Coronavirus.

[trainophile]

It's not just the customers though, often the kitchen will not be large enough (or practical) for the chefs to stay a distance from eachother.

 

[krus_aragon]

Diversion time!

While stuck at home, a family in Winnipeg built a Lego set, took the audio of a virus-related message Canadian PM Justin Trudeau gave to kids last month, and turned it into an animated movie.

Video available on twitter at https://twitter.com/walsht/status/1246879073650999297, or as part of an article at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/lego-video-coronavirus-1.5524282 (and probably elsewhere too).

 

[krus_aragon]

there we go:

View attachment 76188

I also got two letters, but they shared the same envelope:

 

[Chester1]

Could start opening more shops too, as people get used to keeping 2m apart. What shops that aren’t already open get very crowded? Garden centres?
“Before you open you mark the queues, one way your aisles, protect your staff at checkouts.if you don’t do this you don’t open, and if you don’t enforce this you will be individually closed”

Saying that I do note that almost all chain restaurants, which under the present rules would be allowed to stay open for delivery or take-a-way, decided to close. They mostly seemed to stay open for a couple of days after the ban on restaurants was announced, so presumably decided it wasn’t worth it.

A lot of businesses had to close before the lockdown because of their customers staying away. I think after a 6 week lockdown plenty of people will be very happy to sit outside at cafes and pubs with 2m distancing. Staff may not be able to stay 2m apart but high risk people should be staying at home until at least mid June. A semi lockdown means putting all low risk people at risk, whether at work or on public transport or out and about. If the measures are calculated correctly then the inevitable second spike in cases should be well within the NHS ability to handle. Our government does seem to be more realistic that there is basically no chance of completely eradicating Covid-19. The lockdown is occuring to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, its not going to last until its completely gone.

 

[DarloRich]

Raab ducked a lot of questions today, especially on who makes decisions, authority to respond to an emergency, change plan, testing types and numbers and lockdown review.

Poor. The answer to the power and authority questions was: me

Also reporters stupid: one question on graphs about why the Germany line is lower. Also no questions why intensive care slide seems to show decreases in certain areas of the country. Poor.

 

[Mogster]

Our government does seem to be more realistic that there is basically no chance of completely eradicating Covid-19. The lockdown is occuring to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, its not going to last until its completely gone.

Agreed. I don’t see how you can eradicate a virus that has such mild and generalized symptoms in most people.

 

[yorksrob]

Agreed. I don’t see how you can eradicate a virus that has such mild and generalized symptoms in most people.

Could they attempt the small pox solution and try and vaccinate everyone ?

Obviously the geopolitical scene is more fragmented than in the 1950's, but it might be possible technically.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Could they attempt the small pox solution and try and vaccinate everyone ?

Obviously the geopolitical scene is more fragmented than in the 1950's, but it might be possible technically.

I think the big hurdle will be waiting for the vaccine. It is probably the big long term priority. I see the stages in progress being social distancing to protect the NHS (varied as required), testing for illness, testing for recovered in that order. Then vaccine trumps the first three.

 

[hwl]

Also no questions why intensive care slide seems to show decreases in certain areas of the country. Poor.

A number staffing issues as regards data collection and compilation in West Yorkshire /Leeds apparently, it has hit few data series.

Interestingly time in critical care seems to be increasing given what key people are saying...

 

[yorksrob]

I think the big hurdle will be waiting for the vaccine. It is probably the big long term priority. I see the stages in progress being social distancing to protect the NHS (varied as required), testing for illness, testing for recovered in that order. Then vaccine trumps the first three.

Hopefully within those, there might be some progress with antiviral drugs that could reduce the mortality rate.

 

[Chester1]

Could they attempt the small pox solution and try and vaccinate everyone ?

Obviously the geopolitical scene is more fragmented than in the 1950's, but it might be possible technically.

