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[Richard Scott]

Thank you for telling me about your local school, appreciated.

I’ve tried to catch up with the threads, but I’m struggling a bit to find out what sectors people believe have caused cases/hospitalisations/deaths to rise again. I’ve read that hospitality is being scapegoated, is that true of schools and universities too?

It would seem that way, in local school most cases in one year group has been two so far. Unfortunately seems to be picking up in local area so may be expecting more. They had no cases until about 3/4 weeks ago.

 

[sjpowermac]

It would seem that way, in local school most cases in one year group has been two so far. Unfortunately seems to be picking up in local area so may be expecting more. They had no cases until about 3/4 weeks ago.

Again, many thanks for the information about your local area.


Do you know of any official analysis of which settings are the major sources of infection?

 

[yorkie]

I work in education and I've spoken to various people who work in education (on and off this forum) and when a student tests positive, there doesn't tend to be any evidence to say they got it at school and the contacts that are identified within school don't tend to go on to test positive or develop symptoms based on what we know.

That's the general pattern based on what I have experienced and people I know have experienced; students and teachers who do test positive tend to have likely got it outside a school setting.

Do you know of any official analysis of which settings are the major sources of infection?

An analysis of places visited was posted on here but it does not analyse where the infection is likely to have occurred.

For example supermarkets were top of the list, however most people visit supermarkets routinely, so that didn't really divulge anything we didn't already know!

 

[Richard Scott]

Again, many thanks for the information about your local area.


Do you know of any official analysis of which settings are the major sources of infection?

To be honest the infections are quite random, not a particular area, street, year group or friendship group. Seems nothing to link them so must be family members picking it up at work or from their friendship groups mirroring what Yorkie said in above post. Hope that answers the query but don't have any official information so just me speculating here.

 

[sjpowermac]

I work in education and I've spoken to various people who work in education (on and off this forum) and when a student tests positive, there doesn't tend to be any evidence to say they got it at school and the contacts that are identified within school don't tend to go on to test positive or develop symptoms based on what we know.

That's the general pattern based on what I have experienced and people I know have experienced; students and teachers who do test positive tend to have likely got it outside a school setting.


An analysis of places visited was posted on here but it does not analyse where the infection is likely to have occurred.

For example supermarkets were top of the list, however most people visit supermarkets routinely, so that didn't really divulge anything we didn't already know!

Many thanks for the reply.

Certainly school staff who are in senior or middle leader positions are very keen to encourage the ‘no transmission in school’ narrative.

I read the survey listing supermarkets and thought it somewhat odd.

 

[yorkie]

They may be exaggerating slightly but based on what I've seen/heard, I think either a) they're either not far wrong, or b) something like 90%+ of cases are asymptomatic.

 

[sjpowermac]

They may be exaggerating slightly but based on what I've seen/heard, I think either a) they're either not far wrong, or b) something like 90%+ of cases are asymptomatic.

But again, with respect, that’s hearsay and not particularly scientific.

As I’ve mentioned previously, I absolutely support the schools being open and operating as near to normal as possible. It does seem really odd though that there isn’t any official data on transmission/outbreaks in them.

 

[yorkie]

But again, with respect, that’s hearsay and not particularly scientific.

As I’ve mentioned previously, I absolutely support the schools being open and operating as near to normal as possible. It does seem really odd though that there isn’t any official data on transmission/outbreaks in them.

How can you find out where someone was infected?

If it was possible to know exactly where each person was infected, the stats would be very interesting and it would be a real game-changer. But, given the nature of viruses, I do not think this will ever be possible.

 

[sjpowermac]

How can you find out where someone was infected?

If it was possible to know exactly where each person was infected, the stats would be very interesting and it would be a real game-changer. But, given the nature of viruses, I do not think this will ever be possible.

My apologies, from your earlier posts I (wrongly) assumed that you felt it was possible to know where an infection took place

That's the general pattern based on what I have experienced and people I know have experienced; students and teachers who do test positive tend to have likely got it outside a school setting.

