how the uk would be prepared to live if a vaccine couldnt be found

[Jamiescott1]

An interesting article here from kings college london

How the UK would be prepared to live if a Covid vaccine can't be found

Large proportions say they'd accept significant long-term changes

www.kcl.ac.uk

Large proportions of the UK public say they would accept most children being home-schooled, employees being able to choose whether they work from home and bans on public events in front of live audiences being in place for the “very long term”, if a vaccine or treatment that deals with the threat of Covid-19 cannot be found, according to a new study.

The research, by King’s College London and Ipsos MORI, looked at what the public say they’d find acceptable as very long-term options if it became clear over the next year or two that such a vaccine or treatment could not be produced.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thus confirming my view that we are in the present level of measures forever unless there is some outside influence e.g. a successful vaccine.

 

[Journeyman]

An interesting article here from kings college london

How the UK would be prepared to live if a Covid vaccine can't be found

Large proportions say they'd accept significant long-term changes

www.kcl.ac.uk

Unbelievably depressing.

 

[DB]

I just don't believe that people would actually be prepared to accept it long term.

And it ignores the economic impact,which will force the issue if things carry on as they are for much longer.

 

[trebor79]

Thus confirming my view that we are in the present level of measures forever unless there is some outside influence e.g. a successful vaccine.

Nah. It's nowhere near as bad as the Spanish flu pandemic and life went back to normal with no vaccine.

I just don't believe that people would actually be prepared to accept it long term.

And it ignores the economic impact,which will force the issue if things carry on as they are for much longer.

I agree. Sooner or later we will have to come to our senses and just get on with life.

 

[yorksrob]

People will say all sorts of things now. That doesn't mean to say that they'll feel the same in a year's time.

 

[DB]

People will say all sorts of things now. That doesn't mean to say that they'll feel the same in a year's time.

Doubt if it'll even be that long - I reckon Christmas is going to be the crunch point where people will have had enough of it.

 

[Huntergreed]

Unbelievably depressing.

Indeed, this really can't go on for that much longer

 

[yorksrob]

Doubt if it'll even be that long - I reckon Christmas is going to be the crunch point where people will have had enough of it.

Indeed. We'll see how things turn out.

 

[LAX54]

An interesting article here from kings college london

How the UK would be prepared to live if a Covid vaccine can't be found

Large proportions say they'd accept significant long-term changes

www.kcl.ac.uk

Unbelievably depressing.

Just doom and gloom, we just need to get back to a normal normal asap, the after effects are far more damaging than the infection, see that domestic abuse has risen by 65%-70% in the past few months, at work we have seen an increase in people on the rail line in a depressed state, and sadly a few have been hit by a train There are collegues where I work, that have freinds and family that were furloughed and have now been told there is no job to go back to. They need to take stock, and admit over reaction, and try and calm the fear they have instilled in some poeple !

 

[bramling]

I just don't believe that people would actually be prepared to accept it long term.

And it ignores the economic impact,which will force the issue if things carry on as they are for much longer.

Your last point is probably the big one, the economic impact is simply unsustainable. Continuing along the current path simply isn’t a viable medium term option, let alone a long term one, as ultimately we would not be able to fund things like the NHS. There’s already a volume of excess deaths attributable to the Covid reactions, how many of those were preventable is less clear, but one way or other restrictions have costs.

I’m not prepared for 2021 to be a repeat performance of this year. I can just about tolerate one written-off year as it’s allowed me to catch up in a few jobs at home, but beyond that no chance. It’s not good for anyone - a work colleague who has returned from shielding said how be found the lack of activity to be a major problem (he’s conspicuously put on a lot of weight), and likewise the lack of social contact.

There’s a big danger of the cure being worse than the disease, and the wider population need to wake up to this pronto. The politicians also need to pay greater attention to this, and stop paying attention to dopey furloughs who think they can be forever paid to sit at home.

As we’re seeing from the exams results fiasco there are now some pretty serious lasting consequences arising from all this, and to me that’s increasingly unacceptable.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Nah. It's nowhere near as bad as the Spanish flu pandemic and life went back to normal with no vaccine.

Back then there wasn't social media and the likes of Piers Morgan stirring things up.

As to the wider point, that poll doesn't make me depressed as much as it makes me angry. The fact a huge proportion of our population would be willing to exist like this (it's not really living, is it?) for the rest of their lives is shameful. I would rather see the choice laid out more starkly. In the absolute worst case scenario this might knock a few years off everyone's life expectancy for good, so perhaps people should be asked - would you rather live a normal life for 75 years, or would you rather live like this for 80?

 

[Richard Scott]

Well I'm definitely not prepared for that. Check me in to the nearest mental health institution.

 

[trebor79]

Back then there wasn't social media and the likes of Piers Morgan stirring things up.

