2020 US Presidential Election

[Typhoon]

Trump confirmed to have tested positive for Covid. This election run-up is a real rollercoaster.

I am not sure that this is a good thing. Will there be a 'sympathy' vote ? (Remember our Prime Minister's ratings bore up when he was hospitalised, even though he had made a pigs ear of proceedings up to then.)
Also, what chance he emerge from isolation looking completely fit saying that he has had the virus and just like he has always said it only affects the enfeebled (like sleepy Joe - that is why he has to wear a mask), it is nothing for most to worry about.
Or we will see pictures of him looking ill in bed but in ten days time he emerges looking fit and well boasting about how strong he is, fit to lead the country for 4 more years, and (too) many vote for him in thanksgiving for his deliverance forgetting ten months of failed leadership over CoVid-19. Doubtless prayers for the President will feature prominently on Sunday.

It is also taking stories of his appalling behaviour at the Presidential Debate off the front pages.

Just read lhttps://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/wor...into-chaos/ar-BB19DmDc?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “needs to be immediately tested” for coronavirus after sharing the stage with President Donald Trump during the presidential debate on Tuesday, CNN’s Chief Medical Correspondent Dr Sanjay Gupta has said.

Now that is worrying!

 

[nlogax]

I am not sure that this is a good thing.

I agree, it's not a good thing. Much of the media this morning are playing to the possibility of this being a huge negative moment for the Trump campaign but if he gets away with being either asymptomatic or minimally affected then this could actually win him votes. Biden REALLY needs to get tested. I'm sure that's already happening.

If Trump does really become ill with this there's not a chance in hell he'd allow photos of that to get out.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Of course all of this is assuming that this is actually true (it isn't that far into conspiracy territory to suggest that he may well lie about something like this).
I also wonder if he is symptomatic or not, and if he isn't if he will try to use that in the way that Typhoon above suggests (ie. trying to claim its not that bad, or that it only affects the vulnerable etc).

 

[Darandio]

Now that is worrying!

Although he should be tested as a matter of course they were five metres apart so it shouldn't have been a direct issue. Or did they do high fives and fistbumps before/after the debate? I haven't seen it.

 

[Typhoon]

Although he should be tested as a matter of course they were five metres apart so it shouldn't have been a direct issue. Or did they do high fives and fistbumps before/after the debate? I haven't seen it.

It isn't just Trump, there will be a whole retinue of the candidates' staff (Hope Hicks?), production crew, some officials, ... I don't know the arrangements and I certainly didn't watch it so this is pure speculation.

Regarding the high-fives, if I was Biden, I wouldn't let Trump anywhere near me, I would want to be carrying a cattle prod to ensure that he keeps his distance!

 

[Skimpot flyer]

The problem with this latest news is that it may invoke Trump to argue an unfair election if he loses the next term in office. I seem to remember one of the elections involving George W Bush was reviewed because of issues surrounding the voting counts (it was either the 2000 or 2004 US elections) - Dubya threw his rattle out of his pram. Trump may do the same - he was been forced to withdraw from public, so his rival has been able to make more inroads to gain popularity. It'll be an interesting one - I have a feeling Trump is not going to give up without a fight.

CJ

Trump withdrawing from public life and thus not making more gaffes damages Biden’s chances of getting elected !

 

[Typhoon]

If Trump does really become ill with this there's not a chance in hell he'd allow photos of that to get out.

Not even after recovery - 'this was me on Saturday, I felt really grim', 'this was me on Monday, 150 press-ups, isn't that right doctor, it was nothing that a fit man like me can't overcome'?

 

[Skimpot flyer]

If Trump does really become ill with this there's not a chance in hell he'd allow photos of that to get out.

Who would take the photo if he’s in isolation???

 

[Typhoon]

Trump withdrawing from public life and thus not making more gaffes damages Biden’s chances of getting elected !

True. If only Biden had some well thought through policies that he could wheel out, ones that would convince the undecided to come on board, now would be the time. Sadly, a policy of 'I'm not Trump' won't do it!

Who would take the photo if he’s in isolation???

Taken from a Zoom call? You just know he's in constant communication with all and sundry, he's probably going to be more of a handful than normal (just like a sick 5 year old).