If there is a successful vaccine it would certainly be possibly. Polio is now restricted to the Afghan - Pakistan border and may soon be eradicated there (Taliban wives are now vaccinating people). They managed to eradicate it in Nigeria a couple of years ago despite the huge presence of terrorist groups in the north. There is no vaccine for any type of Coronavirus for people, no Coronavirus vaccination for animals has successfully been adapted for humans. Too many people are sure that scientists will quickly make a successful vaccine. It's probably 18 months off at best, if it happens at all. There is a high chance most people will have immunity through getting it or coming into contact with it before a vaccine can be developed. Unfortunately we don't know if it provides most people with permanent immunity yet (there will always be some examples of reinfection).

 

[hwl]

Also reporters stupid: one question on graphs about why the Germany line is lower.

I'd go for a smaller number of initial spreaders than other European countries and where it started spreading (e.g. not in the biggest cities initially). Probably quite a lot of luck.
Similarly France to an extent in that the initial area didn't include Paris, once it got there....

 

[RichT54]

Could they attempt the small pox solution and try and vaccinate everyone ?

Obviously the geopolitical scene is more fragmented than in the 1950's, but it might be possible technically.

One problem would be the growing anti-vaccer movement and those feed their delusions. I noticed that YouTube had to be persuaded to delete a video of a live interview with that idiot Icke:

Mr Icke also falsely claimed that a coronavirus vaccine, when one is developed, will include "nanotechnology microchips" that would allow humans to be controlled. He added that Bill Gates - who is helping fund Covid-19 vaccine research - should be jailed. His views went unchallenged for much of the two-and-a-half-hour show.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52198946

And when asked for his reaction to reports of 5G masts being set on fire in England and Northern Ireland, he responded: "If 5G continues and reaches where they want to take it, human life as we know it is over... so people have to make a decision."

Unfortunately there are a lot of people, especially in America that believe this nonsense.

 

[hwl]

Hopefully within those, there might be some progress with antiviral drugs that could reduce the mortality rate.

Treating over reaction of the immune system might be an avenue as that is part of the ICU capacity issue.

Core issue is that humankind have very little knowledge so far.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I'd go for a smaller number of initial spreaders than other European countries and where it started spreading (e.g. not in the biggest cities initially). Probably quite a lot of luck.
Similarly France to an extent in that the initial area didn't include Paris, once it got there....

What I hate about a lot of the graphs and stats on TV is they quote total numbers. It would be better if they reported them as a percentage of population. America might have a lot of deaths but I think it has a population bigger than any of the European countries. So America is in fact having less of a hit (currently) than any country in Europe. China has a huge population iirc.

 

[yorksrob]

If there is a successful vaccine it would certainly be possibly. Polio is now restricted to the Afghan - Pakistan border and may soon be eradicated there (Taliban wives are now vaccinating people). They managed to eradicate it in Nigeria a couple of years ago despite the huge presence of terrorist groups in the north. There is no vaccine for any type of Coronavirus for people, no Coronavirus vaccination for animals has successfully been adapted for humans. Too many people are sure that scientists will quickly make a successful vaccine. It's probably 18 months off at best, if it happens at all. There is a high chance most people will have immunity through getting it or coming into contact with it before a vaccine can be developed. Unfortunately we don't know if it provides most people with permanent immunity yet (there will always be some examples of reinfection).

This is true, however has there been the motivation to develop vaccines for the existing Corona viruses, particularly the ones that come under the umbrella of the common cold.

 

[greyman42]

I think after a 6 week lockdown plenty of people will be very happy to sit outside at cafes and pubs with 2m distancing.

I think this is impractical. If you see the pavements outside pubs in London, after work in summer, they are heaving.

 

[yorksrob]

Treating over reaction of the immune system might be an avenue as that is part of the ICU capacity issue.

Core issue is that humankind have very little knowledge so far.

Yes, more knowledge in this area could presumably assist with problems such as sepsis for example.

