how the uk would be prepared to live if a vaccine couldnt be found

[Tom B]

At the start of this I compared the situation to the common cold, which can kill isolated tribes in the South Americas - as they have no immunity to it.

The people who think "we should still be on lockdown its not safe" are primarily, as said above, those who have not had any personal impact - yet. They probably live in a large house with a garden and have been enjoying a few months being fully paid to be at home.

Don’t worry. There will be lots of jobs available, policing one-way systems at major stations, for example.
At Clapham Junction, from 6am until at least 10pm, there are two, sometimes three people at each of the staircases leading up (or down) to platform islands. There are at least 24 staircases to be manned, over a period of 16 hours. That’s the equivalent of over 100 full-time jobs, just at one station...
(assuming the railways still exist)

Even if we assume that these people will be kept on long term (you'll note that supermarkets etc let go the extra security after a few weeks), these jobs are undoubtedly at minimum wage on insecure contracts. OK if you need a bit of cash, not a long-term employment prospect of a quality job.

I do wonder how truthful people are in these polls. My suspicion is a lot of people in these polls give the response they think the pollster wants to hear and not their genuine view. Reading a lot comments on news websites, there does seem to be quite a bit of support for returning to something closer to normal, certainly support for this view seems a lot higher than the polls indicate. It seems to be a more 50 : 50 split in news website in support for continuing social distancing vs a return to normal.

Indeed. They say that people give the response they think they should give, rather than their genuine one - the questions are supposed to take this into account to try and minimise bias though.

 

[MarlowDonkey]

A thought I had was that the risk assessments should be done the other way round. In other words, given a restriction, is it really necessary? That's already happened to a limited extent, as supermarkets that previously had one way systems no lo0nger have them and don't seem as bothered about counting people in and counting them out. One way systems in towns are mostly ignored, so why try to enforce them in railway stations? Why not "Stop/Go" boards, traffic lights or yellow box systems to have a two way system with alternate priorities?

Presumably a risk factor like the presence of 5G masts can be dismissed, but what of a story that the disease was being spread by petrol station pumps? What of the contact theory of spread anyway? Is there hard evidence of the disease spreading in this manner?

At the back of my mind is the idea that if only one in a large number is infectious, you don't need any restrictions at all if prepared to gamble on not encountering one of the handful. That's not the same as April when it was one in quite a few. How did in spread in March before the lockdown measures? Saving the NHS by transferring possibly infected patients to care homes was one method of increasing spread and fatalities.

 

[Bantamzen]

I do wonder how truthful people are in these polls. My suspicion is a lot of people in these polls give the response they think the pollster wants to hear and not their genuine view. Reading a lot comments on news websites, there does seem to be quite a bit of support for returning to something closer to normal, certainly support for this view seems a lot higher than the polls indicate. It seems to be a more 50 : 50 split in news website in support for continuing social distancing vs a return to normal.

As @Tom B says above, it is very possible that people give the answer they think they ought to rather than their actual opinion. Its a bit like the reason so many people still say "while socially distancing of course" when telling people about their plans to go out. All the guilt & fear mongering that has come from government and media has people believing that even thinking negative thoughts about, or not verbally supporting the restrictions is some kind of thought crime.

 

[Meerkat]

The fact that even in April it came nowhere near to overwhelming the system (the extra hospitals set up were barely used) answers your first question - it is highly unlikely to overwhelm the system, fast or otherwise!

Are you sure about that?! The NHS staff seemed to be working bloody hard for a system coping easily....

 

[DB]

Are you sure about that?! The NHS staff seemed to be working bloody hard for a system coping easily....

It was nowhere near being overwhelmed. Look at the stats - the additional hospitals were barely used (some weren't used at all).

 

[Meerkat]

It was nowhere near being overwhelmed. Look at the stats - the additional hospitals were barely used (some weren't used at all).

The additional hospitals were barely functional - were they even fully staffed?
If the NHS were coping easily then why were staff making so much fuss and working such long hours?
And by the time the extra hospitals were ready restrictions were also well in effect.

