how the uk would be prepared to live if a vaccine couldnt be found

[bramling]

I would love for that to be the case, but my suspicion is that the majority of those ranting on social media
about indefinite lockdowns, covidiots on the beaches, keeping schools closed until a vaccine etc, either:

- have extremely secure, mainly public sector jobs such as nurses, teachers, council workers, railway staff(?!), etc.

- live full time on benefits, or are housewives whose husband has a job in the first category.

- are pensioners who have long since paid off their mortgage


Because such people would not be directly affected by an economic meltdown,
they will continue to spout their paranoid propaganda.


Does anyone know any 'corona moaners' who do not fall into one of the above three categories?



MARK

I can only speak for a sample of one of those groups (railway staff), however there doesn’t seem to be a mass clamour for lockdown there. On the contrary most people I know are sick of the upheaval, and normalised themselves to “just getting on with it” ages ago, and are now aware of the fact that they’ve worked for 5-6 months through this to no ill effect, even at the time when it was spreading rampant. The only exception I can think of is one who is still off shielding who thinks we should still be on lockdown (to be fair he does have a fairly major underlying condition).

From social media it seems to be more the furloughed and working from home types who seem to want the gift to keep on giving.

 

[Huntergreed]

I’ve just learned that a boy who I knew has taken his own life last night as a result of a battle with depression over the last few months

If I wasn’t committed to ensuring the impact on mental wellbeing was well known before, I’m beyond determined now. This is so damaging on the mental wellbeing of many, many young people (and I include myself to some degree) and I absolutely do not agree that this level of restrictions is acceptable to allow those who are in the last years of their lives to live a couple extra years. This is causing so much hurt and pain to business owners, to young people and society and I feel increasingly angry and frustrated that nobody in Parliament is taking this stance because either they’re too afraid of the virus or they’re too afraid of the public backlash they’ll receive when they say it.

 

[LAX54]

I don't think there are that many people who "want to stay at home forever". I also don't think there are that many people who want all measures removed, either; this Forum has a majority of them, but it does generally have a strongly libertarian leaning at times, evidenced by things like the overriding view being that competition is a panacea for all the railway's problems.

Oddly, or not oddly... I only know of one person that may have had C19, but I do know quite a few who have been furloughed, and collegues at work who know quite a few too, and a majority of those are more than happy being at home on 80% wages and no travel expneses.......no doubt they will have a different story if their job goes down the plug hole with many others, Is furlough just putting off the inevitable for some ?

 

[Meerkat]

I would point out that whilst Covid doesn’t seem very fatal to most there are some worrying stories about possible long term effects on those who have had it.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I would point out that whilst Covid doesn’t seem very fatal to most there are some worrying stories about possible long term effects on those who have had it.

Yes, how many in comparison to the number of confirmed cases?

 

[DB]

I would point out that whilst Covid doesn’t seem very fatal to most there are some worrying stories about possible long term effects on those who have had it.

Which seem to be very rare...

 

[philosopher]

I can only speak for a sample of one of those groups (railway staff), however there doesn’t seem to be a mass clamour for lockdown there. On the contrary most people I know are sick of the upheaval, and normalised themselves to “just getting on with it” ages ago, and are now aware of the fact that they’ve worked for 5-6 months through this to no ill effect, even at the time when it was spreading rampant. The only exception I can think of is one who is still off shielding who thinks we should still be on lockdown (to be fair he does have a fairly major underlying condition).

From social media it seems to be more the furloughed and working from home types who seem to want the gift to keep on giving.

I can get why so many of those working from home will see these restrictions as a gift that keeps on giving, particularly if they have a long stressful commute. However for those who have been furloughed, it may just be me, but if I was in that situation I would pretty worried that I would have no job at the end of all this, so would not be enjoying this situation.

 

[Richard Scott]

I would point out that whilst Covid doesn’t seem very fatal to most there are some worrying stories about possible long term effects on those who have had it.

The long term worrying effect was posted two above yours. I'm sorry but a youngster taking their own life is far more serious concern to me than a few more virus cases or one or two people with long term effects. This is, unfortunately, not an isolated incident but then those who only care about the virus won't take any notice. Shame as we really need to take care of our younger generation, they've been neglected throughout this.