 

[hwl]

What I hate about a lot of the graphs and stats on TV is they quote total numbers. It would be better if they reported them as a percentage of population. America might have a lot of deaths but I think it has a population bigger than any of the European countries. So America is in fact having less of a hit (currently) than any country in Europe. China has a huge population iirc.

The maths behind all this works far better for actual numbers than % of population which are much less useful.

 

[Roast Veg]

Unfortunately we don't know if it provides most people with permanent immunity yet (there will always be some examples of reinfection).

I've yet to see an answer to the question of whether current examples of "reinfection" are down to multiple strains, relapses, or real reinfection.

What I hate about a lot of the graphs and stats on TV is they quote total numbers. It would be better if they reported them as a percentage of population. America might have a lot of deaths but I think it has a population bigger than any of the European countries. So America is in fact having less of a hit (currently) than any country in Europe. China has a huge population iirc.

Indeed, I have been following trends via this: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

 

[yorksrob]

One problem would be the growing anti-vaccer movement and those feed their delusions. I noticed that YouTube had to be persuaded to delete a video of a live interview with that idiot Icke:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52198946



Unfortunately there are a lot of people, especially in America that believe this nonsense.

Yes, this is something that wasn't such a problem at the time of the small pox programme.

 

[bramling]

A lot of businesses had to close before the lockdown because of their customers staying away. I think after a 6 week lockdown plenty of people will be very happy to sit outside at cafes and pubs with 2m distancing. Staff may not be able to stay 2m apart but high risk people should be staying at home until at least mid June. A semi lockdown means putting all low risk people at risk, whether at work or on public transport or out and about. If the measures are calculated correctly then the inevitable second spike in cases should be well within the NHS ability to handle. Our government does seem to be more realistic that there is basically no chance of completely eradicating Covid-19. The lockdown is occuring to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, its not going to last until its completely gone.

The problem comes if 2m distancing still needs to be maintained. For example, bear in mind it's highly likely the transport industry is still going to have a lot of staff off (the shielded groups for starters) they won't be able to run a full timetable, if people are properly spaced then realistically you're not able to get more than 10 people per carriage - even on something like a 12-car class 700 this will in practice mean only 120 people per train. Remembering the behaviour we've seen recently at parks, beaches and the likes and a probable sudden surge to go for family days out after having been locked down for several weeks, and this quite simply will cause mayhem.

Your key worker is going to be utterly furious if they board a train and find their options are to (1) stand up for the journey to work, or (2) sit within 2 metres of a family on the way to the seaside. In that situation I'd be turning round and going home, and I can say many others would likely do same.

This isn't an easy problem to square up. Of course if we could rely on the wider populace to be sensible and measured then things might work better, but so far the reaction of the general public has lurched from panic buying so key workers finished their shifts to find empty shelves, a bizarre obsession with toilet roll, a nurse spat and jeered at and told she was a "disease spreader", bedlam at beaches and public parks, and now people complaining of boredom and a sudden obsession with exercise, the latest thing being cyclists everywhere once again getting in the way of key workers. We've even seen a CMO break her own guidance and head to her second home not once but twice. None of this bodes well for people doing the right thing in the circumstances.

Generally the numbers of key workers available isn't actually that badly impaired considering how easy it is to phone in and say "my housemate has a cough", although some places have suffered worse than others. Most people are genuinely making an effort to come to work and do their bit, despite in some cases some reservations about the risk of becoming ill and seeing on TV cases of younger healthy people succumbing. In some cases there have even been some shielded people having made the decision to come to work against advice as they feel the lockdown has made it less risky and given them more control over maintaining distancing.

 

[Peter Sarf]

This is true, however has there been the motivation to develop vaccines for the existing Corona viruses, particularly the ones that come under the umbrella of the common cold.