 

[Bantamzen]

The additional hospitals were barely functional - were they even fully staffed?
If the NHS were coping easily then why were staff making so much fuss and working such long hours?
And by the time the extra hospitals were ready restrictions were also well in effect.

News just in, NHS staff have been working long hours for decades.

 

[Meerkat]

News just in, NHS staff have been working long hours for decades.

That’s a weak get out. Have they been hauling in student and retired doctors/nurses all those years as well?
what about Italy - their health system was struggling and the French were having to move patients around by train!
The idea that we can just shrug and carry on is ridiculous - the bare minimum is suppressing to below NHS capacity, and we don’t know how to reliably do that yet.

 

[DB]

The idea that we can just shrug and carry on is ridiculous

The idea what we can trash the economy, society and the and education system for a virus which leads to such a low proportion of hospitalisations is even more ridiculous!

 

[Meerkat]

The idea what we can trash the economy, society and the and education system for a virus which leads to such a low proportion of hospitalisations is even more ridiculous!

We have to open up, but some people think we can just go immediately back to normal!
Opening up too fast will definitely destroy the economy if the healthcare system goes pop, the workforce sickness levels explode, and a total lockdown is required.

 

[DB]

Opening up too fast will definitely destroy the economy if the healthcare system goes pop, the workforce sickness levels explode, and a total lockdown is required.

You have absolutely no evidence that this is likely to happen though! The NHS is a very long way from being overwhelmed, and in areas where there have been an increase in cases reported this has not corresponded to an increase in hospitalisations.

A total lockdown has never been 'required'- Sweden never did, and still has a lower death rate than many countries which imposed far more draconian policies.

And most of the restrictions now are little more than theatre - there's very little evidence that they are actually making much difference, apart from possibly distancing and that's the one which is being increasingly ignored (but still isn't leading to a notable rise in cases).

 

[Bantamzen]

That’s a weak get out. Have they been hauling in student and retired doctors/nurses all those years as well?
what about Italy - their health system was struggling and the French were having to move patients around by train!
The idea that we can just shrug and carry on is ridiculous - the bare minimum is suppressing to below NHS capacity, and we don’t know how to reliably do that yet.

Yes they have, for decades.

 

[MikeWM]

Here's a graph of NHS Hospital Admissions.



I've taken it from Twitter but I believe it to be accurate (it matches the data at https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/hospital-activity/monthly-hospital-activity/mar-data/)

Doesn't look much like the NHS was overwhelmed; quite the opposite. And what about all the 'regular' admissions - what has happened to those people who haven't had NHS care?

(Yes, perhaps an average covid case is more labour intensive than an average 'other' case, but even so...)

 

[HSTEd]

Opening up too fast will definitely destroy the economy if the healthcare system goes pop, the workforce sickness levels explode, and a total lockdown is required.

A total lockdown would not be 'required'
The government might chose to impose one for political reasons, but this disease is not the plague.

Workforce sickness is kind of a nonissue, given that a huge portion of the workforce has functionally been off sick for the last five months!

 

[Meerkat]

Here's a graph of NHS Hospital Admissions.

View attachment 82488

I've taken it from Twitter but I believe it to be accurate (it matches the data at https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/hospital-activity/monthly-hospital-activity/mar-data/)

Doesn't look much like the NHS was overwhelmed; quite the opposite. And what about all the 'regular' admissions - what has happened to those people who haven't had NHS care?

(Yes, perhaps an average covid case is more labour intensive than an average 'other' case, but even so...)

Covid admissions are equipment and labour intensive. The increase was covered by cancelling everything they could - you can’t do that forever and there is now a huge backlog.

 

[MikeWM]

Covid admissions are equipment and labour intensive. The increase was covered by cancelling everything they could - you can’t do that forever and there is now a huge backlog.

It would be interesting to see some numbers. I can believe the average Covid admission is more resource-heavy than the average admission. I'm not convinced they are 5 times more though.

 

[DB]

Covid admissions are equipment and labour intensive. The increase was covered by cancelling everything they could - you can’t do that forever and there is now a huge backlog.

