Flybe Collapses

[TheEdge]

While most routes are pretty much already covered with alternate flights, and better run airlines are already looking to move into markets where there's an actual demand or PSO (like Newquay-London), expect wailing and gnashing of teeth from people relying on ridiculously cheap tickets.

Most routes are not covered at all. At least 3 airports I can think of have lost the vast majority of their flights. While the users of the flights from Exeter and Southampton on the most part may have a practical alternative I doubt those from Belfast are booking rail travel any time soon.

Flybe made a massive misstep when they took on stupidly expensive small jets and tried to take on the big airlines with longer flights, their bread and butter domestic and regional flights were by all accounts doing ok.

 

[PG]

a few socially necessary routes will get Government support with a new operator and the rest will be lost and passengers will have to use rail, which is better for the environment.

Or maybe we've seen "peak flight" and there will be lots more of this kind of thing as we return to a much more sensible level of air travel, such as that that went on in the 1990s?

I doubt sleasyJet or Eireflop will go anywhere any time soon, but there is definitely room for a pruning.

I don't see that I'm afraid. Cheap flights have lead to unrealistic expectations on the price of travel, it will take a long time to undo that damage.

How much Flybe demand will just disappear - people only making trips because of the (clearly unsustainable) low fares?

From the panic from "stranded passengers", some people have built their lives around the assumption they can rely on these cheap flights.

While most routes are pretty much already covered with alternate flights, and better run airlines are already looking to move into markets where there's an actual demand or PSO (like Newquay-London), expect wailing and gnashing of teeth from people relying on ridiculously cheap tickets.

As folk have alluded to the price of travel (offered by Flybe) was unsustainable.

Yes it's tough if you've got used to being able to travel quickly within the UK but now it's time to get real and travel sustainably.

So yes flights from the islands should get support via the PSO but the rest should use other modes (such as the train) and accept that travel won't be as quick any more.

 

[Elwyn]

Most routes are not covered at all. At least 3 airports I can think of have lost the vast majority of their flights. While the users of the flights from Exeter and Southampton on the most part may have a practical alternative I doubt those from Belfast are booking rail travel any time soon.

It’s true that you can’t get a train from Belfast to GB but many air routes are duplicated so their loss isn’t quite as dramatic as it may seem. Belfast has 2 airports and, until today, you could fly to Paris, Amsterdam, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol, Cardiff and several of the London airports from both. So there are already immediate alternatives for folk wanting to go to those places. The duplication has probably stretched profitability a bit and there probably was a need to cut some of those anyway. The routes with no alternatives are Belfast to Inverness, Aberdeen, Doncaster, Dundee, Southampton and Exeter. And there may be a couple of others.

Belfast City Airport management have been on the radio this morning saying they are already in discussions with other un-named airlines about taking some of the routes over. We shall see.

 

[matacaster]

I was comparing Birmingham - Aberdeen with the rail equivalent via the West Coast. It's interminably slow whichever way you do it and it was disruption en route at Lancaster the last time I did it by train that convinced me that I would fly in future. The West Coast option certainly won't be better on the return from Edinburgh to Birmingham in this particular instance as the line will be closed for engineering works between Carstairs and Carlisle.

Funnily enough those of us who were already planning on travelling Birmingham - Edinburgh (Or a substantial portion thereof) by train on this particular trip will be doing it with XC as it allows us to make a worthwhile stop off for a couple of pints at the York Tap. The accelerated timings on the Newcastle services mean you can get from Birmingham to a decent mid-journey pint quite quickly.

Don't forget from York to Edinburgh you could also try TPE or lner.

 

[Deepgreen]

If most 'Flybe' journeys can be accommodated on the rail network without too much problem, it points to a carbon-reduction success. Internal journeys by rail rather than air in a landmass the size of the UK should surely be a big part of any proper policy on climate change.

 

[matacaster]

It’s true that you can’t get a train from Belfast to GB but many air routes are duplicated so their loss isn’t quite as dramatic as it may seem. Belfast has 2 airports and, until today, you could fly to Paris, Amsterdam, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol, Cardiff and several of the London airports from both. So there are already immediate alternatives for folk wanting to go to those places. The duplication has probably stretched profitability a bit and there probably was a need to cut some of those anyway. The routes with no alternatives are Belfast to Inverness, Aberdeen, Doncaster, Dundee, Southampton and Exeter. And there may be a couple of others.

Belfast City Airport management have been on the radio this morning saying they are already in discussions with other un-named airlines about taking some of the routes over. We shall see.

Do those UK places you mention above with low passenger mumbers need a direct connection from Belfast? Perhaps a more sustainable, integrated, but slower option might be to provide direct flights to a couple of places and complete journey to destination by rail?

 

[Nick_C]

If most 'Flybe' journeys can be accommodated on the rail network without too much problem, it points to a carbon-reduction success. Internal journeys by rail rather than air in a landmass the size of the UK should surely be a big part of any proper policy on climate change.

For a lot, yes - but not all, and it could have a big impact on the various smaller islands from which there isn't a rail alternative.