 

[Yew]

I would be genuinely interested to read papers looking at these side effects. The relative prevalence could have quite an impact on my views.

 

[bramling]

I can get why so many of those working from home will see these restrictions as a gift that keeps on giving, particularly if they have a long stressful commute. However for those who have been furloughed, it may just be me, but if I was in that situation I would pretty worried that I would have no job at the end of all this, so would not be enjoying this situation.

I do get the feeling that some, certainly not all, seem to feel that furlough is some kind of natural entitlement which will always be available for as long as this situation persists.

 

[johnnychips]

I think, and I know @yorkie will agree with me, that most teachers will be delighted to get back to work unless they or their partners have some underlying condition.
It’s all very well setting work from home, rewriting course units and so on but I really miss working with real, actual students.

To relate to the topic of the thread, I found out today that our hundred students will be split into four ‘bubbles’ who are not supposed to interact with each other. That’s going to be fun to attempt to enforce.

 

[yorkie]

I would point out that whilst Covid doesn’t seem very fatal to most there are some worrying stories about possible long term effects on those who have had it.

very one sided view; more realistically: I would point out that whilst Covid clearly doesn’t harm most there are many worrying reports about definite long term effects on mental health & livelihoods due to the impacts of mitigations taken to slow the spread.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I do get the feeling that some, certainly not all, seem to feel that furlough is some kind of natural entitlement which will always be available for as long as this situation persists.

I'm sure they're gutted that they don't/didn't work in Germany, as their furlough scheme is expected to be extended to 24 months.

Germany to extend coronavirus furlough to 24 months

Angela Merkel backs proposal to continue Kurzarbeit part-time working scheme

www.theguardian.com

Germany is expected to extend its pandemic furlough scheme to 24 months after Angela Merkel indicated that she welcomed the proposal to let the Kurzarbeit programme run on.

The chancellor’s spokesperson said on Monday she was “positively” inclined towards the suggestion to extend the scheme, which allows firms to put their staff on part-time work to reduce their cost. Britain’s furlough scheme initially only allowed staff to be sent home and not work, but staff have been allowed to work part-time since July.

The finance minister, Olaf Scholz, first proposed extending the benefit programme, which is currently limited to claims lasting a maximum of 12 months, on Sunday. “The corona crisis won’t suddenly disappear in the next few weeks,” said Scholz, who was recently announced as the centre-left Social Democrats’ candidate for chancellor in next year’s elections.

Worth noting, however, that it will only cost ~£9bn - a stark comparison to the ~£25bn the UK scheme already costs. From what I've gathered, it also relies on employees working part-time, not sitting on their sofa 24/7 replying to comments on Facebook (other social media platforms are available).

Slightly off-topic, mind... this might warrant its own thread.

 

[yorkie]

I think, and I know @yorkie will agree with me, that most teachers will be delighted to get back to work unless they or their partners have some underlying condition.

Agreed; that's the feedback I've got from the teachers I've spoken to.

The long term worrying effect was posted two above yours. I'm sorry but a youngster taking their own life is far more serious concern to me than a few more virus cases or one or two people with long term effects....

Agreed; if we have to live with the virus, then so be it; we already have to live with viruses like 'flu, which can also have severe side effects, as well as 'flu typically killing around 12 children aged under 15 annually in England alone:

The burden of influenza in England by age and clinical risk group: A statistical analysis to inform vaccine policy

To assess the burden of influenza by age and clinical status and use this to inform evaluations of the age and risk-based influenza vaccination policy…

www.sciencedirect.com

Mortality in children under 15 years was low with around 12 influenza-attributable deaths in hospital per year in England

I’ve just learned that a boy who I knew has taken his own life last night as a result of a battle with depression over the last few months
....

Very saddening to hear of this. Cases such as this are not deemed newsworthy as they didn't die of the virus, as that's the only thing the hysterical brigade seem to care about; it's a totally different story when people die due to the implementation of onerous mitigations to slow the spread of the virus.

Doubt if it'll even be that long - I reckon Christmas is going to be the crunch point where people will have had enough of it.