But look at that graph - the decline in admissions is significant. The additional staff and equipment required for covid patients will be nothing like enough to account for this - and unless they reach intensive care, which most won't, is it actually that much more staff / equipment intensive anyway?

This does seem rather like moving the goalposts - first it was that there would be so many more patients, then when there demonstrably aren't the reason morphs into those patients which there are needing more care.

 

[Fyldeboy]

The admissions data is flawed because many pre-covid admissions would be for elective surgery, I personally was in and out in less than 48 hours whereas there are plenty of stories of 6 week covid stays.

Also, current admissions have to be lower due to covid precautions, meaning the huge back-log will be even harder to clear. On a national health basis, I have both a heart condition and diabetes, neither of these have been properly checked for about a year. It is fine and I understand why, but some people in my situation will have had changes that needed treatment - leading to premature mortality.

 

[Meerkat]

If it wasn’t an issue then why were the staff so busy and pulling in students and the retired?
Why were Italy and New York having so many issues and why were patients being TGVed across France and flown to Germany? And remember that distancing was widespread weeks before lockdown so this didn’t happen in a ‘no restrictions’ scenario.
Are you saying we all got healthier? Otherwise that drop is just backing up.

 

[HSTEd]

If it wasn’t an issue then why were the staff so busy and pulling in students and the retired?

Well my mother has been on the register for activation of retired staff since this started and has not actually been called since.

And hate to break it to you - NHS has been running on the exertions of student staff and such for years

Why were Italy and New York having so many issues and why were patients being TGVed across France and flown to Germany?

Moving patients around is hardly a major exertion.
People being moved around to optimise ICU capacity is hardly unheard of, indeed it is essential to the economic operation of health services.

And remember that distancing was widespread weeks before lockdown so this didn’t happen in a ‘no restrictions’ scenario.

And yet the full apparatus of state coercion was apparently required to avoid disaster.

Which was it?
Either noone was distancing so we were headed for nightmare scenarios, or people were distancing so economic damage was inevitable.
You can't have it both ways.

 

[Meerkat]

Which was it?
Either noone was distancing so we were headed for nightmare scenarios, or people were distancing so economic damage was inevitable.
You can't have it both ways.

what?! Where have I said no one was distancing?
What stopped the rapid rise in cases if it wasnt the distancing and lockdown measures?
Lets go back to basics. Are you arguing that we don’t need any restrictions and never did?

 

[Bantamzen]

what?! Where have I said no one was distancing?
What stopped the rapid rise in cases if it wasnt the distancing and lockdown measures?
Lets go back to basics. Are you arguing that we don’t need any restrictions and never did?

Many years ago I was engaged to a student nurse, and what I saw of the NHS from the inside would have made your toes curl. Student nurses often pulling 18 hours shifts to cover regular nurses, junior doctors spending 24-36 hours in the hospitals often catching naps in-between dealing with patients, cleaning staff doing nursing duties, basically what pretty much what we saw earlier in the year but all year round. If you think that somehow this year is unprecedented, think again. Its happened an awful lot of times over the years.

 

[HSTEd]

What stopped the rapid rise in cases if it wasnt the distancing and lockdown measures?

The combination of distancing and the lockdown.
I merely disagree with people who state that the consequences of the continuing rapid rise in cases would be "catastrophic".

Lets go back to basics. Are you arguing that we don’t need any restrictions and never did?

I'm arguing that employing restrictions such as those employed, especially so early in the epidemic, was counterproductive and will cause a huge loss of utility.
The lives and wellbeing of the relatively young are being sacrificed in an attempt to save the old.

And given experience in other parts of Europe it appears we will be stuck in this limbo for a long long time.

If we had gone the mitigated route, with a single two week shutdown sometimei n mid august, the epidemic would be essentiallly over by now.
We get worse death rates now, but avoid the mass damage we have caused and are still causing that will endure for decades.

 

[scotrail158713]

Well my mother has been on the register for activation of retired staff since this started and has not actually been called since.

Obviously 3 isn’t a large number to base it on, but I’m aware of 2 other retired staff who offered to help but were turned down. I struggle to see how the the NHS toiled if they’re declining ex-staff offering to help.