nlogax
Established Member
I saw 50/1 odds on a Trump win last week but I couldn't bring myself to put a single penny on him.
If there were odds on Trump being arrested then I'd go for it. Let's see what tomorrow night brings first though.
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2020 US Presidential Election
- Thread starter RichT54
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I saw 50/1 odds on a Trump win last week but I couldn't bring myself to put a single penny on him.
If there were odds on Trump being arrested then I'd go for it. Let's see what tomorrow night brings first though.
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Scotrail314209
Established Member
When Trump refuses to leave office, what would be the most extreme thing he might do?
Tin Rocket
Member
Wipe Iran off the face of the earth.
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Blimey 15/8 on Trump is the best odds I've seen up to sunday.
I would have put £50 on. As unlikely as I see him being victorious, in the event that he did the winnings would pay for *almost* enough whisky to let me cope with the severe mental trauma.
61653 HTAFC
Veteran Member
I changed my phone just before the first lockdown, and haven't bothered to reactivate my Paddy Power account (which I only used for the Grand National and for weekly 10p football accumulators)... but I'm tempted to do so now!
Tin Rocket
Member
I think that 50/1 was a William Hill new customer introductory offer with a £1 max stake and winnings paid out in the form of bets.
I’d have bet at least a thousand at those odds, but they almost certainly were a loss leader for new customers somewhere with a small stake limit. (I would then have bet about 25 times as much on Trump not winning on betfair at the current market rate, and guaranteed myself a minimum of £20k profit.
He’s been longer than 2/1, particularly when he was ill, but the odds have shortened overnight and he’s now 8/5.
Yes I was about to make an account on their website until I spotted the small print on that one. Oh well their loss
kristiang85
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Although the indicators are that Biden will win, two caveats worry me:
- The polls and odds were roughly the same in 2016 for Hillary
- In December we were thinking it would be a close election here, but it turns out it was a Tory landslide.
The silent republicans are what worry me.
- The polls and odds were roughly the same in 2016 for Hillary
- In December we were thinking it would be a close election here, but it turns out it was a Tory landslide.
The silent republicans are what worry me.
hexagon789
Veteran Member
Did the polls indicate a close race? I thought they predicted a fairly strong Conservative majority though not quite as strong as the one they obtained.
Biden is in a much stronger position than Clinton, he leads on average by 8%, Clinton was only leading by 4% on election night.
If the polling error was the same as 2016, Biden would still be in to scrape a win by about 278 votes winning all up to an including Pennsylvania. It's also worth remembering the polls were much more volatile in 2016, this time they've broadly agreed and been pretty stable for months.
The three most likely scenarios as I see it:
1 - 2016 style polling error, Biden wins but only just (about 278 ECVs)
2 - polls correct, Biden wins strongly by about the same margin as Clinton in 1996 and would win about 350 ECVs, he would even be in with a chance of winning Texas
3 - Biden underestimated by the amount Trump was in 2016, Biden wins over 410 ECVs including Texas and possibly even Alaska and would even be in with a shout in Montana.
Trump's chances are about 10%, the demographics have changed since 2016, Biden is much more popular than Trump or Clinton but I think it will take weeks to find out the true result.
The US pollsters learnt a lot from last time around.
One thing I’ve seen this year is that I’ve read plenty of interviews with people who voted Trump last time because either a) they disliked Clinton or b) warmed to his alternative message of ‘draining the swamp’ or ‘make America great again’... and have now seen him for what he is and will vote differently this time. Conversely, I haven’t seen a single person who voted Democrat last time that has changed their mind and will now vote Trump.
Now that could be media bias, or it could be ‘silent Republicans’, but somehow I doubt it.
nlogax
Established Member
This will likely be the highest turnout since 1908 with estimates of up to 160 million votes. About 100 million of them have already been cast in early voting including millions of young and first time voters, which is astonishing and something that is a very positive sign for Democrats. Silent republicans don't worry me this time around.
