New Scottish COVID-19 Restrictions 07/10/2020

[Bletchleyite]

Or just accept that it's unavoidable, and advise kids/students to avoid coming into contact with people at risk, where possible, for the next month or two.

Or that.

However, I think it is now prudent that all non-practical Sixth Form and University teaching should go online. That should be enough to calm it down alone, without the pubs shutting. And if you look at the graph on that document the pubs won't make much odds anyway.

 

[Journeyman]

I really, really hope this is the moment when people realise that (a) the SNP is just as inept, self-serving and useless as the parties they spend their whole time demonising and that (b) just a few months ago Sturgeon was bragging about eliminating the virus from Scotland. How did that work out, then?

From an extremely angry resident of the Central Belt.

 

[DB]

Or that. (By the way it was me that said that, not @RomeoCharlie71)

However, I think it is now prudent that all non-practical Sixth Form and University teaching should go online. That should be enough to calm it down alone, without the pubs shutting.

Yeah, I know - not sure why it put his username as I clicked reply to your post, but I've already edited it.

We still have no clear explanation though of what the purpose of reducing the spread is, and what it's supposed to achieve.

 

[Journeyman]

We still have no clear explanation though of what the purpose of reducing the spread is, and what it's supposed to achieve.

Come on, this is the SNP we're talking about - it's meant to achieve independence. Nothing else matters, including the price we pay for it.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

However, I think it is now prudent that all non-practical Sixth Form and University teaching should go online.

The majority of it is, though. And I hate it. Entirely.

The mistake was Universities telling students to live on campus for their blended model of teaching (blended to me is a mix of F2F and online). The blended model never happened.

FWIW my Uni is claiming blended learning means a mix of live and recorded lectures, not what I described above. Slightly OT though.

 

[big_rig]

Summarised as:
1. Here's a load of stats
2. We think schools/universities are at the root of the problem
3. But we're going to shut pubs because that might work

Seriously?

This needs reporting as a scandal in the Press. If schools and universities are the problem, and it seems clear to me that they are, then we need to look at those and how we can make them not be a problem.

A classic nonsense paper, isn't it. 14 pages, of which all bar 1 1/2 have essentially nothing to do with the measure taken (nor with whether potential benefits of taking the actions outweigh costs in the grand scheme of things), then a graph showing less than a quarter of all people who tested positive had visited a pub/restaurant a week before their test, so let's ban those (and let's not mention that they were previously supposedly 'COVID secure, that would be inconvenient!). Then the very last paragraph says:

A temporary set of more comprehensive restrictions across the central belt, which is responsible for 75% of positive tests for a defined period should have the impact of reducing the value of R further and also the infectious pool within the population

So the thing they pulled out of a hat should have some impact, but nobody knows. Anyway they promise that it'll be lifted in two weeks, even though Sturgeon herself said it takes weeks to see if any measure is effective or not. I bet all the trains in the world it isn't lifted!

 

[Scotrail314209]

One thing that did shock me is that Ayrshire was named as a hotspot, the district I live in. I specifically live in North Ayrshire. I haven't heard very much about rising cases or deaths here...

I think one of the other reasons for the random "spikes" in the Central Belt is because of the dense populace. Northern and Southern Scotland are nowhere near as populated as the Central Belt.

Summarised as:
1. Here's a load of stats
2. We think schools/universities are at the root of the problem
3. But we're going to shut pubs because that might work

This literally sums it up to a tea. Universities have handled this awfully, yet most bars and cafes I've been to have had the adequate distancing measures in place... it's awful. They are just looking for scapegoats now.

I highly doubt all these numbers are coming solely from hospitality. Some of the buses I have been on have been busy. Theres no enforcing of social distancing or mask wearing on buses or trains. I've been on many buses and only one driver has enforced the masks. It's shocking.

I can see many people losing faith in the Scottish Government if comments on social media are anything to go by.

 

[kristiang85]

10 deaths in the last week in Scotland: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland

Is the response really proportionate? I don't think so.

I'd love to see stats for all other respiratory deaths in Scotland.

