is miniscule in the global context. Let’s not get carried away here.

Perhaps it is, but I'm afraid that anyone allowing aviation to grow will inevitably be used as an excuse for everyone to keep growing aviation use.
See the argument "it's all meaningless because China is growing"

That can be offset in different ways.

Offsets are for the most part a scam designed to extract money from people who are guilty enough to want a piece of paper to make them feel better, but not guilty enough to actually modify their behaviour in any meaningful way.

They are beset by such things as planting a tree and then claiming credit for all the carbon absorbed over the entire lifespan of the tree instantaneously.
Even if the tree might not reach full size for decades, centuries or even millenia.
Or might die, or might be torn down long before then.

And when politicians use them they are designed to give them an excuse to avoid taking any action at all.

But I’ll leave you to your crayons regarding bridges and tunnels across the Irish Sea.

The way things are going we won't be building a bridge or a tunnel.
We will be building a pair of sea walls across the Irish Sea.
Along the lines of NEED.

 

[The Ham]

With all due respect the climatic effect that aviation in/out of Ireland makes is miniscule in the global context. Let’s not get carried away here.

As an island on the periphery of Europe,
aviation is critical to our economy, particularly tourism.

That can be offset in different ways.

But I’ll leave you to your crayons regarding bridges and tunnels across the Irish Sea.

OK, so aviation is essential for you, and about 1,000 other places, whilst each on there own is a small impact they all add up and you end up with a significant problem.

It's like the UK cycling team, they don't look for anything big to change just a lot of small improvements which results in a big change.

 

[The Ham]

Whether you order new stock or not, this isn't going to happen. The disruption would be massive to commuter services which simply rules it out. That's before you even look at the cost.

What Irish government would survive telling commuters that your rail service is going to be removed for an extended period to facilitate reguaging the track to allow through services across a bridge to Scotland that tiny numbers would use from Ireland by comparison, and that millions of Euro of Irish taxes would have to be unnecessarily spent doing?

Politically that's suicide.

Getting governments to invest in rail in Ireland is like pulling hens teeth. This kind of nonsense is just that. Nonsense.

What is required to change the gauge of the track?

Given that the bodies are the same as the UK mainland it would be possible to do something like this:

Over time replace one rail with a double rail one set at 1,600mm and one 165mm onwards of that.

Any bridges and signals would need replacing anyway to allow electrification.

That would result in the "new" trains being 82.5mm "wider" on one side.

The main problem then would be platforms (whilst there would be some structures, these would be fairly infrequent). Probably some of that 82.5mm would be "lost" due to the existing trains being a bit further away than they need to be.

However, to fix the platforms could be done by overhanging a 900mm paving slab over a rebuilt platform below (probably only the top few rows of bricks for any platform which have them stepping out to create the edge).

These works could be done at quieter times with passengers using other parts of the platform to gain access on many quieter stations.

Once you're ready to go, over one weekend cut back the new paving slabs to the new alignment.

Trains are able to carry on running until the changeover happens with the works being no more disruptive than most works.

Yes there would be a cost with doing it, but most of which would be required for electrification anyway.

With regards to passenger numbers, there's about 2 million passengers from Glasgow/Edinburgh to the island of Ireland by air. This compares with 5 million starting/ending their trips at Great Victoria Street, with about 1.3 million being people starting there.

Chances are that would result in a near doubling of passengers (to somewhere around the1.5 to 2 million mark) between Dublin and Belfast with about 1 million of those being people switching from flying.

That's not an insignificant number of people when compared to the existing passenger numbers.

 

[HSTEd]

Looking again at a "modified Irish Mail route".

I make the requirement for route to make the scheme work at all about 176km.
120km of bridge/tunnel.
About 24km from the landing site in the Vicinity of Greencastle to the Belfast-Dublin line south of Newry.
About 31km across the island of Anglesey from the landing site in the vicinity of Carmel Head to Llanfairpwll

Assuming we use the existing journey time of roughly 1 hour from Belfast to Newry
About 42 minutes at 250km/h over the bridge and new sections, and then about 1hr5 to Chester.

So Belfast Chester in about 2hr50.
If the bridge/tunnel can be rigged for 320km/h instead of 250km/h, the journey time cuts by nearly ten minutes.

Belfast-Chester in 2h40 is not that impressive, until you consider that that has effectively no journey time improvements outside the new line, which is highly conservative given the difference electrification would make, and how slow the Enterprise service is today.

The fastest journey time between Belfast and Newry is 50 minutes, stopping only at Portadown.

If we use a high performance tilting unit like a Talgo AVRIL (which gets us the gauge change for free), then I think we can probably slash that journey time.
Even if it can only average 75mph, we will slice the journey time down to about 40 minutes.

That takes us to about 75 minutes Belfast to Llanfairpwll.
Or something like ~2hr20 minutes to Chester, assuming no upgrades on the North Wales Line

That puts Manchester about 3 hours from Belfast,
After HS2 London would be about 3hr40 ish.

You lose Glasgow but gain Manchester and with relatively little extra trackage you could gain Liverpool.