If that! The vaccine should be being rolled out by then; if not, we just need to go back to normal regardless.

...we just need to get back to a normal normal asap, the after effects are far more damaging than the infection, see that domestic abuse has risen by 65%-70% in the past few months, at work we have seen an increase in people .... in a depressed state...

I agree; sadly the hysterical brigade are incapable of seeing the bigger picture. But the vocal minority do not speak for the majority.

...As to the wider point, that poll doesn't make me depressed as much as it makes me angry. The fact a huge proportion of our population would be willing to exist like this (it's not really living, is it?) for the rest of their lives is shameful...

The attitude of some individuals angers me too, but trust me: more and more people are waking up to reality and seeing the bigger picture.

I would love for that to be the case, but my suspicion is that the majority of those ranting on social media
about indefinite lockdowns, covidiots on the beaches, keeping schools closed until a vaccine etc, either:

- have extremely secure, mainly public sector jobs such as nurses, teachers, council workers, railway staff(?!), etc.

- live full time on benefits, or are housewives whose husband has a job in the first category.

- are pensioners who have long since paid off their mortgage

Because such people would not be directly affected by an economic meltdown,
they will continue to spout their paranoid propaganda.

Does anyone know any 'corona moaners' who do not fall into one of the above three categories?

MARK

Yes, some people who are in well paid jobs in the private sector with a decent home office set up (and, often, gardens too).

But other than that you are spot on, though I hasten to add that most people in these categories are not like this, only some are!

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I just don't believe that people would actually be prepared to accept it long term.

And it ignores the economic impact,which will force the issue if things carry on as they are for much longer.

Don’t worry. There will be lots of jobs available, policing one-way systems at major stations, for example.
At Clapham Junction, from 6am until at least 10pm, there are two, sometimes three people at each of the staircases leading up (or down) to platform islands. There are at least 24 staircases to be manned, over a period of 16 hours. That’s the equivalent of over 100 full-time jobs, just at one station...
(assuming the railways still exist)

 

[trebor79]

I would point out that whilst Covid doesn’t seem very fatal to most there are some worrying stories about possible long term effects on those who have had it.

Yes, how many in comparison to the number of confirmed cases?

Which seem to be very rare...

A bit like all the scare stories of young children getting wires secondary illnesses. So far as I can ascertain, this was literally a handful of children, and may or may not have been anything covid related. Those stories seem to have disappeared.

 

[bramling]

Don’t worry. There will be lots of jobs available, policing one-way systems at major stations, for example.
At Clapham Junction, from 6am until at least 10pm, there are two, sometimes three people at each of the staircases leading up (or down) to platform islands. There are at least 24 staircases to be manned, over a period of 16 hours. That’s the equivalent of over 100 full-time jobs, just at one station...
(assuming the railways still exist)

Euston has something like 5 people in lilac hi-vis gracing the entrance to the Underground station, though as this is NR property I presume these are contracted by NR. They’ve been there for a month or two now, and I’ve yet to see what they actually do, apart from eyeballing people as they enter or leave the station.

 

[island]

Around a million of those jobs have been lost so far in this sector and more will go as operators have been, and to a certain extent still are operating in a hugely artificial and manipulated environment (rates holidays, VAT holidays, grants, loans, furlough etc). Fast forward to next year when rates have to be paid again and the loan payments have started and an industry with notoriously slim margins could be decimated.

The industry will be very lucky indeed if it is merely decimated.

 

[BJames]

But again. This research uses important phrases such as "half the population (49%)" but then lower down you see that they've only interviewed 2,237 people ("The study is based on 2,237 interviews with UK residents aged 16-75, carried out online between 17 and 20 July 2020.").

This is not a big enough sample to say that this is what half the population think, and it's certainly not representative.

As before and mentioned upthread too, I think the serious economic impacts being felt in the autumn and going forward might start to focus minds.

As for the suggestion that the forum has different views to the general public, while we may lean in one direction not a single one of my friends from home is a member of this forum and yet we all seem to be in agreement that we need to return to normal, with their families generally thinking so too.