Each version of the common cold is not serious enough to justify a lot of time and expense on finding a vaccine. However COVID-19 is dangerous enough AND looks to be contagious enough to very easily justify a vaccine.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The problem comes if 2m distancing still needs to be maintained. For example, bear in mind it's highly likely the transport industry is still going to have a lot of staff off (the shielded groups for starters) they won't be able to run a full timetable, if people are properly spaced then realistically you're not able to get more than 10 people per carriage - even on something like a 12-car class 700 this will in practice mean only 120 people per train. Remembering the behaviour we've seen recently at parks, beaches and the likes and a probably sudden surge to go for family days out after having been locked down for several weeks, and this quite simply will cause mayhem.

This isn't an easy problem to square up. Of course if we could rely on the wider populace to be sensible and measured then things might work better, but so far the reaction of the general public has lurched from panic buying so key workers finished their shifts to find empty shelves, a bizarre obsession with toilet roll, a nurse spat and jeered at and told she was a "disease spreader", bedlam at beaches and public parks, and now people complaining of boredom and a sudden obsession with exercise, the latest thing being cyclists everywhere once again getting in the way of key workers. None of this bodes well for people doing the right thing in the circumstances.

I just thought. The vast majority of the population survived without restaurants until roughly the 1980s. So do we really need them ?. Only to satisfy the desire to mix and avoid cooking. Other things need relaxing first. But it will be a challenge to balance between what is required on a practical front and what is needed on a morale front.

 

[Meerkat]

I think this is impractical. If you see the pavements outside pubs in London, after work in summer, they are heaving.

Wouldn’t work for tables on the pavement but elsewhere (including indoors)...
Place tables and chairs at required spacing
Sanitiser and wipes on table
You only get in if there is a table available
You only go to the bar when called
Food might have to be delivered on a trolley or to a fold up table put near the punters’ table.
Cutlery from washer to tray by same person.

Its more bother the more you think about it - would it really make any money?!

 

[Peter Sarf]

Wouldn’t work for tables on the pavement but elsewhere (including indoors)...
Place tables and chairs at required spacing
Sanitiser and wipes on table
You only get in if there is a table available
You only go to the bar when called
Food might have to be delivered on a trolley or to a fold up table put near the punters’ table.
Cutlery from washer to tray by same person.

Its more bother the more you think about it - would it really make any money?!

That will put costs up but then that will reduce demand .

 

[Meerkat]

Your key worker is going to be utterly furious if they board a train and find their options are to (1) stand up for the journey to work, or (2) sit within 2 metres of a family on the way to the seaside. In that situation I'd be turning round and going home, and I can say many others would likely do same.

You could reduce restrictions whilst maintaining travel restrictions. You can do more stuff locally but you can’t travel to do it

 

[Peter Sarf]

I've yet to see an answer to the question of whether current examples of "reinfection" are down to multiple strains, relapses, or real reinfection.


Indeed, I have been following trends via this: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

Fascinating. Got me thinking. I suppose it shows that COVId-19 has spread at the same rate in each country until stalled by social distancing/lockdowns.

There is no time axis so the fact that the US is further along the straight line only indicates that they had more population to infect. BUT china should be further along the line, it looks like they nipped it in the bud a wee bit. Presumably the lockdown was more draconian and so its not representative of the entire population - just Wuhan.

What this leads me to is why oh why did the Western world let international travel continue once it was obvious in China/Whan. Were we too busy pointing fingers at China assuming it was their fault so their problem only ?.

 

[bramling]

You could reduce restrictions whilst maintaining travel restrictions. You can do more stuff locally but you can’t travel to do it

I don't trust people to abide by it. I've already seen an increase in people travelling these last couple of days. For example as I write this someone I know is driving from Humberside to London and back to buy a dog. There's people who have cottoned on to the trains being empty and fancying it as a chance to hang out and/or get up to mischief.

 

[Meerkat]

What this leads me to is why oh why did the Western world let international travel continue

Because international travel is disproportionately important to the establishment people who influence the decisions.....