Going on past form my guess (and it is just a guess) would be that the likelyhood of a proper rolling programme is very slim. However, there was a point (probably within the last 12 months) when I was fearful that the government wouldn't authorise another electrification project for many years. This report may change that, but my guess would be that sections will end up being authorised individually, but not as a rolling programme.My one overriding thought.. what's the likelihood of this happening in a sustained, rolling manner that something of this scope demands?
Transport is now the 'worst' sector in the UK for greenhouse gas emissions; home heating is something else that needs to be addressed (and you are almost certainly correct that it is responsible for more emissions than the railway is at present) but it is a different sector. Road transport is a (much) bigger emmitter than rail too, but modal shift to public transport is necessary* to tackle that. Yes electric cars and electric (and maybe hydrogen in rural area) buses will play a part, but won't modal shift for long-distances require rail? If we wait until 2040 to even start decarbonisation of rail services, there is no way in hell that rail will have decarbonised by 2050. Thus rail's (small admittedly) carbon footprint would need to be offset somehow to meet the net-zero commitment.Realistically post covid the most realistic plan to decarbonisation would most likely be cancelling all rail investment and using the funds to switch to non carbon road transport and home heating. Rail is a niche polluter its relatively low levels can come in 20 years time.
* Page 8 of the latest SARPA newsletter makes this statement (I believe from Gareth Marston)
I don't know the original source of this suggestion that DfT had asked for national grid output to be increased by 30%, but it's not the first time I've heard the grid wouldn't handle charging all the nation's cars.the DfT had wanted the energy sector to increase national grid output by 30% so that 35million electric vehicles could continue to be charged and used as now. Quite where the power source for that was going to come from they didn’t say, but they got a firm no. Whilst electric cars are viable and planned we do not have the power generating capacity to use them the same way as our 35 million fossil fuel road vehicles. This is a key point to realise, as not everyone will be able to retain and use their car on electric power as now, even if they want to.