If he's bad they would have to send a doctor in (hopefully in full PPE)

 

[najaB]

Re the idea of a sympathy vote. It won't encourage Biden voters to switch to Trump since it just emphasises how wrong he has been wrt to Covid-19. It might encourage some Trump voters to "support their man", but by the same token it may induce doubt in others so it's likely to be net-zero overall.

 

[edwin_m]

Yes mate - twenty years ago indeed. Dubya v Al Gore. I seem to remember Bush only won the election by a whisker - one of the closest presidential elections ever. Al Gore seemed to have a really good background having served as Bill Clinton's vice president. The only issue would have been how Gore dealt with 9/11 if he had been in charge.

It came down to a few hundred votes. Bush got a majority of one in the electoral college after Florida, like most states, gave all its votes their to the winner of the popular vote in the state. So it could hardly have been closer and it could have gone the other way if the Supreme Court, with a conservative majority as now, hadn't stopped a recount on the insistence of Republican lawyers. Not to mention that Bush's brother was governor of Florida and therefore responsible for supervising the election. And of course Bush lost the popular vote by several million.

If Gore had won we might not have even had 9/11, as my personal conspiracy theory is that Al-Quaida knew Bush would over-react and that would build their support in the Muslim world. There's a stronger case to say he would have gone into Afghanistan but not Iraq, and possibly by concentrating efforts there might have made more of a difference.

 

[C J Snarzell]

On the subject of George W Bush - I wonder how he would have dealt with the global pandemic and possibly having Boris Johnson as his goffer instead of Tony Blair.

CJ

 

[najaB]

On the subject of George W Bush - I wonder how he would have dealt with the global pandemic and possibly having Boris Johnson as his goffer instead of Tony Blair.

Dubya knew that he wasn't very clever so he would likely have deferred to the scientists. In other words, exactly opposite to DJT.

 

[ABB125]

it only affects the enfeebled

Word of the year!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Just under five weeks so a little closer than you think. And two weeks self isolation obviously presumes he doesn’t get any nasty symptoms.

I wonder how isolated he really will be though - can’t imagine he’ll be cooking his own cheeseburgers and getting his own Diet Coke somehow

Yes - his diet is not good. He has never abused drugs or alcohol which may help. He does not exercise and you definitely can not count golf as he does that from a golf cart.

So against him are:
Male (quite a bit higher risk than female)
Aged 74 - quite elevated risk
Poor diet
lack of exercise
Fits the criteria for obese BMI ./= 30.0

For him:
Not ethnic minority
Fantastic healthcare
Can completely isolate if necessary
Tested regularly so caught early

If Trump does really become ill with this there's not a chance in hell he'd allow photos of that to get out.

They will leak out worse than a sieve - trust me on that.

 

[Typhoon]

Word of the year!

Thank you. Unfortunately it only scores 15 at Scrabble!

 

[edwin_m]

Now reported as showing symptoms:

Trump Covid: US president has mild symptoms - White House

The US president and his wife test positive for the virus, a month before elections.

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump has mild symptoms of coronavirus after he and his wife Melania tested positive for the illness, the White House says.

Without wanting to be melodramatic, what happens if a candidate dies between the nomination deadline and the election, and subsequently "wins"? Does their running mate automatically acceded to the presidency?

 

[birchesgreen]

No a new candidate is chosen by the party. Could still be Pence of course.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Although Trump is not popular with everyone, I hope he and his wife make a quick recovery. This horrific virus has claimed enough lives already.

CJ

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Breaking news . Biden has tested negative.

 

[najaB]

Although Trump is not popular with everyone, I hope he and his wife make a quick recovery.

As do I.

Without wanting to be melodramatic, what happens if a candidate dies between the nomination deadline and the election, and subsequently "wins"? Does their running mate automatically acceded to the presidency?

I was curious about this since the election next month is just to choose the Electors. The answer, as with most things in US politics, is "Well, now it get complicated..." Here's a useful article on the topic: We’re in the final stages of the presidential election. What happens if a candidate withdraws or dies?

We do not know at this moment whether President Trump will have a mild or more serious case of covid-19. But without being alarmist, there is a public need to know what the procedures would be were the president to become incapacitated in two situations: before the election or if he wins and becomes incapacitated before Inauguration Day.
The national organization for the Republican Party is known as the Republican National Committee (RNC). In the first scenario, the RNC would have the power to replace the party’s nominee for president.

