Potential slashing of rail services in 2021

[Bletchleyite]

The problem we have is that "matching services to demand" doesn't mirror "slashing services to reduce costs". We need to make sure that they don't start slashing costs and inadvertantly destroying services that are needed.

Agreed. There is some murmuring of doing nasty things to branch lines, which isn't the way to solve the problem of fresh air being carried on London commuter services (which are the ones that will be hit by reductions in demand most). With reduced demand it may well be possible to make those look more like Merseyrail - i.e. the same pattern from start to close give or take a bit of early morning/late evening thinning.

It will depend *what* demand returns. Leisure travel would be best supported by keeping up all-day frequencies, for example.

I'd expect the following over the next few years, which would have happened anyway even without COVID but it has pushed things along about 10 years or so:

• Significant reduction in daily London commuting and a lot of people moving further from London (equalising house prices a bit). I'd venture that a Saturday timetable (i.e. like the weekday service but no peak extras) is likely to be workable for all London commuter lines, pretty much, but with longer trains at busier times
• Reduction, but not as big, in commuting into other cities, but that not hitting the railway too badly because of the severe overcrowding there was before
• Leisure travel hit in the short term by people having bought cars, but slowly returning as people remember how little fun sitting in traffic on the M1 is
• Slow increase in long-distance business travel as people go to the office 1-2 days a week from further away
• Touristy branch lines probably largely unaffected
• Non-touristy branch lines possibly hit by reduced demand due to car purchases but likely to recover over time

 

[Bald Rick]

The quote appears to be from that most reliable of sources, the Daily Mail, perhaps a second report is required before believing this one?

Rail timetables to be cut as commuters stay away

Train timetables are likely to be cut in the new year as concern grows that as many as a fifth of commuters will stay away from the railway indefinitely. The Ti

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[edwin_m]

Could a 20% reduction be better achieved through a greater variation between peak and off-peak services? A station that normally sees 4 tph doesn’t need 4 tph all day.

On the flip side how does this slashing of services work for metros, where turn-up-and-go is their main selling point?

It will depend *what* demand returns. Leisure travel would be best supported by keeping up all-day frequencies, for example.

Also the peak service is what drives most of the costs (the number of trains and the amount of track, and a fair chunk of the staff cost), so you don't save much by cutting off-peak. I would expect many people who WFH but travel to an office sometimes to want to do so on an off-peak train and get some work done on the journey. This leads to the other thing I've suggested on various threads: first class at a reasonable price on the longer commuter routes, with enough space for everyone to use a laptop.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Also the peak service is what drives most of the costs (the number of trains and the amount of track, and a fair chunk of the staff cost), so you don't save much by cutting off-peak. I would expect many people who WFH but travel to an office sometimes to want to do so on an off-peak train and get some work done on the journey. This leads to the other thing I've suggested on various threads: first class at a reasonable price on the longer commuter routes, with enough space for everyone to use a laptop.

Or, given that demand has reduced, stop packing people in and make more trains like the 397s, Southern Electrostars, 185s etc - more tables, decent legroom and window alignment, which both facilitate an enjoyable leisure journey and also mean laptop use is eased.

Pendolino Standard, for instance, is utterly useless for laptops - you can't open it enough to see the screen.

 

[Peter0124]

Does anyone think the Thameslink core frequencies and different destinations will be reduced and never reach its planned 24tph each direction?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Does anyone think the Thameslink core frequencies and different destinations will be reduced and never reach its planned 24tph each direction?

With Thameslink's raison d'etre being commuters (though I suppose there's a bit of airport and bucket-and-spade traffic), one would certainly expect so.

 

[edwin_m]

Or, given that demand has reduced, stop packing people in and make more trains like the 397s, Southern Electrostars, 185s etc - more tables, decent legroom and window alignment, which both facilitate an enjoyable leisure journey and also mean laptop use is eased.

Pendolino Standard, for instance, is utterly useless for laptops - you can't open it enough to see the screen.

The same is true on any other UK train I've been on except the Eurostar which is OK, and the 80x where I didn't have a chance to try it out.

The reason I suggested a "First Class" option was that I think we should keep a cheaper alternative for those who can't WFH (and therefore not on the train either), may be in lower-paying jobs and often have to travel in the peak.