As to the wider point, that poll doesn't make me depressed as much as it makes me angry. The fact a huge proportion of our population would be willing to exist like this (it's not really living, is it?) for the rest of their lives is shameful. I would rather see the choice laid out more starkly. In the absolute worst case scenario this might knock a few years off everyone's life expectancy for good, so perhaps people should be asked - would you rather live a normal life for 75 years, or would you rather live like this for 80?

The evidence is that, aside from a very few unlucky people, it doesn't really knock more than a few months off your life. Death rates are almost exactly the same as the "wall risks+whisk death rate for each age group. The fact that the overall death rate is now below the 5 year average supports this analysis, which was first suggested back in April.

 

[Reliablebeam]

It was interesting when you dig down a bit into these figures, as the authors concede, the picture becomes a lot more mixed, with some people contradicting themselves. I was pleasantly surprised by the high percentage supporting people making their own decisions about e.g. event attendance..

 

[NorthOxonian]

The evidence is that, aside from a very few unlucky people, it doesn't really knock more than a few months off your life. Death rates are almost exactly the same as the "wall risks+whisk death rate for each age group. The fact that the overall death rate is now below the 5 year average supports this analysis, which was first suggested back in April.

Oh, I can believe that - I deliberately pessimistically rounded all of my figures in my back of the envelope calculation - so I rounded up the mortality rates, rounded down the potential length of immunity, that sort of thing.

I could probably give a better figure if I looked at some life tables and the mortality rate by age (along with an educated guess about how long immunity lasts).

 

[The Prisoner]

I run a festival which has had to be postponed to 2021. If it happens again it's goodnight Vienna for us. Very little help from the Government and consumer confidence in attending at virtually zero.

We need to be respectful of this virus and take sensible precautions, but over twice as many people have died from alcohol related diseases this year and four times as many from smoking related diseases than Covid. More people have died in road traffic accidents, and over six times more have died from cancer. Nearly as many have died from suicides. https://www.worldometers.info/

The economic effects of lockdown are damaging enough. Add in the mental health issues associated with the likes of job losses and what we have just seen with the A-level results and the situation can't last much longer.

 

[Mag_seven]

The economic effects of lockdown are damaging enough.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - the economic effects have not sunk in yet. Once the people arguing for continued lockdowns, social distancing etc start losing their jobs then their tune will change. At the moment they seem to think that job losses etc only happen to "the other fella" or they don't even realise that there is any economic damage happening at all.

 

[The Prisoner]

I've said it before and I'll say it again - the economic effects have not sunk in yet. Once the people arguing for continued lockdowns, social distancing etc start losing their jobs then their tune will change. At the moment they seem to think that job losses etc only happen to "the other fella" or they don't even realise that there is any economic damage happening at all.

Absolutely. I run two businesses and some of the underlying trends are horrific. The country simply cannot afford another wholesale lockdown.

I take particular task with people complaining that hospitality has been allowed to reopen - this is a sector that employs - directly and indirectly - 6 million people and is worth around £150bn PA to the UK economy.

Around a million of those jobs have been lost so far in this sector and more will go as operators have been, and to a certain extent still are operating in a hugely artificial and manipulated environment (rates holidays, VAT holidays, grants, loans, furlough etc). Fast forward to next year when rates have to be paid again and the loan payments have started and an industry with notoriously slim margins could be decimated.

This is going to play out over a number of years and the amount of heads in the sands and "business can afford it" sentiment is astonishing.

The pubic health position is absolutely key and there is no answer as to how many deaths are or are not acceptable. My point is that the mental and economic health of our country is in my opinion on life support.

The perpetual lockdown apologists often are completely secure in their finances or simply naive as to the storm that is on the way. You can't see it, but mark my words it is coming.

 

[Mugby]

Absolutely. I run two businesses and some of the underlying trends are horrific. The country simply cannot afford another wholesale lockdown.

I take particular task with people complaining that hospitality has been allowed to reopen - this is a sector that employs - directly and indirectly - 6 million people and is worth around £150bn PA to the UK economy.

Around a million of those jobs have been lost so far in this sector and more will go as operators have been, and to a certain extent still are operating in a hugely artificial and manipulated environment (rates holidays, VAT holidays, grants, loans, furlough etc). Fast forward to next year when rates have to be paid again and the loan payments have started and an industry with notoriously slim margins could be decimated.

This is going to play out over a number of years and the amount of heads in the sands and "business can afford it" sentiment is astonishing.

The pubic health position is absolutely key and there is no answer as to how many deaths are or are not acceptable. My point is that the mental and economic health of our country is in my opinion on life support.

The perpetual lockdown apologists often are completely secure in their finances or simply naive as to the storm that is on the way. You can't see it, but mark my words it is coming.

