Does the Government know how people are behaving

[Bantamzen]

*

There's no evidence either way. Who's to say if we go into a second wave people won't be infected again?
This is a totally new virus to science. A lot is still being learnt about it. To say herd immunity can be achieved by letting the virus spread unchecked through the population is false.
Initially scientists were saying that healthy people would only get a mild illness and then fully recover. Months later, many formerly healthy people have still not fully recovered, and are left with lasting health problems, despite getting over the initial infection.

Not quite, it is a new variant to a family of viruses. And science has already found some similarities in it's proteins that not only offer the chances to find at least some treatments, but could actually trigger an immune response in at least some people exposed to other variants of the same viral family.

This thread might be of interest:

We have more immunity to SARS-CoV-2 than thought

Firstly, a lot of people appear to think that anyone who does not have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies has no immunity against the virus; this is false. Anyone who has been exposed to other coronaviruses (some of which are deemed to be "common cold" viruses, though not all "common cold" viruses are...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[BJames]

If immunity cannot be acquired through a vaccine or herd immunity, we have to move to attempt to eliminate the virus and get cases as close to zero as possible.

Scotland is almost there with this. New Zealand has shown that this can be done, with a strict lockdown for a few months and a highly effective, well run and fully resourced track, trace and isolate program in place. Of course after a deacde of systematic cuts to the UK's public health infratsructure, our track and trace system pales in comparison to New Zealand's, and the less said about our 'world beating' track and trace app the better.

New Zealand has gone down the route of elimination. Good for them. But every person entering the country will enter a strict 14-day quarantine until the virus is not present anywhere else in the world, or the virus WILL come back to New Zealand, spread out of control and the strict lockdown will have been for nothing. While closing the borders may be considered to be a small price, it's worth considering that in the year ending March 2019, according to New Zealand's Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment:

"International tourism expenditure increased 5.2 percent ($843 million) to $17.2 billion, and contributed 20.4 percent to New Zealand’s total exports of goods and services."

The point is that elimination can only ever be partially effective unless EVERY country in the world follows this. The UK government can't force the rest of the world to do this so the only available option is herd immunity.

Agreed on the point of track and trace though. It's a let down, and as @Bletchleyite has said before, it's basically a "phone a friend" service if you can't be bothered. A huge waste of taxpayers money.

 

[BJames]

On the wider question of "does the government know how people are behaving"... I have to wonder sometimes. I can't imagine they'd be that naive to assume that everything is going the way they think it is, but at the same time, I have actually seen such little evidence of social distancing recently (I spent the day in Central London today) that trusting the public's "common sense" doesn't seem to follow.

 

[Reliablebeam]

I would place good money on BoJo himself being totally disconnected from the real world. I would bet if he was a normal private citizen he would take no notice of these restrictions. Interestingly, many of my social circle fit the Champaign socialist demographic and seem to have the belief that lockdowns are for little people, not them. I fall into the camp of obeyed the restrictions with a grumpy face - NOT happening a second time around, forget it.

The rest of the cabinet and Cummings? They at best seem clueless, and there have been press rumours that cabinet gets no real say anyway. Cummings is the wild card in this - I suspect he is very taken with these crazy mathematical modellers like Ferguson, Edmonds, Kucharski who produce ludicrous Monte Carlo codes for unworkable social bubbles.

I see Hancock has been mouthing off again. I wonder whether he will slapped down again?

 

[CaptainHaddock]

On the wider question of "does the government know how people are behaving"... I have to wonder sometimes. I can't imagine they'd be that naive to assume that everything is going the way they think it is, but at the same time, I have actually seen such little evidence of social distancing recently (I spent the day in Central London today) that trusting the public's "common sense" doesn't seem to follow.

Is social distancing outdoors even important any more? There doesn't seem to be any evidence that passing close by someone in the open air spreads the virus.

 

[BJames]

Is social distancing outdoors even important any more? There doesn't seem to be any evidence that passing close by someone in the open air spreads the virus.

In my opinion it's not - I was trying to say that fortunately everyone else seems to have reached the same conclusion.

 

[mmh]

Is social distancing outdoors even important any more? There doesn't seem to be any evidence that passing close by someone in the open air spreads the virus.

On that front Matt Hancock made what I think is a pretty foolish remark today - "the virus doesn't respect that it's a hot summer's day." Well of course it doesn't, but it's hardly helpful and neither is the continuing anthropomorphising of a virus.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In my opinion it's not - I was trying to say that fortunately everyone else seems to have reached the same conclusion.

Well, there seems to be plenty of evidence of a number of major incidents where distancing was not applied, during none of which a major spike has occurred. It could be that that was because nobody was there who was infected, of course, but given that it is still knocking around the general population (a nursery in MK has closed yesterday due to 20 infections, for example, mostly asymptomatic) it si highly unlikely that there wasn't even one in such a large crowd.