In this document from 07.08.2020

[Withdrawn] [Withdrawn] COVID-19: epidemiological definitions of outbreaks and clusters in particular settings

www.gov.uk

an ‘outbreak’ is defined as:

Two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within 14 days, and one of:

• identified direct exposure between at least 2 of the test-confirmed cases in that setting (for example under one metre face to face, or spending more than 15 minutes within 2 metres) during the infectious period of one of the cases
• when there is no sustained local community transmission - absence of an alternative source of infection outside the setting for the initially identified cases

Do you know of any statistics that have been recorded on outbreaks (or clusters) by setting? It seems a strange omission if such statistics haven’t been compiled in line with the government definitions.

 

[Bantamzen]

I’ve been a tad busy of late, so I’m somewhat out of the virus loop. Perhaps one of you would be kind enough to give an update on the predictions that you made in the late summer?

For the avoidance of doubt, from about May onwards I fully supported the re-opening of schools.

Well allow me to help:

Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

 

[sjpowermac]

Well allow me to help:

Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

In the meantime we shall see, as the virus spreads further through our population, so hospitalisations & deaths reduce. Its all there in the data.

As I mentioned, I’m somewhat out of the loop as regards the virus.

Perhaps you would be kind enough to enlighten me as to how the rising curve from September onwards shows hospitalisations and deaths reducing?

 

[Bantamzen]

As I mentioned, I’m somewhat out of the loop as regards the virus.

Perhaps you would be kind enough to enlighten me as to how the rising curve from September onwards shows hospitalisations and deaths reducing?

If you take a closer look at the data you'll see that the rate of hospitalisations / deaths versus infections is reducing as the virus passes through society.

 

[sjpowermac]

If you take a closer look at the data you'll see that the rate of hospitalisations / deaths versus infections is reducing as the virus passes through society.

Oh I don’t need to look anymore closely at the graphs to see that you are backtracking from your original statement that made no mention of rates.

Here, for one final time, is what you said:

In the meantime we shall see, as the virus spreads further through our population, so hospitalisations & deaths reduce. Its all there in the data.

Would you care to admit that you were completely incorrect?

 

[Bantamzen]

Oh I don’t need to look anymore closely at the graphs to see that you are backtracking from your original statement that made no mention of rates.

Here, for one final time, is what you said:



Would you care to admit that you were completely incorrect?

I'm not backtracking at all. As the virus spreads through our society, hospitalisation & mortalities will reduce. Maybe you should take a little more time to consider the data?

 

[sjpowermac]

I'm not backtracking at all. As the virus spreads through our society, hospitalisation & mortalities will reduce. Maybe you should take a little more time to consider the data?

But you were claiming ‘it’s all there in the data’ back in August and yet, certainly in absolute terms, hospitalisations and mortalities increased during the Autumn. What gives?

 

[Bantamzen]

But you were claiming ‘it’s all there in the data’ back in August and yet, certainly in absolute terms, hospitalisations and mortalities increased during the Autumn. What gives?

And it was. To be honest you are the one bringing up September, I didn't claim there would not be a rise for a while just that as the virus spreads through society so hospitalisations and deaths would reduce. And if you look at the data, well figure it out for yourself....

 

[sjpowermac]

And it was. To be honest you are the one bringing up September, I didn't claim there would not be a rise for a while just that as the virus spreads through society so hospitalisations and deaths would reduce. And if you look at the data, well figure it out for yourself....

Ah, so now you’ve added to what you said back in August. You certainly didn’t make it clear that you believed there could be a ‘rise for awhile’.

I’ll take that as being as near to an admission that you were wrong as you are likely to give.

 

[Bantamzen]

Ah, so now you’ve added to what you said back in August. You certainly didn’t make it clear that you believed there could be a ‘rise for awhile’.

I’ll take that as being as near to an admission that you were wrong as you are likely to give.

Take what you like, you'll be very wrong keeping in mind you changed your question mid-thread...