 

[Cardiff123]

I haven't read all of this thread, but I find it deeply ironic that in the media today there are 'fears' for the airline industry due to the impact of Coronavirus, yet at the same time there's news about the fact that Europe has just had it's warmest winter on record. https://www.theguardian.com/environ...er-2019-20-in-europe-by-far-hottest-on-record
Over the past few months we've seen Australia on fire and we've had damaging storms and floods in the UK. We are in a climate crisis and in terms of travel, air travel is the most damaging form of travel on the environment and the climate. You cannot ever 'de-carbonise' air travel, it will always pump billions of tonnes of damaging CO2 directly into the atmosphere every day. If we are ever going to tackle the climate crisis head on, people need to change their lifestyles and stop flying. So whilst I feel sorry for the employees of Flybe who are losing their jobs, I am not mourning airlines that are collapsing.

 

[ScotsRail]

In unsurprising news LoganAir have announced they'll be covering 16 Flybe routes from March 16th to July 6th.

They are,
Aberdeen to Belfast City, Birmingham, Manchester and Jersey,
Edinburgh to Cardiff, Exeter, Manchester, Newquay and Southampton.
Glasgow to Exeter and Southampton.
Inverness to Belfast City, Birmingham and Jersey
Newcastle to Exeter and Southampton.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not really because, as we speak, there isn't really a domestic airline network in competition anymore.

For many of Flymaybe's journeys (though perhaps not the Scottish ones), the car is a viable option and is often quicker than the train because it's door to door. For those where it's not (e.g. Scotland to London), easyJet are already in on it, mostly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Most routes are not covered at all. At least 3 airports I can think of have lost the vast majority of their flights. While the users of the flights from Exeter and Southampton on the most part may have a practical alternative I doubt those from Belfast are booking rail travel any time soon.

Belfast is probably the one where other airlines (i.e. Sleasy) will step in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In unsurprising news LoganAir have announced they'll be covering 16 Flybe routes from March 16th to July 6th.

They are,
Aberdeen to Belfast City, Birmingham, Manchester and Jersey,
Edinburgh to Cardiff, Exeter, Manchester, Newquay and Southampton.
Glasgow to Exeter and Southampton.
Inverness to Belfast City, Birmingham and Jersey
Newcastle to Exeter and Southampton.

That's a very specific period of time, as if they were doing it commercially surely it'd be indefinite. Has the Government (either Westminster or the Scottish one) perhaps asked/paid them to do so?

 

[swt_passenger]

In unsurprising news LoganAir have announced they'll be covering 16 Flybe routes from March 16th to July 6th.

They are,
Aberdeen to Belfast City, Birmingham, Manchester and Jersey,
Edinburgh to Cardiff, Exeter, Manchester, Newquay and Southampton.
Glasgow to Exeter and Southampton.
Inverness to Belfast City, Birmingham and Jersey
Newcastle to Exeter and Southampton.

I guess that involves taking on a certain number of FlyBe aircraft?

I read somewhere that FlyBe were locked into long leases on far too many planes, hence always trying to come up with new routes to use them on, no matter what the BCR?

 

[Elwyn]

Belfast is probably the one where other airlines (i.e. Sleasy) will step in.

Easyjet already operate a large number of routes from Belfast International. I don't see them rushing to operate from the City Airport as well. They'd be competing against themselves to some extent.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Easyjet already operate a large number of routes from Belfast International. I don't see them rushing to operate from the City Airport as well. They'd be competing against themselves to some extent.

In which case Belfast is adequately served, or if it's not they can up the service a bit from there. I don't think we should be hand-wringing about individual airports in what is a relatively small city, much as there are a small number of people for whom the longer journey may be a mild nuisance.

It's not like London where its individual airports are up to something like 80 miles apart and serve rather different areas of the Home Counties.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I guess that involves taking on a certain number of FlyBe aircraft?

I read somewhere that FlyBe were locked into long leases on far too many planes, hence always trying to come up with new routes to use them on, no matter what the BCR?

They also missed some upselling tricks. Our corporate system won't for instance allow us to seat select where it's chargeable (because they don't want to pay for it), but sleasyJet quite sensibly upsell at check-in because the individual might pay. Flybe won't allow that.

 

[oldman]

That's a very specific period of time, as if they were doing it commercially surely it'd be indefinite. Has the Government (either Westminster or the Scottish one) perhaps asked/paid them to do so?

That's not what they are saying - the services will commence on various dates between 16.3 and 6.7. No end dates mentioned.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's not what they are saying - the services will commence on various dates between 16.3 and 6.7. No end dates mentioned.

Oh, I see. That makes a lot more sense.

I hope they don't overstretch themselves and find themselves failing, too.

 

[Elwyn]

In which case Belfast is adequately served, or if it's not they can up the service a bit from there. I don't think we should be hand-wringing about individual airports in what is a relatively small city, much as there are a small number of people for whom the longer journey may be a mild nuisance.

It's not like London where its individual airports are up to something like 80 miles apart and serve rather different areas of the Home Counties.