On that front Matt Hancock made what I think is a pretty foolish remark today - "the virus doesn't respect that it's a hot summer's day." Well of course it doesn't, but it's hardly helpful and neither is the continuing anthropomorphising of a virus.

It does to some extent - the heat and UV causes it not to live quite as long on surfaces. I suspect the low infection rates outside have more to do with circulating air dispersing it, however.

 

[mmh]

Well, there seems to be plenty of evidence of a number of major incidents where distancing was not applied, during none of which a major spike has occurred. It could be that that was because nobody was there who was infected, of course, but given that it is still knocking around the general population (a nursery in MK has closed yesterday due to 20 infections, for example, mostly asymptomatic) it si highly unlikely that there wasn't even one in such a large crowd.

Indeed. I think it's quite likely that we'll see many of these localised "outbreaks" in workplaces now infection rates are so low. I don't think they're particularly something to worry about, there's an inevitability to it and providing they're managed sensibly locally with measures like isolation of those affected they shouldn't affect general policies. There's certainly no benefit from some of the hysteria I've heard about the outbreak at the Anglesey chicken factory, but alas much of that is very blatantly politically motivated.

 

[Class195]

I often wonder`if Government Ministers and others who keep thanking us for playing our part in reducing the transmission of the virus are aware what happens in real life outside their own bubble. For example:-

Wholesale failure to observe social distancing (2m or 1m to come) measures.
Refusing to wear masks where required on trains.
Large gatherings, even raves, taking place.
Travelling further than limits imposed.

These are just a few examples but it goes to illustrate that many people are in general just ignoring the rules. Nor everybody I know , but what seems to be quite a proportion of people. Are the government aware of this situation or just detached from the real world.

The Dominic Cummings effect.

 

[bramling]

Is social distancing outdoors even important any more? There doesn't seem to be any evidence that passing close by someone in the open air spreads the virus.

I’m not necessarily disputing the gist of this, however we do still have a quite high rate of infection, considering we’ve technically been on lockdown for three months now. Naturally this isn’t translating into deaths because of the shielding - which seems to have been much better complied with by those involved, no doubt because they can envisage what might happen if they don’t comply. My neighbour, for example, has barely been out at all since early March.

This *could* present a problem as ultimately the shielding group cannot stay like this indefinitely, and as a society I think most people would agree it’s unreasonable to expect them to. However equally economic activity *has* to go on.

*If* the virus does kick off again significantly the government and us as a society could end up having to face some *very* tough decisions. We could have a highly wounding polarisation between pro-lockdown and pro-economy, for example. Still, for the time being I’m sure people will continue to enjoy their time at the beach...

 

[yorkie]

Someone made a good point on Twitter:

Regarding the young doing the conga in Kelvingrove Park: The young people need services toilets / therapy / play opportunities / youth work presence ... shame we can’t be more responsive and creative and all we have is police to move them on

People who usually run activities for young people are currently prevented from running any activities for them.

Do people think it's a good idea to go for many more weeks of summer with nothing for young people to do, other than hang out amongst themselves?

 

[HSTEd]

This *could* present a problem as ultimately the shielding group cannot stay like this indefinitely, and as a society I think most people would agree it’s unreasonable to expect them to. However equally economic activity *has* to go on.

Ironically a suppression strategy could end up hurting them, because the longer this goes on the longer they have to keep shielding.
A mitigated epidemic would have been pretty much over by mid August, earlier if a handful of bank holidays had been blocked out to kill the epidemic the second R drops below 1 from herd immunity.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

As much as Sturgeon would love a border wall complete with guard towers and barbed wire, Scotland is not going to be able to maintain zero cases if anywhere else in the UK has them.
New Zealand is an isolated agrarian economy at the end of the world, they got very lucky in that there caseload was extremely small and even there maintaining zero cases is proving to be a challenge.
Worth noting that Australia and New Zealand never had endemic smallpox!

That was never feasible in the UK, we almost certainly got hit hard before we even knew what was happening.

Well if England can't get a grip it's infection rates and Scotland can (Scotland registered only 2 deaths and 5 new cases yesterday compared with 149 deaths and 1118 cases for the whole of the UK) then some temporary border travel restrictions may well be necessary

 

[bramling]

Well if England is can't get a grip it's infection rates and Scotland can (Scotland registered only 2 deaths and 5 new cases yesterday compared with 149 deaths and 1118 cases for the whole of the UK) then some temporary border travel restrictions may well be necessary

The problem is how long is temporary. Any country can get a grip on their infection rates with a harsh lockdown, but can only maintain that with solid border control. She may wish to install some kind of Nicola’s Wall, but in the same way we can’t close borders forever from the rest of the world, she can’t close the English border forever. And ultimately, going back to behaviour, how do you enforce it? Ultimately it’s simply not viable.