Road connections are pretty good since you only need about ten miles on the irish end to reach the A1 (NI)
And you dont need much more to reach the A55/A5 out of Holyhead.


Honestly I think its probably a better route, even without the potential for major joureny time improvements with extra track, even though the sea crossing is much much longer.

Also the Irish Government might be persuaded to fund track upgrades on it's half of the Enterprise route and a south facing chord at Newry, and we might be able to capture ROI traffic too, but without having to dela with an international bridge etc. (I think the alignment stays just outside Irish Waters)

And since we are using the Newry-Belfast line, the upgrades on that benefit normal users of the train system as well, and the same on the North Wales line.

EDIT:

The straight line does intrude into the corner of the RoI EEZ. However kinking the route away moves you out of the Irish EEZ whilst extending the bridge length by less than 300m.

Alignment maximum depth is about 128m below sea level, average depth is much less though, with three quarters of the route being shallower than 75m.
I think it would probably require less concrete than the Stranraer route!

 

[gavin1985]

And the reason for this is likely to be the close on 100 miles of almost continuous single carraigeway A75 road between Cairnryan and the M74/M6 at Gretna and 45 miles of the even worse A77 to Ayr. I wonder if indeed the commercial freight operators are adapting their business models to cater for the longer crossing time then the Troon route coult be ressurected for Scottish traffic.
This is the elephant in the room of any bridge project, poor road and rail link from Glasgow, poor road and no rail link to Dunfries, and no money to improve the roads to a standard befitting the 21st century

Couldn't have put it better myself. Anything relating to South West Scotland is laughable, full dualling of the A75 and A77, as well as suitable double tracked and electrified lines from the East and North is a must before anything is considered for a bridge or tunnel project in the region.
It almost reminds me how pathetic the A1 is along the East Coast in both Scotland and North of Newcastle.

 

[33Hz]

The only feasible alternatives for anything larger than a utility plane is going to be synthetic fuels.
And the pricetag for synthetic fuels will be much higher than existing prices for jet fuel, factor of at least two and probably more than that.
And even then the infrastructure will take decades to build.

(The electric airliner thing is unlikely to deliver anything suitable for commercial passenger operations outside the overgrown bushplane market any time soon).

A lot of people are just hoping for magical low-cost zero carbon aviation fuel to appear so they can get out of spending on any alternative infrastructure.

I think you are about to be pleasantly surprised. You could make an electric Dash 8 now with reasonable range and better batteries are commercialised every year.

On a technical note, you might be able to put together a route jumping off on Anglesey and coming ashore in the vicinity of Kilkeel.
However that is nearly 110km at sea, although the water is much shallower.
Might be difficult to avoid going into ROI territorial waters/EEZ.

EDIT

There is also the via Isle of Man route, which is also way longer.
But it has the advantage that the section between ~Barrow in Furness and the Isle of Man is shallwo enough for an immersed tube tunnel or simple viaduct without significant engineering challenge.

You could have under 110km of bridge/tunnel via the Isle of Man.

no hundred+km long HSLs through empty terrain.

Isn't this what HSLs excel at?

Offsets are for the most part a scam designed to extract money from people who are guilty enough to want a piece of paper to make them feel better, but not guilty enough to actually modify their behaviour in any meaningful way.

100% agree.

The way things are going we won't be building a bridge or a tunnel.
We will be building a pair of sea walls across the Irish Sea.
Along the lines of NEED.

Why not a barrage at each end? Control the water in, gives two bridges and you could generate enough electricity for both countries probably.

 

[HSTEd]

I think you are about to be pleasantly surprised. You could make an electric Dash 8 now with reasonable range and better batteries are commercialised every year.

And yet despite huge sums of money being expended, noone is anywhere near close to building one.

You could have under 110km of bridge/tunnel via the Isle of Man.

The problem with the Isle of Man route is the lack of great jumping off points.

You can jump off from the Cumbria Coast Line north of Barrow easily enough, although road access to that area of coast is notoriously awful.
But what do you do on the Irish Side?

You probably land near Portaferry, there aren't any major road or rail connections anywhere near there.

Isn't this what HSLs excel at?

It is, until it just leads to generating enormous amounts of public opposition.
A bridge out of sight of land has the advantage that it can be built out of whatever spans are most economic without major aesthetics considerations.

120km bridge might consist of 110 ~1100m cable stay bridge spans, or it might just be 400 ~260m extradosed bridge spans which are all entirely identical and can be manufactured on a production line and craned onto piers with a floating crane.

Indeed in some ways building at sea is easier because you have far better access for heavy equipment.
It would be interesting to see which type of bridge a design optimises too, I think it is probably either double deck cable stay or extradosed.
Probably not a massive 40 span suspension bridge with huge 3000m spans, although that would be awesome.

Why not a barrage at each end? Control the water in, gives two bridges and you could generate enough electricity for both countries probably.

Well the water flow will be outwards, so its rather thard to generate energy like that.
The Irish Sea has a net outflow, like the North Sea, so enormous pumping stations would be required to pump the water several metres up-and-out.

Does eventually create something equivalent to a great lake in terms of fresh water though.....