I agree completely. But it's a free market economy and if airlines wish to use both airports, they can. And they do. (You had flybe and KLM both operating from Belfast City to Amsterdam with Easyjet also operating from Belfast International to Amsterdam. That seems daft but appeared to satisfy some). Obviously the Government could intervene and force one airport to close. But that's not going to happen is it?

 

[Ianno87]

Yes it's tough if you've got used to being able to travel quickly within the UK but now it's time to get real and travel sustainably.

BBC News featured a guy who, despite living in Oxfordshire, runs a business in Glasgow and thus flies frequently (formerly with Flybe). I think people are going to have to get used to making lifestyle compromises.

 

[Elwyn]

Do those UK places you mention above with low passenger mumbers need a direct connection from Belfast? Perhaps a more sustainable, integrated, but slower option might be to provide direct flights to a couple of places and complete journey to destination by rail?

How do you define need? They could do it as you suggest but today's business folk want to make business visits in as short a period of time as possible.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree completely. But it's a free market economy and if airlines wish to use both airports, they can. And they do. (You had flybe and KLM both operating from Belfast City to Amsterdam with Easyjet also operating from Belfast International to Amsterdam. That seems daft but appeared to satisfy some). Obviously the Government could intervene and force one airport to close. But that's not going to happen is it?

I'm not suggesting they should, all I'm suggesting is that Belfast City airport not being served adequately doesn't mean Belfast isn't served adequately, and only one of those things is a concern that the Government should show an interest in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How do you define need? They could do it as you suggest but today's business folk want to make business visits in as short a period of time as possible.

"I want" doesn't get.

 

[ScotsRail]

That's a very specific period of time, as if they were doing it commercially surely it'd be indefinite. Has the Government (either Westminster or the Scottish one) perhaps asked/paid them to do so?

Sorry, my badly worded input there - they are starting them between March and July.

 

[Ianno87]

"I want" doesn't get.

There's definitely an opportunity here to get the most travel-addicted business users into the mindset of travelling for business by exception/genuine reason, rather than by default.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There's definitely an opportunity here to get the most travel-addicted business users into the mindset of travelling for business by exception/genuine reason, rather than by default.

Agreed. Almost all the corporates have a "travel ban except really essential stuff" in Q4 because they've overspent. That really should be the default state. Too many business trips are an unnecessary jolly.

 

[Bombolino]

A lot of people have a lot of things to say on this topic, but to those people who used Flybe, it enabled you to do things in a day that would otherwise take two. In the past I travelled regularly from Manchester to Southampton, having started my journey in Lytham St Annes. The plane enabled me to get there and back in a day with the minimum of fuss. Sometimes it could take as much as six hours by road. So to be sure I was there on time, it necessitated an overnight stay. Being able to fly made that unnecessary. The big issue affecting Flybe was Air Passenger Duty. This affected them more than most airlines, because the flat fee of £13.00 was levied per sector. A flight abroad levies £13.00 for the outbound sector only. Any APD payable on the return leg goes to the government where the destination airport is based, most of which charge far less than we do. Every domestic Flybe return ticket was inflated by £26.00. Can you imagine the effect this would have on rail travel if it was imposed on rail fares?

 

[Djgr]

For many of Flymaybe's journeys (though perhaps not the Scottish ones), the car is a viable option and is often quicker than the train because it's door to door. For those where it's not (e.g. Scotland to London), easyJet are already in on it, mostly.

But it's not viable for business people who wish to use time semi-productively.

 

[TheEdge]

I read somewhere that FlyBe were locked into long leases on far too many planes, hence always trying to come up with new routes to use them on, no matter what the BCR?

They took big leases out on a fleet of the larger Embraer E-Jets and they just couldn't get enough money out of them to cover the costs of running what really is a pocket sized airliner as opposed to Dash 8s which are a lower cost prop aircraft. Before they dropped Norwich they flew an E195 Exeter - Norwich - Alicante - Norwich - Exeter, just to get the use out of the E-Jet, Norwich wasn't a big hub in any sense.

 

[miami]

Flybe were charging say £70 return for Manchester to Southampton, with another £26 to offset the damage those flights did to the environment.

You are implying if flybe got that extra £26 they wouldn't have a problem.

In that case, why didn't they increase fares to £96 return (£122 return including APD). If their product was so much better than the competition, that would be fine.

They didn't charge enough, presumably because not enough people were willing to pay the actual cost of the flight. Blaming it on high landing fees, or APD, or other costs is disingenuous, it is a product with low running costs, hence undercutting train, coach and driving costs.

Rather than leaving home at 6am to get the 0835 flight from southampton (1h30 to airport, and a bit of leeway for heavy traffic), getting you to southampton airport for 0940, your journey will take an extra hour - at least until HS2 opens. A shame, but there are far more worthy cases of state subsidy than saving 20 businessmen an hour off their trip to southampton.

Flybe was badly run, asset stripped, and Branson tried to get more money from the taxpayer. Hopefully a properly run airline will be able to deliver commercially suitable routes.