If people want to put up with long term restrictions then they can. I have been travelling around the country extensively recently, getting out and about visiting restaurants, pubs and people I haven't seen in a while. I have not once felt "unsafe".

One example though of someone being paranoid was when I boarded the tram in Nottingham the other day. It was busy, late morning and heading in the direction of the city. This lady sitting on one of the flip-up seats by the doors shouted at me to "GO OVER THERE NOW!" I asked where exactly she expected me to go and she said "DISTANCING", completely ignoring my question or the fact that going "over there" would have actually placed me in closer proximity to others than I was to her. My friends were with me and agreed she was just being selfish - trying to get us to stand closer to other people who were likely just as at risk as her makes no sense, and we had literally just boarded the tram. This is what the fear being driven has done to some people and I think you're best off avoiding public transport if you are going to be that worried.

 

[philosopher]

But again. This research uses important phrases such as "half the population (49%)" but then lower down you see that they've only interviewed 2,237 people ("The study is based on 2,237 interviews with UK residents aged 16-75, carried out online between 17 and 20 July 2020.").

This is not a big enough sample to say that this is what half the population think, and it's certainly not representative.

As before and mentioned upthread too, I think the serious economic impacts being felt in the autumn and going forward might start to focus minds.

As for the suggestion that the forum has different views to the general public, while we may lean in one direction not a single one of my friends from home is a member of this forum and yet we all seem to be in agreement that we need to return to normal, with their families generally thinking so too.

I do wonder how truthful people are in these polls. My suspicion is a lot of people in these polls give the response they think the pollster wants to hear and not their genuine view. Reading a lot comments on news websites, there does seem to be quite a bit of support for returning to something closer to normal, certainly support for this view seems a lot higher than the polls indicate. It seems to be a more 50 : 50 split in news website in support for continuing social distancing vs a return to normal.

 

[Meerkat]

I do wonder how truthful people are in these polls. My suspicion is a lot of people in these polls give the response they think the pollster wants to hear and not their genuine view. Reading a lot comments on news websites, there does seem to be quite a bit of support for returning to something closer to normal, certainly support for this view seems a lot higher than the polls indicate. It seems to be a more 50 : 50 split in news website in support for continuing social distancing vs a return to normal.

Judging by social media a lot of people agree with restrictions....for other people.

 

[Chester1]

I'm sure they're gutted that they don't/didn't work in Germany, as their furlough scheme is expected to be extended to 24 months.

Germany to extend coronavirus furlough to 24 months

Angela Merkel backs proposal to continue Kurzarbeit part-time working scheme

www.theguardian.com

Worth noting, however, that it will only cost ~£9bn - a stark comparison to the ~£25bn the UK scheme already costs. From what I've gathered, it also relies on employees working part-time, not sitting on their sofa 24/7 replying to comments on Facebook (other social media platforms are available).

Slightly off-topic, mind... this might warrant its own thread.

Kurzarbeit translates as "short-work". Its not a furlough scheme. I am surprised the government set the date of 31st October for end of furlough scheme. It should have ended 31st July for sectors that reopened. A part time support scheme until April 2022 for companies previously registered on furlough scheme would help those whose employers who are struggling but can provide some work. Something like a minimum of 60% of pre pandemic hours and pay, topped up by 20% taxpayer funding would save a lot of jobs.

 

[greyman42]

I take particular task with people complaining that hospitality has been allowed to reopen - this is a sector that employs - directly and indirectly - 6 million people and is worth around £150bn PA to the UK economy.

Around a million of those jobs have been lost so far in this sector and more will go as operators have been, and to a certain extent still are operating in a hugely artificial and manipulated environment (rates holidays, VAT holidays, grants, loans, furlough etc). Fast forward to next year when rates have to be paid again and the loan payments have started and an industry with notoriously slim margins could be decimated.

I completely agree. The people complaining about hospitality being allowed to re-open probably have no idea how important it is to the UK economy regarding the jobs it provides and the amount of money it puts into it. Hospitality also overlaps into other sectors and if it fails then these sectors are going to struggle to make profits.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

I completely agree. The people complaining about hospitality being allowed to re-open probably have no idea how important it is to the UK economy regarding the jobs it provides and the amount of money it puts into it. Hospitality also overlaps into other sectors and if it fails then these sectors are going to struggle to make profits.