 

[Journeyman]

I can see many people losing faith in the Scottish Government if comments on social media are anything to go by.

I think they've badly misjudged this one, and the mood is likely to turn ugly. It seems completely disproportionate. I live in West Lothian, and I still don't know a single person who has even had the virus, let alone suffer any lasting damage.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Also just been announced that National 5 (thats GCSE) exams in Scotland will not go ahead in 2021. Not sure if theres a more appropriate thread for this.

I bet some school kids are jumping with joy at that news.

I think they've badly misjudged this one, and the mood is likely to turn ugly. It seems completely disproportionate. I live in West Lothian, and I still don't know a single person who has even had the virus, let alone suffer any lasting damage.

Exactly. I live in one of the hot spots and attend college in Kilwinning. I know nobody who has had COVID... or even anyone who's friends have had COVID. I really think this has a danger of descending into authoritarianism.

People have put up with it for 7 months, how much more can the people take without losing their temper. It's a ticking timebomb.

 

[Journeyman]

10 deaths in the last week in Scotland: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland

Is the response really proportionate? I don't think so.

I'd love to see stats for all other respiratory deaths in Scotland.

Exactly. Given how unhealthy a lot of Scots are, and how prevalent smoking is in many areas, how come we're not tackling that?

 

[Kingspanner]

10 deaths in the last week in Scotland: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland

Is the response really proportionate? I don't think so.

I'd love to see stats for all other respiratory deaths in Scotland.

Can't disagree with you there. Once in Glasgow I walked past the offices of the Scottish Chest, Heart and Stroke Association and thought "They've got their work cut out!"

 

[duncanp]

I really, really hope this is the moment when people realise that (a) the SNP is just as inept, self-serving and useless as the parties they spend their whole time demonising and that (b) just a few months ago Sturgeon was bragging about eliminating the virus from Scotland. How did that work out, then?

From an extremely angry resident of the Central Belt.

Please remember the bit in bold at the Scottish Parliament elections next year.

It will be interesting to see what effect these new measures actually have, and it is interesting that the pub closure period in Scotland expires before the end of the UK government funded furlough scheme.

Of course people in the areas of Scotland where pubs have to close completely aren't going to go out on a huge bender tonight, tomorrow and Friday lunchtime are they?

I wonder what demand on the railways in Scotland for day trips to Carlisle and Berwick will be like for the next two weeks?

 

[scotrail158713]

I’ll be keeping a close eye on the breakdown of cases in areas over the next couple of weeks. Surely we should see a reduction in the Central belt cases, or an increase elsewhere, as hospitality is supposedly the issue? I suspect we won’t though, and it’ll just be more proof that increasing restrictions doesn’t cause cases to decrease.
(I know the north and south of the country are more sparsely populated - but there are still some fairly large population areas e.g. Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness etc)

 

[Scotrail314209]

Another thing I do need to say.

These restrictions aren't for everyone to get protected with. It's to make Nicola Sturgeon look good.

England are extending curfew to 11pm while Scotland get's harsher. Hospitality was a place where we were beginning to adapt to living with COVID. Now it's all been shut down again? The death warrant for Hospitality has been signed.

Right now I'm also fearing immensely for the Arts. There is no way Theaters can survive if they keep doing these restrictions, even if you open at limited capacity. How can you do acting while socially distancing?

We are going to see a lot of sectors suffering even more so. The Government needs to look at things properly.

 

[kristiang85]

Exactly. Given how unhealthy a lot of Scots are, and how prevalent smoking is in many areas, how come we're not tackling that?

Out of interest, I just looked up the Scottish lung cancer deaths: https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-...-10-29/2019-10-29-Cancer-Mortality-Report.pdf

Lung cancer is the most common cause of death from cancer in Scotland (3,980 deaths in 2018).

So far there have been 2,532 deaths from COVID in 2020, which - if we generously measure as being over 8 months - that would equate to around 3,800 in a year.

Assuming pretty much all but a few lung cancer cases are from smoking, you could say that just as many people are dying from COVID as smoking. Why aren't the SNP banning cigarettes then?