 

[HSTEd]

Well if England can't get a grip it's infection rates and Scotland can (Scotland registered only 2 deaths and 5 new cases yesterday compared with 149 deaths and 1118 cases for the whole of the UK) then some temporary border travel restrictions may well be necessary

With numbers that small its very hard for it to be statistically significant.

Normalised to the UK figure, assuming equal infection rates we would expect 11 deaths.

The difference between 2 and 11 is not really that substantial.


And as to cases, Scotland carried out a total of 4,253 tests on the 24th of June.
The UK carried out 232,086 tests on the 24th of June.

The UK is testing ~4.5x per capita what Scotland is.

The vast majority of the caseload difference can be accounted for like that. Otherwise coronavirus in Scotland has a rather terrifying fatality rate!

The differences are nowhere near sufficient to justify her setting up a border fence, although she desperately wants one so she can get the people of Scotland used to a hard border with England - because thats where her plan for independence takes her post brexit.

 

[Mojo]

Good old 'British common sense', which is what Johnson now wants us to use to 'control the virus', has resulted in emergency services along the south coast of England declaring a major incident as emergency services can't cope with the sheer numbers of people who've all used their 'common sense' and decided to crowd onto packed beaches during a pandemic and public health emergency.

The UK Westminster government know full well people are idiots. But by saying people should use their 'common sense' and not telling people what to do, the blame can be squarely placed on the public when the second wave comes later in the summer.

And the right wing free libertarians who want all the coronavirus rules and restrictions relaxed immediately wonder why Scotland and Wales have been much more cautious in easing their virus restrictions?

Major incident declared as people flock to England's south coast

Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council says services are ‘completely overstretched’ as visitors defy advice to stay away

www.theguardian.com

They told us there would be a second spike after people in London “flocked” to parks. They told us that VE Day was “irresponsible.” The people who went to Durdle Door, Peak District and Southend were “Covidiots.” The first Black Lives Matter protests were “stupid.”

None of these things led to a worsening of the situation and people have seen through it. People were enjoying the hot and dry weather. Having fun.

It seems this news story, which was given greater prominence than another “major incident” that happened yesterday, that being the injury, including hospitalisation of a significant number of police officers in south London following an illegal rave was a total set up to divert attention.

 

[Bantamzen]

They told us there would be a second spike after people in London “flocked” to parks. They told us that VE Day was “irresponsible.” The people who went to Durdle Door, Peak District and Southend were “Covidiots.” The first Black Lives Matter protests were “stupid.”

None of these things led to a worsening of the situation and people have seen through it. People were enjoying the hot and dry weather. Having fun.

It seems this news story, which was given greater prominence than another “major incident” that happened yesterday, that being the injury, including hospitalisation of a significant number of police officers in south London following an illegal rave was a total set up to divert attention.

I've been watching the data as its been coming in, and as you say these various events did not trigger a spike, even after 21 days beyond each one. This does suggest that outdoors transmission is not a major source of infection. But I'll be keeping an eye on the data to see if the rolling 7 days trend moves upwards or further downwards over the coming weeks, which should provide us with a better picture.

One thing does trouble me about this, as the weather forecasts came in that we were going to have a few very hot days, some of the news channels seemed to home in on coastal resorts, despatching correspondents to report live from them right from the start of each day. Its almost as if they were somehow willing these events to happen, so that they could then report the outrage to them.

 

[yorksrob]

It's one of those to watch over the next three weeks.

Some commentators have said "well we're not so worried about people on beaches, but if they came here in crowded railway carriages...."

Assuming large numbers did go by train, if the effect on infection rates is limited, it might show that public transport isn't as much of a danger as some believe.

 

[duncanp]

Assuming large numbers did go by train, if the effect on infection rates is limited, it might show that public transport isn't as much of a danger as some believe.

SShhh, don't tell Transport For Wales, Northern Rail, Transport For London... etc, etc.

They might actually have to start welcoming people back on to their services, rather than treating them like something that they have just trodden in.

 

[yorksrob]

SShhh, don't tell Transport For Wales, Northern Rail, Transport For London... etc, etc.

They might actually have to start welcoming people back on to their services, rather than treating them like something that they have just trodden in.

Now that would never do !!

Transport for London is one to watch in this respect as from my understanding, Londoners have returned to it as a normal passenger railway anyway.

 

[Bantamzen]

In answer to the OP's question, does the government know how people are behaving, the answer is quite simply yes they do.

Coronavirus: Prof Chris Whitty warns public over gatherings in hot weather

The UK's chief medical adviser says coronavirus cases will rise if people ignore social distancing.

www.bbc.co.uk

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said the government has the power to shut down beaches if necessary.