Alarm set for 3am tonight / tomorrow morning to start watching the madness unfold on C-SPAN and elsewhere. This is going to be a tumultuous week.
kristiang85
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Well I hope all your optimism turns out to be true! Though whatever the result, I still expect lots of fallout. It's not going to be pretty.
Likewise I'll be up early tomorrow.
Likewise I'll be up early tomorrow.
Tin Rocket
Member
Tightening up now
Trump 6/4
Biden 4/7
Trump's coming up on the rails,gonna win it in a photo finish I reckon.
Trump 6/4
Biden 4/7
Trump's coming up on the rails,gonna win it in a photo finish I reckon.
birchesgreen
Established Member
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump won to be honest, i'd love it to be a crushing Biden landslide though. Trump's humiliation would be a sight to see.
Well not just Trump but also for the right wing in this country particularly for Farage of course.
Of course like any typical politician it will be somebody else's fault, like the press.
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Trump’s gone out a fair bit since this morning. He was 8/5 at breakfast time (GMT), but is now 9/5 at breakfast time (EDT)
One of these days I'll learning to understand betting odds
One of these days I'll learning to understand betting odds
I’m having to convert them from betfair’s decimal odds, which is much simpler to understand! But the subject of another thread, I think, perhaps in ‘Speculation’
telstarbox
Established Member
In brief, if the odds are A/B then the implied probability is B/(A+B). So 2/1 is a 33.3% chance and 3/1 is a 25% chance.
One difference is that Hillary was never consistently over 50% in favorability rating, where I don't think Biden has ever been below it. And there hasn't been an October Surprise of any real import, unlike 2016 where the Comey announcement definitely hurt Hillary Clinton.
Wilts Wanderer
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My prediction for tonight is that early exit polls will suggest Trump is leading, he’ll declare victory and then by tomorrow it’ll be turning into a legal bloodbath as the enormous amount of postal balloting gradually swings the result over to Biden. So fully expecting ‘bad’ news before bed tonight, followed by ‘good’ news tomorrow or beyond, tainted by whatever disgusting **** the GOP and Trump try to pull to hang on to power.
Thank God Im not an American.
Thank God Im not an American.
He's already admitted that that's his plan.
Wilts Wanderer
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I think part of the problem in the US is that there seems to be no independent body that officially ‘calls’ the election result. Obviously the Supreme Court can rule but as it’s by no means a balanced body politically, there is no real confidence to be had in the result if some states are in doubt. Would be like Man Utd playing Liverpool in front of a team of nine referees, all of whom are affiliated one way or another with the teams, and trying to declare the result after 75 minutes of game time!
There is, and there isn't. Each state's election board has to certify the result for the state, this is then sent to to the state representatives for confirmation and then to the governor so that he/she can send the result to Congress.
So the problem isn't so much lack of responsibility but rather that there are too many people involved, with plenty of opportunity for partisan interference. For example, one plot hatched up by the GOP is for Republican-lead state legislatures to declare that their state election boards are taking too long and simply declare Trump to be the winner.
Tin Rocket
Member
Big Money piling in on Biden now according to BetfairI’m having to convert them from betfair’s decimal odds, which is much simpler to understand! But the subject of another thread, I think, perhaps in ‘Speculation’
Indeed. Trump now at 9/4*. That’s quite a shift (from 8/5**) in 12 hours for a two horse political race with no major announcements. Perhaps someone has had sight of some early exit poll data.
Decimal odds:
* 9/4 = 3.25
** 8/5 = 2.6
brad465
Established Member
The other thing we have to remember is Hilary had the popular vote with a 2% lead, so they were not out in that respect. The issue of course is their Electoral College voting system gave Trump the advantage based on key state distributions.
A disputed result and court battle that results in Biden taking office in January might be the best result for the UK. Biden is best for the UK with the exception of the immediate future of Brexit. There is a high likelihood that we will be three weeks into a free trade agreement with the EU before Biden takes office. If the election is disputed he won't have much time to spare on foreign policy until he takes office. Settling the issue before he is able to interfere is more likely to mean a health relationship between a Biden Administration and our government.
Rational analysis says Biden will win and I hope he does. My gut says Trump will win again. I really hope I am wrong.
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