 

[Andyh82]

Will be interesting to see how the media report on this

They've kept the pressure on the UK government about the 10pm curfew on pubs (the main headline on the BBC News at Ten was how some council leaders are against it and Labour are now apparently against it) so will they just let Sturgeon introduce even stricter measures with no kickback?

 

[Journeyman]

Out of interest, I just looked up the Scottish lung cancer deaths: https://www.isdscotland.org/Health-...-10-29/2019-10-29-Cancer-Mortality-Report.pdf



So far there have been 2,532 deaths from COVID in 2020, which - if we generously measure as being over 8 months - that would equate to around 3,800 in a year.

Assuming pretty much all but a few lung cancer cases are from smoking, you could say that just as many people are dying from COVID as smoking. Why aren't the SNP banning cigarettes then?

What are the figures for COPD? That's what killed my mum, and all but a tiny fraction of cases are caused by smoking.

 

[kristiang85]

Will be interesting to see how the media report on this

They've kept the pressure on the UK government about the 10pm curfew on pubs (the main headline on the BBC News at Ten was how some council leaders are against it) so will they just let Sturgeon introduce even stricter measures with no kickback?

Looking at social media replies to the new stories, they are almost unaminously negative towards the measures. So I think the mainstream media will be picking up on this from their readership, and hopefully putting more pressure on.

What are the figures for COPD? That's what killed my mum, and all but a tiny fraction of cases are caused by smoking.

You make a very good point actually, we need to look at COPD as well as lung cancer. Using this source: https://www.scotpho.org.uk/health-w...ve-pulmonary-disease-copd/data/mortality-data

It says 63.4/100,000 in 2018 for males, 59.7/100,000 in females.

Doing simplified maths, let's say that's 61/100,000 in the 2018 population 5.44m, that would mean 61x54.4 = 3,294 deaths per year. So around the same. But if you add that to the lung cancer deaths, then smoking is definitely far more of a threat to a Scot's life than COVID.

Also bear in mind over 10 years, that number will probably remain fairly constant, so around 50,000 smoking-related deaths in Scotland over a decade (taking just lung cancer and COPD data).

COVID will probably never go over 4,000 in that time...

Edit: Oh, I could have just looked this up - https://www.scotpho.org.uk/behaviou...ns a leading cause,of deaths compared to 2017.

9,360 estimated deaths from smoking-related conditions in 2018 alone. So my estimate was well below - over 10 years that could be around 90,000 deaths attributed to smoking. When you put that alongside the 4/5k probable COVID deaths in the same period, it makes the current madness look even worse.

 

[Journeyman]

Has anyone in Scotland noticed any changes in public behaviour recently? Over the last few days everywhere seems to be quieter. I'm in The Gyle shopping centre in Edinburgh right now, and the place is quieter than I've seen it in months.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Has anyone in Scotland noticed any changes in public behaviour recently? Over the last few days everywhere seems to be quieter. I'm in The Gyle shopping centre in Edinburgh right now, and the place is quieter than I've seen it in months.

Yes. I was in several shops where I live at around 2pm, all of them were dead when they were normally busy. It was strange to see.

 

[yorksrob]

Has she said the evidence behind her decision and what she expects this to achieve?

Of course not. It's an entirely political decision.

 

[Scotrail12]

Has anyone in Scotland noticed any changes in public behaviour recently? Over the last few days everywhere seems to be quieter. I'm in The Gyle shopping centre in Edinburgh right now, and the place is quieter than I've seen it in months.

Probably because universities returned recently and few students are out the house.

 

[haggishunter]

I really, really hope this is the moment when people realise that (a) the SNP is just as inept, self-serving and useless as the parties they spend their whole time demonising and that (b) just a few months ago Sturgeon was bragging about eliminating the virus from Scotland. How did that work out, then?

From an extremely angry resident of the Central Belt.

I’ll tell you how it worked out and why, on the day Scotland opened tourism on 15th July with no travel restrictions the virus prevalence ratio between Scotland and England had reached an all time high of 9.5x higher in England.