 

[Domh245]

Here's a useful article on the topic: We’re in the final stages of the presidential election. What happens if a candidate withdraws or dies?

Unfortunately, the chairwoman of the RNC has also returned a positive test, which further complicates it all!

Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, has tested positive for the coronavirus and is experiencing mild symptoms, according to several people briefed on the situation.

Ms. McDaniel is the latest person who is in frequent contact with President Trump to test positive for the virus.

She was last with Mr. Trump last Friday, and has been at her home in Michigan since then, the people briefed on the matter said.

She received her diagnosis on Wednesday, they said. After a crowded donor event in March at Mar-a-Lago, the president’s private club in Florida, Ms. McDaniel fell ill, but she tested negative at the time.

 

[158756]

Re the idea of a sympathy vote. It won't encourage Biden voters to switch to Trump since it just emphasises how wrong he has been wrt to Covid-19. It might encourage some Trump voters to "support their man", but by the same token it may induce doubt in others so it's likely to be net-zero overall.

I doubt many people not already supporting him will have much sympathy for Trump. What I would be worried about if I were on Biden's team is that if (as we all should all hope even if we dislike Trump) he has only mild symptoms and is quickly back on the campaign trail, this will convince voters either of Trump's exceptional health and fitness compared to Biden who needs to hide from the virus, or alternatively, that if an unfit overweight 74 year old can brush it off easily then really Trump has been right all along and the virus isn't that dangerous.

 

[najaB]

...alternatively, that if an unfit overweight 74 year old can brush it off easily then really Trump has been right all along and the virus isn't that dangerous.

The answer to that is to make the point that it's only dangerous to those who can't afford good healthcare.

 

[brad465]

In Hospital already (albeit as a precaution it seems):

Trump flown to hospital after Covid-19 diagnosis

The president tweets things are "going well, I think!" and is expected to have a "few days" of treatment.

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump is being taken to hospital less than 24 hours after testing positive for coronavirus.

The White House said the decision to transport him to Walter Reed National Military Medical Centre was taken "out of an abundance of caution".

Mr Trump began exhibiting "mild symptoms" of Covid-19 on Thursday after disclosing that he and his wife had gone into quarantine late Wednesday.

The White House said he was feeling "fatigued but in good spirits".

The news comes just over a month before presidential elections, where he will face Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

I doubt many people not already supporting him will have much sympathy for Trump. What I would be worried about if I were on Biden's team is that if (as we all should all hope even if we dislike Trump) he has only mild symptoms and is quickly back on the campaign trail, this will convince voters either of Trump's exceptional health and fitness compared to Biden who needs to hide from the virus, or alternatively, that if an unfit overweight 74 year old can brush it off easily then really Trump has been right all along and the virus isn't that dangerous.

The answer to that is to make the point that it's only dangerous to those who can't afford good healthcare.

If he makes a full recovery for someone of his age and lifestyle, one does have to wonder how seriously everywhere with suppression response measures (including us especially) takes the pandemic from here as alluded to here.

 

[nlogax]

Just when I thought 2020 had given everything it had to give.

Just one month til the election.

 

[Cowley]

Just when I thought 2020 had given everything it had to give.

I reckon that this year still has plenty of stings left in the tail you know. The aftermath of the US Election almost certainly being one of them...

 

[johntea]

A short video just posted on Twitter with Trump saying he thinks he is doing 'very well'

https://www.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1312158400352972800

Looked to me he was a bit short of breath

 

[najaB]

If he makes a full recovery for someone of his age and lifestyle, one does have to wonder how seriously everywhere with suppression response measures (including us especially) takes the pandemic from here as alluded to here.

Not really, it's never been a death sentence for older people - most of them have recovered. Especially since he has literally the best healthcare facilities and medical personnel on the planet taking care of him. But it's still an easy goal for the Democrats "Donald Trump can thank the fantastic facilities and dedicated staff at Walter Reed for taking care of him when he had Covid-19. Now he's taking away your health insurance."

 

[C J Snarzell]

I reckon that this year still has plenty of stings left in the tail you know. The aftermath of the US Election almost certainly being one of them...

I agree - another three months of surprises. Even if Trump does not get the next term in office, I'm sure he'll have plenty more cards up his sleeve before January.

CJ