Speaking on talkRADIO, Mr Hancock said he was reluctant to use it "because people have had a pretty tough lockdown" but he added: "If we see a spike in the number of cases we will take action."

So the Health Secretary is quite aware, but is also aware that people's patience is starting to run very thin. He knows, as does the government that as temperatures rise, lockdown patience will reduce further. He will have also observed that last month's bank holidays did not appear to trigger new spikes, suggesting that outdoor activities are not necessarily the major source of infections, and so can allow a bit of wriggle room. He does have the option of closing large areas like the beaches if needs be, but hopefully after the initial rush people will start to spread out again.

Edit: Worryingly it seems down in Australia panic-buying is rampant again in some places following on from some localised spikes there, I really hope that the fear deeply instilled into our population doesn't trigger another round here. I have long suspected that panic-buying here might have actually been the trigger for the April peak, and not people going to footie matches & race meetings. I might have a play with the data around those dates to see if anything shows.

 

[Scrotnig]

Odd thing. The weather the past two days is such that the last place I'd want to be anywhere near is a beach!

A big walk in fridge - that's where I'd want to be.

I like beaches in the depths of winter when they are windswept, cold, big crashing waves and there's not another soul for miles. Bliss!

 

[Siemens Staines]

It's one of those to watch over the next three weeks.

Some commentators have said "well we're not so worried about people on beaches, but if they came here in crowded railway carriages...."

Assuming large numbers did go by train, if the effect on infection rates is limited, it might show that public transport isn't as much of a danger as some believe.

Do you mean like this?

https://twitter.com/Ali_inUK/status/1275889041511190529

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's one of those to watch over the next three weeks.

Some commentators have said "well we're not so worried about people on beaches, but if they came here in crowded railway carriages...."

Assuming large numbers did go by train, if the effect on infection rates is limited, it might show that public transport isn't as much of a danger as some believe.

Or if they were wearing masks, that those are adequate to make public transport adequately safe.

 

[Scrotnig]

Don't believe the press hype - the vast majority of people are doing their best to comply with the regulations and this is factored into calculations.

 

[yorksrob]

Do you mean like this?

https://twitter.com/Ali_inUK/status/1275889041511190529

Yes, precisely like that.

Or if they were wearing masks, that those are adequate to make public transport adequately safe.

Assuming compliance has been high as with elsewhere and a large spike doesn't materialise, you could have that as a working assumption.

Of course, to be sure, you'd have to have two trains with similar travelling conditions, one with masks and one without and compare infection rates, but I can't see that experiment getting approval !

 

[6862]

There's absolutely zero proof at the moment that people can't get the virus twice, or three, four, or five times. There have been numerous cases around the world of people testing positive for the virus twice, after initially recovering from it.

There is zero evidence of people getting the virus more than once.

There have been numerous cases around the world of people testing positive for the virus twice, after initially recovering from it.

Not true. There are a few cases of people testing positive for a second time due to scraps of the virus being left behind after recovery.

Neither of these is absolute proof that we can't be reinfected, but that is what the majority of the evidence suggests.

 

[Skymonster]

For those that think we should just use ‘common sense’ in regards to coronavirus, the scenes from the beaches of the South Coast over the last couple of days show that ‘common sense’ isn’t very common.

If you dig beyond the headline pictures, which were taken with telephoto lenses to compress perspective (which makes objects appear nearer than they really are), you will find other pictures that show social distancing has largely been followed on beaches with the clusters appearing to be small family units (and there's nothing wrong with that). Of course that doesn't make a headline though.

Part of the crowding problem though has been caused by the government's ill-conceived reopening process. There are plenty of families at home, parents furloughed, kids off school and its hot. Plenty of "normal" places like theme parks, swimming pools and lidos, etc are still closed so when it gets hot where does a restless family decide to go - the seaside, because they know its open. And I don't blame anyone who had that thought. And as for the councils that are saying "don't come here" - disgraceful - I hope people who are spurned now remember that when those local economies are in a mess next winter, and do NOT help out when those areas are begging for business and support.

And as for those who think we are setting ourselves up for another major lockdown, I don't agree. The country is much better set up to deal with the virus now, the majority are taking precautions, and it appears that large outdoor events are not the catalysts for infection they have been made out to be anyway. Scientists such as dim-Whitty / half-Whitty are merely trying to cover their own asses and defend their past positions - they have taken a science-over-emotion approach that was, and is, unrealistic and unnecessary and has caused the country huge economic misery for years.

 

[Tezza1978]

Agree 100% with you @Skymonster

Sick of the scaremongering in the press. We now need the rail companies to acknowledge that people ARE going to travel for leisure and non "key worker" business trips and start offering advance tickets again