Couldn't agree more. I'm truly astonished at how naive our politicians are about the bigger picture. The impending economic consequences are virtually too catastrophic to contemplate, yet Boris thinks "build, build, build" and everything will be fine, whilst the Chancellor doles out a few cut price meals and thinks that will re-start the economy. Labour want all the benefits and loans etc. to be widened and continued indefinitely.

I despair about what's coming down the track towards us, the future looks very bleak indeed.

 

[furlong]

The bias in the sample appears again in plain sight - "25% of workers now think they’re certain or likely to lose their job".

 

[LAX54]

Couldn't agree more. I'm truly astonished at how naive our politicians are about the bigger picture. The impending economic consequences are virtually too catastrophic to contemplate, yet Boris thinks "build, build, build" and everything will be fine, whilst the Chancellor doles out a few cut price meals and thinks that will re-start the economy. Labour want all the benefits and loans etc. to be widened and continued indefinitely.

I despair about what's coming down the track towards us, the future looks very bleak indeed.

Problem is, they are backed into a corner, with no way out, they are now in a tunnel, and is seems to have no light at the end of it, those that stayed out of the tunnel,can now see the reality of it all, ou rlocal pub is part of the 'eat out', but is making no extra, Thursday/Friday/Saturday quiet, and Sundays it is now closed !

 

[bramling]

Problem is, they are backed into a corner, with no way out, they are now in a tunnel, and is seems to have no light at the end of it, those that stayed out of the tunnel,can now see the reality of it all, ou rlocal pub is part of the 'eat out', but is making no extra, Thursday/Friday/Saturday quiet, and Sundays it is now closed !

Sums it up, unfortunately. Totally backed themselves into a corner.

£10 off a meal just doesn’t cut it. When it comes to the serious stuff this government just isn’t up to it, as demonstrated by the exams fiasco.

Sunak is going to have to shift up several gears over the next few months.

 

[Freightmaster]

I've said it before and I'll say it again - the economic effects have not sunk in yet. Once the people arguing for continued lockdowns, social distancing etc start losing their jobs then their tune will change. At the moment they seem to think that job losses etc only happen to "the other fella" or they don't even realise that there is any economic damage happening at all.

I would love for that to be the case, but my suspicion is that the majority of those ranting on social media
about indefinite lockdowns, covidiots on the beaches, keeping schools closed until a vaccine etc, either:

- have extremely secure, mainly public sector jobs such as nurses, teachers, council workers, railway staff(?!), etc.

- live full time on benefits, or are housewives whose husband has a job in the first category.

- are pensioners who have long since paid off their mortgage


Because such people would not be directly affected by an economic meltdown,
they will continue to spout their paranoid propaganda.


Does anyone know any 'corona moaners' who do not fall into one of the above three categories?



MARK

 

[DB]

- have extremely secure, mainly public sector jobs such as nurses, teachers, council workers, railway staff(?!), etc.

I suspect people in those jobs (apart from possibly some council staff) are generally more pragmatic, having been out working through the past six months. Those who want to stay at home forever seem to have mostly been furloughed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I suspect people in those jobs (apart from possibly some council staff) are generally more pragmatic, having been out working through the past six months. Those who want to stay at home forever seem to have mostly been furloughed.

I don't think there are that many people who "want to stay at home forever". I also don't think there are that many people who want all measures removed, either; this Forum has a majority of them, but it does generally have a strongly libertarian leaning at times, evidenced by things like the overriding view being that competition is a panacea for all the railway's problems.

 

[DB]

I don't think there are that many people who "want to stay at home forever". I also don't think there are that many people who want all measures removed, either; this Forum has a majority of them, but it does generally have a strongly libertarian leaning at times, evidenced by things like the overriding view being that competition is a panacea for all the railway's problems.

You seem to assume that everyone who disagrees wth you has libertarian views on eveyrthing. To take your example, I don't at all agree that competition is good for railways (a joined-up system is far better). I also do not believe that anyone who objects to the government rules, which have little actual evidence of achieving anything much, is a libertarian - they have just looked at the evidence and formed their conclusion.

 

[yorksrob]

I suspect people in those jobs (apart from possibly some council staff) are generally more pragmatic, having been out working through the past six months. Those who want to stay at home forever seem to have mostly been furloughed.

I'd say council workers are probably more likely to be pragmatic where the economy is concerned, not least because council employment hasn't been secure since austerity. A lot os council income, is dependant on an active economy through business rates, events etc rather than just the central government grant.

 

[Yew]

Indeed, the number of people who equate the economy as "The profits of venture capitalists" as opposed to "jobs for you and me" is remarkably high

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Unbelievably depressing.

Indeed.

Indeed. We'll see how things turn out.

more likely

Nah. It's nowhere near as bad as the Spanish flu pandemic and life went back to normal with no vaccine.

precisely