 

[Bertie the bus]

• Leisure travel hit in the short term by people having bought cars, but slowly returning as people remember how little fun sitting in traffic on the M1 is

I think that is wishful thinking. I used to travel by rail, exclusively for leisure, between about 75 and 100 days per year. When lockdown finished and we were allowed to leave home again I switched to car – I’ve always had a car but got out of the habit of driving long distances. I’ve now got back into the habit of driving longer distances and despite traffic increasing significantly over the last 6 months it is still possible to drive past major cities on the motorway during the high peak and not slow down below 70 mph. Remember, if fewer people are commuting by train fewer people will also be commuting by car and rather than remembering how little fun sitting in traffic on the M1 is, I remember how little fun travelling by train can be. I’m in absolutely no rush to return to rail.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The reason I suggested a "First Class" option was that I think we should keep a cheaper alternative for those who can't WFH (and therefore not on the train either), may be in lower-paying jobs and often have to travel in the peak.

There might I suppose be room for a "Business Class" which is still 2+2 but looks more like the Voyager "hybrid coach" layout (i.e. Standard seats but First Class spacing and lots of tables), based on self-upgrading at a small supplement.

I guess the Class 444 First is something like what it might look like.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Given this is obviously Covid-related then surely government policy should be "driven by science". In this case that ought to mean giving employers and employees time to establish any long-term changes to working practices and seeing what demand that actually leaves. This rather feels like a knee-jerk reaction driven by anti-rail idealogues in the Tory party determined to undermine long-term funding for rail generally.

 

[Bald Rick]

Given this is obviously Covid-related then surely government policy should be "driven by science". In this case that ought to mean giving employers and employees time to establish any long-term changes to working practices and seeing what demand that actually leaves. This rather feels like a knee-jerk reaction driven by anti-rail idealogues in the Tory party determined to undermine long-term funding for rail generally.

It could be years before that becomes clear. Meanwhile English TOCs are collectively being supported to the tune of a million quid an hour (according to the numbers in Modern Railways), on top of the grant to Network Rail.

 

[Class 170101]

I think that is wishful thinking. I used to travel by rail, exclusively for leisure, between about 75 and 100 days per year. When lockdown finished and we were allowed to leave home again I switched to car – I’ve always had a car but got out of the habit of driving long distances. I’ve now got back into the habit of driving longer distances and despite traffic increasing significantly over the last 6 months it is still possible to drive past major cities on the motorway during the high peak and not slow down below 70 mph. Remember, if fewer people are commuting by train fewer people will also be commuting by car and rather than remembering how little fun sitting in traffic on the M1 is, I remember how little fun travelling by train can be. I’m in absolutely no rush to return to rail.

From what I have heard here and elsewhere car use has apparently pretty much returned to normal according to the statistics though my view is that it hasn't yet. If car use does get back to normal or higher as people don't use trains then congestion will be a big problem.

For me personally I won't be travelling on public transport much beyond half hour or so whilst mask regulations remain in place.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

It could be years before that becomes clear. Meanwhile English TOCs are collectively being supported to the tune of a million quid an hour (according to the numbers in Modern Railways), on top of the grant to Network Rail.

I agree any long-term changes will take a while to crystalise but the problem with making cuts in the the short term is the inevitably long time it takes to restore them when the capacity is needed once more. And history suggests that such a demand will materialise in due course. That's not to suggest that no action be taken but it's not something that should be rushed into. As for the current level of support there's an awful lot of government support propping up all sorts of economic activity so it's really a question of where you draw the line. I repeat my assertion that this suggestion of cuts is due to an anti-rail agenda held by right wingers in government.

 

[The Ham]

I agree any long-term changes will take a while to crystalise but the problem with making cuts in the the short term is the inevitably long time it takes to restore them when the capacity is needed once more. And history suggests that such a demand will materialise in due course. That's not to suggest that no action be taken but it's not something that should be rushed into. As for the current level of support there's an awful lot of government support propping up all sorts of economic activity so it's really a question of where you draw the line. I repeat my assertion that this suggestion of cuts is due to an anti-rail agenda held by right wingers in government.

Indead we could see cuts to services in 2021 only for them to be reversed in 2022 or 2023 (or even late 2021. The cost saving from such reductions would be minimal.

Personally I'd like to see how things pan out until March before confirming changes for May.

Having said that, in not suggesting that no planning happens until then, but have plans in place for May for 10% fall, 20% fall, 30% fall and 50% fall in passenger numbers. Chances are:
- 10% would be minimal changes (probably the roll back of the lengthening of a few of the less busy peak services)
- 20% would be the removal of most peak hour lengthening and/or some peak hour extra services
- 30% would be the removal of all peak hour improvements and maybe the shortening of some off peak services
- 50% would be the introduction of a 7 day a week Sunday timetable, maybe with a few extra services at what is traditionally the peaks to make it a Saturday timetable frequency.

Please note that the above are simplistic examples.

Then once we know what March is looking like then implement the required plan, some plans may have optional extra services which could be brought back quickly if demand grows quickly and maybe even another timetable change planned for August. Such an extra change could allow for a big increase in return towards normal if a significant roll out of a vaccine is started before May (giving at least 4 months for vaccine rollout, so could fairly easily provide protection for the most at risk).