This is what the the theatre and event industries are pushing at - we're worth several billion to the UK economy alone but we also drive even more in other sectors such as hospitality. For example the closure of the theatres in London is crucifying the restaurants and bars around the West End as they are highly interdependent for trade. Very little in the economy stands in isolation

 

[LAX54]

Yes, how many in comparison to the number of confirmed cases?

There was a bit on the BBC News today (Weds) and a few were interviewed, a couple said that after C19, they have been suffering from fatigue ever since, and it is debilitating, however that is not cofined to Covid, My wife had flu in 2018, this turned into pneumonia, and rushed to Hospital, was in for about 3 weeks, and even after coming home took months to recover, but the lasting rssult from that is fatigue, she gets tired very very easily, so this is not confined to Covid, but more of a common trait with this type of virus.

 

[furlong]

On the surveys, I think the people designing them seem to be building a lot of bias into the questions, accepting most of the government's assertions at face value and just not capturing contrary viewpoints. Filling them in is very time-consuming so people spending most of the day at home are probably over-represented. (20% of those who filled in one widely-reported ONS survey claimed they had visited a health or medical centre in the last week and worn a face covering there, indicative either of a substantial sampling bias or false data.) Most surveys provide small incentives for completing them, but often screen you out if you aren't in the right demographic, and so I would guess there's some group of people who create profiles belonging to the rarer demographics so that they can get past that screening and receive the incentives. The surveys I've looked at seem to take the view that a vaccine will be a magic bullet that solves everything at a stroke, and masks are usually mentioned only as one of a list of measures to choose from that will encourage people to re-engage in activities.

A rare survey I found today that contains bias of the opposite kind (and no incentives) is this one - https://wh.snapsurveys.com/s.asp?k=159774516489

 

[Cheshire Rover]

My personal view. A virus with a mortality rate of 0.06% of the population, nearly all of them vulnerable in some way, does not merit any action other than vulnerable people being isolated. Yes lock up nursing homes etc but the rest of us should just get on with life and accept that for the non vulnerable population this is has no higher a mortality rate than flu.

 

[Meerkat]

My personal view. A virus with a mortality rate of 0.06% of the population, nearly all of them vulnerable in some way, does not merit any action other than vulnerable people being isolated. Yes lock up nursing homes etc but the rest of us should just get on with life and accept that for the non vulnerable population this is has no higher a mortality rate than flu.

What is the hospitalisation rate though, and how fast would that overwhelm the system?
Also ‘vulnerable people being isolated’ - how practicable is that? As I understand it there are still large numbers of cases in care homes despite the extra testing and care.

 

[DB]

What is the hospitalisation rate though, and how fast would that overwhelm the system?
Also ‘vulnerable people being isolated’ - how practicable is that? As I understand it there are still large numbers of cases in care homes despite the extra testing and care.

The fact that even in April it came nowhere near to overwhelming the system (the extra hospitals set up were barely used) answers your first question - it is highly unlikely to overwhelm the system, fast or otherwise!

As regards your second point, some measures can certainly be taken but they are never going to be 100% effective. Many seem to now have the view that this virus can be wiped out in a short period of time, but the reality is that there is no precedent for this, ever, and no reason to assume it's possible. Unfortunately some people are going to die from it, and that is unavoidable. Just as it's unavoidable that some people will due from flu.

 

[anthony263]

The long term worrying effect was posted two above yours. I'm sorry but a youngster taking their own life is far more serious concern to me than a few more virus cases or one or two people with long term effects. This is, unfortunately, not an isolated incident but then those who only care about the virus won't take any notice. Shame as we really need to take care of our younger generation, they've been neglected throughout this.

Many if these youngsters have had enough of lockdown plus we are seeing the exam results disruption.

Many people need to realise many of these youngsters will be of age to vote or can already vote and the government have even admitted on BBC news its worried.

Many of these younger generations will be struggling to find work or if they do get into employment will find themselves with less money etc compared to.older generations and this is likely to cause a major rift especially if we see the older generations still going on about lockdown etc.