As the Green Leader stated a NZ scenario was in our grasp, Scotland should have opened up internally with no non essential travel in or out. Not restricting travel between the UKs Home Nations got us back to this point because HM Govt opened up in England to early, too far and too fast.

As a consequence of HM Govt and in particular the Scottish Tories being more interested in constitutional politicking than doing what was needed for public health, the whole UK is in the mire again.

NZ is where Scotland could have been now. You can have full opening in areas of low prevalence / elimination or you can have limited opening with unrestricted travel between areas of vastly differing prevalence. You can’t have both full opening of local services and unrestricted travel, or you gradually return all areas to the prevalence of the worst.

 

[Journeyman]

Can we have less of this nationalistic nonsense, please? I consider the closure of the Anglo-Scottish border under any circumstances to be completely unacceptable.

 

[kristiang85]

I’ll tell you how it worked out and why, on the day Scotland opened tourism on 15th July with no travel restrictions the virus prevalence ratio between Scotland and England had reached an all time high of 9.5x higher in England.

As the Green Leader stated a NZ scenario was in our grasp, Scotland should have opened up internally with no non essential travel in or out. Not restricting travel between the UKs Home Nations got us back to this point because HM Govt opened up in England to early, too far and too fast.

As a consequence of HM Govt and in particular the Scottish Tories being more interested in constitutional politicking than doing what was needed for public health, the whole UK is in the mire again.

NZ is where Scotland could have been now. You can have full opening in areas of low prevalence / elimination or you can have limited opening with unrestricted travel between areas of vastly differing prevalence. You can’t have both full opening of local services and unrestricted travel, or you gradually return all areas to the prevalence of the worst.

New Zealand cannot keep this going forever; so much of its economy depends on tourism, and they will have to open up at some point, otherwise the public opinion will turn. If that opening happens before the vaccine comes (which is very likely), then they will have the same waves of infection as the rest of the world.

Scotland won't have this problem now. And closing Scotland off to England would have been economic (as well as social and political) suicide.

For evidence of what happens after a strict lockdown, look at Czechia: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/
They had one of the harshest lockdowns in Europe in spring (and were praised), then opened up again for the summer season, and now are an outlier in that they have more deaths in the 'second wave' than the first.

 

[duncanp]

I’ll tell you how it worked out and why, on the day Scotland opened tourism on 15th July with no travel restrictions the virus prevalence ratio between Scotland and England had reached an all time high of 9.5x higher in England.

As the Green Leader stated a NZ scenario was in our grasp, Scotland should have opened up internally with no non essential travel in or out. Not restricting travel between the UKs Home Nations got us back to this point because HM Govt opened up in England to early, too far and too fast.

As a consequence of HM Govt and in particular the Scottish Tories being more interested in constitutional politicking than doing what was needed for public health, the whole UK is in the mire again.

NZ is where Scotland could have been now. You can have full opening in areas of low prevalence / elimination or you can have limited opening with unrestricted travel between areas of vastly differing prevalence. You can’t have both full opening of local services and unrestricted travel, or you gradually return all areas to the prevalence of the worst.

Is there any evidence whatsover to suggest that the increase in cases in Scotland is caused by a whole load of plague ridden Sassenachs crossing the border (myself included between August 29th and September 7th) and bringing their nasty germs with them?

 

[Journeyman]

Is there any evidence whatsover to suggest that the increase in cases in Scotland is caused by a whole load of plague ridden Sassenachs crossing the border (myself included between August 29th and September 7th) and bringing their nasty germs with them?

Absolutely none. If that was the case, there would have been a sharp increase in cases from late July/early August, and if I remember right they were stable or dropping at that point.

 

[haggishunter]

Can we have less of this nationalistic nonsense, please? I consider the closure of the Anglo-Scottish border under any circumstances to be completely unacceptable.

Then you own this mess, someone who ranks constitutional symbolism above public health, can hardly complain about nationalistic nonsense - unionism is British Nationalism by another name.

 

[duncanp]

Absolutely none.

I realise that, perhaps someone could let Nicola Sturgeon and the rest of the SNP know.