Given that the UK gets to 75% of over 75's through the NHS (it's possible that it's higher than this for total number as some may go private to get it) without the measures being discussed (7 day vaccine clinics, use of the army, much more focused delivery to those who need it, etc.) as such (and especially as few get their vaccine as early as September and as late as February) 4 months is likely to be enough time to round up significant numbers of people.

With the added bonus of travel bans without a vaccine, that's likely to aid in the take-up (although more so within the 50-75's than the over 75's). Not that many would need that much more of an incentive.

 

[dk1]

The tabloids just love attention grabbing words like 'Slashing' dont they?

 

[Ianno87]

The tabloids just love attention grabbing words like 'Slashing' dont they?

Either that or 'Axed'

 

[The Ham]

I think that is wishful thinking. I used to travel by rail, exclusively for leisure, between about 75 and 100 days per year. When lockdown finished and we were allowed to leave home again I switched to car – I’ve always had a car but got out of the habit of driving long distances. I’ve now got back into the habit of driving longer distances and despite traffic increasing significantly over the last 6 months it is still possible to drive past major cities on the motorway during the high peak and not slow down below 70 mph. Remember, if fewer people are commuting by train fewer people will also be commuting by car and rather than remembering how little fun sitting in traffic on the M1 is, I remember how little fun travelling by train can be. I’m in absolutely no rush to return to rail.

Traffic is at about 90% of what it was (although I'd expect that's likely to be mostly local traffic, rather than motorway traffic). As such there's very little congestion.

As traffic increases congestion does so but not in a linear way. For instance a junction at 90% would see some delay but only a few seconds per vehicle, as it gets to 100% you may see 90 seconds of delay, whilst at 105% you may see 5 minutes of delay.

As such if too many people switch from rail to road for their travel (which tends to be longer distance travel so impacting on a lot more of the road network) we could see delays increase significantly.

I think that many have forgotten how bad the roads actually were, in that before lockdown 1.0 the queues at one roundabout locally were 200m they now (i.e. prior to lockdown 2.0) don't exist, I expect a lot of this is down to my next point.

The other thing to consider is that quite a lot of people had been using secondary or tertiary routes to keep their journey time to a reasonable time, that is now not the case. Meaning that primary routes look nearly as busy, but actually the more minor roads are still much quieter than they were.

 

[Ianno87]

Pendolino Standard, for instance, is utterly useless for laptops - you can't open it enough to see the screen.

Bagsy the table seat!

Does anyone think the Thameslink core frequencies and different destinations will be reduced and never reach its planned 24tph each direction?

Although Thameslink is really a number of 2/4tph patterns on individual routes that happen to combine to 24tph over a short section (making a tube-like frequency in the process)

It will still be useful for each route to keep its 2/4 tph service and distribute people across London.

 

[dk1]

Either that or 'Axed'

They just love it & I go So much drama.

 

[Ianno87]

They just love it & I go So much drama.

Also the old "Railway bosses" chestnut...

 

[dk1]

Also the old "Railway bosses" chestnut...

Not forgetting 'Fat Cats' whenever referring to privatisation.

 

[Bald Rick]

I repeat my assertion that this suggestion of cuts is due to an anti-rail agenda held by right wingers in government.

I can assure you this isn’t the case.

 

[yorksrob]

It could be years before that becomes clear. Meanwhile English TOCs are collectively being supported to the tune of a million quid an hour (according to the numbers in Modern Railways), on top of the grant to Network Rail.

Is this with lockdown loadings, or the 40% or thereabouts of previous loadings achieved without counterproductive national restrictions ?

 

[carriageline]

I would be interested to know what the train loadings are like. The traffic for my commute is nowhere near as quiet as “Lockdown 1”, in fact it’s getting closer to pre-COVID..

 

[bramling]

I would be interested to know what the train loadings are like. The traffic for my commute is nowhere near as quiet as “Lockdown 1”, in fact it’s getting closer to pre-COVID..

I think it is likely to be Home Counties suburban which is bearing the brunt of reduced loadings. The evening peak service at my local station last week was still producing trains with low single figure numbers per carriage, and a one-third-full station car park. Normally packed to rafters. Off peak also quiet, but that is more normal.

No doubt there’s also some quiet Intercity services.

 

[peters]

If services are reduced slightly, let’s hope that ALL the advertised services run, there should be no excuse for ‘lack of resource availability’ I am looking at you TfW !! and Northern, of course!

The Northern franchise has been the one running significantly fewer services than what demand requires on many routes for years. They started to increase services in 2018 but prioritised the wrong routes and never implemented many of the proposed enhancements. At off-peak times Northern running 4 carriage trains carrying fresh air every 30 minutes to Buxton is a joke, when there's so many lines which have well used off-peak services and don't get that level of service.