 

[sjpowermac]

Take what you like, you'll be very wrong keeping in mind you changed your question mid-thread...

Take what you want, you are the one who has altered their stance.

I predicted that from September onwards there would be an increase in infections and that seems to be exactly what happened, along with an increase in hospitalisations and deaths.

In September I claimed that the measures put in place by schools would do little to stop the spread of the virus in those settings. I’ve asked an honest question as to whether there is any data on outbreaks in different settings, but it seems that there isn’t.

Perhaps though, we should start afresh. I predict that from no later than early January there will be a further increase in hospitalisations and deaths. What do you think will happen?

 

[Bantamzen]

Take what you want, you are the one who has altered their stance.

I predicted that from September onwards there would be an increase in infections and that seems to be exactly what happened, along with an increase in hospitalisations and deaths.

In September I claimed that the measures put in place by schools would do little to stop the spread of the virus in those settings. I’ve asked an honest question as to whether there is any data on outbreaks in different settings, but it seems that there isn’t.

Perhaps though, we should start afresh. I predict that from no later than early January there will be a further increase in hospitalisations and deaths. What do you think will happen?

For the record I never mentioned September, which was the point of my earlier posts. But hey, keep on slapping yourself on the back, I'm sure a medal is in the post.

 

[sjpowermac]

For the record I never mentioned September, which was the point of my earlier posts. But hey, keep on slapping yourself on the back, I'm sure a medal is in the post.

Would you like to clarify for us when your prediction will kick in?

As Keynes said, “in the long run, we are all dead”...

 

[Darandio]

Perhaps though, we should start afresh. I predict that from no later than early January there will be a further increase in hospitalisations and deaths. What do you think will happen?

I think that's a fairly easy one to predict, certainly with the Christmas effect taking hold so no medals for you on this one i'm afraid.

It could be different this time around and I use the word could with scepticisim. The next two weeks are critical in terms of the vaccination programme to have as many of those at risk gaining some level of immunity by early January. If the vaccine is as successful as stated in these groups and a fairly decent number are vaccinated then although positive tests may see an upward trend in early January we might not see as much of a surge in hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[sjpowermac]

I think that's a fairly easy one to predict, certainly with the Christmas effect taking hold so no medals for you on this one i'm afraid.

It could be different this time around and I use the word could with scepticisim. The next two weeks are critical in terms of the vaccination programme to have as many of those at risk gaining some level of immunity by early January. If the vaccine is as successful as stated in these groups and a fairly decent number are vaccinated then although positive tests may see an upward trend in early January we might not see as much of a surge in hospitalisations and deaths.

Dream on...

Despite what seems to be the consensus of opinion on this thread, I do wonder if schools have actually played at least some part in spreading the virus.

I predict that this, combined with further mixing of households over Christmas, will lead either to ‘Lockdown 3.0’ in early January, or much of the country being placed into Tier 3.

 

[yorkie]

Dream on...

Despite what seems to be the consensus of opinion on this thread, I do wonder if schools have actually played at least some part in spreading the virus.

I predict that this, combined with further mixing of households over Christmas, will lead either to ‘Lockdown 3.0’ in early January, or much of the country being placed into Tier 3.

My prediction is that if we do get a 3rd lockdown, education will not be affected, and also that this time sports and extracurricular activities will be allowed to continue.

 

[DB]

My prediction is that if we do get a 3rd lockdown, education will not be affected, and also that this time sports and extracurricular activities will be allowed to continue.

And it will be even more ignored than the last one! If it happens, I rather expect that other than where things are enforced (e.g. forcing businesses to close) a large proportion of people will take no notice at all of any restrictions.

 

[sjpowermac]

My prediction is that if we do get a 3rd lockdown, education will not be affected, and also that this time sports and extracurricular activities will be allowed to continue.

I agree and quite right too that education will not be affected. I’m not arguing at all that it should be.

 

[Bantamzen]

Would you like to clarify for us when your prediction will kick in?