 

[DustyBin]

I would also expect a trimming of peak-time commuter services, with those recruitment issues making it easier to do so. This would free up London commuter rolling stock as most peak services there are already maximum length. There may be scope to re-deploy it, for example some Southern Electrostars joining similar ones at Southeastern with some Networkers withdrawn. Whatever was released could be mothballed, or if the buildback is over a couple of years there ought to be time to order new stock to cope with it.

Outside the London commuter belt the service provision is much less peaky anyway, and any units released might be better used to lengthen other services, but any significant cutback is likely to reduce service frequency for some people.

Other than the ones converted to 769s, it should be possible, I reckon, to get rid of all the ex-BR stock in the South East, and possibly the Junipers too.

I was actually thinking about starting a related thread in the relevant place, but do we really need all of these new trains? If we're looking at a short-medium term future of reduced demand and reduced funding, would it not be prudent to retain fleets like the retractioned 455's, relatively young Networkers etc? Or, to put it another way, can the railway really afford all of these new 'toys'?

 

[paul1609]

I think that is wishful thinking. I used to travel by rail, exclusively for leisure, between about 75 and 100 days per year. When lockdown finished and we were allowed to leave home again I switched to car – I’ve always had a car but got out of the habit of driving long distances. I’ve now got back into the habit of driving longer distances and despite traffic increasing significantly over the last 6 months it is still possible to drive past major cities on the motorway during the high peak and not slow down below 70 mph. Remember, if fewer people are commuting by train fewer people will also be commuting by car and rather than remembering how little fun sitting in traffic on the M1 is, I remember how little fun travelling by train can be. I’m in absolutely no rush to return to rail.

I think you're right. My only post covid train journey was up to Barmouth in North Wales to buy a motorbike, the intention being that it would be used for my frequent up to 100 mile journeys along the south coast that had been previously on the train. Ive been doing that for a month now. Its great fun, especially with a stop at a half way beauty stop like beachy head for a coffee. Journey time is around half that by rail and fuel cost less than a third of the railcard discounted off peak fare. I even enjoy being stopped at Appledore level crossing and counting the number of passengers on the 4 car Class 171s that pass, yesterday it was 4 on an Eastbourne bound service.
Precovid I was spending 2k a year on leisure rail travel. My railcard expires in Jan. I wont be renewing it until I can take long distance walking trips up North again.

 

[Greybeard33]

It could be years before that becomes clear. Meanwhile English TOCs are collectively being supported to the tune of a million quid an hour (according to the numbers in Modern Railways), on top of the grant to Network Rail.

According to Christian Wolmar's Rail Magazine article (written in August, but still apposite):

Treasury draws up cuts plan for the railways – Christian Wolmar

If a second wave reduces passenger numbers further then the Treasury will force the Department for Transport to implement widespread closures across the network.

These will include many regional services largely those serving low densely populated areas notably in the North East, Kent, Cornwall and East Anglia. There will also be reductions to some services into major conurbations where numbers of passengers remain low as car use has increased. Branch lines are also being targeted and while commuter trains into London will be maintained, service frequencies will be reduced. Emergency legislation is being considered in order to allow the temporary closure of lines. The Treasury, whose top civil servants feel they were forced into allowing the present high levels of support for the industry, want to see services reduced in order to match levels of demand.

There is no guarantee that any services that are cut would be reinstated once a vaccine or a cure for the disease is found. That will depend on how well surviving services are performing.

There are fears that mothballing modern rolling stock could lead to rapid deterioration to its sensitive electronics as a result of condensation. Major cutbacks in employment levels particularly, backroom Network Rail staff, guards and even drivers are being considered

Although clearly ministers will have to brace themselves for a major public outcry if there are cuts to the railway, they will point to the low passenger numbers and the alternative demands on public money, notably health and education.

It seems to me that lightly used rural and branch lines that have no freight traffic will be especially at risk of mothballing. The Treasury would see this as giving significant savings in infrastructure operational and maintenance costs, with minimal negative impact on overall national economic activity.

 

[MikeWM]

I *really* don't want to call for cuts, but I do wonder for example if Cambridge really justifies an all-day 7 trains an hour service to London at the moment (2 x 12 carriages and 5 x 8 carriages, I assume) given the lack of commuter, student and tourist traffic.

I suppose it has already been reduced from 8 an hour with the GN timetable being based on Saturday (so 1 'stopper' terminates at Royston) but if the options end up being as blunt as to either pare this back further for a while, or close branch lines around Norfolk and Suffolk, I know which I'd prefer.