As Keynes said, “in the long run, we are all dead”...

Who is "us", as far as I can see it is only you questioning me? Anyway would I like to, yes. Can I, no. Unless of course you can point me to some specific data on deaths where covid is likely to have been a major contributing factor & not just mandated by legislation to be recorded as a possible contributor (i.e. as a result of a positive test within 28 of death). Also I will need data on the numbers of urgent & routine treatments undertaken within the NHS. All these datasets will need to start from the beginning of this year.

That we can start to crunch some numbers based on infection, hospitalisation & deaths as a direct/major result of covid & then line those datasets up against the return of children & students to education to see what impact this may have had on hospitalisation & deaths. I assume this is what you are wanting to analyse?

 

[sjpowermac]

Who is "us", as far as I can see it is only you questioning me? Anyway would I like to, yes. Can I, no. Unless of course you can point me to some specific data on deaths where covid is likely to have been a major contributing factor & not just mandated by legislation to be recorded as a possible contributor (i.e. as a result of a positive test within 28 of death). Also I will need data on the numbers of urgent & routine treatments undertaken within the NHS. All these datasets will need to start from the beginning of this year.

That we can start to crunch some numbers based on infection, hospitalisation & deaths as a direct/major result of covid & then line those datasets up against the return of children & students to education to see what impact this may have had on hospitalisation & deaths. I assume this is what you are wanting to analyse?

Here is your post from August:

Do be hurt, you need to level up again for those. In the meantime we shall see, as the virus spreads further through our population, so hospitalisations & deaths reduce. Its all there in the data.

Given that at the time we were discussing the full reopening of schools in September, I assumed you were telling me that during September, you felt that hospitalisations and deaths would reduce.

You've since clarified that you were not referring to September and I have asked you when you believe your prediction of hospitalisations and deaths reducing will happen. You've now given a reply where I think you are saying that you need some more data to back up your claim.

What I see from the graphs you link to is that hospitalisations and deaths increased from about September onwards.They decreased towards the end of November after a few weeks of lockdown.

What I also see is that the gradient of the curves is more shallow than back in March/April. You can argue as to why that might be, but I think that's probably because of some of the restrictions that have been put in place, such as more people working from home.

What is it that you see in the graphs you have referred to?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Dec 2020 ==

And it will be even more ignored than the last one! If it happens, I rather expect that other than where things are enforced (e.g. forcing businesses to close) a large proportion of people will take no notice at all of any restrictions.

I’ve no idea what Lockdown 2.0 was like where you live. Where I live it was actually very well observed, certainly the city centre was very quiet. As to whether people were mixing households, I’ve no idea.

 

[DB]

I’ve no idea what Lockdown 2.0 was like where you live. Where I live it was actually very well observed, certainly the city centre was very quiet. As to whether people were mixing households, I’ve no idea.

With a lot of the shops shut, there would inevitably be fewer people in city centres, but certainly of those I saw (including Leeds) it was quieter than usual but certainly not 'very quiet'. Numbers also appeared to steadily increase after an initial dip of a few days. The trains were likewise down a bit on numbers, but not by a huge amount. The number of people out and about locally appeared no different form normal - they must have been going somewhere, and as pubs, etc, were closed it seems a reasonable assumption that the 'somewhere' was in many cases other people's houses.

 

[sjpowermac]

With a lot of the shops shut, there would inevitably be fewer people in city centres, but certainly of those I saw (including Leeds) it was quieter than usual but certainly not 'very quiet'. Numbers also appeared to steadily increase after an initial dip of a few days. The trains were likewise down a bit on numbers, but not by a huge amount. The number of people out and about locally appeared no different form normal - they must have been going somewhere, and as pubs, etc, were closed it seems a reasonable assumption that the 'somewhere' was in many cases other people's houses.

Thank you for your reply. That does seem to confirm that it was patchy and varied greatly from city to city. Where I am the trains were almost empty, passenger numbers in single figures were not uncommon. I agree with you though about the cars.